ALP 8.9%
Incumbent MP
Lauren Moss, since 2014.
Geography
Northern Darwin. Casuarina covers suburbs in the outer north-west of Darwin, including Brinkin, Tiwi, Casuarina, Nakara, Lyons, Lee Point and part of Alawa.
Redistribution
Casuarina lost part of Alawa to Johnston and gained the remainder of Lyons and a small area at the southwestern corner of the suburb of Wanguri from Wanguri.
History
The electorate of Casuarina has existed since the first NT assembly election in 1974. The CLP held the seat until 2001, and Labor have held it ever since.
The CLP’s Nick Dondas won Casuarina in 1974 and held the seat until 1994. He later represented the Northern Territory in the House of Representatives from 1996 until 1998.
Peter Adamson won Casuarina in 1994, beating future Labor chief minister Clare Martin.
Adamson lost Casuarina in 2001 to Labor’s Kon Vatskalis. Adamson later served as Lord Mayor of Darwin from 2002 to 2008.
Vatskalis was immediately appointed to the ministry, serving in the ministry until the government’s defeat in 2012.
Vatskalis resigned from parliament in 2014, and the subsequent by-election was won by Labor candidate Lauren Moss.
Candidates
- Giovanna Webb (Country Liberal)
- Lauren Moss (Labor)
Assessment
Labor is likely to win Casuarina with relative ease, although the sitting MP has not had a long time to build up a personal vote.
2012 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Kon Vatskalis | Labor | 2,512 | 59.3 | -4.8 | 59.4 |
| Jane Johnson | Country Liberal | 1,724 | 40.7 | +5.3 | 40.6 |
| Informal | 89 | 2.1 |
2014 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lauren Moss | Labor | 1,579 | 42.1 | -17.2 |
| Harry Kypreos | Country Liberal | 1,525 | 40.6 | -0.1 |
| Michael Connard | Greens | 412 | 11.0 | +11.0 |
| George Mamouzellos | Independent | 99 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Trevor Jenkins | Independent | 78 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Jack Henderson | Independent | 36 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Trudy Campbell | Citizens Electoral Council | 25 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 133 | 3.4 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lauren Moss | Labor | 2,072 | 55.2 | -4.1 |
| Harry Kypreos | Country Liberal | 1,682 | 44.8 | +4.1 |
Booth breakdown
There are two booths in Casuarina: Nakara and Tiwi.
The Labor vote in 2012 was higher in Nakara at 63%, compared to 58.6% in Tiwi. Labor’s vote was 53.6% amongst pre-poll voters.
There was a bigger swing against Labor in Nakara in 2014, with their vote dropping to 55% while in Tiwi the vote dropped to 57%, a swing of less than 2%. The CLP managed a narrow win on the pre-poll vote.
2012 booth breakdown
| Voter group | ALP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Nakara | 63.0 | 2,002 | 48.4 |
| Tiwi | 58.6 | 857 | 20.7 |
| Pre-poll | 53.6 | 547 | 13.2 |
| Other votes | 54.7 | 727 | 17.6 |
2014 booth breakdown
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Nakara | 11.6 | 55.1 | 2,026 | 54.0 |
| Tiwi | 10.8 | 56.9 | 1,270 | 33.8 |
| Pre-poll | 10.4 | 49.8 | 251 | 6.7 |
| Postal | 6.8 | 52.7 | 207 | 5.5 |