Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2024 Northern Territory election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election.
This election guide is now free for everyone to access. If you find this guide useful, please support the Tally Room via Patreon. For $5 or more per month, you can access every election guide on this site.
Table of contents:
Electorate profiles
Seat profiles have been produced all 25 Legislative Assembly electorates. You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.
You can also use this map to find an electorate and view the seat guide.
Redistribution
A redistribution of electoral boundaries is conducted before every election.
The 2023 redistribution took longer than planned. A second draft needed to be conducted after a significant amount of growth in enrolment numbers in remote electorates. The process then needed to be restarted due to an error in officially announcing the original process.
No seats were abolished, created or renamed in this redistribution.
There were no significant shifts in electorates between regions – the number of seats in the Darwin-Palmerston area remained the same, and there was no changes to the border between urban and rural regions despite a significant imbalance in enrolment numbers.
The most significant shift was in the increasing population in the Palmerston area. Spillett was redrawn from a seat that was partly based in Palmerston into an entirely Palmerston-based seat, meaning that this city now includes four whole electorates.
There should be a word of caution about how redistribution margins are calculated.
There are very few local polling places used in the Northern Territory. Many seats only have one booth, and some don’t have a single booth. It is rare that a seat has two or three booths. Quite a few electorates have large shares of the vote cast via mobile polling teams, and we don’t have precise data on where those votes were cast. This makes it difficult to precisely determine which voters come from a particular part of an electorate when transferring a share of an electorate to a neighbouring seat.
In addition, the last election was conducted in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half of the vote was cast via pre-poll, which also makes it hard to geolocate those voters.
So while I have estimated how margins have changed, it is more difficult to be precise than in other elections.
You can see a summary of the changes at this blog post, and the below map shows the changes between 2020 and 2024.
Contact
If you have a correction or an update for a single electorate page, feel free to post a comment. You can also send an email by using this form.
If you’d like me to include a candidate name or website link in my election guide, please check out my candidate information policy.
@John Fong Lim isn’t inner-city and it covers a lot of the old Spillett. Easy CLP gain. Port Darwin is a CLP stronghold. Again, easy CLP gain. Daly should be a CLP gain too and I think Drysdale will be gained too since the redistribution decreased its margin.
Due to all of the apartments in port Darwin electorate it’s very hard to predict who will go what way and it’s always been that way. I think Fong lim will be close and I’m not going to predict which way it will go. I still believe Daly will be Labor and I think Eva will lose her seat
I agree with John, on Fannie bay re the greens vote going towards Labor. I think the independents in Karama and Johnston will give the major parties a run for their money just based on everything I’ve seen.
It is probably the most amount of independents and greens I’ve ever seen in an NT election
I think it’s absurd to call Port Darwin a CLP stronghold when it has been with Labor for the past two terms. It certainly has a bigger CLP vote than nearby electorates due to the Larrakeyah Barracks being located within it, but that does not make it a “CLP stronghold”.
anyone seen this article?
https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/is-labor-set-to-lose-power-in-the-northern-territory/
is he correct?
I’m going to say, I don’t know. Both sides know it’s going to be very tight and close. I don’t agree with the prediction of Labor losing Wanguri due to Nicole Manison retiring. She has been campaigning and door knocking with the Labor candidate since he was announced. It has been a long term Labor seat for 35 years so I don’t expect that to change
Both Karama & Wanguri look like long shots to me, but if the CLP can pick up Blain, P.D., F.L. and F.B., that would mean a tie at 11 each for the CLP & Lab.
If you add Robyn Lambley plus a conservative independent from Goyder, to the CLP tally, that potentially gives CLP a winning coalition of 13 seats.
I’m really intrigued to know who the independent from Goyder would go towards. Based on recent posts on hers and Kezia’s Facebook page they do not like the clp candidate
@Whoknows she’s connected to Kezia Purick who is retiring and the seat will likely go to the CLP.
This is a very interesting election. General factors (federal drag, 8 years of Labor, small majority) would make a CLP victory likely. But they have very poor electoral terrain with no assured gains. This makes a hung parliament a very plausible outcome. Another interesting subplot in this election is the First Nations vote and whether remote communities continue to leave the ALP column at a territory level (and federally).
@Marko I agree that the Aboriginal vote should be watched carefully. The 2012 general election was decided in the bush. In 2016 they lost ground everywhere after a plethora of scandals and then in 2020 they regained their regional heartlands and two remote seats (one of which, Namatjira, was from redistribution, while the other, Barkly, was a shock gain from an enormous swing to the CLP).
Interestingly Labor won Barkly in 2012 despite losing Arafura, Arnhem, Namatjira and Stuart (now Gwoja).
NP, I believe in 2012 the CLP did not preselect indigenous candidates for either Barkly or Nhulunbuy which likely resulted in the swing being less than in the other remote seats where the CLP did preselect indigenous candidates.
Although Barkly is interesting in that the current CLP member (Steve Edgington) is also non-indigenous. He will likely receive a small swing in his favour as an incumbent, but he does face a strong indigenous Labor candidate Lizzie Hogan who is from Borroloola. The other CLP candidates for the remote seats are indigenous, so that should help the party generate the required swings needed to win them.
