Northern Beaches council election, 2024

I’ll jump in with the first one.

The big news over the last few days was Michael Gencher defecting from Your Northern Beaches to the Liberal Party, shifting the numbers to 6 Liberals and 5 YNB.

The critical story from this will now be on two seats, being whether the Liberal Party and YNB can successfully defend their 2nd seats in the Pittwater and Frenches Forest Wards respectively.

Frenchs Forest and Narrabeen are definitely the wards to watch. With Michael Regan ineligible to run again and Jose Menano-Pirez having nowhere near the profile of MR I don’t see them retaining the second YNB seat in FF, although there have been rumours of the current Mayor Sue Heins moving from Curl Curl to Frenchs Forest to defend it.

In Narrabeen, a serious GRN contender could take the final position from De Luca (IND) as the 2021 election saw an 18-year-old come within 700 votes. Due to OPV, Labor running in either ward could hurt GRN chances as Labor votes tend to exhaust after first preference due to poor preference discipline, LIB ‘just vote one’ messaging and a lack of volunteers to hand out HTVs on booths.

Margins:
Frenchs Forest Ward
YNB 6.3% vs GRN

Narrabeen Ward
IND 2.8% vs GRN

I agree with Ethan in Narrabeen being fascinating. The Ind running in that ward is Vincent De Luca, a former staffer for former Liberal MLC and David Clarke Supporter Marie Ficarra. De Luca was kicked out of the Liberal Party after he ran for pre-selection against Brad Hazzard for Wakehurst, lost and then ran as an independent anyway. His main support base is the Netball Community.

My position at this stage for seats:
Pittwater Ward – 1 Lib, 1 Grn, 1 Marginal Seat (Lib vs YNB)
Frenches Forest Ward – 1 YNB, 1 Lib 1 Marginal Seat (3-Cornered Contest between YNB, Lib and Grn)
Narrabeen Ward – 1 YNB, 1 Lib 1 Marginal (IND vs Grn)
Curl Curl Ward – 1 YNB, 1 Lib, 1 Grn
Manly Ward – 1 Lib, 1 GFM, 1 Marginal (Grn vs YNB)

This would make the council:
LIB – 5 Likely
YNB – 3 Likely
Grn – 2 Likely
Others – 1 Likely (GFM)
Marginal – 4

Is YNB considered centrist or are they teal independents? Or are they more conservative leaning independents like the new Independent MP who succeeded Brad Hazzard? (Sorry forgot the names)

The independent MP, Regan, is the leader of YNB.

@Ethan how are you working out margins for multi-member wards? Unlike Queensland, there are no single-member wards in NSW (the last ones were abolished back when the Botany Bay Council was abolished), so all wards in NSW are elected using proportional voting (some wards in Queensland like Ipswich wards are multi-member and proportionally elected but most are single-member like in Brisbane, the Gold Coast, Townsville, Cairns, etc, while like other states/territories some councils are unwarded).

It’s more complicated, but if you look at the distribution of preferences you can often calculate what percentage of the vote needed to flip to change the last seat.

@Ben Raue oh okay. Thanks for that.

Hi @Daniel T – A good question and one worth explaining to everyone.

Your Northern Beaches, from its inception as Wake Up Warringah, to the last State Election, didn’t entirely have a political alignment, especially as it had taken in people from all sides of the political spectrum. It was more of a personality push under Michael Regan, who kept the movement united and focused on Council.

Recently, there had been a gradual break in YNB, with Regan now moving on to State Politics, with numerous personalities trying to place themselves as the leader of the movement in Council. It is difficult to pick up who is leading now and the situation has gotten tougher for YNB with Michael Gencher defecting to the Liberal Party. YNB still has Jose Menano-Pires, who is the former President of the very infamous Forest Brand of the Liberal Party (the branch that virtually had outright control around who would run for the party in Davidson and had a significant say on Mackellar).

It will be fascinating to see how it goes

The defection of Gencher was long on the cards and perhaps inevitable given his frustration with the Regan personality politics, and not succeeding in leadership of YNB once Regan was gone. I was not surprised at all he defected although I thought it might be as an independent.

