Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2024 Northern Territory election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election.
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Table of contents:
Electorate profiles
Seat profiles have been produced all 25 Legislative Assembly electorates. You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.
You can also use this map to find an electorate and view the seat guide.
Redistribution
A redistribution of electoral boundaries is conducted before every election.
The 2023 redistribution took longer than planned. A second draft needed to be conducted after a significant amount of growth in enrolment numbers in remote electorates. The process then needed to be restarted due to an error in officially announcing the original process.
No seats were abolished, created or renamed in this redistribution.
There were no significant shifts in electorates between regions – the number of seats in the Darwin-Palmerston area remained the same, and there was no changes to the border between urban and rural regions despite a significant imbalance in enrolment numbers.
The most significant shift was in the increasing population in the Palmerston area. Spillett was redrawn from a seat that was partly based in Palmerston into an entirely Palmerston-based seat, meaning that this city now includes four whole electorates.
There should be a word of caution about how redistribution margins are calculated.
There are very few local polling places used in the Northern Territory. Many seats only have one booth, and some don’t have a single booth. It is rare that a seat has two or three booths. Quite a few electorates have large shares of the vote cast via mobile polling teams, and we don’t have precise data on where those votes were cast. This makes it difficult to precisely determine which voters come from a particular part of an electorate when transferring a share of an electorate to a neighbouring seat.
In addition, the last election was conducted in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half of the vote was cast via pre-poll, which also makes it hard to geolocate those voters.
So while I have estimated how margins have changed, it is more difficult to be precise than in other elections.
You can see a summary of the changes at this blog post, and the below map shows the changes between 2020 and 2024.
Contact
If you have a correction or an update for a single electorate page, feel free to post a comment. You can also send an email by using this form.
If you’d like me to include a candidate name or website link in my election guide, please check out my candidate information policy.
@oguh completely agree. I think it’s the same scenario for Labor in this seat too
We’re three days out from the election. Here’s what’s making news:
Starting off with breaking news out of Karama:
Territory Labor has pulled a flyer that was a printed email character reference sent to Karama MP Ngaree Ah Kit to independent candidate Justine Glover where she appeared to endorse Ah Kit. Her photo was then added at the bottom. Glover described it as “dirty politics”, while Lawler said it was a “smart move”, despite it being in breach of electoral laws. Labor could be fined up to $90,000 for the flyer. Labor is really worried about Glover winning Karama.
Here’s what’s also making news:
* Ngaree Ah Kit’s illegal flyer controversy could have killed her chances of being elected, with some even claiming it could have killed Labor’s chances of re-election.
* Owning a crocodile as a pet has become an election issue. Currently they are allowed with a permit, but Labor is seeking to ban them even with a permit. While saltwater crocodiles are large and have a serious bite, freshwater crocodiles are small and are not aggressive to humans. The CLP says if it wins they may potentially review the permit policy introduced by Labor.
* The two major party leaders faced off in a leaders’ debate, with the main focus being crime. Alice Springs was recently ranked as the 18th most dangerous city in the world by Numbeo’s Crime Index by City. Voters in Alice Springs and Katherine in particular are saying crime is the main issue for them at the election.
* Car windscreens have been smashed outside a prepoll centre in Katherine. Katherine voters who spoke to the ABC overwhelmingly listed crime as the main issue at the election.
* Eva Lawler has said that royalties and revenue from gas and other emerging industries will pull the Territory’s debt into a surplus within 18 months.
i thought the seat was gonna be lost anyway
who wont the leaders debate? i tohught it was supposd to be on tv last night but i couldnt find it
Truthfully I don’t think the flyer is that bad, CLP have put flyers out about not voting for independents. I think it’s a case of neither parties want independents but one party issued flyers ‘inconsistent’ with electoral laws as the abc said. My question is why did she write it in the first place
According to NTEC electoral data, 39.7% of Territorians have voted
@John it doesn’t say who won it, it just says what happened in it. I think it was on Sky News.