@Yoh A fair point but Gerry McCarthy (the Labor MP for Barkly) retired in 2020 too. He wasn’t Indigenous but I take that he was a popular member.
@Whoknows – Regarding Belinda Kolstad (the independent candidate for Goyder), she was endorsed by Kezia Purick (the current Independent MP for Goyder). According to an ABC News article, Kolstad was a former CLP member, but quit the party feeling that the CLP didn’t seem to focus on the community. It’s a question about whether she’ll win Goyder or if it will go CLP, though Kezia Purick had a big personal vote in the electorate. A hung parliament would be crucial but she is a conservative independent who I would say aligns with the CLP ideologically, so she most likely would go with them, but there is no confirmation.
I’m more intrigued to know (who really knows) if her view has changed or slightly changed based on the things she’s said about the recent things the CLP would support that don’t align to her her views. Completely agree that she has a big personal vote in the area and has worked hard for it
I wonder if a more moderate leader like Lia could attract her (if she wins but I don’t think she will) and Robyn Lambley to eventually rejoin the party. She could credit herself as having fixed the party’s internal issues as she was one of only two CLP members in parliament from 2016 to 2020 (the other being then-Daly MP Gary Higgins). She never served as a minister under Terry Mills or Adam Giles either and faced zero controversies during her time as a backbencher.
I highly doubt robyn Lambley will ever join the CLP again, they burned her badly after an alleged coup against Giles. She was the deputy chief minister and treasurer under mills and under Giles was the minister for health
Lambley will likely lose to the clp in Araluen due to 2 reasons she suffered a swing against her in an of year to the clp in 2020 and with sucha. Small marginal and the clp to gain a uniform swing I’d say her goose is cooked. Expect only mulka to elect a ind
We are now 12 days out from the election.
Early voting will open today.
We are now 11 days out from the election. Early voting opened yesterday.
ABC reports that crime is the main issue at the election, with both parties promising to be tougher on crime. The CLP’s crime policies are stricter than Labor’s, obviously.
The campaign will start to heat up more in the coming days.
Big early vote for day one – 5% of enrolled voters!
Katherine as always leading the way in getting this election out of the way. 500+ early votes at just the Katherine booth on day one. Zooming.
https://ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/current-elections/2024-territory-election/voting-data
Big props to NTEC for providing this data is such fine grain with way fewer resources than the big state electoral commissions.
I reckon the Katherine EVC will have a massive CLP TPP. Like don’t be surprised if it’s 65%+.
We are 10 days out from the election. It’s getting closer and closer!
How-to-vote cards have been released. I will analyse the CLP’s soon.
I will post them on the pages for each seat.
So I looked at the CLP HTV cards and it seems that:
1. The CLP have preferenced most independents above Labor and Labor above the Greens.
2. In Braitling and Casuarina, coincidentally the candidates were drawn in the order the CLP has preferenced them, meaning a donkey vote and a CLP vote following the HTV card will be indistinguishable in those seats.
3. For some reason, the CLP have preferenced Wayne Wright (an independent) last in Araluen. This is the only seat where a Labor or Greens candidate has not been preferenced last, with the exception of Mulka where the only other candidate is independent Yingiya Mark Guyula.
Will you be analysing any other parties HTV or just the CLP NP?
@Whoknows Labor HTV cards aren’t available online, only the CLP and the Greens ones are.
We are nine days out from the election. We are officially in single digits.
Here’s what’s making news:
* The ABC has reported that a record number of early votes have been cast in the election.
* The Herald Sun has reported that the CLP has pledged to give $3 million to the Police Force to help keep cops in the job.
NP – I believe they’re on the candidates/members FB pages
@Whoknows I don’t have Facebook and today I honestly can’t be bothered to look through all their Facebook pages.
As Todd end Todd said, daily CLP flag waving.
Just would be good to see the comparison and not just the CLP HTV
@who knows why dont you do it?your basically asking a liberal supporter to hand out HTVs for the opposing parties
@Whoknows first of all, it’s Top End Todd, not Todd end Todd.
How about I do a comparison for the seat of Araluen which is interesting since the CLP and the Greens have both preferenced Wayne Wright (an independent) last?
That would be interesting. abc Alice Springs interviewed the Araluen candidates today, however only Robyn Lambley was available to speak
We are eight days out from the election.
Stateline NT hosted a debate between the two party leaders. Issues on the agenda included crime, cost-of-living and housing.
@NP – regarding your comment on Lia Finocchiaro not being a minister at all during the previous CLP government, this is false. She served as Minister for Sports, Racing, Statehood, and Young & Senior Territorians during the 4th Ministry (and final) of the Mills Government. She was not in the Giles ministry at any point
She was certainly very low profile as a minister, but was seen as competent compared to most of the duds who were higher in government. That’s why she won preselection for Spillett in 2016 against all odds, going up against a senior CLP MP in Dave Tollner in the preselection battle most people thought she would. Admittedly, Tollner was very accident-prone and had made controversial comments during his stint, so I would say the preselectors wanted someone with a relatively blank record, and I would also say that is why the swing against her in 2016 was almost non-existent compared to a CLP stronghold like Braitling or Katherine, because she was seen as hard-working but also had a blank slate and the popularity needed to mute the swing.
