Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2024 Northern Territory election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election.
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Table of contents:
Electorate profiles
Seat profiles have been produced all 25 Legislative Assembly electorates. You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.
You can also use this map to find an electorate and view the seat guide.
Redistribution
A redistribution of electoral boundaries is conducted before every election.
The 2023 redistribution took longer than planned. A second draft needed to be conducted after a significant amount of growth in enrolment numbers in remote electorates. The process then needed to be restarted due to an error in officially announcing the original process.
No seats were abolished, created or renamed in this redistribution.
There were no significant shifts in electorates between regions – the number of seats in the Darwin-Palmerston area remained the same, and there was no changes to the border between urban and rural regions despite a significant imbalance in enrolment numbers.
The most significant shift was in the increasing population in the Palmerston area. Spillett was redrawn from a seat that was partly based in Palmerston into an entirely Palmerston-based seat, meaning that this city now includes four whole electorates.
There should be a word of caution about how redistribution margins are calculated.
There are very few local polling places used in the Northern Territory. Many seats only have one booth, and some don’t have a single booth. It is rare that a seat has two or three booths. Quite a few electorates have large shares of the vote cast via mobile polling teams, and we don’t have precise data on where those votes were cast. This makes it difficult to precisely determine which voters come from a particular part of an electorate when transferring a share of an electorate to a neighbouring seat.
In addition, the last election was conducted in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half of the vote was cast via pre-poll, which also makes it hard to geolocate those voters.
So while I have estimated how margins have changed, it is more difficult to be precise than in other elections.
You can see a summary of the changes at this blog post, and the below map shows the changes between 2020 and 2024.
Contact
If you have a correction or an update for a single electorate page, feel free to post a comment. You can also send an email by using this form.
If you’d like me to include a candidate name or website link in my election guide, please check out my candidate information policy.
@Whoknows that was the last government they’ve improved now.
@Scart I think Port Darwin should be an easy CLP gain since the Greens vote there last time was only 7.3%. Fannie Bay will be closer since the Greens do well there.
Are you from the territory?
I’m in Queensland, I have friends up there though.
“Indigenous people rarely vote Greens, especially outside the cities.”
Got a citation for that, Nether Portal? I’ve never seen any polling of First Nations people specifically to make such a declaration. Lingiari has an 11% Greens primary, which isn’t significantly below polling numbers for any state overall or the nation as a whole. In the absence of polling, for all we know, that 11% could be disproportionately composed of First Nations, or disproportionately composed of non-First Nations voters. We don’t know.
The results for the “remote mobile team” polling places in Lingiari may give some indication.
@Wilson, the Greens primary in Lingiari’s RMV booths were between 1% and 12%. The average estimate would be like 6% since a few booths were like that (there were 16 RMV booths in Lingiari).
The TPP swings to the Coalition and against Labor were huge at RMV booths which just proves that Indigenous people are moving away from Labor. On primaries that vote mostly went to the CLP with some of it going to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats (now the Libertarian Party).
At the Tennant Creek PPVC the Greens got 9.7% primary (Tennant Creek is an Indigenous-majority town but only just, I think it’s like 54% Indigenous).
Nether Portal, firstly your information isn’t correct as RMT 16 had a 15% Greens primary. Secondly, there is no data to show what ethnicities voted in which RMT booths, and the results may also capture many non-First Nations voters who live remotely. Thirdly, the bulk of First Nations people live in urban areas and may have voted in urban booths rather than in RMT booths. There’s a big misconception fed by people like Pauline Hanson that only people living in remote communities are “true” First Nations people, but that’s not the case.
As for Tennant Creek, how many of those First Nations people were actually registered to vote in 2022? My understanding was that the Voice referendum got a lot of First Nations people to register to vote who previously hadn’t. I’d also argue 9.7% would be an excellent primary vote for the Greens in a rural town of 3000 people anywhere in Australia. It’s safe to say their voter base tends to be in larger cities.
As to the percentage of First Nations population versus vote share, I could just as easily say that Sadadeen has the highest share of First Nations people within Alice Springs, and also had a booth with a 25% Greens primary.
@RMT I was speaking of remote Indigenous people. Someone in Ngukurr won’t vote in Katherine even though that’s the nearest big town. Firstly it’s a long drive and many remote Indigenous people are poor so the cost of petrol would be a burden, and secondly it’s unnecessary since RMT booths go to every Indigenous community in the Territory.
