Northern Territory 2024

the latest nt poll has confirmed the clp are in front and the betting markets are reflecting this

@John the betting markets had the CLP in front of Labor for the first time about a week ago. And with two polls released now, both showing the CLP leading Labor with roughly 55% TPP and 40% of the primary vote it looks like the CLP are set to win the NT election. Note that the Territory is small population-wise (it’s Australia’s least populous state or territory) so opinion polling is typically scarce unfortunately. I hope someone does a preferred Chief Minister poll and a satisfaction rating poll for Eva Lawler and Lia Finocchiaro.

@NP i got in months ago with good odds on the CLP

the following seat should be safe for Labor
Gwoja, Fannie Bay, Sanderson, Karama, Johnston, Nightcliffe, Wanguri and Casuarina. the rest could potentially be lost

I would add Arafura, Arnhem and Daly onto that list – All well connected and hard working local MLAs

I know that the few polls that there are, are showing the CLP ahead, but looking at the pendulum, I’m wondering what is the CLP’s path to victory? They need to win 13 seats. They have only 7 now, so they almost need to double their seats. How are they going to do that?

The four independent seats are likely to stay independent. At least three of them are pro-Lab so that gives Lab a decent buffer, needing to win only 10 seats, so they can afford to lose 4 and still form govt. Min CLP gains would be 5, but according to the pendulum there are only 3 on winnable margins for them, Port Darwin, Fannie bay & Fong Lim. In all three, the Lab incumbents are re-contesting, making it even harder for the CLP to win those seats.

Then, when I look at the pendulum for the CLP, they hold 5 on very tight margins, ranging from 0.1 to 2.3, so they may lose some of those.

Blue Bet currently have 2.45 on Lab. Those look like attractive odds.

I think Fannie Bay could be a CLP gain with Michael Gunner now long gone. He was very popular territorywide.

@Art Hurwitz – CLP are a very good chance to pick up crossbench held Blain and Goyder and are well placed in their current seats. Also to note that the NT has very small seats that can swing big. Look at 2012 and 2016. So margins can be deceiving.

But you’re right that Labor might still hang on. Port Darwin, Fong Lim and Fannie Bay are all inner urban seats that wouldn’t be good prospects for conservatives in any other city, and Labor picked up big swings to them there in 2022, with Labor even winning the Larrakeyah barracks booth.

In particular Greens are running very hard in Fannie Bay (doing scales of doorknocking that wouldn’t be out of place in a federal seat) and could keep it out of CLP hands despite a scandalised ALP incumbent.

Daly was a surprise byelection gain with the same unsuccessful CLP candidate (who I think in part lost due to not being local) running again, so could be the same result. Territorians are happy to vote premiers out of their seats (just ask Adam Giles), but Lawler’s profile might save Drysdale for Labor.

Of the crossbenchers, Robyn Lambley will likely back the CLP, but maybe Guyula wouldn’t (if any Greens get elected you could imagine him aligning with them).

All that to say I think the election might actually be close even with NT Labor not at all looking like a strong or popular government.

*Chief Minister, not premier

Thanks for the heads up.

Here’s how the CLP’s path to victory looks:

WINNING:
Port Darwin
Fannie Bay
Fong Lim
Goyder
Blain

LOSING:
Nil

This would bring the CLP to 12 seats plus Lambley, giving them a majority government. Is this likely?

Winning only four of the five would give them 11 seats (assuming they hold all their existing seats). Even with Lambley, that doesn’t give them a majority, as I assume Guyula leans towards Labor. I noticed that Kirby is not contesting Port Darwin for the ALP, which gives the CLP an edge, but Fannie Bay seems like a tougher challenge, especially with the high Green vote there at 20% last election and John’s comments about their active campaigning. As an old political hack, I can say that nothing is more effective in winning votes than door-knocking.

Looking beyond Fong Lim, the next target for the CLP would be Daly with a 7.3% margin, which might be difficult to overcome. Drysdale should be safe for Labor due to Lawler’s higher profile, as John mentioned.

Matt Cunningham wrote an article in the NT Times on 06 July, saying that voters are disillusioned with both major parties, but that the ALP’s troubles might not necessarily translate into a CLP victory.
Regarding Blain, he said: “Former Labor MLA Mark Turner looks increasingly likely to hold his seat as an independent.” What should we make of this?

As someone not very familiar with the NT (only visited Darwin once in 2020), I find it odd that there are so few polls with only five weeks to go until polling day. The Wikipedia page on the election shows only two polls: one from November 2023 and the last one from 16 May, which shows the CLP ahead on TPP by 54 to 46. However, it doesn’t specify how the CLP achieves victory by winning which seats.

I’m also curious about who won the leaders’ debate and how it might impact the outcome. Are more debates planned?

