Napier – NZ 2014

NAT 11.81% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Chris Tremain, since 2005.

Geography
Eastern New Zealand. The electorate covers the city of Napier and rural areas further north. The electorate stretches north until just short of Gisborne. The electorate covers the entirety of Napier and Wairoa council areas and parts of Gisborne and Hastings council areas.

Redistribution
No changes were made to Napier’s southern or western boundaries. The northern boundary previously aligned with the Wairoa-Gisborne council border, before shifting north in the recent redistribution. These changes increased the margin for National from 11.1% to 11.8%.

History
The electorate of Napier has existed continuously since 1861. The seat was dominated by Labour for much of the 20th century, with Labour winning all but one election from 1928 to 2005, losing the seat in 1951. Labour lost the seat in 2005, and the seat has been National-held for the last three terms.

Labour’s Geoff Braybrooke held Napier from 1981 until his retirement in 2002.

Russell Fairbrother won Napier for Labour in 2002. In 2005, he lost Napier to National candidate Chris Tremain, but was re-elected on Labour’s list. He did not stand on the party list in 2008, and lost a bid for re-election in Napier.

Chris Tremain has held Napier since 2005. He was promoted to the ministry in 2011 and served in the Cabinet from 2012 to 2014.

In addition to Fairbrother, National candidate Anne Tolley won a list seat in 1999 after running in Napier. She lost her seat in 2002, but has held the neighbouring seat of East Coast since 2005.

Donna Awatere Huata won an ACT list seat at three elections: in 1996, 1999 and 2002. She ran in Napier in 2002. She was expelled from ACT in 2003 and removed from the Parliament in 2014.

Candidates
Sitting Member for Napier Chris Tremain is not running for re-election.

• Paul Bailey (Green #38)
• Garth McVicar (Conservative #3)
• Stuart Nash (Labour)
• Mary O’Neill (Alliance)
• Barry Pulford (Democrats #17)
• Wayne Walford (National #63)

Assessment
Napier was a traditional Labour seat, but has shifted substantially towards National, who now hold a majority of the electorate vote. Still, the current 11.8% margin is a decline from the 25.8% margin after the 2008 election. Without an incumbent MP, National may be vulnerable to losing part of their electorate vote, but only a large shift towards Labour would see a change in Napier.

2011 election results

Booth breakdown
Booths in Napier have been divided into three parts. While Napier covers a large rural area, almost 84% of ordinary votes were cast in the Napier council area – effectively in the Napier urban area. All other polling places have been grouped as ‘north’, while the Napier booths have been split into east and west, of approximately equal populations.

National won 55% of the electorate vote in Napier West, giving them a 16.5% margin. In Napier East, Labour polled just under 50% of the vote, giving them a 5.9% margin. National won a huge majority in the north, with a 32.9% margin.

National won a majority of the party vote in Napier West and North. National won a plurality in Napier East, but the combined centre-left vote (Labour and Green) was greater than the National party vote.