It seems that the RMT booths that moved around had low Greens primaries while the ones at the 0872 postcode had higher Greens primaries. The main towns in that postcode are Hermannsburg (a small Indigenous community on Arrarnta (Western Arrernte) land, southwest of Alice Springs), Ti Tree (an Aboriginal town just north of Alice Springs), Yulara (a resort town near Uluṟu-Kata Tjuṯa National Park, home to Uluru and The Olgas (Kata Tjuta), about four hours from Alice Springs). Do you have any idea why the Greens vote is so high around the southern booths but not in the northern, eastern and western booths?
Anyway, as for Sadadeen, it is a suburb of Alice Springs (Eastern Arrernte: Mpwarnte) on the eastern side of the Todd River. There is a Charles Darwin University campus there which probably explains why the Greens did so well there.
There are two seats without CLP candidates: Araluen and Mulka. Meanwhile Labor still hasn’t fielded candidates in Araluen, Mulka and Nelson.
At the moment, Yingiya Mark Guyula (independent) in Mulka and Gerard Marley (CLP) in Nelson are running unopposed. The last time a candidate won unopposed at a federal or state election was at the 2008 NT general election, when Labor won the remote seats of Arnhem and MacDonnell unopposed.
I can’t find any CLP candidates running for Arnhem?
@Whoknows former independent candidate Ian Mongunu Gumbula has been announced as the CLP’s candidate for Arnhem. Katherine MP Jo Hersey was with him campaigning in Arnhem recently.
@wilson there was an article in abc news today about the the remote engagement team from the NT Electoral commission getting people in community to register to vote. 80% of the population in Bewick voted in 1997, compared to 30% in 2018
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-29/low-voter-participation-nt-2024-election/104130028
Interesting Australian article about the ex CLP vice president and the CLPs candidate for nightcliff’s campaign manager on his stance on DV victims
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt/2024/guides about election guide is up
Labor looked destined for defeat in 2019 and early 2020 until this thing called Covid came. Like in ACT, QLD and WA, there was a flight to the safety of the incumbents. The hard border was a big reason, but not the sole reason, for Labor’s win in 2020. Just like QLD, this is a case of a government that would’ve lost in 2020 if it weren’t for Covid. In other words, they’ve overstayed.
Labor won’t be as doomed as CLP in 2016. CLP won 2 seats back then. There’s a path for Labor to get at least 5 seats.
I think Labor can still win, but the CLP is the only party I can see holding a outrightmajority of seats.
@volante I’mwhich seats do you think they’ll win?
Votante, I guess that debunks the “Michael Gunner” was popular myth
@Daniel T he was during COVID.
He was popular before covid
He was popular to begin with following the chaos of the previous CLP government. Labor scored a massive swing and a landslide in 2016 and CLP got wiped out. I didn’t mention earlier that Labor had a huge buffer in the 2016-2020 term.
Given the CLP wipeout, it was inevitable that Labor would suffer a retreat following their first term. Labor had traditionally CLP seats like Katherine until 2020. They were going to swing back to CLP. There was a revolving door of staff and ministers and a massive swing in a safe seat at a by election in Feb 2020.
We are 17 days out from the NT election. I will be providing daily contributions to the election pages from now until election night.
Actually from now until the results are finalised.
Looking forward to the daily CLP flag waving NP
@Top End Todd just because I support the Coalition doesn’t mean I won’t be providing general updates. If something interesting happens on the campaign for any party I’ll report it here.
We’re now 16 days out from the election.
Professor Rolf Gerritsen has published an interesting and detailed article in the Alice Springs News: https://alicespringsnews.com.au/2024/08/07/nt-election-model-predicts-clp-win/
Using his model, he predicts a narrow CLP win. However, he notes that Labor under Eva Lawler has been more unified than it was under Natasha Fyles. I completely agree with this: Labor under Fyles was very weak and polls had Labor losing in a landslide.
The criteria he used were party mandate, party unification, third party, the current economy, the long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, incumbent charisma and challenger’s charisma.
He based this model off the Lichtman model, which was developed by Professor Allan Lichtman of the University of California, who has accurately predicted nine of the past 10 US presidential elections (the only one he didn’t predict accurately was the 2000 presidential election were Republican George W. Bush Jr. narrowly beat Democrat Al Gore by very narrowly winning Florida by 537 votes).
@NP make sre to hold up a sign in the live cross from party headquarters n election night mentioning tallyrom
I think ultimately it will be a very tight race.
I have read there are online there have been 2 attempted coups by the Litchfield and Alice springs branches of the CLP but who knows if that’s true or not or when it happened
@John I’ll see what I can do.
this time around there are far fewer candidates in the race with only 85 across the 25 districts. with 8 having only 2 candidates so a preference count wont be needed there
We are 15 days out from the election.
