ALP 26.4%
Incumbent MP
Natasha Fyles, since 2012.
Geography
Northern Darwin. Nightcliff covers the suburbs of Nightcliff and Rapid Creek, and part of Coconut Grove.
Redistribution
Nightcliff expanded slightly to take in part of Coconut Grove from Fannie Bay. This reduced the Labor margin from 26.7% to 26.4%.
History
The electorate of Nightcliff has existed since the first NT assembly election in 1974. Labor has held Nightcliff since 2001.
Nightcliff was first won by independent Dawn Lawrie, who held the seat until 1983.
The CLP’s Stephen Hatton won Nightcliff in 1983. Hatton served as chief minister from 1986 to 1988, and held Nightcliff until 2001.
Hatton retired in 2001, and Nightcliff was won by Labor’s Jan Aagaard. Aagaard held Nightcliff for three terms. She served as a minister from 2001 to 2003, and as Speaker from 2005 until 2012, when she retired.
Labor’s Natasha Fyles won Nightcliff in 2012, and she was re-elected in 2016.
Candidates
- Melita McKinnon (Territory Alliance)
- Natasha Fyles (Labor)
- Steve Doherty (Country Liberal)
- Billee McGinley (Greens)
- Shelley Landmark (Animal Justice)
Assessment
Nightcliff is the safest Labor seat in the Territory.
2016 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Natasha Fyles | Labor | 2,485 | 60.9 | +25.3 | 61.0 |
| Ted Dunstan | Country Liberal | 868 | 21.3 | -11.1 | 21.6 |
| Matt Haubrick | Greens | 726 | 17.8 | +11.0 | 16.7 |
| Others | 0.6 | ||||
| Informal | 78 | 1.9 |
2016 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Natasha Fyles | Labor | 3,049 | 76.9 | +17.8 | 76.4 |
| Ted Dunstan | Country Liberal | 918 | 23.1 | -17.8 | 23.6 |
Booth breakdown
Nightcliff contains one ordinary election-day booth, plus pre-poll and other votes. Labor won massive majorities in every vote category.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Nightcliff | 18.0 | 78.2 | 1,976 | 45.5 |
| Pre-poll | 13.3 | 73.9 | 1,559 | 35.9 |
| Other votes | 20.2 | 76.8 | 805 | 18.5 |
Greens seem to be targeting this seat. Getting Fyles below 50% will be a big challenge, but possible in a small seat and against the backdrop of a not particularly progressive ALP government.
TA and I think even the CLP preferenced Greens over Labor in the Johnston byelection (and Greens put ALP last). That seemed like a one off but maybe TA/CLP would appreciate the chance to deprive Labor of a seat towards majority.
In the Nightcliff booth at the federal election, Greens tied with the CLP for 2nd, and Labor on 42% would be vulnerable to a preference snowball.
Perhaps a likely ALP retain but not “nothing to see here” like other ALP strongholds.
Based on the 2 booths in Solomon within Nightcliff (Nightcliff and Rapid Creek) the results here are
ALP: 39.2
GRN: 28.1
LIB: 17.5
OTH: 15.2
If the Libs were to preference the Greens they could win here, but given this is the chief ministers seat I’d expect the Greens to not be able to poll as well. But you’d think given the small size of NT electorates, that it should be pretty easy to doorknock every household.
The newest NT election poll makes it hard to see who will finish second. The CLP is well ahead of Labor in the bombshell poll that was recently released, but I wouldn’t expect them to win a safe Labor seat like Nightcliff especially given that it’s Natasha Fyles’ seat (even though it was once a safe CLP seat back in the day). But then of course the Labor vote could swing to the CLP and to the Greens.
ABC reports that Fyles will step down as leader, but remain as member for Nightcliff. CLP victory at the next election on Sportsbet has dropped from $4 to $3.50.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-19/northern-territory-chief-minister-natasha-fyles-to-resign/103245954
Is this a record of new Premiers and Chief ministers in a calendar years period?
