Cause of by-election
Sitting Liberal MP Rory Amon resigned from parliament on 30 August 2024 after being charged with a number of crimes.
Margin – LIB 0.7% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Rory Amon, since 2023.
Geography
Northern beaches of Sydney. The seat covers the former Pittwater council area and northern parts of the former Warringah council area. The seat covers Narrabeen, Warriewood, Elanora Heights, Mona Vale, Newport, Avalon and Scotland Island.
History
The seat of Pittwater has existed since the 1973 election. It has been dominated by the Liberal Party throughout that period. The Liberal Party has won the seat at every general election, although it was won by an independent at the 2005 by-election, and he held the seat until 2007.
The seat was first won in 1973 by Liberal Premier Robert Askin. He had first been elected to Parliament in 1950 as the member for the new seat of Collaroy. He became Leader of the Opposition in 1959, and ended 24 years of Labor rule in NSW when he became Premier at the 1965 election.
Collaroy was abolished in 1973, and Askin moved to the new seat of Pittwater, covering much of the same territory as his former seat. Askin retired as Premier and from Parliament in 1975.
The 1975 Pittwater by-election was won by Liberal candidate Bruce Webster. He held the seat until 1978.
Pittwater was won in 1978 by Liberal candidate Max Smith. He won re-election in 1981 and 1984, but after winning a third term in 1984 he resigned from the Liberal Party to sit as an independent. He resigned from Parliament in 1986.
The 1986 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Jim Longley. He served as a minister from 1992 to 1995, and retired in 1996.
Another by-election was held in 1996, and was won by John Brogden. He was promoted to the Coalition frontbench after the 1999 election. In March 2002, he challenged Opposition Leader Kerry Chikarovski and won a narrow party room vote. He led the Liberal Party to a landslide defeat in 2003, but later in the term appeared on track to win the next election.
Following the retirement of Premier Bob Carr in 2005, Brogden was exposed for offensive comments he made about the retiring Premier’s wife, and he was forced to resign as Liberal leader. Shortly after, he made an unsuccessful suicide attempt, and resigned as Member for Pittwater.
At the following by-election, the Liberals were hit hard by accusations that Brogden’s opponents in the party had pursued him and brought about the end of his political career. The seat was won by independent candidate Alex McTaggart, the Mayor of Pittwater.
At the 2007 election, McTaggart lost to Liberal candidate Rob Stokes, a former advisor to John Brogden. Stokes was re-elected three times.
Stokes served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the O’Farrell government, and served as a minister from 2014 until 2023.
Stokes retired in 2023, and was succeeded by Northern Beaches councillor Rory Amon.
- Doug Rennie (Libertarian)
- Jacqui Scruby (Independent)
- Georgia Ryburn (Liberal)
Assessment
The Liberal Party very narrowly won this seat in 2023 and will be going into this by-election in a weak position. The independent candidate Scruby has a good chance at winning.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rory Amon | Liberal | 22,137 | 44.7 | -12.6 |
| Jacqui Scruby | Independent | 17,754 | 35.9 | +35.9 |
| Jeffrey Quinn | Labor | 5,039 | 10.2 | -2.4 |
| Hilary Green | Greens | 3,386 | 6.8 | -8.5 |
| Craig Law | Sustainable Australia | 1,195 | 2.4 | -1.3 |
| Informal | 1,139 | 2.3 |
2023 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rory Amon | Liberal | 23,365 | 50.7 | |
| Jacqui Scruby | Independent | 22,759 | 49.3 |
Booths in Pittwater have been split into four areas based around key suburbs. From north to south these are: Avalon, Newport, Mona Vale, Narrabeen.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in Mona Vale and Narrabeen, while Scruby won a majority in Avalon and Newport.
The ALP came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.8% in Avalon to 11.3% in Narrabeen.
| Voter group | ALP prim % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Narrabeen | 11.3 | 52.5 | 9,983 | 20.2 |
| Mona Vale | 10.7 | 50.2 | 5,587 | 11.3 |
| Avalon | 7.8 | 40.1 | 4,821 | 9.7 |
| Newport | 9.1 | 45.5 | 4,386 | 8.9 |
| Pre-poll | 9.5 | 52.7 | 16,647 | 33.6 |
| Other votes | 11.7 | 53.9 | 8,087 | 16.3 |
Election results in Pittwater at the 2023 New South Wales state election
Toggle between two-candidates-preferred votes (Liberal vs Independent) and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidate Jacqui Scruby and Labor.
My money is that the Libs run Gencher to replace Amon, now Gencher is at a loose end post forms-debacle.
A reminder to everyone to be very careful what you post regarding the charges against Amon. I am in a mood to do some blocking and it won’t be a temporary block.
