CLP 8.5% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Gerard Maley, since 2020.
Geography
North-eastern fringe of Darwin. Nelson covers rural areas on the outskirts of both Darwin and Palmerston, and a number of suburbs in western Palmerston.
Redistribution
Nelson shifted further into the Palmerston area, taking Elrundie, Marlow Lagoon, Pinelands and Tivendale from Spillett, and losing Knuckey Lagoon to Karama.
History
The electorate of Nelson has existed since 1990, and has been held by independent MPs for all but two terms since then.
Noel Padgham-Purich won Nelson in 1990. She had sat in the assembly since 1977, representing Tiwi until 1983 and Koolpinyah from 1983 to 1990. Padgham-Purich was initially a member of the CLP, serving as a minister from 1983 to 1984. She lost preselection for Koolpinyah in 1987, and was re-elected as an independent.
Padgham-Purich held Nelson as an independent until her retirement in 1997.
Nelson was won in 1997 by the CLP’s Chris Lugg, who saw off a challenge from Padgham-Purich’s chosen independent successor Dave Tollner. Tollner went on to serve as member for Solomon in the federal Parliament from 2001 to 2007 and as member for Fong Lim in the NT Parliament from 2008 to 2016.
Lugg only held Nelson for one term, losing in 2001 to independent candidate Gerry Wood. Wood held Nelson for five terms, retiring in 2020.
Country Liberal Party candidate Gerard Maley won Nelson in 2020.
- Anthony Venes (Labor)
- Gerard Maley (Country Liberal)
- Beverley Ratahi (Independent)
Assessment
Nelson will likely stay in CLP hands unless they face strong independent opposition.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Gerard Maley | Country Liberal | 2,302 | 50.5 | +28.3 | 50.9 |
| Beverley Ratahi | Independent | 1,351 | 29.6 | +29.6 | 27.9 |
| Steve Asher | Labor | 488 | 10.7 | -0.3 | 12.0 |
| Andy Harley | Territory Alliance | 420 | 9.2 | +9.2 | 9.1 |
| Informal | 146 | 3.1 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Redist % |
| Gerard Maley | Country Liberal | 2,658 | 58.3 | 58.5 |
| Beverley Ratahi | Independent | 1,903 | 41.7 | 41.5 |
Booth breakdown
There were three ordinary booths used in 2020 in Nelson. The Berrimah booth was redistributed out of the seat, but the other two booths remain included in the seat. About an eighth of the vote was cast at those two booths, with the CLP winning both with 55-57% of the two-candidate-preferred vote.
71% of the vote was cast at pre-poll, with the CLP polling 58.8% after preferences.
| Voter group | CLP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 58.8 | 3,434 | 71.0 |
| Other votes | 58.8 | 784 | 16.2 |
| Howard Springs | 57.0 | 441 | 9.1 |
| Coolalinga | 55.4 | 179 | 3.7 |
Polling places surrounding Nelson at the 2020 NT election
Gerard Manley (the CLP MP) is still the only candidate for this seat. Is Labor even running here?