@Whoknows Labor’s flyer was illegal, the CLP’s wasn’t. Not sure why, since the articles don’t really say why, but I’d say it has something to do with the fact that it was a character reference rather than the actual content of the flyer. Why Justine Glover wrote the reference was because she trusted Ngaree Ah Kit as a colleague and a friend. Why Ngaree Ah Kit decided to essentially betray her is because she could seriously lose her job to Glover. The reference was from months before Glover even nominated.
@np what time i was watching sky new from about 6pm and didnt see it
@John no idea.
ah t was in the afternoon finished at 5pm
We’re two days out from the election! Here’s what’s making news:
* The NT News has reported that Indigenous enrolment is at a record high, but also that Indigenous communities may turn on Labor.
* The Australian Christian Lobby and Pro Life Victoria appear to be running an American-style anti-abortion campaign, with graphic anti-abortion pamphlets being sent to letterboxes across Darwin. The groups want to overturn the Territory’s abortion laws, which have support from Labor, the CLP and the Greens.
While the CLP is considering giving babies born alive during abortions medical care and protections, the party has ruled out any changes to the abortion laws, which Finocchiaro herself actually voted in favour of, and the laws were introduced by Labor and the Greens want more accessibility to abortion, so this campaign is stupid. Of course babies born during abortions should be given medical care, but abortion is a woman’s choice (late-term abortions are a bit crazy though). Australia is not America, and the Northern Territory does not need culture wars.
Did it say why they might turn on Labor?
This is the abc article on the anti abortion issue
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-22/nt-opposition-could-support-failed-abortion-legislation/104193612
According to the NT Department of Health, less than one per cent of pregnancy terminations occur after 23 weeks’ gestation
It’s extremely sad that this is being publicised here in Australia. The pamphlet was published in the paper last week and it’s quite confronting for women who have had terminations for medical reasons
@Whoknows I agree on the abortion issue. I don’t think someone should get an abortion based on unchangeable characteristics of the baby (sex, disability, etc) or late-term but I do feel like that’s rare anyways.
Regarding Aboriginal voters, I think it’s just going off the federal swings to the Coalition in remote Indigenous communities, not just in Lingiari but nationwide with swings to the Coalition in Aboriginal towns in other seats too such as Grey, Leichhardt and Parkes amongst others.
@npp i dont agree with abortion on demand however do agree in cases of rape, incest and hen it threatens the life of the mother
I just don’t agree that abortion should be discussed at all during an election period. It’s a moot point. As said before we are not America.
@John everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but it should be up to individuals to make their own decisions. There are several things that I’m against personally but don’t think should be outright illegal.
What the ACL and other lobby groups want is as much power as the conservative Christian lobbies of the US that have advocated against abortion and same-sex marriage. What really fuels their increasing power in right-wing states is Trump’s MAGA movement and the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade (where it was ruled that the right to an abortion was generally protected under the US Constitution; this landmark decision legalised abortion nationwide), along with a potential overturning of another Supreme Court decision, Obergefell v. Hodges, which legalised same-sex marriage nationwide. The reason the American groups want abortion and same-sex marriage laws to be up to the states is so right-wing states can ban those things. And the reason they want them banned is because of evangelical Christianity, which basically goes hand-in-hand with the modern Republican Party. It’s unfortunate how what was once the Grand Old Party (GOP) became the MAGA Party.
Australia cannot become the United States. And it won’t. Which is why the campaigns are stupid. People have bigger things on their mind than religious right talking points. In fact social policies shouldn’t ever be the main issues in an election and parties shouldn’t have polarising social views. The economy should always be the main priority. Economic policies need to be different but social policies shouldn’t usually.
More important than social issues are issues re employment rights of trade union members snd the redistribution of income wealth and services including education
@Mick Quinlivan I consider those more economic-related issues since they don’t relate to a person’s identity, background, culture or beliefs.
