ALP 1.4%
Incumbent MP
Mark Turner (IND), since 2020.
Geography
Palmerston. Blain covers southern parts of the city of Palmerston, including the suburbs of Woodroffe, Bellamack, Moulden and Archer.
Redistribution
Blain shifted west, losing the remainder of Rosebery to Brennan, and gaining Moulden from Drysdale and Archer from Spillett. These changes increased the Labor margin from 0.2% to 1.4%.
The electorate of Blain has existed since 1997, and had always been won by the Country Liberal Party until the last election.
Blain was first won in 1997 by the CLP’s Barry Coulter. Coulter had sat in the Assembly since 1983, first representing Berrimah from 1983 to 1987 and then representing Palmerston from 1987 t0 1997. Coulter had served as deputy chief minister from 1986 to 1995. Coulter resigned from his seat in 1999.
The 1999 by-election was won by the CLP’s Terry Mills. Mills became CLP leader in 2003, serving as leader until shortly before the 2005 election. He served as deputy leader from after the 2005 election until shortly before the 2008 election, when he again became the party’s leader. Mills led the CLP to a strong result in 2008, recovering from the 2005 defeat and bringing Labor close to losing their majority.
Terry Mills led the CLP through the 2008-2012 term, and led the party to victory in 2012, becoming chief minister. Mills was replaced as party leader and chief minister in early 2013, and resigned from his seat in 2014.
The 2014 by-election was won by the CLP’s Nathan Barrett despite a swing of 10% to Labor. Barrett became a minister in the CLP government, but was forced to resign from the ministry in 2016 over a video sex scandal. He quit the CLP two weeks later.
Barrett did not run for re-election, and his seat was won by Mills, now running as an independent. Mills formed a new party, the Territory Alliance, in 2019.
Mills came third in 2020, with Labor candidate Mark Turner winning the seat by just thirteen votes.
Turner’s time as a Labor MP was not long. Turner was expelled from the Labor caucus in February 2021 over allegations of illegal activity while in a relationship with a Labor staffer. Turner was eventually expelled from the party in June 2023.
- Danielle Eveleigh (Labor)
- Matthew Kerle (Country Liberal)
- Mark Turner (Independent)
Assessment
Turner is unlikely to be re-elected. The seat was already very close so the absence of a Labor incumbent puts the CLP in the driver’s seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Mark Turner | Labor | 1,729 | 41.4 | +4.0 | 40.5 |
| Matthew Kerle | Country Liberal | 1,489 | 35.6 | +10.2 | 33.6 |
| Terry Mills | Territory Alliance | 959 | 23.0 | -8.5 | 21.0 |
| Others | 5.0 | ||||
| Informal | 138 | 3.2 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Mark Turner | Labor | 2,095 | 50.2 | +1.5 | 51.4 |
| Matthew Kerle | Country Liberal | 2,082 | 49.8 | -1.5 | 48.6 |
Booth breakdown
There were two ordinary polling places in Blain in 2020. Labor won Rosebery narrowly while the CLP won Woodroffe.
Almost two thirds of the total vote was cast at pre-poll, and Labor won those votes with 51.2%.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 51.2 | 3,009 | 65.9 |
| Other votes | 49.8 | 914 | 20.0 |
| Woodroffe | 47.6 | 439 | 9.6 |
| Rosebery | 51.6 | 205 | 4.5 |
Polling places surrounding Blain at the 2020 NT election
I would confidently say Mark Turner won’t win and my prediction is that the CLP will win this. Labor will finish second. Personal vote doesn’t tend to matter here since Terry Mills lost his seat in 2020 when he contested as the leader of the Territory Alliance, in fact he didn’t even make the final count (it was a very narrow Labor victory over the CLP).
Agreed, cannot see how Turner is re-elected. Matthew Kerle has been campaigning here for a long time and seems like a good bloke. Can see him winning this back fairly comfortably.
From the NT News last weekend:
“Former Labor MLA Mark Turner looks increasingly likely to hold his seat as an independent. The man who was forced out of the Labor caucus due to the so-called “cocaine sex scandal” could provide one of the most interesting results on election night.
A senior CLP source says he is a certainty to hold, while a well-connected Labor man has been warning his own party for two years that leaving Turner in the sin bin was a mistake that might come back to haunt them.
Turner’s popularity proves a Territory politics truism.
In a jurisdiction where each seat only has about 5000 registered voters, hard work and incumbency are the key to electoral success.
An incumbent MLA who works hard has a huge chance of being re-elected.
It’s why in many seats, this election will be a referendum on the work ethic of the sitting MLA.”
@Oguh the NT News always supports Labor though even when they’re quite unpopular in the Territory, like the current Labor government is. Territory Labor is becoming a Darwin party.
Labor must go. The NT needs change.