@douglas good money nt govt gonna get flogged
Since my comment, odds have dropped again to $2.60. I did well to get in at $4. Agreed John. Daniel, a cursory glance points to 1857, where there were 2 changes of premier in Victoria (from one, to another, then back to the first), 1 in New South Wales, 3 in South Australia and 3 in Tasmania, for a total of 12 unique premiers across those four colonies. If anyone finds a year with more changes, I should like to hear of it.
@douglas me too. i put money on the qld liberals too. i would wager the next election cycle the only safe govt will be wa for labor albeit the libs will do better without mark mcgowan and of course the federal govt wont be in majority if they get in at all.
and the act which lets face is no contest
Definitely a viable Greens target now
CLP now at $2.25. The rush is on. I would suggest that Victoria will remain with Labor at the next election from the strength of the 2022 result. The Coalition requires a uniform swing of 7.6%, which I do not expect it to receive. Labor will lose seats, but the Victorian coalition is rightly considered one of the weakest in the country. With the Deeming suit yet to come, Pesutto is losing valuable time to get clear air and build momentum, especially against a government with plenty of room for improvement.
I don’t see Labor holding office after this scandal also in November the Redbridge poll has ALP tpp 56.5%/43.5% LNP.
Sorry I mean LNP’s way 56.5%/43.5%
I agree Douglas,
The Victorian LNP seem to be more interested in fighting amongst themselves rather than being an alternative government.
SpaceFish, unlikely that it was 56/44, likely was 60/40 because the CLP was like 20 points ahead of Labor on the primaries, looked allot like QLD 2012 primaries to me.
@spacefish pesutto won’t be leader in 2026. Once he’s gone and the libs get a real leader deeming will be back in and they will hit the gas. Allen is a useless premier just like miles in qld
John, woah there, you wish lol. No way Brad Battin makes any sort of appeal down there, actually there will be the 70 seats for Labor someone said if Battin is leader. Battin is a right-winger loved by Sky-News.
Im not sure how being more right-wing is “standing for something” all I see is racist, divisive policies that make work in QLD but will never work in Victoria. And Deeming will hurt them even more. Be my guest by supporting the party becoming more right-wing but you are just gifting us 30 years in power, fine by me!
The same people who think Deeves was a hero and got trounced in Warringah. Nobody is learning any lessons here because people are in a constant state in denial. I remember in the UK, when Labour shifted too far to the left they were out of power for a long time, same will happen here if the conservatives don’t move to the centre and actually stand for policies that moderates can vote for.
Anyone who believes radical conservative, anti-welfare, anti-migration, pro-austerity, policies can win over swing voters, think again!
I’ll start watching Sky News once they start getting a grip on reality. (Which I doubt they will)
I respect anyones views, I respect those on the right, but they should explain why they think it is “electable” what’s the case that it can win other than “Labor is bad” “Dan Andrews is bad”??
Betting on the CLP now suspended.
@daniel t who said anything about Brad Battin? Even if he was I think your over estimating Labor. The star is in paralysimg debt Labor is going backwards federally and Jacinta Allen is hardly popular. Any half decent liberal opposition could have won the 22 election but the Vic libs were a shbles I reckon O’Brien would have won or done better the guy at least. The nats proved being conservative and sticking to your values works they toppled 3 independents and i might add here in benambra we stopped Hawkins from getting in despite having aho es and McGowan trying to insert her into the seat.
John, the country is way different to the city, here is the city we value progressive ideas, something that in the country doesn’t work. they are very traditional in the country, and making promises such as capping flight prices to Melbourne, and the anti-lockdown stuff are huge vote winners in those regions.
You should come down to Melbourne and speak to voters, the right-wing politicians I speak about are seen as fascists here. you don’t even need to walk more than a block. This area is also very woke (something that I don’t like so we probably agree on that) But nethertheless it is the way it is, the Liberals need to adapt to changing opinions on many issues or they will become further irrelevant
I only said Battin because he came within a vote of beating Pessutto and is seen by the media as the only ”viable” replacement to Pessutto should he be ousted.