@ben yes I agree 100%
I won’t be commenting on whether he is guilty or not, but I think he made the right decision to resign and make way for a new candidate.
I think the criteria for the Liberal candidate for this seat would be:
* No criminal record
* Moderate
* Popular locally
* Can appeal to teals
They may try to select a female candidate too since they are without a female MP in the Northern Beaches.
Whether Rob Stokes runs or not is a good question. I would love for him to be back in Pittwater, he’s an excellent MP, but he would also be an excellent candidate for Mackellar and he could win that seat.
I doubt Jason Falinski would consider running given that he lost Mackellar in 2022 and he recently served as the President of the NSW Liberals.
Interestingly Pittwater voted Yes to the Voice and teal federally.
@ Nether Portal
I agree with you. The Upper North Shore and the Northern Beaches have never had a female state MP and given this is Liberal heartland, important for a candidate that would be one day leadership material, What do you feel about Natalie Ward moving to Pittwater from the Upper house? I mentioned this on the Davidson thread recently.
@Nimalan I would 100% support Natalie Ward but I don’t think she lives in the electorate and therefore it would be risky since she would be parachuted in and a teal might win the seat anyway. She would be better off running in the seat she lives in (Davidson I think).
Pittwater will never elect an outsider. The Libs have tried and failed that. Insular peninsula will only elect a genuine local.
Also Natalie Ward would likely have the sense to not run an election while the Lib brand is so down locally.
Rob Stokes would be a very competitive Liberal candidate. He was considering running federally in Mackeller. If he does run and wins, I reckon he’d be a threat to Mark Speakman’s leadership, following the council nominations fiasco.
Jacqui Scruby (a teal) might run since she has already registered for 2027. Sophie Scamps might want her to run to test out the teal appeal on the Northern Beaches.
Labor don’t have a candidate in either Epping or Hornsby. I suspect it’s even unlikelier there’ll be one in Pittwater as they didn’t even finish in the final two in 2023.
If Labor sits out, Scruby will have a wider path to victory especially if she can court Labor voters and disaffected and disenfranchised Liberal voters. With OPV, many Labor votes exhausted and she missed out narrowly.
As for the by-election date, the writ hasn’t been issued yet for Epping nor Hornsby. According to NSWEC, this is planned to be on 27th September, for 19th October election. Postal vote applications open Monday 16th September. With that timeline in mind, you could very well do Pittwater on 19th October and hold a ‘Super Saturday’.
Another consideration is the finely balanced numbers in the LA. With 3 vacant Opposition seats and sitting days coming up, that effectively makes 90 in the house, with Greg Piper as speaker, Labor at 45 for an effective majority of 1. I’d strongly suspect Greg Piper would take that into consideration but as this is a recent development, give him time to consider the options.
As for candidates, not sure but agree with @Votante that Labor wouldn’t run here to give Scruby the best chance. I would think Labor would run in Epping as that’s the best chance for them picking up a seat, which in turn, would mean less of the crossbench to rely on.
Tom, you were warned.
They could squeeze in another by-election for October 19 and this would minimise fuss.
I agree that out of the three vacant seats, Labor would most likely run in Epping as its margin is lower but it’s not so winnable. Labor can test the waters for the federal election, even though the AEC-proposed Bennelong is outside of Epping (I believe). Even with that in mind, I’d say it’s unlikely Labor will run in either. The Greens have candidates for Epping and Hornsby already.
@NP no criminal record is actually a legal requirement ot run fro parliament and Ben 100% agree everyone is entitled to the presumption of innocence regardless of the crime alleged
@votante labor will probably not waste the money because a swing to the libs will be bad for the Minns govt
The link for this by-election under the electoral calendar section redirects to Epping instead of this.
If the independent stands again (which is quite likely), this seat might actually fall. The Liberals really aren’t in a position to do well at this point in time, considering the recent chaos with the councils, and the circumstances associated with the former member. If the independent doesn’t stand, it’s an easy Liberal retain.
I’m inclined to suggest that this is the most likely of the three seats up for election to fall, as I can’t see Epping or Hornsby changing in any circumstance.
Re: candidate suggestions for Liberals.
According to Sky News, Rob Stokes was approached to run but “knocked back the offer.” The other strong candidate being touted, Georgia Ryburn, has been mentioned as “…weighing up whether to run for the seat for the Liberal party. The Rory Amon charges may give her pause for thought.” (Quotes from the article.)
I would think Georgia will probably focus on her federal tilt as Pittwater doesn’t really cover her power-base while the federal seat has more association. I agree with other commenters that Gencher would be a contender and I think it was SMH or ABC that mentioned one of the female MLC’s looking to have a tilt to transfer into Pittwater (probably the best low-risk option as the Liberals can then re-appointed back to Leg Co in the event of a loss, and neutralizing any issue around female representation that may be raised by Jacqui Scruby running).