@ NP
The right flank of the Libs and Sky After Dark often say if Libs focus on social issues such LGBT issues they can win over working class voters who are traditionally Labor. For example, try and win Calwell, Blaxland by focusing on religious-based issues and move away from economic differentiation with Labor. I have a friend who is a rank and file Liberal member in Victoria but thinks they way forward is to be more Socially right wing and even accept some left-wing policies a bit like the DLP. He said Good Riddance to the Teal seats as he felt they were blocking the Libs to focus on social issues. One of the reasons that Sky After Dark was furious about what happened to Moira Deeming is that they believe she could have won traditional Labor voters in such demographics. They argue that the new divide in society is no longer economics but social policy.
*some left wing economic policis
@Nimalan, it’s most likely as waste for the Libs to focus on LGBT issues as doing so would ensure Libs lose moderate voters and would be viewed as a distraction by apathetic white battlers all to not even end up catching as much conservative CALD voters as they like at the end of the day as other issues persist.
Plus for the Libs to embrace some Left Wing Economics might anger their typical voter base and the IPA
Nether Portal, I agree with you that elections should be about economics and spending priorities fundamentally. But, democracy is a little bit like the free market (well, at least a version of it where there are two big players, a couple of minor players and some local businesses, a bit like our supermarket sector I suppose) in that over time the competitors will only sell things that the public will buy. And the public won’t buy what they don’t want, unless they can be persuaded into wanting it through marketing. Culture wars (like abortion or same sex marriage) are mostly about things that don’t directly affect most people, but political parties, the media and religions all try to persuade the public that they’ll be negatively affected if other people have the freedom to do something. That’s the marketing that makes people vote based on social issues that don’t really affect them.
And it’s worked fantastically. After all, understanding macroeconomics is complicated. So is understanding how much we need to invest in health or education or infrastructure or the military. But it’s very easy to have an opinion on a social issue if my pastor (or imam or rabbi) or my preferred talking heads in the media (or YouTube or Tiktok) tell me it’s a threat to my way of life. There aren’t any facts I need to understand or other perspectives I have to consider, because that requires effort and time. I just have to listen to the figures I trust because that feels better, and then I’ll have emotions about it and they’ll feel valid to me. The more I hear this issue is a threat, the more I’ll feel like my identity is being attacked. The stronger my feelings of being attacked get, the more I’ll come to believe that the people with the opposite view are not just wrong, but immoral. So I’ll surround myself with moral people like me, who have the morally right view on this social issue. And they’ll tell me more morally right things about other topics like climate change or tax rates. I don’t need to bother with the facts on those issues either, because I just need to listen to the morally correct perspective on it. And then it becomes clear, there is only one party I can reasonably vote for because they have moral stances, and the rest are full of all those immoral people.
And that’s why parties will never let go of social culture wars. People have been convinced to care so much about them that they’ll end up voting based on them, and converting to an entire cultural worldview that keeps them consistently voting for that party, even if it’s not good for them economically or the party’s position is going against facts and evidence.
But I’d argue that social policies have always been political. The minute we had state religions or multi-ethnic states, how the minority were treated became a political issue. So I don’t know if it’s fair to expect parties to not have polarising social views when they’re inherently political.
And today’s polarising social issue was yesterday’s accepted cultural norm. And tomorrow’s cultural norm might be the opposite of yesterday’s cultural norm. Once it was accepted that women couldn’t vote, then it became a polarising social issue, now it’s accepted that women can vote. It’s all well and good to say with the benefit of hindsight that this was a sensible thing and shouldn’t have been opposed by any party, but enough people were against it at one time for it to be something they voted on. The same was true for same sex marriage a decade ago. And who knows, maybe in 50 years people will look back and wonder why there was ever such a polarising debate over transgender rights when the correct answer was clear all along.
@Wilson there haven’t been any culture wars in the campaign, and the only social war (or whatever it’s called) was the recent abortion pamphlet but that wasn’t by a party it was by right-wing Christian organisations that are socially conservative. The same organisations that led the No campaign to same-sex marriage. The thing is though unlike the US and most other countries, most Australians either aren’t religious at all or do believe in God (or another god or gods) but aren’t strictly religious.
