Willoughby – NSW 2023

I can confirm that Tim James has been out essentially campaigning – pushing his profile up – since July. (I am reliably informed he managed to choose the townhouse of the local ALP branch president to door knock on around that time) I suppose when you’ve only been elected in February, and there in another election in March of year later, you have a very short period of time to get the benefit of incumbency.

However there is not always a direct positive correlation between profile and support. It seems quite obvious given the explanations above, and it is obvious even to many on the street, that Tim James always saw himself as the MP for North Shore. Having a shot at Willoughby seems to have been a direct result of the shenanigans to keep him our of North Shore – which as GregC says, may be a case of shooting oneself in your foot (on behalf of the party). Upon meeting Tim for the first time, within 10 seconds he was telling us how much of a local he was – played footy as a kid on the oval we were at, etc.

He has got just under 3 months to convince Willoughby voter he is a local and their MP, rather than just a career politician he took his best opportunity to force his way into pre-selection for a major party.

As to Larissa Penn, she is definitely not a Teal IND. North Sydney’s Independent, the self appointed Independent selection group around these parts, apparently did their due diligence on Penn but could not reach a position that they could formally support her. They have recently written to their supporters, advising that as they still anticipate Penn running in Willoughby, they are focusing on Lane Cove and Willoughby, which has come to pass in the last two weeks with announcement of Independent candidates that they will be supporting.

@Insider – I don’t think the issue is about whether Tim is a local. Given how much Willoughby now wraps around the bottom of Middle Harbour towards Mosman, you would treat Willoughby now as representative of Northern Sydney as the North Shore. Indeed, I think the re-distribution means that Tim, while living outside the electorate, is just a block or two away. He also grew up in the seat as well, once again, towards the southern end of the seat, closer to what would be the boundary with North Shore.

I think we have to remember that, given the size of state seats, if anyone lives outside the seat but in the general community (at least, within that LGA or close by, if it is a small LGA), then the challenge about them being “Local” is largely irrelevant. The litmus test for this should always be what I call the “Paul Nicolau Test”, where the Liberal Party ran a now dis-credited fundraiser for Pittwater following the resignation of John Brogden, despite that person living in Lane Cove.

Maybe we should rename it the KK test, after her shenanigans with Fowler

Hi @Hawkeye,

In my above comment, I am not really running the “he’s not a local/he lives outside the electorate” argument. I was attempting to warp up the conversation that had been going on amongst several posters wrt how James had ended up MP for Willoughby and not North Shore. Even though that part of the Willoughby electorate that you mention is really the odd part of the electorate (it’s clearly a bit that couldn’t fit into North Shore but it hasn’t been affected by the past redistribution and has been in Willouhby for several years) no one is running the he lives outside the electorate line. I was told last weekend that James has indeed moves a little distance and is now living inside the electorate.

I think Tim James bigger challenge is to convince people he wanted/wants to be their MP – he has succeeded St. Gladys – who was very much recognised a local and he defeated the popular female Mayor for pre-selection – and that was a shock result. His long standing attempts to get into Parliament for North Shore are well publicised.

The bar he has to meet is very high on several levels. We don’t know exactly what Gladys’ personal vote was but it reasonably could be judged to have been very high looking at the three election results since she was last elected in 2019.

Completely agree with the personal vote and impact of Gladys not running this time around. This vote will really set the base for what the Liberal Party can expect from Willoughby these days. Gladys worked her butt off early on in that seat to make it secure and she was incredibly popular in the area. It is a very high bar to clear.

I have picked up some grumblings from locals in Willoughby but it has tended to be towards the northern end of the seat, around Chatswood and beyond. I feel as if this is where Tim will need to focus the most to ensure that his vote stays up.

Takes us back round to GregC comment about the tendency of Chatswood booths to vote solidly Liberal. All election day and pre poll booths in the federal election in Chatswood saw near 20% drop in Liberal PV and although a small on the day booth, Labor actually topped the PV count in one. Is that all anti Federal Liberal party backlash that will revert to normal in a state election? We will have to wait and see.

I think the best evidence of this is the by-election, Chatswood there got Tim James home and turned around just 2 months later to smash the Feds. Scomo was simply really unpopular in the whole electorate and the anti chine rhetoric, and I think the handling of the vaccines, played very poorly in that particular part of the seat. Without a local Allegra Spender style Teal I cannot see Chatswood leaving the Libs.