The following seats only have Labor and CLP candidates: Arafura, Arnhem, Barkly, Brennan, Daly, Gwoja, Sanderson and Spillett.
Mulka is the only seat without a Labor candidate. The two candidates will be incumbent MP Yingiya Mark Guyula and CLP candidate Allen Fanning.
Based on the fact that there is no preference count if only one or two candidates run in a seat, the seat to be called first will be Spillett (which is Lia’s seat and is in Palmerston), based on:
1. It is an urban seat so there aren’t remote booths that can change the result.
2. It is a very safe seat, in this case for the CLP.
3. There are only two candidates running.
i think most of them will be called around the same time Spillett, sanderson brennan should all be called relatively early. Mulka is really a no contest since last time it was labor v ind and with labor out of the mix it will be an easy win for the ind. Blain might be interesting with the former labor member in the mix and arnhem could be too
and i think eva lawler will lose her seat
I have never been, But NT definitely gives me vibes of another country, for starters the weather is always wet and humid all year round in Darwin. They also are a territory and have a Chief Minister and not a premier (ACT is also a territory but this is the capital unlike NT)
It’s also got allot of indigenous communities that are not accessible via main roads which makes the NT quite unique.
I certainly wouldn’t survive their a week since I moved from QLD to Victoria to get away from the humid and stormy weather but I know allot of retirees enjoy this sort of climate, but as it’s far away from other major cities it does lack the appeal for younger folks, maybe that could be an explanation to high youth crime here?
Government should deliver infrastructure, services and other attractions to keep the population on the go. You can’t complain about youth crime if there is nothing else for people to do, first you have to address why it’s happening and if it is mental health or boredom, address that.
Because the NT is different, no seat is safe here, some rural seats such as Stuart had a 15% margin prior to the 2012 election and it was wiped out and flipped on a massive swing, it’s also because seats in the NT have far less population than lower house seats in other states. A few hundred votes can really make the difference in some of these seats.
I suspect in a hung parliament the independents would back the CLP, definitely Lambley would. I don’t know about the others.
@daniel there will only likely be 2 independents max the one in mulka is a forgone conclusion but araluen could flip to the CLp. it should be a comforatble win for the clp in my opinion
@Daniel T there are actually a lot of young people in regional NT unlike elsewhere. The median age in Alice Springs is 34 and in Katherine it’s 33 (compared to 33 across the Territory and 38 nationwide). It’s even lower in remote communities (for example in the town of Ngukurr where 92.1% of people are Aboriginal the median age is just 25 and for Aboriginal people it’s 23).
But of course those people would’ve lived there for a while or were born and raised there and in remote towns they may have never lived anywhere else.
my prediction is clp to win government in majority with 13-15 seats, labor 8-9 ind 1-2.
with the follwoing results
Seat
Arafura – labor retain
Araluen – this i rate as a tossup could go either way between clp or ind but gonna go with clp gain
Arnhem – clp gain but tossup
Barkly CLP retain
Blain clp gain
Braitling CLP retain
Brennan CLP retain
Casuarina Labor retain
Daly clp retain/gain
Drysdale clp gain
Fannie Bay clp gain
Fong Lim clp gain
Goyder clp gain
Gwoja Labor retain
Johnston Labor retain
Karama Labor retain but could be close
Katherine CLP retain
Mulka Independent retain
Namatjira CLP retain
Nelson CLP retain
Nightcliff Labor retain expect natasha fyles to retire/resign after the election
Port Darwin clp gain
Sanderson Labor retain
Spillett CLP retain
Wanguri Labor retain
@John what do you think the margins will be?
no idea though i expect Arnhem to be close. araluen is the one seat im unsure of but im gonna say clp gain off the back of a uniform swing
My margin predictions (sorted by city):
* Darwin:
** Casuarina: ALP 8.2% (–7.8%)
** Fannie Bay: CLP 0.1% (+11.0%)
** Fong Lim: CLP 3.5% (+5.6%)
** Johnston: ALP 10.6% (–5.5%)
** Karama: ALP 1.6% (–6.7%)
** Nightcliff: ALP v GRN 14.4% (–9.4%)
** Port Darwin: CLP 54.4% (+6.5%)
** Sanderson: ALP 12.6% (–6.7%)
** Wanguri: ALP 11.5% (–5.8%)
* Palmerston:
** Blain: CLP 3.6% (+5.0%)
** Brennan: CLP 7.5% (+4.6%)
** Drysdale: CLP 0.2% (+5.5%)
** Spillett: CLP 19.4% (+5.5%)
* Alice Springs:
** Araluen: IND v CLP 0.1% (–0.4%)
** Braitling: CLP 13.8% (+12.5%)
* Rural and remote:
** Arafura: ALP 1.8% (–1.8%)
** Arnhem: ALP 0.2% (–17.4%)
** Barkly: CLP 6.2% (+6.1%)
** Daly: CLP 5.7% (+3.8%)
** Goyder: CLP 5.3% (+12.1%)
** Gwoja: ALP 3.8% (–12.4%)
** Katherine: CLP 18.1% (+15.8%)
** Mulka: IND v CLP 17.2% (+12.5%)
** Namatjira: CLP 8.2% (+7.9%)
** Nelson: CLP 17.2% (+8.7%)
Note that the swings are all from the redistribution.
