Arafura – NT 2016

CLP 2.4%

Incumbent MP
Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu, since 2012.

Geography
Top End. Arafura covers the Tiwi Islands, the Coburg peninsula and western Arnhem Land, including Gunbalanya and Maningrida.

Redistribution
Arafura lost the Kakadu national park and part of Arnhem Land to the neighbouring seat of Arnhem. This change increased the Country Liberal margin from 1% to 2.4%.

History
The electorate of Arafura was created in 1983, and for most of its history the seat was held by Labor MPs.

Bob Collins won Arafura for Labor in 1983. Collins had first won the seat of Arnhem in 1977, and was elected leader of the territory Labor Party in 1981. Collins served as Labor leader until 1986. He resigned from Arafura in 1987 to run for the Senate. He served as a Senator for the Northern Territory until 1998.

Labor’s Stan Tipiloura won Arafura at the 1987 election. He was re-elected in 1990, but suffered from kidney failure and died in office in 1992, aged 35.

Former VFL footballer Maurice Rioli won Arafura for Labor in 1992, and held the seat until his retirement in 2001.

Labor candidate Marion Scrymgour won Arafura in 2001. Scrymgour was appointed as a minister in the Labor government in 2003. She became Deputy Chief Minister in 2007, following the retirement of chief minister Clare Martin and the transition to Paul Henderson’s leadership.

Scrymgour resigned her ministries and moved to the backbench in February 2009, and in June 2009 she resigned from Labor to sit as an independent. This left Labor as a minority government. Scrymgour’s time on the crossbench was short. She returned to Labor in August 2009 after another Labor MP, Alison Anderson, also resigned from the party. Scrymgour retired in 2012.

Labor narrowly lost Arafura to the Country Liberal Party for the first time in 2012, with CLP candidate Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu winning the seat.

Kurrupuwu resigned from the CLP in 2014, and shortly after joined the Palmer United Party along with two colleagues. Kurrupuwu and his colleagues did not stay in PUP for very long – later that year, Kurrupuwu returned to the CLP and his two colleagues again became independents.

Candidates

• Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu (Country Liberal)
• Jon Lotu (1 Territory)
• Tristan Mungatopi (Independent)
• Lawrence Costa (Labor)

Assessment
Arafura is a traditional Labor seat and was only lost to the CLP in 2012, when Labor’s vote collapsed in remote indigenous electorates. Kurrupuwu’s slim margin could be vulnerable if Labor rebounds, but Northern Territory voters are notoriously loyal to incumbent MPs, which could help the sitting member.

2012 result

2012 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
There are three booths contained in the current boundaries of Arafura: Gunbalanya, Maningrida and Nguiu.

The Country Liberal Party won a massive 80.7% vote after preferences in Nguiu, the largest booth.

The ALP won large majorities of over 60% of the vote after preferences in the other two booths. The Greens vote was very high in these booths, with the Greens and First Nations parties both polling more than Labor or the CLP in Maningrida.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote amongst pre-poll votes, mobile votes and other votes.