@Nimalan the Northern Territory is different to other areas in that the working-class are more spread out and are different to other states and territories. For example, usually the suburbs with the highest crime are very ethnic, disadvantaged and working-class and as a result they vote heavily Labor (e.g suburbs like Mount Druitt or Doonside in Sydney, Tarneit and St Albans in Melbourne and Inala in Brisbane). The most dangerous suburb of Darwin would probably be Karama which is only a fairly safe Labor seat. The working-class in Darwin is based in the Northern Suburbs.
@Marh I agree in fact even if the Coalition moves further to the right I really don’t think they’ll ever support economic nationalism or protectionism like One Nation does or what much of the Trumpist factions of the Republican Party do in the USA.
The thankful thing in Australia is that even if we elected a right-wing populist government they would not recriminalise same-sex marriage.
Nether Portal, not in this campaign perhaps. But it won’t be kept out of the federal election campaign with Peter Dutton as leader of the opposition.
Having.only 6000 voters in each seat changes the dynamics as well
Labor voters who are socially conservative will not vote for the liberals as they consider Labor looks after their economic interests. The same holds for people who follow Islam.
@Wilson I agree about the federal campaign having some culture wars but the Territory campaign doesn’t.
@Mick the fact that each seat only has 6,000 voters (double the size of a typical country town in the eastern mainland states) also means that anything can happen in the Territory, especially with such a large amount of remote Indigenous communities that can swing either way quite hard.
Similar examples to the federal Division of Lingiari would be the Canadian federal ridings of Northwest Territories, Nunavut and Yukon (all of which represent entire provinces of Canada and have very high Indigenous populations).
We’re just one day out from the election! Tomorrow Territorians go to the polls to vote for who they want in government. Will the eight-year-old Labor government be re-elected, or will the Country Liberal opposition return to power? We’ll find out tomorrow.
Here’s what’s making news:
* Early voting closes today ready for the big day on Saturday. Eva Lawler will vote tomorrow, while Lia Finocchiaro has already voted.
* Stateline NT has made a video looking back on the highs and lows of the campaign.
* The NT News has published an article titled “Will Eva Lawler get the boot in Palmerston?”, as her marginal seat could be at risk to falling to the CLP as the party is predicted to win government tomorrow night.
Counting will begin when polls close at 6:00pm ACST and it will end at 11:00pm ACST. Counting will then resume on Sunday for any votes that haven’t been counted.
Eva Lawler voted yesterday
@ Marh
I am in agreement with your analysis and it certainly not my advice to the Libs but nevertherless it is a few that is out there if the Liberals end game should be to become like the DLP or Katter. I do agree that embracing left wing economic policies may cause unrest among it is small business base as well who tend to be anti-union.
On the Kooyong thread prior to the Voice of Kooyong advertising for a candidate one of our commenttors actually suggested that Labor should put effort to try and win Kooyong themselves. I warned against that and suggest that Labor should allow for the Greens or a high profile independent win the seat instead. There has also been suggestion that Labor should have put more effort to retain Hawthorn in 2022. I noticed Labor did not bother there to hold on to it but in the seat of Bayswater which became Notionally Liberal Labor put much more effort and got a swing to them. There has also been some suggestions that Labor could one day become like the Canadian Liberals and win seats like Mackellar/Kooyong etc that is certainly the viewpoint of right wing commentators. Do you feel that is a possibility.
@ Nether Portal
My point was wider than the NT but nevertherless agree with your analysis. One point i would not say Tarneit is like Inala etc it is a growth area with a mainly South Asian community. I would say Meadow Heights is example of a suburb that fits with Mount Druitt etc. My question is really what motivated you to join the Libs was it economic policy or social conservativism. For the friend i mentioned it was social conservativism, i pretty sure Moira Deeming is more interested in social policy than economic policy.
Has there been any feedback from workers/ volunteers on early voting booths about the mood? Swing etc?