@Nether Portal: Page 328 of the Register of Disclosures by Members of the Legislative Council for the period 1 July 2022 to 30 June 2023 shows Natalie Ward lives in the Northern Beaches LGA, but the specific suburb of her principal place of residence is unknown, which means she may or may not live in Pittwater, but certainly does not live in Davidson. https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lc/tabledpapers/Pages/tabled-paper-details.aspx?pk=186738
Jacqui Scruby has already registered to contest the next NSW state election. https://elections.nsw.gov.au/getmedia/bb91bb24-4449-4cd4-ab1e-423f14ae4dbe/2027-state-election-register-of-candidates.pdf
Considering Scruby is likely to recontest and Labor is likely to sit out the Pittwater by-election (which reduces exhausted preferences that prevented Scruby from winning in 2023), the by-election will be very challenging for the Liberal Party.
If Jacqui Scruby recontests, the only way the Liberals will retain the seat is to run a high profile candidate that fits the criteria (my criteria is very similar to yours):
* No criminal record and not under investigation by the Police
* Moderate
* Popular locally
* Can appeal to teal voters
Natalie Ward presumably fits the criteria, and you can be sure that most Liberal-leaning voters in Pittwater don’t want to deny Ward a chance to become the NSW Liberal leader. I don’t think Rob Stokes will run in his old seat again.
I think the Deputy Mayor of Northern Beaches Georgia Ryburn will also be a great candidate. Ryburn represents the exact demographic that the Liberal Party needs to win back or hold: Professional and tertiary educated millennial women.
@Politics_Obsessed: Although the Manly Ward she represents doesn’t overlap with Pittwater, she has still served the people of Pittwater as Deputy Mayor. Ryburn has also been encouraged to run for the federal seat of Mackellar, which does not overlap with her ward either. I think she knows well that the state seat of Pittwater is much more winnable than the federal seat of Mackellar, not only because the former doesn’t have a sitting independent MP while the latter does, but also the federal Liberals being much more conservative than their state counterparts.
Regarding Natalie Ward, I’m not sure if she would want to leave her safe LC seat to go run in a marginal seat. There is probably the insurance option of getting appointed back in if she loses.
The Liberal brand is quite tarnished now. On the flip side, the Liberals could retain as voters want someone to fill the void of a Liberal-less Council or to counter Minns Labor.
Scrubby on X wrote that she is “considering”. To be fair, she only found out about the by-election a few days ago.
i think the teal will probably win this this time around but liberal regain in 2027
She could be waiting to find out who the Liberal candidate is. Mark Speakman is reportedly asking Stokes to run.
@votante hes declined that offer. hes also reportedly declined the offer to run in mackellar
There is no chance Ward will run here. If she wanted to move she would’ve chosen Hornsby or Epping. Scruby should win this seat comfortably. Liberals will run one of their council candidates and try to regroup for 2027.
the libs might have a few former councillors to choose as a candidate for this one since they won’t be standing for local government
Expect that Scrubby will win if she runs again. Doubt that the libs could win unless Stokes runs or some other superstar
The liberal candidate vetting committee obviously were not diligent enough..But maybe it is not solely their fault because Mr Amoun would have been interviewed by the police he must have known what could turn up…
But it appears he did not advise the liberal party
Natalie Ward, to my knowledge, lives in Curl Curl area.
The Libs would be silly to run someone outside Pittwater. Generally parachutes dont work in Pittwater (the Paul Nicholau by-election springs to mind where he lost to McTaggart after Brodgen stepped down).
I think they will run a bit of a placeholder campaign as they know the Liberal chips are down between Amon and the forms debacle, let Scruby or whoever falls out of the woodwork have their 2 years, and aim to rewin it at the state election when everyone is sick of Labor.
Probably agree Anonycat, Scruby if she were to run and win the seat at a by-election could be seen as Alex McTaggart v2.0 where a stronger Liberal candidate in the mould of Rob Stokes is able to recover the seat at the next general election.
@Yoh An Rob Stokes might be like Barry Collier. He lost Miranda at the 2011 state election, regained it for Labor in the 2013 by-election and didn’t contest in the 2015 state election and the Liberals regained Miranda.
I know Rob Stokes never actually lost but what I mean is he could just serve until the end of this term and then not recontest in 2027 because he might want to run for Mackellar (which he absolutely should).