Take it from me, I am not happy with the way Labor is governing and would consider supporting a premier Pessutto. (Just like how I wouldn’t mind Malcolm Turnbull to come back as prime minister). but anything on the christian right like a John Howard, Morrison, Abbott (even a Henry Bolte type liberal as premier) would be a No from me. and even Henry Bolte in the 70’s realized the party had to change to win in Melbourne.
Hamer was a very successful premier of Victoria and the Liberal party needs to embrace his policies and style more than not if they wish to govern again.
@daniek t it’s not the inner city they need to win it’s the outer suburban seats they can win by focusing on the working class voters that Labor has abandoned by going to far to the left. The federal libs have got the idea and that’s where their future is. They won’t win back teal voters but they can appeal to the working class who don’t care about gender billcrap and green energy they want cost of living and economic issues to vote on. When the money runs out the average voter will swing back to the libs
My knowledge is that Fed Libs aims to win working class voters is ironically be those who are today aged 30-45 rather than those aged 45+ as:
– New Generation of blue collar workers are actually less unionised than previous generations
– Workchoices is still a memory to older working class voters
– Fed Libs has placed more emphasis to TAFE
@John
you make great points. One Point i would would say and we had a great discussion on the Bruce thread recently is that support or opposition to LGBT issues is often not determined by education or income. Often this is determined by religiosity. You mentioned Gender Ideology, in an outer suburban/peri-urban seat like Hastings i dont think an anti-trans approach will gather votes because the area is one of the least religious. Paul Mercurio who was a surprise winner actually incorporated the trans/LGBT flags into his corflutes. The Hunter Region voted strongly (above national average for SSM) and has an above % of people who claim no religion. The areas that are most strongly conservative about LGBT are CALD areas especially with large concentrations of Muslims such as Blaxland, Calwell, Watson etc. However, i dont think the Muslim vote as up for grabs by the Libs nor are the Libs seeking to win the Muslim vote especially in light of recent geopolitical events.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2022/bruce2022
@nimalan im not saying campaign on anti trans im saying campaign on bread and butter issues. I think paul mecurio won based on name recognition tbh. hunter would be up for grabs in 2025 pre redistribution but it may till depending on how the reditribution falls. i reckon the libs will fare well in dunkley but dont know if it will be enough to win the seat at the by election
my redistributed bruce would probably be comeptitive for the libs
@ John Totally agree about campaigning on bread and butter issues thats exactly what i said in the Whitlam thread as well in the aftermath of the voice referendum. I said my advice to Albo would be to spend the rest of this term of parliament focused on bread and butter issues and will need an economic narrative come May 2025.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2022/whitlam2022
@nimalan his problem is the same as the libs with the teal except hes fighting the greens on the left as well. the libs have to let those teal seats go and focus on middle australia. the benefit the lib have over labor though is once those independents retire those seats will be back in play. personally i think all but two are retakeable. being warringah where zali stegall is entrenched and wentworth which is bound to take in labor voting areas. indi i believe is a wildcard and i think HH can be beaten but that will depend on the redistribution and the candidate/campaign strategy the libs go with. and those candidates were taking on an incumbent govt which obviously has issues built up. theyve yet to face the liberals coming from opposition and the prospect of a hung parliament.
Daniel T: it depends how far back you want to go. It’s the first with five changes since 1952 but in 1901 there were seven.
Find it staggering that CLP was ever $4 in the first place let alone that those odds did not move after the Redbridge poll (which I don’t entirely credit but still…) and only moved once Fyles went which was probably a positive for Labor.
and yes 1857 as noted by douglas with nine changes of Premier appears to be the all time winner. There were a few other years in the colonial period with seven.
@ John
Both the Libs/Nats have proposed boundaries that would make Hunter stronger for Labor but Paterson more Coalition-friendly maybe a sign they are more interested in Paterson than Hunter. With respect to Teal seats Warringhah is probably a unique case when Zali faced deeply unpopular Liberal candidates in 2019 and 2022 who lost votes in places like Mosman, Clontarf, Seaforth which Frydenburg, Zinnerman, Falinksi etc would not have lost so it may not be a strength about Zali being entrenched rather she did not face competition. IMHO the Teal seats are still economically-right wing. Once the redistribution is finalized we would be in a better position to see which seats each party would target.