It’s too early to call yet how things will play out. With both YNB and LIB having turn over in candidates, its harder to use incumbency as a predicter. While the LIB name matters to secure at least a councillor in each ward, its harder to say whether post Regan the same is true of YNB.

It seems Labor hasn’t given up on the Northern Beaches fully… yet… with the following registered for campaigning:

Jasper Thatcher – Curl Curl Ward (ALP Affiliation) – Registered 10/5/24

Curl Curl was Labor’s strongest Ward gaining 0.63 of a quota last time and narrowly missing out tot eh Greens.

Also for Northern Beaches:

Mandeep Singh – Narrabean Ward (No Affiliation List) – Registered 7/9/23

June Update: Not much to report but Labor looks like it’ll be running in Narrabean Ward again. The other Ward they ran in 2021 was Manly.

Susan Wright – Narrabean Ward (ALP Affiliation) – Registered 22/5/24

With Gencher and Menano-Pires having defected YNB, the race has gotten very interesting as YNB will effectively have to refresh with new candidates in Pittwater and either Curl Curl or Frenchs Forest (depending on whether Heins stays in CC or shifts to FF). They will have a bigger challenge coming into the election without Regan’s personal brand and without incumbents in 2 wards.

The Libs will presumably be running with only one new candidate (in FF as Sprott not recontesting). Karina Page will be running in Narrabeen instead of Pittwater, but I suppose has some name recognition having taken over from Rory.

Rumour going around that with Sue Heins moving to Frenches Forest Ward, room will be made for Joelene Hackman (Teal Candidate for Manly from 2023) to run for Council. This is confirming that the Teals are now starting to infiltrate and take over YNB. I do know as well that there are key foundations members of YNB who have quit the movement in protest at the infiltration of the hardcore Teals into the group.

I expect JMP to run on his own, as he is likely barred from the Liberal Party. I’ve heard rumours as well that Jacquie Scruby may run for YNB in the Pittwater Ward, which would all but confirm the take-over.

@Hawkeye I think there is no love lost between JMP and the Libs, who in any event, have finally run their Forest preselection with a new lead candidate that appears to be from out of the Forest area. The candidate movement in the Forest means its an open race for the third spot. Sue Heins is unlikely to have the same personal vote that Regan had. The new Lib won’t either. If JMP runs he will struggle with ground game at the election and be cannibalising the Lib and YNB vote alike with presumably high exhaust rate due to aforementioned ground game.

The possible beneficiary of this in the Forest would be the Greens who are the only ones actively campaigning in the Forest, depending on exhausts and preference flows.

NBC can do without JMP on it again. Ethan has been assiduously and effectively working the room in FF so the Greens should do really well.

At this stage, this is what I think we have:
1. Sarah Grattan and Ruth Robins will remain in Manly and Narrabeen Wards respectively and are expected to run again for YNB. The rumoured change is Sue Heins moving Ward to Frenches Forest and this would make room for Joelene Hackman to run in Curl Curl. There have also been rumours swirling about Jacquie Scruby running in Pittwater for YNB, but I have my doubts about this one.
2. I’m expecting Karina Page to move Ward, to make way for Michael Gencher. Unsure where at this stage but the early word was either Narrabeen or Frenches Forest.
3. No word about whether Vince De Luca will run again. He had been battling illness for a while.
4. JMP expected to run as an independent in Frenches Forest Ward

Very early prediction but, from the current intel, this would be the most likely scenario:

Liberal Party – At least 5 (I expect one in every ward)
YNB – At Least 4
Greens – At least 2
Others – 1 (GFM)

This puts up 3 seats as wild-cards:
*3rd Seat in Frenches Forest (I expect this to be a tri-cornered battle between YNB, Greens and JMP)
*3rd Seat in Narrabeen (A lot will depend on De Luca running. If he doesn’t, I expect this to be a Liberal (2nd Seat) vs YNB battle, given that De Luca generally leans towards the Right).
*3rd Seat in Pittwater (I think this will be between the Greens and the Liberal Party for the 2nd Seat

Well without the Liberals having candidates, my predictions are (in order of election ):

Manly: GFM, YNB, YNB/GRN
Curl Curl: YNB, GRN, YNB/LAB
Frenchs Forest: YNB, GRN, YNB
Narrabeen: YNB, LAB, De Luca
Pittwater: YNB, GRN, YNB/GRN

@NBC they are fielding candidates they just haven’t done it properly. It should be fixed I think.