I think this is where Perrottet can still have a chance at the State Election. He needs to distance himself hard from Morrison et al. At this point, I think the best the Coalition can hope for is a minority government, especially given how big the Cross-Bench currently is.

This electorate has attracted a lot of commentary and rightly so, with this seat currently having the most candidates that I can do a quick scan on.

I currently have the following candidates running in Willoughby:
LIB – Tim James (Source: NSW Liberals Website)
ALP – Sarah Griffin (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)
GRN – Edmund McGrath (Source: NSW Greens Website)
IND – Andrew Assaee (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)
IND – Larissa Penn (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)
IND – Van Huynh (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)

Parties I’d expect to field a candidate: AJP, SAP (SAP ran in the By-election, but their candidate then/founder is running for LegCo)
Possible parties to field a candidate: PHON, EFI (PHON and EFI just for LegCo Vote)

With ALP running that might hurt Penn’s (IND) vote and under OPV, could make it harder to repeat the feat of her getting as close as she did in the 2022 By-Election. Also, having two other independents will hurt and can split that vote even further. Tim James has been working this electorate hard and is a regular contributor to the local rag, The Post. I’d expect a small swing against him (say 3% on primary) but don’t seem him loosing this. Surprised that this electorate had 6 candidates as the most campaigning so far. Maybe one of the other two independents might not nominate and give Penn a clearer run; shall see when it comes to nomination time in March.

2023 Jan Prediction: LIB Retain

3% swing from what baseline, Politics_Obsessed?

James will hold the seat but the same faultlines will appear in the vote – Chatswood, Artarmon, Roseville Chase and Castle Cove will be the better areas for him, but he will continue to underperform in Northbridge, Naremburn (Penn Central), Cammeray and Cremorne. The reason is the disruption arising from the Beaches Link Tunnel. He opposes it in its current form, but Natalie Ward, the metro roads minister (and a bunch of northern beaches Lib candidates) want it to be built. The southern half of the electorate is tired of being thought of as a bunch of row cottages stuck next to a major traffic corridor for everywhere else, and are finding their voice on this issue, via Penn.

That said, he will win because this seat will follow the pattern every other usually-safe Liberal seat on the north shore does when an incumbent leaves mid-term. By-election records massive fall in primary Lib vote, which recovers over successive terms. The question is: has he done enough to get this dynamic working for him after only 12 months? His work rate makes me think the answer is yes (but slightly diluted as it will be a change-of-government election).

If James is to hold then they aren’t showing a lot of confidence about it. Word our of Government departments is that both James and Wilson in North Shore are in a daily panic about the expressway works.

The electorate was also live called opinion polled on the weekend, so expect some leaked internal Liberal polling results in the next week or so.

BTW – at the federal election the Liberals lost the Artarmon PS booth 41.6 to 58.3% to the ALP who almost topped the Primary vote. So Hughie, I assume you mean the eastern side of Artarmon, where the expensive detached houses are, not the shops side where the renters, young professionals and people with insecure work live.

Insider, I quite agree James is in a panic – and he should be too. His electorate is carrying the pain for the beaches link tunnel and that central band of suburbs I mentioned above are tired of being northern Sydney’s transit corridor. They said it too in the byelection. He is also worried about the bus driver shortages. Willoughby Road is a disaster area for commuters at the moment because they just can’t source enough drivers.

My recollection of the byelection is that Artarmon did not swing so wildly as the suburbs more directly affected by the beaches tunnel. Your point about Artarmon being a suburb of two halves (as shown by the state school’s vote above) is well made though. Remember though that this is a state byelection with optional preferential voting. If Labor is in the 2pp count with James then teal votes elsewhere will exhaust, and vice versa.

Still think James will squeak a win though.

No Teal Candidate in Willoughby – just saying (once more time). They are had a singalong at the Oaks Hotel on the weekend and Larissa Penn wasn’t invited.

Also, to all those here and at the PollBludger that say it is already clear that Larissa Penn is running, I would just point out that there is a Jewish Board of Deputies arranged Election Forum next week for both North Shore and Willoughby (jointly it seems) and she is not shown on the flyer. Helen Conway for North Shore is. That’s because she has announced or declared, that she is running.

