Stuart – NT 2016

CLP 5.5%

Incumbent MP
Bess Price, since 2012.

Geography
Outback. Stuart covers a massive western part of the Northern Territory. The seat comes close to Katherine at its northern end, runs down the Western Australian border covering western parts of the NT outback, reaching down to areas just to the west of Alice Springs.

Redistribution
Stuart shifted south. The electorate previously surrounded Katherine. Parts of the seat to the north-east of Katherine were moved into Arnhem, parts north-west were moved into Daly and parts to the south-east were moved into Barkly. On the southern border, Stuart extended further south to capture outback areas to the west of Alice Springs.

History
The electorate of Stuart has existed since the first Northern Territory assembly election in 1974. The seat was held by Labor continuously from 1983 to 2012.

Roger Vale won Stuart for the Country Liberal Party from 1974 until 1983, when he moved to the new Alice Springs-based seat of Braitling. He held Braitling until his retirement in 1994.

Labor’s Brian Ede won Stuart in 1983. He held the seat until 1996, leading Labor to the 1994 election.

Peter Toyne won Stuart for Labor at the 1996 by-election. He held the seat for the next ten years, serving as a minister in the Labor government from 2001 to 2006, when he resigned from Parliament.

Labor’s Karl Hampton won the 2006 by-election. He was re-elected in 2008, but lost in a shock result in 2012, with an 18.6% swing electing the Country Liberal Party’s Bess Price.

Candidates

• Andi Bracey (1 Territory)
• Scott McConnell (Labor)
• Bess Nungarrayi Price (Country Liberal)

Stuart (Independent)

Assessment
Bess Price would be expected to benefit from her incumbency, but she would need to hold on to most of the large swing she gained in 2012 – if there is a swing back to Labor, Price will struggle to hold her seat.

2012 result

2012 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
There are four booths contained in the current boundaries of Stuart. Two of these booths have been transferred from the seat of Namatjira. Voters who cast votes at remote polling stations make up roughly half of the electorate.

The Country Liberal Party won 58.5% of the two-party-preferred vote in the mobile vote, and 55% of the pre-poll vote.

The CLP won large majorities of the vote in Hermannsburg and Papunya, which were included in Namatjira at the last election. The CLP failed to win a majority in Lajamanu and Yuendumu.

The First Nations political party polled a majority of the primary vote in Lajamanu, and close to 30% in Hermannsburg and Yuendumu, but polled very poorly in Papunya. The FNP polled 11.5% of the mobile vote in remote communities.