Sadly i wont be able to watch it on tv even because il be travelling from canberra to bendigo on the afternoon of this election. I was going to be in xanberra the who pe weekend but I wanted to go to something on bendigo on sun the day after so Il have to rely on live updates
@John I’ll be providing live updates here and I’m sure many others will be too.
Labor would be lucky to hold 10 seats but given the small voting population, electorates could come down to the wire. CLP will get more seats in their column by the end of election night.
The turnout rates would be crucial. There was a surge in voting enrolments leading up to the voice referendum and record enrolments amongst the young and the indigenous and territorians. Despite these trends, the voting turnout rate at the referendum in Lingiari was 2.5 percentage points lower and slightly lower in Solomon compared to the federal election. There was probably a cohort that enrolled in 2023 but didn’t vote in the referendum.
@Votate the turnout rate in Indigenous communities nationwide is still quite low. Here are the turnout rates at the last election for the seats where the majority (over 50%) of people are Aboriginal:
* Arafura (Labor): 52.7%
* Arnhem (Labor): 58.1%
* Barkly (CLP): 63.2%
* Gwoja (Labor): 52.8%
* Mulka (Independent): 68.4%
TIL Namatjira wasn’t majority Aboriginal because of some outer Alice Springs suburbs but the Aboriginal population in Namatjira is still very high.
It’s official. We are now 14 days out from the election. Only two weeks to go!
Here’s what’s making news:
* The ABC has published an article titled “After eight years in the political wilderness, the CLP has returned to relevance ahead of the NT election”.
* Candidate nominations have closed, and this time it’s the CLP that’s the only party to field candidates in every seat after Labor declined to field a candidate in Mulka. At the last election Labor was the only party to field a candidate in every seat.
* Sportsbet appears to have removed the betting market for the NT election. Tab on the other hand still has a market for it, and it has the CLP as the favourites on $1.50 (a 66.7% chance of a CLP victory).
We are 13 days from the election.
The NT News reports that the Greens are targeting lobbying and donations in their integrity plan.
Writing in the Switzer Daily online publication, Malcolm Mackerras (a psephologist who is best known as the inventor of the Mackerras pendulum; Mackerras has predicted many elections too) predicts that the election will be close but that the CLP will win.
Mackerras predicts that Blain, Fannie Bay, Fong Lim, Karama, Port Darwin and Wanguri will fall to the CLP. I’m a bit sceptical of Karama falling an I’m very surprised that anyone would pick Wanguri to fall but it’s Mackerras he knows what he’s doing. Another surprise is he predicts Arafura, Daly and Drysdale (the latter two I have as CLP gains) will be retained by Labor.
I highly doubt Wanguri will go CLP, living close to the area, it’s a definitely a Labor strong hold.the candidate has been out doorknocking since he was announced. Karama is very surprising. I still still think it’s going to be very close with the independent Justine glover and Labor.
The greens only announced their northern suburbs candidates on Friday on their Facebook page. One is a former city councillor, the others I’ve never heard of
I think Fannie Bay will stay left due to the large scale Greens campaign – either a Green gain or ALP retain. The late Greens announcement of candidates seems to be ways to soak up spillover from target seats and to keep disgruntled voters away from the CLP. So I agree with other commenters on Karama and Wanguri and I’m not sure inner city Fong Lim and Port Darwin are that good for CLP either. I also agree with Mackerras on Arafura, Daly and Drysdale (Lawler would be a goner if she wasn’t premier, but being premier can mean a lot in a tiny electorate).
Which leaves a messy outcome and not a clear CLP win.
The outcome I’m hoping for, which seems like it has a chance of happening, is for Labor to win a 3rd term, but in minority with left of Labor figures like Greens, Guyula and new independents making up the cross bench. The closest analogy being the 2008 ACT election – where a tired government instead of being defeated is forced to reckon with 3rd parties and transform. But CLP have a few tricks up their sleeve (I have my doubts about the “teals” running in a few seats).