@Kevin
I suspect people like myself and john who are keenly aware of political goings-on make up a small percentage of the betting public, whereas the overwhelming majority, in control of fluctuations in odds, is composed of sporting fans who saw Fyles resign on the news and looked up the NT odds for a laugh. Sportsbet hardly has much more of an idea than these sporting fans, as was evidenced by the Greens paying $17 in Ryan last year, as I recall reading here. Money to be made (and inevitably lost) here.
@douglas
I got Greens to win Ryan at $34!
As someone who has worked in gambling, I can give you the answer – The operators just don’t care about getting the odds right for election betting. It has tiny volume, runs very infrequently, and only serves as a marketing ploy with the hopes that maybe it’ll interest people like us enough to place bets on horses or major sports. Any loss they make on election betting is tiny relative to the rest of their platform, and they can write it off as marketing spend.
@ ippnimalan I never bet agai St my own team
@nimalan I’ve just done an anti clockwise rotation with shorthand and hunter to bring both closer to quota. I’ve moved new England into lyne whilst shedding territory to calare and Parkes as well as taking some from Parkes. Then lyne returns Maitland and the Northern parts of Port Stephens in exchange for the eastern parts. The problem with the liberal proposal is they’ve abolished the close to quota calare and split Macquarie in order to compensate. This has been with opposition in calare and is an obvious attempt to get rid of a division that is no longer under there control.
How are the Liberals going to campaign on bread and butter issues, exactly? They have nothing to offer on building affordable housing or lowering the price of groceries. From what I can see, the best they have is first home buyer grants (which have been proven repeatedly to simply inflate the housing market further) and tax cuts, which for Stage 3 are largely going to the reasonably well-off rather than the average household. Their saving grace is that Labor were silly enough to agree to Stage 3 too and too stubborn to reform it to primarily favour average income earners.
I think the path to victory for the Liberals is the same story of the last two changes of governing party – if the incumbent crashes and burns.
@wilson the current governement is driving up the cost of living with its zealot style approach t clean energy. the libs will scale it back and that will ease the power price rises and everything as a result. 2025 will either be a hung parliament or a liberal win. at the moment im leaning towards a labor minority govt but we all know how that worked out last time
John, I think it the minority government was a fine one, but it suffered in the polls because the media pilloried them relentlessly. I don’t think that sort of media campaign will ever be as effective again, since public trust in mainstream media has eroded with time, with social media becoming more influential.
As for electricity bills, that’s a promise the Liberals can’t deliver on quickly, because generation capacity cannot be built in a three year term, especially Dutton’s favoured solution of nuclear energy. We’ll how well such a campaign goes, but I think it would be a significant risk of triggering a backlash after a term if electricity bills don’t fall significantly.
@wilson your in the minortity then because the majority of australia didnt like it. personally i wouldnt mind it happenign again only helps us. as long as dutton doesnt make the same mistakes abbott did in govt
The inability for Australia to cope with a minority or coalition governments is symptomatic of a pathological immaturity in our political culture. Many countries function just fine with constant hung parliaments. If it’s a bad thing, why bother having a parliament?
@Nicholas, This might be because Australians are amongst the most politically apathetic developed country due to their preference for stability and tall poppy syndrome (especially outside the inner city). I think the cycle of lacking political awareness has attributed to the:
– Weaker political participation meaning protest will not sway the nation unlike France and America (either from low participation numbers and/or participants are from the vocal minority rather than the common man)
– The failure of the Voice Referendum in addition to many other past referendums
– The necessity to retain compulsory voting (I bet less than 50% would even participate in most elections if it wasn’t compulsory)
@because the last one was basically Frankenstein monster. A Labor party split between left and right, radical greens and left and right independents. The ones that function have similar views and can agree on most things.