Early words on the grounds for potential Liberal Pre-Selection:
*Natasha Maclaren-Jones (current MLC, ran for pre-selection last time but was beaten by Rory Amon. Would be the strongest political operator but factionally unaligned with the seat. Is originally from the Northern Beaches but has spent more time in the Southern Highlands)
*Amanda Choularton (daughter of local power-broker Stephen Choularton. Factionally backed but has never been that interested, IMO)
*Michael Gencher (Current councillor, could have the best balance)
*Kristina Cimino (Former Staffer to Gladys and Andrew Constance, currently works for TfNSW)
IMO, my pick at this stage would be Gencher beating Choularton.
Barry Collier made a decision to retire in 2011. But recontested his old seat when the vacancy unexpected occurred. He of course was the only one who could win the seat. I don’t know his reasons for standing or declining to remain. maybe he just stood to help Labor.
Rob Stokes made a decision not to contest his seat at the 2023 election… he would be unlikely to stand just as a place holder.
@NP hes already knocked back both Pittwater and Mackellar
I hear that some of the liberal councillors let down by the nomination bungle are being touted as potentiall rnners
Election date – 19 October. Same day as the other two state by-elections and the ACT election.
@Votante September and October are going to be crowded.
* 14 September: NSW local elections
* 19 October: ACT general election, NSW state by-elections (Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater)
* 26 October: Queensland state election, Victorian local elections
So that’s seven elections within two months: two state/territory elections, two local elections and three state by-elections.
2024 will go down in history for the Tally Room by the way with all these elections:
* 2 March: Dunkley by-election
* 16 March: Queensland Super Saturday: local elections, state by-elections (Inala, Ipswich West)
* 23 March: Tasmanian state election
* 23 March: Dunstan from Liberals
* 13 April: Cook by-election
* 4 May: Tasmanian Legislative Council elections
* 22 June: Northern Tablelands state by-election
* 24 August: Northern Territory general election
* 14 September: NSW local elections
* 19 September: ACT general election, state by-elections (Epping, Hornsby, Pittwater)
* 26 October: Queensland state election, Victorian local elections
Not to mention:
* 29 May: South African general election and provincial elections
* 30 June: French legislative election (first round)
* 4 July: UK general election
* 7 July: French legislative election (second round)
* 5 November: US elections
Jacqui Scruby is in. She has just declared her candidacy.
@Votante and given the mess NSW Liberals are in with the disgraced Amon and also their own issues with the council elections, I could see this as a walk-in-the-park victory for Scruby, particularly given that Pittwater is one of the stronger teal sections in Mackellar and she would’ve likely won it in 2023 had there been compulsory preferential voting in NSW.
@Tommo9 I’m leaning towards thinking this will be a teal gain.
@NP im saying that t but it doesnt realy effect the govt as the liberals are still in opposition and labor has no chance here.
Can confirm that Georgia Ryburn will be running for the Liberal Party.
Georgia Ryburn has never lived in the Pittwater electorate in her entire life. ABC says she currently lives in the electorate of Davidson. The ABC video can be watched on ABC https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-12/nsw-liberals-select-candidate-to-run-in-pittwater/104345864
Chris, I can tell you from experience that no-one will care about that, as long as she has lived in the Northern Beaches her whole life. Jacquie Scruby grew up in Mosman, so this is a non-issue for the election.
It’s not a repeat of Paul Nicolau, at least.
Hawkeye, so does that mean Paul Nicolau as the liberal candidate for the 2005 by election was a total outsider (not even living in the local council area). If so, then Georgia Ryburn as a more local candidate should be able to poll better and still has a good chance of retaining the seat for the Liberals.
I think the recent Council election results perhaps give some hints about this race. IMO Sunny Singh did very well in the Council seat of Pittwater, far better than I expected given recent political events. VDL did very well in the Council seat of Narrabeen, which incorporates part of the state seat of Pittwater. I had initially pegged this race as a bit of a laid down mesere for Scruby, but evidently whatever frustrations the voters may have with recent events concerning the Liberal Party would not seem to have manifested in instead voting for a centrist independent.
That said, it can be a little more challenging to directly transpose results from a Council election to other races. Both Scruby and Ryburn are stronger candidates than their respective counterparts in the Council election. Pre-selecting Ryburn was probably the Liberal’s strongest option, when a lot of their recent preselection choices have badly failed to read the mood of the room (and seem to have heavily favoured internal networking over other factors like… electability…).
How this race plays out will depend a bit also on who is in the race, and extent to which their votes are exhausting in an OPV race.
A big impact is the opv voting system.. irrespective of the ex mp’s “troubles” on Federal figures Pittwater would have been an easy teal win but opv definitely benefits the liberals at a state level
@Yoh An – Paul Nicolau is from Lane Cove and was parachuted in as reward for his fundraising services. So yes, he was a complete outsider with no connection to the northern beaches.
To the person who keeps trying to post the same defamatory thing about Georgia Ryburn in the comments under different names – do you think I’m stupid?
People must be very careful
They can be sued for defamation re posts here