@James thanks for the correction and I agree about the swing. Same goes for Daly. It was a marginal seat but the swing was the smallest in the Territory in 2016 and somehow the CLP managed to retain it albeit marginally.
We’re officially seven days out from the election. There’s only a week to go until election day.
There’s no news today so far, but I think it’s time for me to make my case for why I think voters should vote for the CLP.
Crime is rampant, cost-of-living is hitting hard and this is hurting the NT. In particular, it’s hurting many Indigenous communities who for too long have been disregarded by Labor as permanent voters they can always rely on. Federal Labor needs to be sent a message. And it’s time that the Territory sees change for the better. And the tide is starting to turn on Labor.
My predictions overall:
– CLP will hold all their seats, and I expect a swing to them in all of them.
– CLP in my opinion is guaranteed to pick up Port Darwin. Labor MP Paul Kirby is retiring, plus the CLP have been running a very active campaign in this seat, having been one of the first non-CLP seats they preselected a candidate for.
– Other seats I expect to flip to the CLP are Blain and Fong Lim.
– For Drysdale, it’s a tossup since Eva Lawler has personal vote but she’s also the captain of a sinking ship, I think the CLP could win but Lawler is not to be underestimated.
– Daly is interesting as it’s essentially a rematch of the 2021 by-election with the same candidates. I think the CLP could win this back considering the CLP struggled at the by-election, but Dheran Young is quite popular as well.
– The two seats held by conservative independents: Araluen & Goyder are also tossups. In Araluen, Robyn Lambley is well-known and has strong personal vote, and while her margin is slim, she’s a huge opponent to Labor’s crime policy, plus the fact the CLP preselected a candidate here just before nominations closed, so RL will have the upper hand in having been campaigning longer. Goyder is a target seat for the CLP considering Kezia Purick is retiring, but she has endorsed a new independent candidate in Belinda Kolstad, an ex-CLP member. It’s a seat certainly to watch on election night. I am confident that Yingiya Mark Guyula will be re-elected in Mulka.
– The only seats I see Labor realistically holding are Sanderson, Arnhem, Gwoja, Johnston, Casuarina, and Wanguri. There could be more but those are the ones that Labor should hold easily. Karama will be close in my opinion as Ngaree Ah Kit has personal vote but the CLP’s ‘tough on crime’ policy, plus the recent redistribution into Knuckey Lagoon could rise the CLP’s vote to make it competitive.
– The Greens main targets of Fannie Bay and Nightcliff offer stark contrast: Fannie Bay is held by a controversial Labor MP in Brent Potter, who I think will lose regardless unless a miracle happens, whereas Nightcliff is held by a popular Labor MP and former Chief Minister Natasha Fyles, who should stay on unless the Greens come through or Mililma May (a high-profile independent).
To summarise, I believe the CLP should be able to form a majority government, and could get assistance from Lambley, Kolstad (if they are successful), and even Guyula potentially. Labor has had it’s chance, yet has clearly blown in its last term, and is ready to be tossed out. I endorse the CLP.
@James I agree with most of that but I would say the CLP would get Goyder. Belinda Kolstad won’t have the same personal vote as Kezia Purick but she should get most of it.
Be posting from chicago over the next two days
@John two days is a short time in Chicago.
It isn’t if your only there for a con with mark hamill
@John oh nice.
I’m getting others done also but I wouldn’t be here if he wasn’t here
We are now six days out from the election.
21 minutes ago, the ABC released an article detailing which seats should be closely watched at the election.
The article named Port Darwin as Labor’s most likely loss, with bipartisan consensus that it’ll probably fall. Incumbent Labor MP Paul Kirby (who was a minister) is standing down and the seat is usually a CLP seat.
The article also stated that Labor is also in serious danger of losing the seat of Fong Lim. The sitting MP there is Mark Monaghan who is recontesting.
The article says that if Labor loses those two Darwin seats then they would have to rely on picking up a remote seat to offset the losses, with the article specifically naming the ultra-marginal CLP seats of Barkly and Namatjira.
The article then goes on to say that Palmerston will also be a key battleground, with ex-Labor independent Mark Turner in danger of losing Blain and Chief Minister Eva Lawler in danger of losing Drysdale after the redistribution. Belinda Kolstad also faces an uphill battle to retain Kezia Purick’s seat of Goyder.
The final seat it mentions is Johnston in Darwin’s north. Independent Justine Davis has raised $27,000 and claims to have 100 volunteers.
I expect to see you on the live cross Np. With a sign to show us who you are. And don’t forget to mention tallyroom.com.au help Ben boost his following
@John I’ll consider it. I like my anonymity because people have stalked me before. I’ve promoted the site elsewhere too:
Port Darwin is such a hard seat to determine due to the amount of apartments and people moving in and out of the area, as well as the access to the apartments to do door knocking. I only know that having previously lived in the electorate so it will be interesting