Fannie Bay – NT 2024

probably one of few seats the greens has a chance in

@Oguh you’re joking, right? The Greens don’t have a chance anywhere in the Territory. The best they could do is come second to Labor in Nightcliff.

Brent Potter seems to be a controversial figure in an electorate that doesn’t seem particularly conservative, so that’s an in for Greens. Greens have a good starting point from the byelection. I can see why they’re targeting here though Nightcliff and Johnston are better prospects (given CLP preferenced Greens over Labor at the last election)

Greens will need to pull their finger out in the NT eventually as any expansion of the Senate will create a winnable seat.

The Greens promary vote at the by-election was over-inflated due to the loss of Michael Gunner’s personal vote and an added opportunity to protest against the government. By-election results can vary wildly for the Greens.

@Votante I agree I don’t see the Greens winning here and I actually see this as a potential CLP gain.

@John historically it has been mostly held by the CLP.

As per my previous comment – I think the Greens are giving this a really strong effort and the election results could be something of a surprise. Per their candidate’s socials they’re seemingly getting good turnout on doorknocks 7 days a week, and placing the vast majority of their efforts into winning the seat.

A Green win may still be an unlikely outcome compared to a CLP gain or Green preferences electing the ALP, but with the incumbent on the nose, I’ve definitely got my eye on this seat.

There’s no way the Greens will win an NT seat. They don’t even run candidates in every seat yet (they do everywhere else).

I don’t really see how running candidates in every seat has any bearing on whether or not they win – with a party as small as the NT Greens surely it would make more sense for them to focus on the seats where they do well, rather than put up paper candidates in vast electorates where they have barely any capacity? Especially with no proportional representation.

@Oguh how are they winning? They got 10.2% of the vote last time. In Nightcliff they almost came second however.

@NP All the reasons stated above, they’re targeting the seat now when they weren’t at the last Territory election, and on paper they only need a 6.3% swing directly from the ALP based on the 2022 by-election, assuming no change in the CLP vote from 2022.

I don’t know if they’ll win it, a lot of big assumptions in the reasoning I’ve given, but they’re clearly putting the bulk of their efforts into the seat and I think they will do quite well here.

Agree with oguh. I live in the electorate and the Greens have a run a pretty sustained campaign. It’s not outlandish to see them shaving an extra 300 votes off the ALP candidate and finishing above them on 3PP.

That’s a good point Powda, when the electorate size is this small, big swings are possible if a convincing strategy is hit upon, because the actual number of votes that need to be shifted is also small.

They have doorknocked the entire electorate at least 3 times and they are running a big campaign in Alice Springs although I don’t expect them to win Braitling. The Greens have only won seats by running large scale doorknocking campaigns and conveying their message at the individual level. Don’t rule out the Greens winning a seat this time round

I’ve been door knocked once in my electorate then seen no one since so 3 times is a good effort. If I was on the fence, having someone door knock 3 times might sway me

The best the Greens can do in the NT is hope to finish second, whether it’s to Labor in Nightcliff or to the CLP in Braitling.

Fannie Bay will be their best performance I’d imagine

@Oguh I think they’ll do better in Nightcliff.

I’d say Fannie Bay has a small-l-liberal vote that Michael Gunner got some of so I’d say they’ll go back to the CLP like they did at the by-election.

CLP HTV card:

1. CLP
2. Independent
3. Labor
4. Greens

An interesting article in the ABC today about the Green’s chances.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-14/nt-election-2024-greens-chances-record-candidates-key-seats/104140194

Think Greens can win with Labor falling to 3rd. With no CLP preferences they’re right to target here more than Nightcliff

Interesting that the CLP has preferenced Labor ahead of Greens so the Greens need Labor knocked out of the 2CP to win.

@Nimalan the Greens would’ve always needed Labor to be knocked out to win. The CLP finished first here in the by-election. Labor wins on Greens preferences so if the Greens were to win this they’d still need Labor to be knocked out of the TCP. Anyway I doubt the Greens will win this. This seat has a lot of teal, small-l-liberals and a moderate CLP can appeal to those voters.

@ Nether Portal
Agree the other way the Greens could win a seat Like Canberra, Cunningham or Cooper if Labor stays in the 2CP but the Greens outpoll the Libs and the Libs preference them. That is the way they won the state seat of Richmond in Victoria they only won by Lib preferences.