@Whoknows thanks for the correction. I wasn’t aware as I hadn’t seen it in any articles online. Lia voted on the campaign (like, literally, she was campaigning and she voted during that time).
@Nimalan I don’t think Labor could ever win an economically liberal seats like that. Labor can’t abandon the working-class or they will lose votes. Canada is different because they have the NDP who is the social democratic, working-class party while the Liberals are the socially liberal party. At this point the Liberals and the NDP are in a coalition and are attached to each other, and they have no difference in policy. This could change at the next federal election there however since it’s predict that Justin Trudeau’s Liberals will lose to Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
@Nimalan economic for me. I also wanted to get more involved in politics and I thought their views aligned best with mine.
As for Tarneit vs Inala, I agree it doesn’t compare but I was just making a point about suburbs that in general are known for crime, gangs, etc.
@Redistributed not that I know of.
@NP I think she posted it on her FB. She did it at the Palmerston prepolling
Eventually there will be an adjustment system which overcomes the problem of one party outpolling the other but failing to win because of the distribution of seats.. eg 1954 1969 1998 elections
On this basis you create extra seats to obtain the result based on the actual voting totals
We didn’t get many polls this election, but based on the few we did and what’s transpired over this parliamentary term, I think I’ll go ahead and predict a CLP majority government. Their victory in the NT will put an end to Labor’s control of the mainland which they’ve enjoyed for a little less than the past year and a half. Whether or not Lawler loses her seat, what the swing against Labor is like in the regions, and how well (and where) the Greens manage to perform are the three things I want to keep a particularly close eye on.
@mick not necessarily this isn’t absolute democracy. Whoever wins the most seats wins that’s the way it works. Same in America it’s not about the popular vote it’s who wins the EC vote
@laineim saying a Labor loss swell clp to have 14-15 seats. 1-2 independents. Labor 8-9 seats. Lawler will be looking for a new job on Sunday. Files to retire shortly after the election.
Final predictions
CLP 12 (Gain Goyder, Blain, Port Darwin, Drysdale, Daly)
Labor: 10 (Lose Goyder, Blain, Port Darwin, Drysdale, Daly and Fannie Bay )
Green: 1 (Fannie Bay)
IND: 2 (Araleun, Mulka)
I feel another IND will win but not sure which seat. Libs go in gov with an independent. Libs get 54% TPP but their vote is badly distributed and doesn’t lead to them winning as many seats as you’d expect.
@Drake seems mostly reasonable, but but I reckon I’d give Fong Lim to the CLP before Drysdale even though I think it’ll fall too, and I don’t think the Greens will win Fannie Bay.
@John that’s quite a reasonable prediction. Which seats do you think will change hands?
@Drake Goyder is an IND seat so not a Labor loss. Aside from that I would think Fong Lim is quite likely to fall as well given it’s only held by Labor with a margin of 2.2%.
The thing with Fong Lim is last time it did not have an incumbent this time Labor does. Could make the difference in electorates this small. I’m predicting the swing to be smallest in Darwin, but big in Palmerston/Katherine and Alice Springs.
I’m going to say minority government. Most ppl I’ve spoken to have said that. More independents annoyingly. And I’m thinking the CLP will lose Barkly.
But I keep changing my mind with other seats
I also expect a big increase in the non major vote, at least when it’s an option. A lot of seats are only the two majors running, so they might actually improve their vote, but I think where there are independents/greens they will vote for them. It’ll be a matter of where that vote comes back on preferences.
Wish we had more recent polls, but I guess only 1 day left
@john. Why not improve the system..
The electoral college system in usa is not better than the candidate who gets the most votes wins. Allow preferences as well like Alaska snd Maine
@Whoknows I reckon maybe a minority government or a small majority government (CLP wins) but I don’t think the CLP will lose Barkly.
I think Justine Glover will do well in Karama. Whether she’ll win is a different matter, but if she performs well and finishes second she could be like Ian Cook in Mulgrave in Melbourne at the 2022 state election and the 2023 by-election or Hayley Edwards in Rockingham in Perth at the 2023 by-election.