Whilst that might be true they quite explicitly aren’t backing Labor in the quote I’ve given
Yes NP, But is Lia Finocchiaro really the right person to lead? It’s easy to dislike the government, but you then have to look at the alternative. She really isn’t fit to be chief minister in my opinion. (Nor is the current chief minister to be fair)
Because this country has a stupid 2 party system (meaning only 2 major parties form government) People believe they must choose between the 2 even with a preferential ballot.
I admire the Canadian system where 3rd parties can win in the provinces/states. They have 3 main parties and in 1 province they had a Green opposition and in another they had a 3rd party win government in 2018 and got re-elected in 2022.
The closest we have gotten here is in the NT in 2020 there was talk of the Territory Alliance becoming major, and Nick Xenophon team becoming a major party in SA in 2018. But both scenarios never eventuated, which is sad because I believe a 3rd party should be given a shot of governing at some point (Not the Greens, god no)
This country is desperate for reform, and we are like the United States where leaders debates don’t include 3rd parties, unacceptable.
Of course Lia is the right person. She’s a talented young lady with moderate views. That ticks three boxes for voters they’ve been deserting the Coalition: young, female and moderate. Plus her Italian background makes her ethnic, so that’s another box.
The CLP’s candidate choices have been very diverse for this election. Just look at some of the candidates’ surnames.
I’ll be in the Territory on election night at the HQ unless something had happens.
I see her as a federal MP for Solomon in the future.
NP, if she was that good then why did she fail to oust Michael Gunner as chief minister last time?
If she was moderate she also wouldn’t have opposed the voice. I opposed the voice but she still isn’t making herself a credible moderate because of some of her on the issues.
If Jacinta Price was leading the CLP she would win in a landslide. There is absolutely not enthusiasm for Lia. Jacinta on the other hand is strong, charismatic and talks allot of sense. That is why she got put on the front-bench so quickly.
If the CLP run the exact same campaign they did in 2020 “The CLP has a plan” (hint they don’t) then they will lose again. They need a strong vision to challenge the government on (something the QLD LNP before Crisafulli did not have) Lia reminds me of Deb Frecklington.
And I did read the CLP manifesto in 2020, not something that I see wins over moderates.
They are also doing the exact same thing in WA with Libby Mettam, someone uninspiring (fake moderate) and cannot win. If you want real moderates look at Peter Gutwein, John Pessuto, Mike Baird, etc.
@Daniel T Michael Gunner was very popular. That’s why he won and even then he only got a one-seat majority.
@Daniel T – Michael Gunner was exceptionally popular across the territory. He had strong appeal in CLP-voting Katherine, Alice Springs & Palmerston. That’s why the swings to the CLP in Katherine & Alice Springs were in single digits, and he got swings in every seat in Palmerston except Brennan. Once he was gone, Territory Labor absolutely flopped. Natasha Fyles was a joke, and that shares scandal basically signed Territory Labor’s death certificate for August this year. Eva Lawler has gone on to also at this point put the final nail into their coffin.
Also, speaking in a way to make her out as ‘low-profile’ is a bit nonsenical. Does that mean that high-profile people are better in high office? Eva Lawler is high-profile yet terrible, she’ll probably lose her seat while she’s at it, and the CLP will absolutely fly ahead of Labor.
I do agree Jacinta Price would be a great CLP leader: exactly what you said – strong, charismatic and sensible. She could run in Lingiari and she would have no problem winning, or even a territory seat and probably defeat Labor’s hopes in that seat. But risking a safe Senate spot and having a senior portfolio on the shadow frontbench, that might be what keeps her from running for NT Parliament.
@James exactly because a win in Lingiari isn’t 100% guaranteed for the CLP even though it is indeed likely, but it’s certain that both Labor and the CLP will win the two Senate seats in the Territory.
Bess Price (Jacinta Price’s mother) was an Aboriginal activist who served as the CLP member for Stuart from 2012 until 2016. Stuart no longer exists but it’s basically the seat that is now Gwoja. She once spoke Warlpiri in Parliament.
The NT news does not support Labor, you have that wrong NP. The editor and all of the staff are not from the NT have have no ties to Labor
@Whoknows they’ve endorsed Labor for every federal and territory election ever for the same stupid reason “the Coalition/CLP government/opposition does nothing for the Territory or for Indigenous people”. What does Labor do?
Labor have completely destroyed the Territory. Crime is rampant and not being tackled. Eva Lawler will lose comfortably.
Both parties have destroyed the territory at some point. Labor aren’t tough enough on crime, the CLP sold the port to the Chinese for 99 years. Crime is rampant in every state but the NT is publicised more
@Whoknows I still wouldn’t walk around Tennant Creek after dark.
The CLP has preferenced Labor last in this seat. That means Mark Turner has been preferenced second. Honestly I didn’t expect this given that Mark Turner was expelled from Labor over a scandal.