And yet John, the 2010-2013 parliament passed more bills than any other, including a climate action bill that actually worked at cutting emissions. There was nothing wrong with that government in terms of parliamentary function, they were just rubbished every single day by an absurdly hostile media that attacked everything about Gillard, from her rise to power to her fashion choices and marital status. And who can forget them putting Rudd on the front page in a Nazi uniform close to the 2013 election.
I think while that government suffered in the short term, it will have paved the way for a greater level of acceptance of minority governments in future. I imagine it will be like how Labor’s changes of Prime Minister were received with outrage and fury by the media at the time, but the Liberals’ subsequent changes of Prime Minister were treated as routine because a precedent had been set. And as I said previously, I think the media’s campaign against that government was a pyrrhic victory for them, as their over-the-top antipathy contributed to a lower level of public trust in them as an institution.
@wilson passing more bills or laws is not something to be proud of. The majority of Australians disagreed with the climate action bill because it caused the cost of living specifically power bills to go up. Australia is a very small polluter when you compare us globally. Yea that’s the argument of someone on the losing side. They were no more friendlier to the coalition in particular Scomo.
Gillard was was going down the moment she went back.on her promise “there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead”. And tbh I’m fine with minority govt coming back in 2025 iylt will just make you more bearable in 2028. And it will force the teals to show their true colours the ones that are left that is. If minority govt was so good they would be delivering it all the time. You saw how bad it was when 1 greens mo was running the govt imagine how bad it will be when they have 4+. We will gladly take on a Labor minority govt again in 2028. If it was so good people wouldn’t have wiped out Labor in 2013 the media influences less then you think look how badly they went hard on the yes campaign and the voters said no. The voters always get it right.
I think it’s definitely something to be proud of, but you’re entitled to your views. And if the voters always got it right, we’d never have bad governments.
@ John
The State Labor Governments of South Australia & Victoria have been the effective at reducing emissions and increase the % of Renewable Energy while the economy and population have grown and this has not caused any backlash. I think the transition to cleaner energy will have to be done methodically and progressively and not all at once. Regarding minority government, Labor could be forced to a minority government even without the Libs making major gains they could lose Richmond & Macnamara to the Greeens, a seat to a Dai Le Style independent etc even with The Libs losing Bradfield to the Teals & Sturt to maybe the Greens. The Difference between 2010 and now is that Labor during this term has been able to get all its key legislation passed if the CPRS has passed in 2009 then even if there was a minority government in 2010, then it would be quite different there would not have been all the anti-carbon tax rallies etc and the Coalition maybe the time of the 2013 election would have moved on from being anti-ETS. So if Labor is forced to a minority government in 2025 there is actually nothing really new legislation they need to pass with respect to Climate change they have already passed net zero & Safegurard mechanism plus they do not need to sign a formal agreement with the Greens for confidence and supply they can in the event of a hung parliament simply dare the Greens to vote with the Coalition on a no confidence motion so they do not actually need to concede anything to form government and simply negotiate each legislation. I think if there a pro-climate change majority in parliament in 2025 by the time of the 2028 election the Libs would moderate and move on.
@nimalan SA has rolling blackouts during peak power usage and actually has to import electricity from Victoria and Victoria has more debt than qld nsw and tas combined. That’s mainly because the opposition in Vic is useless.
This libs will gain seats at the next election it probly won’t be enough to form government. We will see another Labor greens independent government and as I stated were fine with that because it will make those teal seats and marginal Labor seats all the more easier to win. The greens will absolutely use their power to form government with Labor. Because if the greens don’t agree to support them it will force another election which Labor would lose. The greens know they have Labor over a barrel and Labor will give them what they want. The libs won’t moderate especially under Peter Dutton because if they do they will lose voters from their base to other right of centre parties because that’s what happened under turn bull. People aren’t going to switch from Labor to liberal on climate change and other woke policies and this has failed everything the libs have tried it.
I always find it comical when someone considers climate change, a scientific fact, to be “woke”.
No we consider your approach and called solution woke when in act it will make no difference what we do and only cause higher prices for us and by scientific fact you mean the fact as certain people aligned with your views opinion