Interesting that Labor have nominated as ‘ungrouped’, means no Labor box above the line.

@NP nope, they never submitted in the first place, and as it’s now past the deadline, it’s too bad for them, good luck next time

This council has been basically handed to YNB. They will now basically sweep the council, with the Greens as the main opposition. Sue Heins has dodged a massive bullet.

None of the current Liberal Councillors will be named in any capacity.

Following the complete cock-up with the Liberal Party, here is where I think everything will wash out:
Curl Curl – YNB, Grn, Lbr
Frenches Forest – YNB, Grn, YNB
Manly – GFM, YNB, Grn
Narrabeen – YNB, De Luca, Open
Pittwater – YNB, Grn, YNB

For the Open Narrabeen seat, I think it will be between YNB (2nd seat) and Labor

This would mean:
YNB – 7 (Possibly 8)
Grn – 4
Labor – 1 (Possibly 2)
Others 2 (GFM, De Luca)

This is how big an own goal the Liberal Party have scored. Instead of taking advantage of dissent within YNB, they have effectively handed council over to them.

Hawkeye – the lack of ATL voting boxes for Labor in Narra and CC should not be overlooked. They have also flubbed election.
Only possible wildcard is Mandeep Singh the ungrouped candidate in Pittwater. He was 2nd on the Lib ticket and accidently submitted his forms himself. Big Q whether the Libs will support his campaign or not, but winning as an ungrouped candidate is hard but not impossible if the Libs all support him.

It will be Singh from BTL, 1 YNB and 1 GRN in Pittwater. Singh is well known as he runs 4 cafes in Pittwater/Narrabeen wards that everyone goes to and the local MP Rory Amon is quite influential. YNB couldn’t find a Pittwater candidate after losing their councillor and have settled with someone not liked by the resident associations in the ward. The Greens councillor is only known in Avalon where she’s from.

The subtle Teal takeover of YNB is still playing out behind the scenes with Hackman (YNB – Curl Curl) who ran as a Teal at the NSW election in Manly planning to challenge Heins (YNB – FF) for Mayor. Councillors elect the Mayor and she’s not part of Michael Regan’s inner crew. YNB has always been a weak Labor vote party but Hackman is a very vocal far left Green/Teal type and a few of their candidates are also teal supporters

The Greens are the ones to watch now after this Lib drama. They could get 3-5 Councillors after a big door knocking campaign and decide who ends up as Mayor

I believe that this is the “most Liberal” council with zero Liberal candidates. This council is followed by Penrith.

I’d say the liberal vote propping up other parties would keep the greens out still

Mark78 – It’s widely known Hackman is only running to boost her profile and contest Manly again as a Teal in the 2027 NSW election and that she wants Mayor ASAP.

Whilst I agree she will be the most far left Councillor (even with the Greens!), she’s very active, and people noticed her during the election, whether for better or worse. The eastern side of Curl Curl Ward overlaps the Manly seat, and Grattan was already a sitting Councillor in Manly, so it makes sense for her going forward. I suspect the Greens will want Deputy Mayor in any deal with Hackman, after missing out in previous years.

However, as noted in this election profile, NBC has only ever been controlled by YNB since inception and this Council’s reputation is at rock bottom as a result, so politicking and infighting so soon post election won’t go down well with residents. The public has already lost faith in this mega amalgamated Council, and there’s no serious alternative due to the Libs drama now.

I guess that’s the way the cookie crumbles.