The Greens knocking Labor into third is entirely doable though. The by-election 3CP was:

CLP 44% – 1,529 votes
ALP 34% – 1,196 votes
GRN 22% – 781 votes

Meaning that a swing of just 208 votes from Labor to Green could see the Greens overtake Labor and win the seat. Granted, this was at a by-election where turnout was down 15% on the general election, but with an unpopular incumbent, NT Labor on the nose and an unprecedentedly large (for the NT Greens) single-seat campaign in the seat, it’s well within the realm of possibility that we could at least see a CLP-Green 2CP, if not a Green win.

@Nimalan – from memory Greens likely didn’t need Liberal preferences for Richmond (Vic) 2022 (or South Brisbane 2020), despite getting them. Greens came first on primaries in both and had plenty of wiggle room to move. With good campaigns Greens can get about 40% of Liberal preferences despite a HTV against them.

If they did slightly better in Northcote, Preston, Pascoe Vale or Footscray then that would be a clear case of LNP preferences making the difference given they went from relatively low primaries to near wins. At this NT election Nightcliff and Johnston would have needed a similar dynamic for a Greens win. That isn’t coming now but could be coming for the left-ish independents in those seats.

For Fannie Bay, oguh has summed up why I think it’s winnable.

I think it’s unlikely that the Greens will win Fannie Bay. The all-time high Greens vote recorded in the 2022 Fannie Bay by-election will likely decrease at the general election because many of these Greens votes come from lost personal votes for Michael Gunner and will go back to Labor at the general election as a sophomore boost for the new Labor MP, especially given his profile as a minister.

The Labor primary vote in Fannie Bay at the general election is likely to be between that recorded at the 2020 general election and the 2022 by-election. In the case of Johnston, the Labor primary vote in Johnston at the 2020 general election was between that recorded in the 2016 general election and the 2020 by-election, although the Labor primary vote was much closer to that recorded at the 2016 general election than that recorded at the 2020 by-election. This make it very difficult for the Greens to get ahead of Labor to finish second.

It’s looking like they they will long term it wouldcbe better for the lnp if they did as it’s one less seat for labor

Result still uncertain depends upon order of exclusive

Exclusion

I believe this and Nightcliff were the only Greater Darwin-based seats to vote Yes to the Voice.

Still in doubt with just 86 votes separating the clp and greens… will Greens pick it up?

@Up the Dragons maybe or it could narrowly go to the CLP. Either way Labor won’t win it.

I’m more inclined to let the greens have it tbh yea I’m a lib supporter but I’m thinking to the future. Having the greens hold it now keeps Labor out in future 1 less seat for them to be able to form majority govt. I expect casuarina and Sanderson to be won by Labor in 2028.

@ John
That is possible alternatively it maybe the case that CLP holds Casurina and Sanderson and maybe holds all Darwin seats but Labor picks up Barkly and Namatijra instead. If the economy is booming in 2028 that will help the CLP in Darwin but remote seats may have other issues.

Namatjira should hold but Barkly could be lost either way I don’t think the clp will be a one term govt this time.

Antony Green actually said the reason that CLP was a one term government is they won remote seats with indigneous communities in 2012 rather than Darwin based seats which had totally different interests which led to disagreements and infighting this time they have more Darwin based seats. For this reason maybe better to put more effort in the Darwin seats.

Current Update as of 6:54am, 27/8, ABC News:
CLP is leading by 36 votes in Fannie Bay, with a strong flow of postals and other declaration votes overturning the Greens lead. It’s too close to call, and a recount may be done.

an automatic recount is conducted when the final margin is under 100 votes. so it will be recounted. personally i prefer greens to win the seat because that benefits clp in the long run

How does it benefit the CLP in the long run?

because its a left leaning seat and the Clp would likely lose it in 2028 if the greens have it its one less seat for labor to make majority

Its easier to secure a personal vote when electorates are so small like they are in NT… who knows fannie bay could remain CLP next election

CLP leading by 101 votes with 51.3% TCP.

back to 76

I’m calling it as a CLP pick-up.

What is alp Greens gap?

@Mick Quinlivan it’s only a 1% gap at the moment.

Wonder how many votes still to be counted?

It says on abc theres a maximum of 150 left to count. I’m sure the greens will ask for a recount if they don’t do one automatically

Does that figure count outstanding postal votes which still.may be returned?
When is the cut off for postal? This fri?