CLP 2.9%
Incumbent MP
Marie-Claire Boothby, since 2020.
Geography
Palmerston. Brennan covers south-eastern parts of the city of Palmerston, to the east of Darwin. Brennan covers the suburbs of Bakewell, Rosebery, Zuccoli and Mitchell.
Redistribution
Brennan lost Gunn and the remainder of Farrar to Spillett, and gained the remainder of Rosebery from Blain and Zuccoli and Mitchell from Spillett.
The electorate of Brennan has existed since 1990. In that time, the Country Liberal Party has won the seat at all but two elections.
The CLP’s Max Ortmann won Brennan in 1990. He held the seat for one term, and lost preselection in 1994.
Ortmann ran for Brennan as an independent in 1994 but lost to CLP candidate Denis Burke.
Denis Burke held Brennan from 1994 until 2005. Burke became chief minister in 1999, leading the Country Liberal Party until they were defeated in 2001 – ending twenty-seven years of power in the NT.
Burke continued to lead the CLP in opposition until 2003. He was succeeded by Terry Mills, but returned to the leadership in the lead-up to the 2005 election.
In 2005, Burke’s CLP suffered devastating losses, including his own seat of Brennan, which fell to Labor’s James Burke.
James Burke held Brennan for one term, losing in 2008 to the CLP’s Peter Chandler. Chandler was re-elected in 2012, and served as a minister in the CLP government, including as deputy chief minister from 2014 to 2015.
Chandler was defeated at the 2016 election by Labor’s Tony Sievers, who gained a swing of over 16%.
Sievers held his seat for just one term, losing to the CLP’s Marie-Claire Boothby in 2020.
- Tony Sievers (Labor)
- Marie-Clare Boothby (Country Liberal)
Assessment
Brennan is a marginal CLP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Marie-Clare Boothby | Country Liberal | 1,730 | 39.5 | -3.9 | 42.3 |
| Tony Sievers | Labor | 1,760 | 40.2 | -7.2 | 40.0 |
| Abraham Mbemap | Territory Alliance | 477 | 10.9 | +10.9 | 13.0 |
| Peter Chandler | Independent | 413 | 9.4 | +9.4 | 4.7 |
| Informal | 146 | 3.2 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Marie-Clare Boothby | Country Liberal | 2,242 | 51.2 | +3.8 | 52.9 |
| Tony Sievers | Labor | 2,138 | 48.8 | -3.8 | 47.1 |
Booth breakdown
There were three ordinary booths used in 2020 in the area now contained within Brennan. The CLP won a huge 60.7% majority in Zuccoli and 50.8% in Rosebery, while Labor won 52.5% in Bakewell.
A majority of the vote was cast at pre-poll booths in 2020, and the CLP won those votes narrowly with 50.4%.
| Voter group | CLP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 50.4 | 2,567 | 61.6 |
| Other votes | 52.1 | 733 | 17.6 |
| Rosebery | 50.8 | 348 | 8.3 |
| Bakewell | 47.5 | 314 | 7.5 |
| Zuccoli | 60.7 | 209 | 5.0 |
Polling places surrounding Brennan at the 2020 NT election
It’s set to be a rematch of the 2020 result. Tony Sievers was the sitting MP, winning in 2016, but narrowly lost in 2020 to Marie-Clare Boothby. Another question will be if ex-CLP member will recontest after he got a low vote last time when he ran as an independent.
With the large swing against Labor expected, I believe this seat will return to a safer margin for CLP (probably >10%).
I agree with Yoh An, it should be a fairly strong swing to the CLP this time. Can’t see Labor regaining this seat when the swing will be against the Government.