IND 0.5%
Incumbent MP
Robyn Lambley, since 2010.
Geography
Alice Springs. Araluen covers the southern suburbs of Alice Springs, including Araluen, Desert Springs, Gillen, The Gap and parts of central Alice Springs and Sadadeen.
The electorate of Araluen has existed since 1983. Prior to the current member leaving the CLP in 2015, the party had held the seat continuously for the last 32 years.
The CLP’s Jim Robertson won Araluen in 1983. Robertson had represented Gillen since 1974, and represented Araluen for one term, retiring in 1986.
The CLP’s Eric Poole won Araluen in 1986. Poole held the seat for fifteen years, retiring in 2001.
Jodeen Carney won Araluen in 2001. Carney was re-elected in 2005 despite many other Country Liberal seats on safer margins falling, and was elected as the party leader following the election. She stepped down as leader shortly before the 2008 election.
Carney was re-elected in 2008, and resigned from Araluen in 2010, triggering a by-election.
The 2010 by-election was won by CLP candidate Robyn Lambley, a former deputy mayor of Alice Springs. Lambley was elected deputy leader and deputy chief minister after the CLP won the 2012 election. She lost the deputy leadership in 2013, and was sacked from the ministry in February 2015. She resigned from the CLP in June 2015 after her seat of Araluen was proposed for abolition in the draft redistribution.
Lambley was re-elected in 2016 as an independent. She subsequently joined the Territory Alliance in early 2020.
Lambley was the only TA candidate to win a seat in 2020. She resigned from the party in October 2020 to sit as an independent, and the party has ceased to exist.
Assessment
Lambley has held this seat for a long time and has a good prospect of retaining it as an independent, but her margin is very slim. It’s possible that a swing back to the CLP could be too much for Lambley to hold on.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Damien Ryan | Country Liberal | 1,659 | 38.0 | +1.6 |
| Robyn Lambley | Territory Alliance | 1,276 | 29.2 | -10.5 |
| Jackson Ankers | Labor | 789 | 18.1 | -5.8 |
| Bernard Hickey | Greens | 455 | 10.4 | +10.4 |
| Domenico Pecorari | Federation | 114 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Wayne Wright | Independent | 71 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Informal | 157 | 3.5 |
2020 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Robyn Lambley | Territory Alliance | 2,203 | 50.5 | -8.1 |
| Damien Ryan | Country Liberal | 2,161 | 49.5 | +8.1 |
Booth breakdown
There were two ordinary polling places in Araluen in 2020, although a majority of votes were cast via pre-poll booths. Lambley won 54% in Gillen, while the CLP won 54% in Alice Springs. The pre-poll broke slightly towards the CLP (50.9%) while Lambley won the other votes with 53%.
| Voter group | TA 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Gillen | 54.4 | 791 | 17.5 |
| Alice Springs | 46.3 | 344 | 7.6 |
| Pre-poll | 49.1 | 2,629 | 58.2 |
| Other votes | 53.2 | 757 | 16.7 |
Polling places surrounding Araluen at the 2020 NT election
Two questions:
The first one is for Ben: can you unlock the NT pages now? The election’s in two months.
The second one is: why the actual hell is it taking so long for the CLP to preselect a candidate in Araluen? They came so close to gaining it back from the turncoat MP Robyn Lambley last time and have a very real chance of winning this time. The only other seats without CLP candidates as of June 2024 are the remote seats of Arnhem and Mulka (last time they didn’t run in Mulka but in 2016 they did and they plan to run in 2024 as they bloody should because major parties need to contest every seat to show voters they care).
Also: I’ll be in the NT during election week. Hopefully I’ll get to meet some MPs and I’ll be at the CLP after-party regardless of the result so hopefully I can meet Lia who could (and should) become the next Chief Minister.
@np Il be in Canberra that weekend
@John yeah I don’t expect too many people from here to be up there. I’ll be in Darwin and Palmerston.
I do have a theory as to why it’s taking so damn long to find a candidate here: the CLP may be trying to get Robyn Lambley to rejoin the party or they may be discussing a potential deal if they get into government (confidence and supply or a coalition arrangement).