Latest betting odds:

Ladbrokes:
Labor: 2.4
CLP: 1.55

BlueBet:
Labor: 2.45
CLP: 1.5

Sportsbet:
Labor: 2.4
CLP: 1.6

Looking forward to seeing how this unfolds!

~~ Worse Case Scenario For Labor ~~

Here is the map…

https://imgur.com/a/zlg8k6g

Primaries:

CLP – 43.24% (+11.90)
ALP – 27.03% (-12.35)

TPP:

CLP – 57.90% (+11.30)
ALP – 42.10% (-11.30)

I don’t expect this, But this is the worse case for Labor if everything goes wrong for them.

Here’s my map prediction of what I think will happen on election night: https://jmp.sh/IZpOjIc3

The CLP are the favourites to win government. I’ve got Eva Lawler losing her own seat.

@Daniel T worst case scenario the CLP picks up all of the remote seats.

@Daniel T – I also have Karama down as a CLP gain. The redistribution gave it conservative-voting Knuckey Lagoon, and an 8% margin I don’t think is enough to survive a meltdown. But things can change, and Ngaree Ah Kit does have personal vote and ministerial status.

If this is the case, then 1.60 for the CLP looks like an easy way to make money?

Karama is more likely to go towards independent Justine glover over Labor and CLP, however Karama has been a Labor seat for 23 years and I wouldn’t expect it to change

I think karama will go towards Justine glover or Labor. It has been held by Labor for 23 years and I don’t see it changing anytime soon

The NT Electoral Commission has published the list of pre-poll and election day booths: https://ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/current-elections/2024-territory-election/vote/voting-locations

Multiple urban voting centres (pre-poll and election day) will be in Alice Springs, Darwin (and the surrounding towns), Katherine and Palmerston, and one each will be in Nhulunbuy, Tennant Creek and Wagait Beach. Many other remote communities will also have booths, but they will be remote mobile voting booths. Urban mobile voting booths will be located in Alice Springs, Darwin, Katherine, Nhulunbuy, Palmerston and Tennant Creek, and interstate voting booths will be located in each capital city at the electoral commission office of each state and territory.

And with a month and one day to go until election day, here’s the countdown until polls close at 6:00pm NT time: https://countingdownto.com/?c=5681038

Early voting opens on 12 August, election day is 24 August.

I’ll be in the Territory in election week.

anyone seen this in the ABC online portal today?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-23/stateline-nt-independents-in-2024-election/104081118

Any thoughts?

A lot more independents than previous elections. Will be interesting to see what their preferences are.

A lot of people are disillusioned by both parties. Labor aren’t as tough on crime as they should be or as people would like.
CLP are only focused on crime and will reintroduce mandatory sentencing laws which will increase incarceration rates however both prisons are over capacity

@Whoknows the CLP are mostly focused on three issues:

1. The cost-of-living crisis
2. The crime crisis
3. Local issues (like small business for example; if elected they’ve promised to raise the payroll tax-free threshold for small businesses from $1.5 million to $2.5 million and will exempt apprentice and trainee wages from payroll tax)

The CLP are really focused on certain key seats so they still haven’t fielded candidates in Arnhem, Mulka or even Araluen (an Alice Springs seat held by ex-CLP-turned-Territory Alliance-turned independent Robyn Lambley, even though the CLP almost won it last time). It’s unfortunate that this will be the second year in a row that no CLP candidate has run in Mulka, even though Yingiya Mark Guyula will be comfortably re-elected against Labor.

@nether portal which do you think are the key seats?

I just wonder with both parties, what will Territorians lose to make way for their promises since the government is still in debt. But I guess it’s the same everywhere, cost of living is high on the agenda in every state

@Art Hurwtiz I just watched the video in the article you linked. Judging that, I think:

* Justine Davis will poll strongly in Johnston, but I wouldn’t predict that she’d win. Johnston also has quite a high Greens vote and most of the TA vote will go back to the CLP so I’d say Labor will safely win Johnston, though if Justine Davis directs preferences to the CLP over Labor it could be interesting.
* Mark Guyula will win Mulka easily. He may even be unopposed since I don’t think Labor has a candidate there yet either (the CLP doesn’t yet).
* The CLP will win Goyder but the independent (Belinda Kolstad) will come second due to her close association with Kezia Purick who is the retiring member for Goyder.
* Mark Turner is basically cooked in Blain. The seat is on a very tight margin (it’s ultra-marginal) and he’s been through so many scandals that he was expelled from Labor. People who get expelled from parties don’t get re-elected. The CLP will gain Blain and Labor will finish second.
* With no CLP candidate in Robyn Lambley’s seat of Araluen even though I predicted for a long time she would lose after nearly losing to the CLP’s candidate Damien Ryan last time, I now think that she’ll be certain to hold on. But Labor will still run dead. Currently Robyn Lambley’s only opposition is coming from Hugo Wells, the Greens candidate. We have speculated though that the CLP are trying to get Robyn Lambley to rejoin the CLP and they’re still negotiating with her.

