CLP 13.1%
Incumbent MP
Lia Finocchiaro, since 2016. Previously member for Drysdale 2012-2016.
Geography
Spillett covers the north-eastern suburbs of Palmerston, including Durack, Johnston, Farrar and Yarrawonga, and parts of Zuccoli.
Redistribution
Spillett was redrawn quite dramatically, becoming more of a Palmerston-area seat. The seat previously covered the outskirts and wrapped around the other Palmerston seats from the south-west, but now it is centred on the north-east. Spillett gained the remainder of Farrar from Brennan. Spillett lost Mitchell and part of Zuccoli to Brennan, Archer to Blain, and Pinelands, Wishart, Elrundie and Tivendale to Nelson.
History
Spillett was created as a new seat in 2016, mostly taking in parts of Fong Lim, as well as other outer suburbs in the town of Palmerston.
Fong Lim was won in 2008 by CLP candidate Dave Tollner, who had previously held the federal seat of Solomon for two terms from 2001 to 2007.
Tollner held Fong Lim for two terms. Tollner was appointed as a minister after the CLP won the 2012 election, and served as deputy chief minister from 2013 to 2014.
The redistribution before the 2016 election made Fong Lim much less friendly for the CLP, pulling the seat into the Darwin area, while a new seat of Spillett was created. Tollner contested CLP preselection but lost to Drysdale MP Lia Finocchiaro.
Finocchiaro had won the Palmerston-area seat of Drysdale in 2012.
The 2016 election was very bad for the Country Liberal Party, and Finocchiaro was one of only two CLP members to hold their seat. She served as deputy leader of the CLP until early 2020, when she became leader.
Finocchiaro led her party to a significant improvement at the 2020 election, recovering from two to eight seats. She has continued to lead her party.
Assessment
Spillett on paper is a safe CLP seat, and Finocchiaro shouldn’t have much trouble in 2024, but it is difficult to assess an electorate which has been redrawn so significantly.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Lia Finocchiaro | Country Liberal | 2,921 | 59.0 | -0.1 | 55.8 |
| Tristan Sloan | Labor | 1,594 | 32.2 | +2.9 | 33.2 |
| Vanessa Mounsey | Territory Alliance | 434 | 8.8 | +8.8 | 9.3 |
| Others | 1.8 | ||||
| Informal | 126 | 2.5 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Lia Finocchiaro | Country Liberal | 3,219 | 65.0 | -0.3 | 63.1 |
| Tristan Sloan | Labor | 1,730 | 35.0 | +0.3 | 36.9 |
Booth breakdown
There were three ordinary booths in Spillett in 2020, but Berrimah has been moved out of the area by the redistribution.
Almost two thirds of the vote in 2020 was cast at pre-poll booths, and the CLP polled 64% of the two-party-preferred vote. The CLP did even better at the Durack booth, but a little bit worse at Zuccoli.
| Voter group | CLP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 64.0 | 2,898 | 64.1 |
| Other votes | 62.6 | 992 | 21.9 |
| Durack | 66.2 | 421 | 9.3 |
| Zuccoli | 60.7 | 209 | 4.6 |
Polling places surrounding Spillett at the 2020 NT election
Lia Finocchiaro has announced that if the CLP is elected at the next election in August this year, the CLP will remove payroll tax for small businesses. The CLP are now the clear favourites to win.
The election is the CLP’s to lose and only a major gaffe from the CLP will save NT Labor.
@Ian exactly. And NT Labor have already had two Chief Ministers after Michael Gunner (although I’m a Liberal voter I must admit he was a good Chief Minister), first it was Natasha Fyles (the Left faction MP for Nightcliff who resigned after a shares scandal) and now it’s Eva Lawler (the Right faction MP for Drysdale who is now in big danger of losing her own seat). Fyles was deeply unpopular, and it seems like Lawler is too. On the other hand I haven’t heard much negative stuff about Lia Finocchiaro. She’s a young, moderate MP who helped the CLP get back on track in 2020 and now is the favourite to become Chief Minister in 2024. And I think that’s a good thing: she deserves to be Chief Minister and I think after Territory politics I think she should run for the seat of Solomon.
One thing is for sure: the federal and territory swings in Alice Springs and Katherine will be violently against Labor and to the CLP. Gunner’s personal popularity and the COVID incumbency effect somewhat stuck in 2020 but he’s gone now so the CLP should be able to make them very safe again.
I think Finocchiaro will win in a similar way Terry Mills did: by winning remote seats with high Indigenous populations, but I think it will also be mixed with a sweep of Palmerston and southern Darwin.
Agree NP and Ian, I can definitely see the CLP easily recovering some of their traditional Darwin and Palmerston seats like Blain (held by independent ex Labor MP Mark Turner), Port Darwin (held by Paul Kirby who is retiring) and Fong Lim. They are also likely to gain Goyder with independent and ex CLP MP Kezia Purick retiring there too.
The next tier of targets which are potential gains will be the remaining marginal rural seats (Daly, Arnhem and Arafura) along with Drysdale (Eva Lawler’s seat). The path for a CLP majority will involve winning at least one seat from this category in addition to the four above.
@Yoh An yeah I think Eva Lawler will lose her own seat.
Exactly. Labor will federally probably lose Lingiari as long as a good candidate is selected. Solomon is interesting since Labor holds is much safer than Lingiari but the CLP should have a good run.
Territory Labor will almost certainly lose Fong Lim, Port Darwin, Fannie Bay, and even Drysdale to the CLP. I think Arafura, Blain, Araluen and Daly will ‘lean’ to the CLP, barring any potential mishap. I think after the redistribution Karama will be very vulnerable, and Wanguri with a retiring MP might be a surprise. Per the CLP also holds all its seats, and winning all the aforementioned seats they could end up with 17 seats, which would be a wipeout. Goyder, held by an independent, will logically go back to the CLP, so 18 seats.
Then you have the Greens targeting four seats: Nightcliff, Fannie Bay, Araluen and Braitling. I don’t think the PV in Araluen and Braitling will be enough for a serious dent, especially since their original candidate in Araluen was disendorsed because of anti-Semitic comments. Nightcliff is a good chance considering Natasha Fyles’ scandal and her having almost disappeared into the backbench. The CLP could benefit. Fannie Bay will be close as I think Brent Potter is essentially cooked beyond saving. CLP have usually held Fannie Bay but the Greens garnered around 20% in the by-election, so any big rise and drop in Labor vote could give to the Greens but not confirmed yet at all.
The only seats I see Labor holding are Arnhem (unless an independent runs again which I haven’t heard about yet), Gwoja, Johnston, Casuarina, Sanderson and Nightcliff. Yingiya Mark Guyula will most likely retain Mulka, Robyn Lambley is a question mark since she is in a naturally CLP seat but she has good profile and is at least anti-Labor so she could hold but also lose.
Just my thoughts.