Northern Beaches council election, 2021

My Home council and expect this to get a bit more fired up next time around, given how close the Liberal Party were to taking the Council over at the last election.

Curl Curl – YNB and LIB each got a full quota, with the Greens managing to get over the line at the 15th Count on the back of Preferences from YNB
Frenches Forest – This is YNB’s big strength area and it showed, getting 2 Quotas on Primaries, with LIB getting the 3rd on Primaries.

Manly Ward – Often the Wild Card of the Council Area (as shown from its very rich history with Independents at all 3 levels), GFM and LIB took a quota each on Primaries, before the leftover votes from GFM and Labor got YNB over for 3rd place

Narrabeen Ward – LIB and YNB won a quota each on Primary, with De Luca taking 3rd place after preferences from LIB

Pittwater – LIB were the only party to win on Primary Vote. The rest was a complete scramble between the 4 independent groups (one of which was McTaggart, who got elected at the 24th count), LAB, GRN and YNB (who got up at the 24th count along with McTaggart). This got triggered at the exclusion of Group C Independents

Confirmation of Liberal Party Head-line Candidates:
Pittwater Ward – Rory Amon (Moving from Narrabeen Ward, replacing Kylie Ferguson, who is stepping down)
Narrabeen Ward – Bianca Crvelin (Replacing Rory Amon)
Frenches Forest Ward – Stuart Sprott (No Change)
Curl Curl Ward – David Walton (No Change)
Manly Ward – Georgia Ryburn (Replacing Pat Daley, who is stepping down)

The early rumour is that Labor is pulling out of having endorsed candidates. From what I understand as well, Bob Giltinen’s Group (Curl Curl) and 1-2 of the local Independent tickets in Pittwater won’t be running as well.

Word as well that Michael Regan is moving from Curl Curl to Frenches Forest Ward to defend their two seats in that ward, which is crucial to YNB holding their minority control of NBC.

This will be fascinating to watch

This council proves a strong independent could win Mackellar in the future. This isn’t as safe as it was for the Liberals when Bishop (who was despised by her own party which lead to her dumping as candidate for Mackellar in 2016) It would be interesting to see if YNB actually contest Mackellar in near future. they could easily pull a 10-15% of the vote and if they direct them away from the coalition it could create a close contest here.

This is your classic ”Lower-L” Liberal seat and shouldn’t be taken for granted by any conservative party. They shouldn’t take this council for granted either because this is supposedly ”Blue Ribbon” territory for the Liberals.

Realistically the Libs will need maybe 35% of the primary vote to have a fighting chance but anything above 35% likely almost assures they get some sort of control whether it’s minority or a small majority. Anything below 35% they are in trouble and would produce a similar result to last time.

Labor vote could decrease in favour for YNB cancelling out any swing away from YNB to the Liberals.

Too close to call.

Daniel, I find it amazing that you can simply “characterise a seat” over someone with actual local knowledge.

First off, I can categorically tell you that the seat varies signficiantly between Conservative and small-l liberal, depending on where you go.

For example, the strongest conservative areas is around Forestville and Killarney Heights, into Seaforth and Balgowlah and also around the big ethnic centres of Narraweena and Warriewood (although that is shifting quickly for the latter).

The Small-l areas are the further North you head up the Peninsula (towards Palm Beach), around Dee Why and around Manly itself.

I can tell as well that you ignored what I wrote beforehand because I clearly stated that Labor is rumoured to be pulling out altogether. I expect this vote to split between YNB and Greens.

Along with that, the drop of Bob Giltinan is significant because his voters have traditionally been Liberal-leaning and this would be a boost to the party itself.

I expect this election to be a further consolidation between YNB and Liberal. To what extent that consolidation occurs depends mainly on Pittwater and Manly Ward, given that these are the two wards where YNB had to rely on preferences to get a seat.

Your Northern Beaches Independents has been announced and some very significant announcements:

Curl Curl – Michael Regan is moving Wards to Frenches Forest. The Number 1 Ticket Spot will be taken by Sue Heins, who moves across from Narrabeen Ward. 2nd position is former Zali Steggal advisor Louise Hislop, with 3rd place held by Ben Gozier

Frenches Forest – With Michael Regan moving into Frenches Forest from Curl Curl, there has been a significant shuffle. Penny Philpott will be stepping down and Roslyn Harrison has been bumped down the ticket, behind Sarah Baker. The big surpise here is Jose Menano-Pires taking Position 2. The reason why this is a surprise is that Jose, a former Councillor, had a leading role within one of the biggest branches of the Liberal Party. Jose and his branch played critical roles in getting Andrew Humpherson and then Jonathan O’Dea pre-selected for Davidson and had been one of Falinski’s biggest supporters. This move will guarantee that Jose will be banned for 10 years.