Though in saying that ABC does tend to lean left on many occasions, usually not through ABC News itself though.

Anyway, I think a teal could run in a seat like Fannie Bay and preference the CLP since Lia Finocchiaro is a moderate leader. But teals won’t get elected on the state or territory level anywhere (except maybe in SA because of David Speirs being very much like Peter Dutton) because state-level Liberal Parties are more moderate than their federal counterpart, at least for the most part.

@Whoknows my key seats:

* Araluen
* Arnhem
* Barkly
* Blain
* Brennan
* Daly
* Drysdale
* Fannie Bay
* Goyder
* Namatjira
* Port Darwin

I think Labor will win Gwoja and Karama but only narrowly so they’ll be worth watching too. Casuarina isn’t in play but I expect a reasonable swing against Labor there too.

I make maps for target seats too by the way when I get requested to or if I think I should do it.

I think the independent will win Goyder, she’s gotten kezia’s tick of approval and goyder have voted for an independent for the last 8 years and I don’t think it will change
Apparently people think mark turner will hold onto blain, he’s very well liked there despite the scandal. He hates labor now and has never been a fan of the CLP, who knows now

I think labor will hold onto Daly. Casuarina had been long term labor but with the electorate lines changing it will be interesting.

I’ve been surprised Robyn lambley has held on so long but rumours are it’s her last term. She’ll always preference CLP even though they burn her badly in the last CLP government.

I know a lot a people are vocal about the issues but I read somewhere that door knocking really does matter so it will be interesting to see if that plays a big part, whether people want to see someone who’s active in their electorate

How did Sanderson – a former swing seat – become so strong for Labor over the years?

From what I’ve heard Kate worden is very active in the electorate, door knocks several times a week, has a mobile office in a park every weekend. She’s always been ‘out and about’ even when it wasn’t an election year

Thanks Whoknows.

I reckon the CLP will get 53-55% TPP, so let’s put the average at 54%. The CLP will win by gaining back a few seats in Darwin. I reckon they’ll also regain Daly.

Forgot to add, Katherine might be another close seat to watch, Jo Hersey just scrapped in last time and Nick Lovering appears to be a very popular person in Katherine

The same CLP candidate from the by election is running so that will be interesting

@Whoknows – Yes, Nick Lovering is popular but you also have to factor in that Michael Gunner was very popular across the NT, even in CLP strongholds like Katherine, Alice Springs & Palmerston (even Port Darwin). The heavy unpopularity of Adam Giles was how Labor won Braitling, Brennan, Drysdale, Katherine and Port Darwin in 2016 in huge shocks.

2020 was a bit of a return. As demonstrated in Solomon in 2019, the Giles factor was gone, meaning Labor’s margin was hit across the NT. The CLP gained back all aforementioned seats except Drysdale and Port Darwin, but had Gunner not been Chief Minister, CLP would have won back those two as well.

Jo Hersey (CLP Member for Katherine) will have a sophomore surge very likely. She has also put in a lot of work, and will certainly benefit from the fact Gunner is gone, and his successors have never replicated his popularity, in fact, the complete opposite. Labor has a good candidate, but he’s just in the wrong seat and in a party with the tide against them. Kind of like QLD Labor’s candidate for Moggill in QLD: great candidate, wrong seat.

Katherine will have a massive swing with Gunner gone. It will be in double digits.

Remember the 2015 NSW state election? The Coalition easily retained government but Labor regained ground in some of their heartlands. But Labor still only won heartland seats like Blue Mountains and Newcastle with only 57% TPP, because the recovery swing was huge but not enough to get past a popular Premier and a landslide win last time.

The 2020 NT general election was like the 2015 NSW state election. After a historic landslide, a popular Premier was re-elected. The government held on to some of the opposition party’s former strongholds in the capital cities but most of the opposition party’s strongest heartlands came back. The only difference is that in NSW it was the Coalition under Mike Baird (and later Gladys Berejiklian) and in the Territory it was Labor under Michael Gunner.

A lot of people were very scarred by the Giles government at the time and what they did to the NT

To talk about the lnp failing to win Daly but close to govt seems counter intuitive. The seats in the nt Average 4000 voters. This is a bias in favour of reflecting incumbents.

The Greens are gunning hard this time. Adam has sent an email to the national mailing list asking for donations, saying that they are aiming for two seats.