@Mark78 – correct and it has been the Teal take-over that is really putting a wedge through YNB. The original supporters and founders have walked away from YNB as a result of this and other rumblings internally within the group.

This is why the Liberal Party screw-up will go down as the biggest own goal on the Northern Beaches

Philip Walker (Independent) for Pittwater for the first time is running for election as a Councillor to NBC. For more information

https://friendsofmonavale.weebly.com/phil-walker—northern-beaches-council-councillor-candidate-for-pittwater-ward.html

@hawkeye_au yes Greens want Deputy Mayor in return for Hackman rolling Heins as mayor

I’m curious about why the Greens vote in Avalon Beach is so high. Any ideas?

@James Avalon Beach has a high teal vote. Here’s the 2022 federal results there:

Primaries:
* Independent (Sophie Scamps): 55.4% (+55.4%)
* Liberal (Jason Falinski): 29.0% (–12.0%)
* Greens (Ethan Hrnjak): 5.9% (–12.1%)
* Labor (Paula Goodman): 4.7% (–10.8%)
* One Nation (Darren Dickson): 2.4% (+2.4%)
* UAP (Chris Ball): 2.4% (+2.4%)
* TNL (Barry Steele): 0.3% (+0.3%)

TCP:
* Independent (Sophie Scamps): 65.5% (+65.6%)
* Liberal (Jason Falinski): 34.5% (–17.8%)

On the state level it also votes teal.

The further north you go, the older the population is and the Greener the vote is. At the federal level, it’s more teal.

The suburbs from Newport to Palm Beach are low-density and bushy. Avalon Beach is a magnet for sea-changers and tree-changers and surfers. It’s quite socially progressive and green but still economically conservative. It’s not surprising that it voted teal federally. Home and Away is filmed here as were a few other shows and movies. It’s also a hangout for celebrities and Instagram influencers.

@Votante I thought Home and Away was filmed in Palm Beach.

Anyway, furthermore to my point, Avalon Beach voted 64.2% Yes in the Voice referendum compared to 50.8% Yes in Mackellar as a whole.

Agree with above but there are signs Avalon will become more even in the future. Public school numbers dropping, families moving in from out of the NB and a popular state MP Rory Amon from the Libs. It’ll still vote left but only marginally

I think the most likely outcomes are (in order of election):

Pittwater- YNB, GRN, SINGH (We can assume based on Rory Amon’s recent post the Libs will back Singh and so he will have a lot of Liberal party apparatchiks there, given the benefit to the party to at least have 1 councillor who can access the confidential papers and answer resident queries).

Narrabeen – YNB, VDL, ???. 3rd spot is a wildcard with Labor having only BTL boxes which will hurt their level of formal votes and exclude much shot at preferences. However without a Greens candidate, if Labor has strong ground game it may pull through. VDL’s 2nd Giltenan may also possibly get up as a known local personality. YNB’s 2nd Jackson is from Manly and was just there to help Ruth fill her ticket, so not a strong candidate. VDL’s changes of getting a 2nd also boosted by the potential that Lib volunteers may join his campaign.

Curl Curl – YNB, GRN, YNB. Labor really dudded themselves out of that 3rd spot by also botching their nomination forms, as with only a BTL box as informal voting will increase and they wont pick up preferences except from those very dedicate voters below the line.

Frenchs Forest – YNB GRN YNB?. While the most conservative part of the Beaches on social issues, Stuart Sprott was well like for his protection of local trees and Lizard Rock a big local issue, where the Greens may pick up Lib voters who want to keep the Forest, well, a Forest. The Greens were always going to be a quiet achiever in this race with a strong ground game and YNB/LIB engaging in a lot of party machinations rather than campaigning.

Manly – GFM YNB GRN?. With the combined GRN/LAB vote likely to exceed any excess quota for GFM or YNB, the most likely outcome is that the 3rd spot is a race between GRN and LAB, with GRN historically outpolling Labor.