Manly Ward – Sarah Grattan retains her position, ahead of Chris Jackson and Piper Harrison

Narrabeen Ward – With Sue Heins moving to Curl Curl, Ruth Robins now takes the Number 1 position, ahead of Matt Adderton and Sean Moran

Pittwater Ward – Ian White is running again but I think he has been dropped to Position 3, with Position 1 taken by Michael Gencher, with Sarah Turnbull taking Position 2

My thoughts on this: This is a clear play from YNB to sweep their significant strong-hold of the Frenches Forest Ward and the pick-up of Jose will only increase their vote further. They may be doing so as well to counter the risk they they currently have, which is losing a seat in Pittwater or Manly.

@Hawkeye What a wild take. You claim to have local knowledge but don’t appear to realise there are two different seats on the Northern Beaches. You state Seaforth and Balgowlah Heights are some of the “strongest conservative areas” in the “seat” but Daniel was talking about Mackellar and yet both of those suburbs are smack bang in Warringah. Warringah recorded one of the strongest votes in favour of same-sex marriage in the country and both Balgowlah Heights and Seaforth backed Steggall over Abbott.

You also name Narraweena as another of the supposedly most conservative areas despite the fact both booths in Narraweena delivered Falinski some of his lowest votes in 2019 – and that was with the Labor candidate being a teenage uni student (much lower than the supposedly small-l liberal Palm Beach).

You name Warriewood as a “big ethnic centre”. This is a suburb with 70% born in Australia and the other top countries being England, New Zealand and South Africa (whites).

Regards to Dee Why being “small-l liberal” Dee Why is more favourable to Labor and less to the Liberals because it has a decent working class and ethnic minority element; very, very different to wealthier Greens-friendly areas like Avalon Beach.

Don’t claim “local knowledge” and then proceed to talk a load of complete rubbish.

@Hawkeye You have twice written Labor are pulling out, including in a supremely arrogant reply to Daniel “I can tell as well that you ignored what I wrote beforehand because I clearly stated that Labor is rumoured to be pulling out altogether”
What’s this then? https://www.facebook.com/brandtforthebeachesCurlCurl

@Jarrod – Classy post, especially when you don’t have any context what-so-ever about what has been going on here. Let’s deliver something for you.

First off, Daniel is very well known in these traps for making wildly outlandish comments and calls, with the vast majority of them being wrong and he did it again with Mackellar. He attempted to compare Mackellar to Warringah, hence the significant correction on my behalf and an attempt to talk about Northern Beaches Council, not Mackellar. I don’t know where he was going with it but your defence on that talking point is, frankly, laughable. This is suppose to be about Local Council and their wards and his attempts to talk federal trends is ridiculous.

You fell into the same trap when it came to mentionion Abbott vs Steggall, which was very much an across-the-seat rejection of Abbott and not indicative of the conservative vs Small L liberal voting. Indeed, if you look at the trends from the 2019 State Election, the Liberal Party’s strongest vote (and, indeed, the 2017 Council Election) was in Balgowlah and Seaforth. So your attempted comparison is a joke.

Have you been around Narraweena? I take it you have, given that I actually have a pretty good idea about whom I am talking with. The biggest ethnic community there are conservative Italians. Without giving my identity away here (here’s a hint, probably not a good idea to use your real name), I think I have a pretty good idea of it, given where I lived for half my life. Falinski is a Small-L Liberal (he is part of the left faction and a personal supporter of Turnbull) and that would explain some of the swing against him. Again, I question why you would use federal comparison as well, given that the politics between federal and local council are so far apart, they are effectively meaningless.

Warriewood and Mona Vale do have a strong ethnic centering. Just because they were born in Australia doesn’t mean that they don’t have an ethnic background. That line there is, honestly, a touch racist as well. So Bravo.

Finally, did you conveniently ignore my comment of rumoured to be pulling out altogther? They had been so quiet, its not funny. I note that they are running in Narrabeen and Curl Curl but I haven’t heard anything else. Honestly, I think they are wasting their time, especially as they recorded single digits in Pittwater, Frenches Forest and Manly. I wouldn’t be surprised if the rumours are partially true, given how pitiful their numbers were in 2017.

@Hawkeye: Firstly let’s address your bizarre and vaguely threatening comments and remember this is a politics board and if you think you know me and have something to say, feel free to send me a DM on Facebook. I won’t be holding my breath.

Why don’t you admit you got it wrong and apparently thought “the seat” (in response to Daniel’s comments about Mackellar) included as you say “Forestville and Killarney Heights, Seaforth and Balgowlah and ….Narraweena and Warriewood”.