Which two seats are the Greens aiming for? Nightcliff and Johnston or Fannie Bay?

@Votante they’re hoping to win all three but they won’t get any seats this time. They almost came second in Nightcliff last time though so maybe they could this time but that would require the CLP vote going down.

Greens are targeting Araluen, Braitling, Fannie Bay, and Nightcliff (they announced candidates for these four a few months ago) and have only just selected candidate for Johnston and Port Darwin in the last week. Fannie Bay in particular appears to be where the bulk of their effort is going, per their candidate’s socials they’ve doorknocked the entire seat twice and are going back for a third time. Doubt they win anything necessarily but could see some big swings on the back of general Labor & incumbent unpopularity in Fannie Bay/Nightcliff, as as well as what seems to be their first proper field campaign.

The CLP very well could gain Fannie Bay but the Greens won’t. I won’t write Labor off yet but the CLP would and should be the favourites to win it. Michael Gunner’s gone now and crime and the cost-of-living crisis are crazy right now.

Though in saying that the more affluent residents of Fannie Bay are less affected than the middle-class of Alice Springs and Katherine or the working-class of Karama.

At best, the Greens could get 20% in primary votes off the back of resentment to Labor. It’s unlikely the Greens will pick up anything. I think the Greens are just testing different seats before consolidating efforts in one seat in the future, like they did at state elections and federal elections.

I just wonder when we are going to see some new polling. Without that, it’s all speculation. CLP still comfortably ahead in the betting.

btw, what can the territory govt do about cost-of-living aka hyperinflation? As Milton Friedman has said, inflation is entirely the fault of the central govt, the only authority with the power to print money. I doubt whether a moderate CLP govt could do much about crime either.

If I was an NT voter, I’d prob go with Lawler, even though I hate Lab. She presents as a stronger, firmer leader.

@Art Hurtwitz that was a joke right?

Look at crime and cost of living.

Eva Lawler is a weak leader, just like Natasha Fyles. Lia is the best one for the job. As a Coalition voter here, even I admit that Michael Gunner did a good job. But he’s gone now.

I wholeheartedly endorse the CLP. I will be attending their election night event in Darwin, so hopefully I can meet Lia and the rest of the CLP team.

Greens seem to be campaigning much, much harder in Braitling than Araluen. Maybe they see it as easier to beat the CLP than an independent (even a conservative one), or it could just be that Asta Hill is a more media friendly candidate.

I still think Fannie Bay and Nightcliff have a solid starting base for Greens, terrible ALP candidates (a scandal prone police minister and a former Chief Minister who resigned in disgrace), and a general leftward lean that makes them credible targets and possibly winnable despite healthy scepticism about whether Greens can poll high enough.

They also just announced in Casuarina (on top of Port Darwin and Johnston). Greens have been campaigning hard on Lee Point so it would make sense to actually contest the electorate with Lee Point in it. Port Darwin gives you a potential “won on Green preferences” narrative and CBD prepill and campaigning is a sunk cost. Johnston should have been a target seat but they have lost momentum to an independent and the Labor candidate is much stronger than Fyles and Potter. I would think Fong Lim would be as justifiable for similar reasons to Port Darwin but maybe they just don’t have a candidate

Only other Greens candidate that might pop up is the Greens councillor for the (recently sacked) Barkly council. Despite really trying to reach out to first nations, Greens probably don’t know the first thing about campaigning for the mobile team booths.

The Greens are most popular among inner-city young white people with a uni education. Indigenous people rarely vote Greens, especially outside the cities. The Greens don’t get it. In regional, rural and remote areas people aren’t anti-Australia Day or whatever.

If I ever got elected for Parliament or became campaign advisor for the Liberals, I’d be encouraging them to get out in remote communities, whether that be Indigenous communities, remote towns with only a handful of residents, or even our external territories. I would promise to never let them down and protect their cultures and languages.

The upcoming LNP government in Queensland and the upcoming CLP government in the Territory should both establish state language commission for Indigenous languages, similar to the Māori Language Commission in New Zealand. The treaty thing needs to be localised because Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander groups are different in different parts of Australia.

A language commission would help revive and promote Indigenous languages.

@nether portal are you a long term territorian? Do people still remember that the CLP cut jobs in the public service like Campbell Newman, sold the port to the Chinese, sold TIO and split up the biggest government owned corporation?

Crime and cost of living is everywhere. Sadly Alice Springs is publicised more. Governments also need to be putting in more money to address the root causes of juvenile crime

@Art Hurwitz I highly doubt they’d do any publicised polling now, apart from parties doing their own polling in the key seats

@Nether Portal They definitely have the power to influence seats though via prefences to Labor. That could see Labor hang on in Port Darwin or Fannie Bay but I still think the CLP will take those seats.