Nether Portal, why don’t you just pay to unlock the NT pages instead of asking for freebies? Ben did a lot of work to create this website and deserves a few bucks in return if you’d like to read the analysis.
@Wilson I know and that’s why I haven’t asked too early I just think it’s getting to the time where, you know. If I could I would pay but I’ve got too many things to do with my money at the moment (that’s all I’ll say as I was told growing up to not discuss certain things to do with money as it’s impolite and rude).
I think Nether Portal is right – I suspect they’re trying to woo her back into the CLP either before or after the election. I think they could also appoint her Speaker. It’s deliberate that she’s unopposed currently. Interesting strategy, as it would normally be a seat the CLP should win handsomely upon election to government.
it will be an lnp seat after teh election either way
Have there been any nt opinion polls? if so what was the 2pp? This is not a done deal for lnp win in nt.
There are only 4000 votes approx in each electorate which can skew the result
The latest opinion poll was Freshwater Strategy in May 2024, which had the CLP at 54% TPP.
Redbridge had the CLP at 56.5% in November 2023. Both polls showing swings between 7-9% TPP away from Labor. But you’d think they’re smallish sample sizes.
@PRP theyre mallish enogh ditricts though
There’s a UComms poll of Darwin and Palmerston residents in the NT News today, commissioned by Environment Centre NT, that has Labor ahead, poorly reported on and very light on details though with no 2PP.
The info it does give:
n = 1,100
With undecided:
ALP 29.5%
CLP 29.1%
Minor parties/independents 24.3%
Undecided 17.1%
Forced choice:
ALP 35.7%
CLP 35.7%
There is no indication for minor party/independent support with a forced choice, but it does say that of those voters 57.5% would preference the ALP, and that would give them government. Bit of quick math based on the numbers given would suggest that there’s an additional 4.3% added to the minor/ind vote with a forced choice, and based on that the 2PP would be 52/48 Labor’s way.
That said, I’d both like to see the full methodology, and wouldn’t put too much faith in a poll that has minors and independents that high when there’s a small chance a minor party or an independent runs in every seat.
Still no CLP candidate here?
This late in the game, I can’t imagine the CLP will run, or at least put up a real fight. They’ll either run a paper candidate or not contest.
They still have three seats without candidates: Araluen, Arnhem and Mulka. They need to contest all of them.
Labor still has a few seats to go too, and I think Araluen is one of them:
Labor now have a candidate here and the CLP have confirmed they’ll field one – fairly certain of Lambley retaining at this point though.
@Oguh is Labor running in Nelson? If not then the CLP will win that unopposed.
I think they said they’d have a candidate there but ultimately the CLP aren’t losing this either way.
Nelson that is.
CLP HTV card:
1. Sean Heenan (CLP)
2. Robyn Lambley (Independent)
3. Gagandeep Sodhi (Labor)
4. Hugo Wells (Greens)
5. Wayne Wright (Independent)
What are Wayne Wright’s political views? Why is he preferenced last? He must be pretty extreme if Labor and the Greens are ahead of him.
The Greens have also preferenced Wayne Wright last. I can’t find Labor’s HTV card online anywhere.
I can’t find anything on Wayne wright, never heard of him
I suspect he’s a far-right independent if everyone’s preferencing him last.
Following on from the first sitting of the NT Legislative Assembly, Robyn Lambley was elected Speaker (becoming the third independent speaker after Lorraine Braham and Kezia Purick). I think this was because when excluding all Cabinet ministers, the remaining CLP members were all new, so it would have been better to have a more experienced MP take office as Speaker.
@Yoh An a predictable outcome – she’s also generally conservative and the CLP didn’t really try at all in her seat
Agree Oguh, I believe this was the same reason why Independent Speakers were chosen after the 2001 and 2016 elections which also featured changes of government. When excluding Cabinet Ministers, the remaining backbenchers of the governing party were all newly elected MP’s. Therefore, it was better to go with a more experienced MP from the crossbench.
In the next term, or if Lambley is somehow forced to step down midterm, then one of the new CLP MP’s can potentially be promoted to Speaker (This happened in 2020 just prior to the election that year, when first term Labor MP Chansey Paech was appointed Speaker following a minor scandal that forced Kezia Purick to step down as Speaker.)