I know Narraweena, Mona Vale and Warriewood very well. You said the biggest ethnic group in Narraweena is “conservative Italians”. That isn’t what an ethnic group is. Your assumptions that ethnic minority groups vote as some kind of conservative bloc is, itself, a touch racist and actually at odds with federal voting patterns in seats across the country. Around 1 in 10 people in Narraweena report Italian ancestry, (just 4.3% were Italian-born; with more people born in England living in Narraweena). Meanwhile more than a quarter report English ancestry. What makes an Australian-born person an “ethnic” in your books? I personally have Italian ancestry but I think of myself as any other white Australian, not as some “conservative ethnic”. You’re obviously playing on some outdated stereotype of the conservative Catholic Nonna.

The top census-reported ancestries in Warriewood are English 29.1%, Australian 23.5%, Irish 8.6%, Scottish 6.8% and Italian 3.5%. This makes Warriewood less ethnically diverse than average. Mona Vale is even less diverse: English 31.5%, Australian 24.4%, Irish 8.9%, Scottish 7.6% and German 2.9%.
I think your definition of “strong ethnic centering” (Irish instead of English, perhaps?) might be rather different to mine.

I don’t think you understand the voting intention of people in places like Balgowlah Heights. The median weekly household income in 2016 was $3,726; these are low-tax, less regulation but socially progressive small-l Liberal voters with high levels of education (48.7% with at least a Bachelor’s degree). Of course someone like James Griffin, a textbook small-l Liberal, would perform well (nevertheless his main opponent was the Greens, who achieved a large 11.6% swing). So much for that big-c conservatism. The comparison with Abbott v Steggall in 2019 is completely valid. Abbott won the Forestville booth in 2019 (52.88 vs 47.12) yet in Seaforth Steggall won 57.98 to 42.02.

Your comment Labor was rumoured to be pulling out was made after Labor announced candidates. So please don’t spread ill-informed, lazy rumours which are so easy to disprove.

Putting your casual racism aside for a moment especially claiming that Italians are not an ethnic minority, you have clearly come on here to pick a fight. I have never seen you come on here before but you have certainly made your intentions clear.

First off, this whole thing is not about politics. It’s Psephology. There will be politics as insights discussed from it but you have clearly come here to pick a fight. So ace the attitude up.

Secondly your definition of ethnic minority is ridiculous. All the classifications you have made there are either “australian” or “anglo-saxon” heritage, which are clearly the two Majority segments. Key word – majority. The fact you try to show the anglo-saxon segment as some sort of ethnic minority is, in itself, racist, because you are deliberately devaluing the standings of other ethnic groups.

Finally, with regards to Abbott v Steggall, nice attempt to cherry pick but you failed to recognize what happened to Abbott in Mosman, an area with a strong reputation for fairly conservative politics, that voted in droves against Abbott. I maintain that this was a seat-wide rejection of Abbott and your comments demonstrate but the level of partisan hackery I would expect from someone actively involved in student politics.

Do us all a favour and drop off.

Hawkeye

100% agree.

So far, I have only seen announcements from Labor for 2 wards. Unsurprisingly, they are the two wards where they stood the best chance of winning a seat at the last election.
Narrabeen – Paula Goodman will head the ticket up
Curl Curl – Brandt Clifford heads the ticket up

I haven’t seen any other announcements yet for Pittwater, Frenches Forest and Manly. Given they only recorded 5-6% in both Pittwater and Manly, along with 11% in a very narrow field in Frenches Forest, I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t run at all or run dead in those three wards and direct their votes elsewhere.

I think the days of the ALP having a real presence on the Northern beaches are over.
The demographic shifts happening are significant. The “old” ALP sympatheic areas such as Curl Curl, DY and Narraweena are $2 million entry point suburbs – for a knock down. Its cashed up tradies (who listen to 2GB) who have taken over.

The shift to the left on the Northern beaches/North Shore has happened in the very affluent suburbs such as Balgowlah heights, Clontarf, Seaforth, Manly Eastern Hill and Mosman. But this shift has not benefited the ALP (franking credits killed that stone dead) – its the Greens and Zali who are the real beneficiaries here.

So there’s really no market for the ALP to pitch to.

@Moderate – Agreed to an extent. There is still the Conservative element that exists within the western end of the Manly Ward (given the better performance for Abbott in that area). But yes, that is gentrifying quickly. We have always known Manly to act a bit more independently, should the candidate not fit. To me, I still think the move was such a seismic shock that you can’t make any other ascercion about that Federal Vote being anything but an anti-Abbott Vote. The extent of which that shift left has occured will be more evident in the next election.

