ALP 3.6%
Incumbent MP
Manuel Brown, since 2023.
Geography
Top End. Arafura covers the Tiwi Islands, the Coburg peninsula and western Arnhem Land, including Gunbalanya and Maningrida.
Redistribution
Arafura regained the Vernon Islands from Nelson.
History
The electorate of Arafura was created in 1983, and for most of its history the seat has been held by Labor MPs.
Bob Collins won Arafura for Labor in 1983. Collins had first won the seat of Arnhem in 1977, and was elected leader of the territory Labor Party in 1981. Collins served as Labor leader until 1986. He resigned from Arafura in 1987 to run for the Senate. He served as a Senator for the Northern Territory until 1998.
Labor’s Stan Tipiloura won Arafura at the 1987 election. He was re-elected in 1990, but suffered from kidney failure and died in office in 1992, aged 35.
Former VFL footballer Maurice Rioli won Arafura for Labor in 1992, and held the seat until his retirement in 2001.
Labor candidate Marion Scrymgour won Arafura in 2001. Scrymgour was appointed as a minister in the Labor government in 2003. She became Deputy Chief Minister in 2007, following the retirement of chief minister Clare Martin and the transition to Paul Henderson’s leadership.
Scrymgour resigned her ministries and moved to the backbench in February 2009, and in June 2009 she resigned from Labor to sit as an independent. This left Labor as a minority government. Scrymgour’s time on the crossbench was short. She returned to Labor in August 2009 after another Labor MP, Alison Anderson, also resigned from the party. Scrymgour retired in 2012.
Labor narrowly lost Arafura to the Country Liberal Party for the first time in 2012, with CLP candidate Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu winning the seat.
Kurrupuwu resigned from the CLP in 2014, and shortly after joined the Palmer United Party along with two colleagues. Kurrupuwu and his colleagues did not stay in PUP for very long – later that year, Kurrupuwu returned to the CLP and his two colleagues again became independents.
Kurrupuwu ran again for the CLP in 2016, but lost to Labor’s Lawrence Costa amidst a swing of over 7%.
Lawrence Costa was re-elected in 2020, but died in December 2022.
The subsequent by-election was won easily by Labor candidate Manuel Brown.
- Manuel Brown (Labor)
- Yanja Thompson (Country Liberal)
Assessment
Brown should easily win a full term in 2024.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lawrence Costa | Labor | 1,269 | 49.0 | +0.6 |
| Gibson Illortaminni | Country Liberal | 1,041 | 40.2 | +4.4 |
| Tristan Mungatopi | Independent | 199 | 7.7 | +3.5 |
| George Laughton | Territory Alliance | 82 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Informal | 142 | 5.2 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lawrence Costa | Labor | 1,388 | 53.6 | -3.7 |
| Gibson Illortaminni | Country Liberal | 1,203 | 46.4 | +3.7 |
2023 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Manuel Brown | Labor | 2,038 | 66.7 | +17.7 |
| Leslie Tungatalum | Country Liberal | 897 | 29.4 | -10.7 |
| Alan Middleton | Federation | 120 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Informal | 159 | 4.9 |
2023 by-election two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Manuel Brown | Labor | 2,113 | 69.2 | +15.6 |
| Leslie Tungatalum | Country Liberal | 942 | 30.8 | -15.6 |
Booth breakdown
There were no ordinary polling places in Arafura at the 2020 election. Over 80% of votes were cast through two mobile polling teams.
The CLP narrowly won the second mobile team, but Labor won a comfortable majority with the first team.
The remaining votes (including absent and postal votes) favoured Labor with 56% of the two-party-preferred vote.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mobile 2 | 47.4 | 1,240 | 45.4 |
| Mobile 1 | 60.3 | 1,024 | 37.5 |
| Other votes | 55.9 | 469 | 17.2 |
Polling places surrounding Arafura at the 2020 NT election
Majority Aboriginal seat, both major party candidates Aboriginal.
Should be a fairly safe retain for Labor. I can’t see it flipping.
The by-election result wasn’t a fluke after all…. The margin is still well over 20%. Likely will be a safe Labor seat until the sitting MP retires.