The scrutineering for this will be fascinating as there is no “natural” home for Liberal voters in most races (aside from Pittwater or Narrabeen). As such, I imagine they will go to the wind. Some who dislike the Greens will vote for YNB; those who dislike YNB or have environmental sympathies will vote Green; GFM may pick up many in Manly; Labor may pick up some as a major party; and a large contingent of informals/donkeys/penises/write ins.

When was the last time a candidate got up from BTL on NBC or previous councils?

Considering Northern Beaches has only had two elections and both of them were strongly contested by parties, I suspect never. I’ll work on a blog post analysing this topic with more nuance after the NT election.

Can confirm that from the two elections, ungrouped have never got a candidate up.

Even Alex McTaggart was grouped in his own team.

@T2107 I am not sure that ungrouped candidates in past elections are much precedent for a fairly unprecedented stuff up by the Liberals.
Most ungrouped candidates (with some exceptions and no disrespect to any in this race) are generally well meaning local crackpots or cranks, its rare they ever have any ground game, and at best might have a few family and friends helping at the bigger booths.
If the Libs choose to get behind him, Sunny Singh will have 4 wards worth of Liberal volunteers at a loose end and Rory Amon to help him with ground game at booths and drawing press, etc.

Yeah this is totally different.

Well today’s revelations re Rory Amon MP, I would say Mr Singh is now pretty toast in Pittwater. The Liberal volunteers will be demoralised and it seemed that Rory was the main driver of Singh’s strategy from all appearances.

who is mr singh?

@john ungrouped candidate in Pittwater who is a Liberal candidate that managed to get his form in. The Liberal Party have been campaigning for him.

@Votante & @NP – Thanks for explaining the demographics around Avalon Beach and how that causes the high Green/teal vote.

With the Check counts for NB Council nearing conclusion, this is what it looks like now:

Curl Curl Ward – YNB, GRN, YNB (Lock it in)
Frenches Forest Ward – YNB, YNB, YNB? (The 3rd seat is going to be ultra-tight between YNB and Greens)
Manly Ward – YNB, GFM, GRN? (Greens currently in front but will depend on what is happening with the leftover votes from YNB and GFM)
Narrabeen Ward – IND, YNB, IND (Lock it in)
Pittwater Ward – IND, YNB, GRN (Lock it in)

So the locked-down seats are
YNB – 7
GRN – 2
IND – 4 (including GFM)

YNB needs to win one of the seats from Frenches Forest or Manly to win control of NBC. If the Greens pick up both seats, then strap yourselves in because with a count of 7-4-4, NBC would be a complete cluster-fuck

@Hawkeye_au GFM almost always supports and votes with YNB, so may as well be counted as part of YNB’s block. So YNB+GFM will effectively have 8 on any outcome.

FF I see as fairly likely to fall Green, as the BTL votes seem to have favoured Ethan Hrnjak relatively speaking with now only the remaining trickle of postal votes left to be counted.

Manly is a 3 prong race between GRN GFM and YNB that will largely be determined on how Labor preferences flow. Last election Labor’s 2nd preferences split pretty evenly between all the other tickets in the race (aside from the Libs who picked up proportionally far fewer). If GFM’s preferences are distributed first, it’s difficult to say how they will fall as while they did a preference swap with YNB, their groundgame outside the major booths wasn’t strong to distribute the HTV cards (ditto with Labor). GFM did not get a full quota last election to provide any basis for comparison as to how its voters preference.

As the Greens have had the balance of power the last 2 terms of Council, it seems unlikely that 1-2 more Greens will change much in a negative way, given the personalities of their lead candidates in FF and Manly.

I see the greater problem as YNB having its 8, not needing GFM to provide at least some sort external view, and engaging in group think, without any need to seek collaboration or consensus from the other 7 councillors. Despite the big talk about being “independent” they do generally vote as a coordinated bloc, particularly on issues Regan is very invested in. The big ambitions of some of the YNB councillors and the influence of the teals over individual councillors may also prove to create too many chiefs, particularly mid-term when the role of mayor comes up for vote again.