But yes, definitely agree with the old ALP areas of Dee Why, Curl Curl and Narraweena not fitting that mold anymore. At a state level, Labor barely hang on to 2nd place over the Greens in the Wakehurst areas, while they still run 3rd in Manly, Pittwater and Davidson.

To be honest, at a council level, I don’t get why they still run. It’s not like NSW or Federal, where there are still Upper House seats to mop up. They would be better off pulling out of endorsement and through everything behind YNB.

Hawkeye-au – sorry to be contrary but the facts just don’t support that analysis. Abbott’s performance at the “western end” of Manly – by this I assume you mean Seaforth, was some of the worst in the whole electorate. He “achieved” well under 40% of 2PP vote, and on average 23% worse than a much lesser known Griffin achieved 6 weeks earlier.
As they are the polar opposites of the same Party (Abbott and Griffin) I think the argument that the whole of Manly is now small l liberal v green/Indy territory is well made. No room for hard right Lib figures (all of Abbott’s people) or the ALP here.

@Hawkeye: I genuinely have no clue what you’re talking about. I’m not a student and I have never been involved in student politics in my life or even a member of any parties; I view both parties with a healthy level of distrust.

I came to this site as a first time reader to read about the Northern Beaches Council election. I personally have an Italian background so again, not sure what you’re talking about accusing me of being racist against my own background. You are the one attempting to paint a whole community as conservative “ethnics”. As white people of European descent in a country with a majority being white people of European descent, I don’t classify myself as an ethnic minority. To do so does a disservice to genuine ethnic minorities such as Asian and African Australians.

I am absolutely dumb-founded by your claim I said Anglo-Saxons were a minority. I literally said the exact opposite. You completely missed the point. My point was how your claims about Warriewood and Mona Vale being “strong ethnic centres” was a complete fabrication; the census statistics prove they are Anglo-Saxon dominated areas to a much larger extent than average, especially in Sydney. I have lived and worked in this area my entire life. I know the demographic well and I’m also relying on statistics from the census. You’re stuck in the 1980s when Chinese farmers owned glasshouses at Warriewood and Seaforth voters were big-c conservatives in ex-war housing.

I have no idea why you are so rude and confrontational. Putting that aside, your claims about Labor being finished in Dee Why is another fabrication. The Dee Why booths have been trending towards Labor over the last couple of elections. Bronwyn Bishop won 60% at Dee Why Public School back in 2013, by 2019 it had slipped to under 55%. Labor actually won the Dee Why PCYC booth 51.93% – 48.07% in 2019 on a 10% swing. The Liberal Party didn’t manage better than 55% at any of the four booths in Dee Why. This was with an utterly non-existent Labor campaign and a teenager running for them.

@moderate is absolutely right. It seems your “analysis” is more based on feelings rather than facts and a lack of awareness of how things change over many years. Seaforth gave Steggall a higher vote share than elecorate-wide. Steggall won in North Balgowlah, for example, on primaries alone and 64% 2CP.

Why y’all Northern Beaches people so worked up?

@Nicholas – it is a whole different world on the beaches

Hahahaha one comment on here really cracked me up….Mona Vale being a big ethnic area. I used to live in Revesby but moved to the beaches for work (I deal with customers all day), this has to be one of the most ethnically homogeneous areas in Sydney. Some people really don’t get out much.

@Moderate – I’m just being cautious about making that call at this stage Re Abbott-Griffith. I doubt doubt that it is happening but I think the confirmation would occur at the next election, especially as the Liberal Party toss up candidates for the seat, as to the extent of how much it has shifted. The candidates lining up are more moderate than Abbott (let’s face it, most people would be more moderate than Abbott) but the question will be, to what extent. The early rumours are Tim James, Natalie Ward and Alex Dore going for pre-selection. Of them, Tim James would be the most conservative of the lot, although a lot more moderate than Abbott. The issue here would be that Tim is from Mosman and I daresay you would need someone more entrenched in the Northern Beaches.

The independents will play a crucial role in 3 of the wards. Two of them are well entrenched (McTaggart in Pittwater and De Luca in Narrabeen). Pittwater had 2 other independent tickets running around issues (I think) for Newport and Avalon respectively. This dilution of votes will mean that voter exhaustion becomes an issue in Pittwater.

A lot will depend on what tickets are announced when the deadline is reached.

I think you’ll find the potential Warringah candidates might be wider than the range suggested, and at least in one case the candidate you listed won’t be a candidate.
The challenge in COVID times will be finding somewhere to enable 1100 people get together and pre-select.

Northern Beaches Council went through the similar shenanigans in terms of an attempt for a late mayoralty change, like KRG, in line with the extension of the term beyond what was expected. Difference was Regan retaining based on the current voting lines (not surprising, TBH). He was challenged by Rory Amon (Local Liberal Councillor backed by Jason Falinski). Other major difference with KRG Council is it is unlikely that the GM will be challenged as well.

Should move on straight into election mode from here.

I’m not sure what the “shenanigans” are, but the lack of action from the state govt means they had no choice but to re-elect the mayor, and I don’t see why those councillors opposed to the current mayor are obliged to stand down. Anyway it sounds like Regan was easily re-elected.

@Ben, its was more grandstanding than anything else but yes, agreed that there was no real surprise with Regan being re-elected.

One of the 3 councils I’m following closely, Ku-ring-gai and Hornsby being the other two. Have to say I’ve enjoyed the discussion and information here. Curious to see how YNB vs LIB goes, as an example of a council with a local party. Looking at the public register and lists, you get this quick summary:

Curl Curl:
The Liberal Group & Lead Labor Candidate have registered.

Frenches Forest:
The Liberal Group & it seems an independent in Christopher Sharpe.

Manly:
The Liberal Group and the following:

Group: Manly 1st
Candidates: John Kelly, Maryann Novakovic, James Brodie

No Group: Candy Bingham (Good for Manly). ((The Good for Manly website lists Scott Porter and Sonia Walsh as the other candidates, not sure in what ballot order.))

Narrabean:
The Labor & Liberal group plus Robert Giltinan and Vincent De Luca (Councillor).

Pittwater:
The Liberal and Alex McTaggart’s (Councillor) group.

Unlike The Hills, the Liberals had their registration to campaign done back in July here! Obviously throwing resources at this council. De Luca and Manly 1st was back in July as well. McTaggart was listed as this week with Candy Bingham earlier this month. Either YNB is saving their powder dry to have official campaign materials in the last month (they do have a website) or not as many resources. Nevertheless, looking forward to seeing this contest, especially Manly Ward!

@Politics_Obsessed:
Chris Sharpe is a Labor Member. The fact that he is running as an independent in Frenches Forest likely confirms the rumour I heard about a pull-out in some wards. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is the same thing with Pittwater Ward, although I’m yet to hear any confirmation yet.

For Narrabeen, I’m very curious about Rob Giltinan running in Narrabeen, given that he has traditionally been around Curl Curl (His old tennis academy was based in North Manly, very close to where he lives).

@Hawkeye_au thanks for that information. I guess we’ll find out soon under which banner Chris Sharpe will run under when the nomination comes in.

Nominations Day 1: Pretty quiet here so far
Curl Curl & Frenches Forest no nominations finalised yet.
Manly – Sonia Walsh (As mentioned above, Good for Manly/Bingham Team)
Narrabean – 3x Liberals + Vincent De Luca
Pittwater – Rory Amon (Liberal)

Nominations Day 4 update:

Frenches Forest Ward:
The Greens are nominated but the news here is Chris Sharpe has a group all nominated too (himself, Tricia Sharpe and Christopher Burns).

Manly Ward:
Labor group has nominated.

@hawkeye_au – going off the nominations and campaign registration lists, I’d say Labor would be running in Curl Curl, Manly and Narrabean and sitting out in Frenches Forest and Pittwater. Although with Chris Sharpe running as an IND, it might confirm your rumours. Still a week to go in nominations!

Nominations Day 5: There’s been a lot more action here and surprised YNB (Your Northern Beaches) had 4 candidates nominate in one ward.

Curl Curl Ward:
2 Greens and 2 YNB candidates nominated.

Frenches Forest Ward: What a difference a day makes, all the action in nominations has come here and in Manly! While officially the groups have yet to be finalised (nominating as a candidate and then completing the group are two different processes), we can see the following:
Liberals (3 Candidates)
Greens (3 Candidates)
YNB (4 Candidates)
Independent [Chris Sharpe] (3 Candidates)

Manly Ward: This ward is being hotly contested by it seems, 6 groups! As follows:
Labor Group and Good for Manly [Bingham] Group.
Also YNB 2 Candidates, 1 Green Candidate, 1 Liberal Candidate and I assume
an independent group of John Kelly, Maryann Novakovic, James Brodie. While registered for campaigning as Manly 1st, as they are not a party under NSWEC, they will appear with the tag ‘Independent’ on the ballot. The only real mentions of Manly 1st I could find was an article before the previous election about their lead candidate but nothing much since.

Narrabean Ward:
Independent [Vincent De Luca] Group finalised. 3 Liberals and 3 YNB have nominated.

Pittwater Ward:
Liberal and Independent [Alex McTaggart] Group finalised along with 2 YNB Candidates.

So it looks like the 3 major players [Grn, Lib, YNB] here are battling it out with 3 strong independent councillors [De Luca, McTaggart, Bingham] adding to the flavour and that Manly Ward is quite competitive, with 6 groups [G4M, Grn, Lab, Lib, YNB & Ind {M1st}] !

Nominations Day 9:

Curl Curl Ward:
Grn, Lab, Lib, YNB. 4 Groups

Frenches Forest Ward:
Grn, Ind [Sharpe], Lib, YNB. 4 Groups [No Labor but Sharpe is Labor affiliated but not his running mates officially.]

Manly Ward (aka group of death):
G4M, Grn, Ind {Manly 1st}, Lab, Lib, YNB. 6 Groups [Surprised Labor run here when Manly has such a low vote compared to Frenches Forest.]

Narrabean Ward:
Grn, Ind [De Luca], Lab, Lib, YNB. 5 Groups

Pittwater Ward:
Grn, Ind [McTaggart], Lib, YNB. 4 Groups

So Greens, Liberals and Your Northern Beaches contest all Wards. Labor pulls out of Pittwater and Frenches Forest (but surprisingly not Manly). No un-grouped candidates and with nominations closing tomorrow, I don’t expect any of that to change unless @Hawkeye_au wants to have a run :P. And Manly… such a wildcard! Looking forward to your predictions everyone and @Hawkeye_au once Ballot order is finalised on Thursday.

@politics_obsessed funnily enough I had been approached by both Liberal and YNB to run and I can confirm that, on both counts, the response was Shermanesque.

So it looks like the rumour around less independents was bang on and labor pulling out could well be 50% correct. Makes a mockery of some of the people who tried to have a crack earlier.

This means that it comes a much-more straightforward shootout for the election.

Based on this, I get the feeling that it will be the following:
Pittwater – Lib, McTaggart, 1 marginal (likely between Greens and YNB)
Narrabeen – YNB, Lib, de Luca
Frenches Forest – YNB x2, Lib
Curl Curl – YNB, Lib, 1 marginal
Manly – G4M, Lib, 1 marginal.

Really, there are 3 seats up for grabs.

BTW – fun and interesting news – Georgia Ryburn, the Lib Lead Candidate for Manly, is expected to give birth any day now.

@hawkeye_Au haha fair enough! thanks for the predictions to which I pretty much agree.

Post Nomination & Ballot Draw Summary:

There were no un-grouped candidates in 2017 but I see Narrabean Ward has 2 and Pittwater has 1 (must have snuck in their nominations at the last minute!)

Ballot Draw: Seems Group A is shared around with the tops groups following:
Labor in Curl Curl, Liberal in Frenches Forest and Manly, YNB in Narrabean and Greens in Pittwater.

Comparing number of groups from 2017 to 2021.
Curl Curl Ward 5 > 4 (-1)
Frenches Forest Ward 3 > 4 (+1)
Manly Ward 5 > 6 (+1)
Narrabean Ward 5 – 5 (0)
Pittwater Ward 8 > 4 (-4)

A decrease in candidates overall across the council but that’s mainly to the Pittwater Ward halving those running.

Pittwater will be really fascinating now because the number of independent tickets has dropped, leaving the 4 main groups + the solo ticket. How this plays out now will be the key, especially with preferences.

This could end up being the big battle seat. With both LIB and McTaggart winning a quota outright, the questions would be whether YNB would be able to hang on for the final seat.

That 3rd Manly Seat now drops in importance to the Pittwater 3rd Seat

I am eligible to vote for the 1st time in this next council election and live in Pittwater. I don’t understand what Alex McTaggart stands for (except that he likes surfing and stopped Baywatch being filmed in Avalon 15 years ago) and I also don’t know what YNB stand for.

I am open-minded, and just want to know what these people believe in.

How do we find out what they stand for?

Hi Tecwyn, congratulations on your opportunity to vote on NB Council for the first time.

YNB and McTaggart have their own websites:
YNB – https://www.yournorthernbeaches.com.au/

Alex McTaggart – Don’t believe he has a website but might be best to see if he is on Social Media

I volunteer with refugees, mostly in Dee Why. Several I mentor will be voting for the first time in these forthcoming local elections. I’d love to find a list of the candidates in Curl Curl Ward – with their bio’s and what they standing for – to assist in the how to vote process. I’ve searched online – and there seems to be no central listing like this of all the candidates across the parties. Can you advise of a web link.? Thanks?

Jeni, the full list of Curl Curl candidates is posted above. I’ve got links for three of the candidates but not for the Labor or Liberal candidates but you can probably find information somewhere. It’s not really worth looking at the candidates other than the top 2 for Liberal/YNB or the top 1 for Labor/Greens.

Things have gotten really disgusting in the area.

It has come out that someone had been delivering pamphlets in the Manly Ward stating that the only reason Georgia Ryburn was pre-selected was because she slept with James Griffin. A disgusting smear and one that has been condemned by both the major groupings in the Council.

The rumour making the rounds at the Mona Vale Pre-Poll was that it was a rogue Labor-Left Operative spreading the pamphlet around. Not sure if true but, regardless of which, this is about as disgusting as it gets.

I was actually out and about in the NBC yesterday and was surprised to barely see any corflutes. The only one I saw was for Rory Amos at Kitchener Park on the intersection of Mona Vale and Pittwater Roads. Less than 2 weeks to go before we get results!

@Hawkeye_au – the running theory at one of the prepolls on the southern side of the Beaches was that it was some Young Liberals who made the pamphlet, as revenge against Georgia Ryburn because she beat their pet pick to win preselection. Muddying the reputation of James Griffin as well would only be a bonus for them, as YL tend to be conservative, whereas Griffin is a moderate.

I doubt it was anyone in Labor. While Labor elsewhere does sometimes engage in gutter tactics, I’ve only seen them do it in races where the margin is competitive. Local Labor on the Beaches tends to behave themselves.

If people believed the pamphlet and were put off the Libs and/or GfM, I guess YNB or perhaps the other indie ticket would be the likely beneficiaries. But, I dont see it as being YNB’s style. I don’t know anything about the other indie ticket.

Hi @Anonycat – that wouldn’t make sense at all. The only serious candidate that could have won pre-selection was Lee Furlong and both the Furlong and Ryburn families are actually good friends (through football). Manly YL’s is also where Georgia came from so it wouldn’t make sense at all, unless someone really did go rogue.

PS – agreed that YNB wouldn’t be the ones doing it. Doubt Candy Bingham would be involved as well.

Election Day Material by Ward:
Curl Curl Ward
*Labor have a Preference Exchange with the Greens. Interestingly, Labor Exhausts after the Greens while the Greens have run a full preference ticket, with YNB 3 and Lib last
*YNB and Lib running “Just Vote 1”

Frenches Forest Ward
*Ok, this is weird. Both Lib and Greens are giving 2nd preference to Chris Sharp (running as Ind but ran previously as Lab) but Sharpe is not returning the preference swap for either party, opting for a “Just Vote 1”
*YNB running “Just Vote 1”

Manly Ward
*YNB and Sarah Grattan (Good for Manly) are exchanging 2nd preferences
*LIB and John Kelly running “Just Vote 1”
*LAB running full preferences, with the order being Greens, GFM, YNB, John Kelly and LIB
*Greens running full preferences, with the order being GFM, LAB, YNB, John Kelly and Lib

Narrabeen Ward
*YNB, LIB and Vince De Luca running “Just Vote 1”
*Lab and Greens are exchanging 2nd preferences
*Two ungrouped candidates have not had election material approved, being Richard Harris and Gregory Marr

Pittwater Ward
*Greens and YNB Running “Just Vote 1”
*McTaggart and Libs are exchanging Preferences

So Accounting for changes in Tickets, this is the likely base, along with assumptions of how these came to be (based off preferences allocated last time, excluding vote exhaustion as we are only dealing with Primaries):

Curl Curl Ward:
Assumption – With Bob Giltanan not running, 50% to YNB, 30% to Lib, 10% each to Lab and Grn
Result – YNB and LIB comfortably retain their quotas, race is on between Greens and Lab for the 3rd seat. Predicting Greens to hang on off the back of YNB Preferences

Frenches Forest Ward:
Assumption – With no endorsed Labor Candidate (Chris Sharpe running as an independent), I’m tipping the Labor Vote to split 50:50 between himsel and the Greens
Result – No Change. YNB retain their 2 seats and Lib retain their 1 seat. Will take something massive to chage this

Manly Ward:
Assumption – With the Extra Independent Ticket Running, I’m assuming each existing ticket will lose 1% each to the independent.
Outcome – No change. LIB and GFM retain comfortable Quotas. YNB still on a quota but only just. Will be under major threat from Grn

Narrabeen Ward:
Assumption – Nothing. The Independent Ticket was Conny Harris, who is Greens through and Through. Assuming that the Independent vote carries through to the Greens
Outcome – No change. YNB and LIB comfortable Quotas. De Luca to hang on, off the back of Lib Preferences

Pittwater Ward:
Assumptions – No Labor means 40% Breaks to Greens, 20% to everyone else. The other Independents not running means 40% to McTaggart and 20% to everyone else
Outcome – Lib and McTaggart comfortably holds a quota. Race between YNB and Greens for the last seat, down to preferences.

So from this, YNB will be under pressure to retain their seat in both Manly and Pittwater, both under threat from the Greens. This is unlikely to change the overall dynamic of the council though, with the Greens expected to side with Regan in council anyway.

@Hawkeye_au
The “weird” preferencing of Chris Sharpe in FF reflects, as I understand it, Chris agreed preference swaps with both Liberal and Greens, and has seemingly played both sides. Interesting strategy if he hopes to run again in the future – imagine both Lib and Grn will have ‘trust issues’…

My observation on prepoll and from others on prepoll, is that voters are not really looking at anyone’s ‘how to vote’ posters. While perhaps the voters are looking in advance, I suspect there will be a lot more people than usual who either just vote 1, or make up their own preference order. How any tickets are preferencing one another will, I suspect, have little bearing on the outcome of the election.

@anonycat – good points on both counts. Re: Chris Sharpe, I agree. These antics will make people think twice about doing any preference deal with him going forward.

As for the suspect voting that could well be the case, it being a just vote 1 election

Despicable behavior today at Polls around Narabeen.
YNB had hired volunteers for $8.00 an hour to place signs at every polling booth stating “don’t waste your vote on De Luca. Vote for the community “ The volunteers gave us a name of the coordinator which I won’t repeat here but the police were called and the details logged including the license plate of one of them. Many were confiscated as they were unauthorized and the cops chased up most booths, but there is no excuse for this type of bad mouthing.

@Heidi – I could give you my own personal opinion about Vince de Luca, including about his dummy-spit at losing his pre-selection tilt against Brad Hazzard and then deciding to run against him as an independent, along with his use as an attack dog by Marie Ficarra within factional battles in the Liberal Party, after being banned from the party for 10 years for the aforementioned dummy spit but I’ll leave that for another day.

For the Northern Beaches, breakdown as follows:
Curl Curl – Status Quo. 1 Lib, 1 YNB, 1 Grn
Frenches Forest – Could get a bit interesting but I still expect 2 YNB, 1 Lib. The YNB Vote did drop significantly below 2 quotas but I think they will hold up off the back of voter exhaustion
Manly – Status Quo. 1 Lib, 1 YNB, 1 GFM. The interesting part with this is that LIB and YNB both moved into 1st and 2nd place, at the expence of GFM but LIB is now the only ticket with a full quota. Should still be enough for both YNB and GFM but a worrying trend for GFM.
Narrabeen – 1 Lib and 1 YNB confirmed but De Luca is hanging on, with only 0.7 Quota. He is in range from the Greens, if there is a strong flow of preferences
Pittwater – This is the big shock! 1 Lib and 1 YNB (into 2nd place on a full quota). But Alex McTaggart is gone! The Greens are currently odds on to take the 3rd seat from McTaggart. Only a strong preference flow to the Liberal from McTaggart would prevent this.

At this stage, Council would then look like this:
YNB – 6
Lib – 5
Grn – 2
GFM – 1
Ind – 1

The only way this varies is if the Libs manage to win the 2nd seat in Pittwater, instead of McTaggart, which would make it 6-6-1-1-1. Given the current splits in council, GFM becomes the balance of power.

@Hawkeye – re Pittwater, not actually that surprising. My feeling is that McTaggart too closely aligned himself with the Libs and the Pittwater Unleashed campaign, and shot himself in the foot as there was no point of differentiation with the Libs. I thought his ground game was weak in terms of volunteers, perhaps he assumed the PU people would do the sales for him, but their key people are more strongly aligned with the Liberals. With COVID, his lack of social media presence also hurt him – heard more than once that people had no idea what he stood for. As such, it appears his voters have shifted to either Liberal or Green, both of whom ran stronger campaigns, had a social media presence, and had clearer messaging (and can rely on brand recognition if nothing else).

I actually thought the greater surprise was Manly, as I expected GfM to get 1.5 quotas and potentially be competitive for a second councillor at the expense of YNB if they got lucky on preferences.

In Narrabeen and Manly, I am not quite ready to call who will win the 3rd spot just yet. The combined Lab+Grn vote in both wards exceeds what GfM and VdL got as primary. As such, there is a degree to which preferences may determine who gets the 3rd spot.

I agree with your analysis in Curl Curl and FF, unless the rest of the count and preferences do something weird (never say never I guess).

The suprise in Manly was that the status quo was maintained. The huge rate rises caused by the amalgamation could easily be blamed on YNB or GFM, the Libs tried to but obviously it didn’t land.