Penn has now confirmed she is running on her FB page. I’m guessing she is not considered a teal by the “real” teals because she is presumably too socially conservative for them (I think she is married to a Baptist preacher but could be wrong).

After asking around, I now also know of two sets of private polling (neither by a party or similar group) that show James’ primary vote is low and he is under significant pressure. I’m tentatively moving Willoughby back to the “toss-up” column.

Hughie.. this is.my exactly point she not Labor or the greens is the alternative. There is a big danger to the liberals

Hughie – it’s because the core of her platform it anti development then from that you get a bit of pro green policy but it’s often expressed in very local terms. While climate is obviously core to teals beliefs the blue comes from the pro business, low tax etc side of things and that’s a side that Penn doesn’t have. This is particularly an issue for Penn because the single issue that she campaigns on, basically second tunnel and associated freeway upgrades, is a development that is very much wanted by large sections of the electorate, especially up around Chatswood.

I don’t think Tim is a particularly good candidate for the electorate and I don’t think the electorate particularly likes him. But Penn got a bit of a no labor candidate, by election bump, protest vote in the by election which she won’t get to the same extent this time.

That said, the only reason the seat is being discussed is because of the preselection, the Liberal party really shot themselves in the foot there.

I would say the reason the seat is being discussed is the close by election vote and the federal North Sydney vote

The reason Mick Q is the North Sydney result and also that there are constant whispers that Tim James primary vote is very low. No-one believed Zimmerman’s primary was 36% when a poll come out last January, but it ended being only 38%. Would love to see a leaked internal poll of what James primary is.

Trent Z was a lazy, lousy MP that had no energy or spark left after the marriage equality vote, which, while significant, was just one issue. People noticed. Say what you like about James but he doesn’t strike me as lazy (if a bit reactive).

GregC: thanks for the insights on the distinctions between various Indy candidates. I suppose I used “teal” here as shorthand for anti-Liberal progressive independents in affluent seats seeking to reach the 2pp. I’ve picked up some talk locally about why Penn isn’t considered a full-fat teal.

i think the by election was a protest vote against what happened to gladys

@Ben what happened ‘to’ Gladys, or what she got involved in and tried to justify as appropriate conduct from a Premier?

@Hughie – fair enough. I don’t recall many reports of Trent Z door knocking, I’ll give you that. But it’s why he’s poll results said 36% and actual election result was 38% – pretty close. If James poll results are, I’m guessing here, 34%, (the Manly dude was polled to be on 33%, I recall) then because he’s hard working is not a reason to discredit the poll and assume he’s much higher.

@insider im sorry was she convicted of a crime?

I feel like the teal wave has subsided in the teal seats since the federal election after Morrison’s now gone although the non-teal independents in Willoughby and Wakehurst are ones I would watch. I feel like the Liberal primary vote won’t be exceptionally high but won’t drop that much from the by-election. Remember that with the Morrison government his popularity in the teal seats never really improved especially with the Discrimination Bill and Katherine Deves. Perrottet is likely more popular and that can be seen with Dominic Perrottet Premier of NSW posters often accompanying the candidate posters in Lower North Shore seats. You wouldn’t see ScoMo posters at the federal election in the same area! I’d suspect Tim James’ primary vote will be around 38% to 45% which with OPV should be enough to win, even if just barely

@Ben (the first one above).

Not sure where in my comment I stated or even implied that she was convicted of a crime, so not sure where the justification for your comment comes from. It was a genuine question and I tried to describe the situation in the most not partisan way possible, to exactly avoid hot headed replies like yours.

If the electorate felt that she was hard done by, it’s a very odd way to show it by reducing support for the her replacement candidate – that she endorsed in a video – from 57% to 43%. Or perhaps you mean she was a female treated harshly, so lets vote for another female candidate instead of a man – is that what you mean? I am confused as to what you mean.

There were some events that happened to and around her – they are factually acknowledged by her – and she said certain things in the media about them, even on a commercial radio station. Given there was a large swing against the party she represented, the most logical way to interpret your comment was that the reaction in the by-election was a negative one, and this is not normally described as being because something happened ‘to’ someone, from outside forces. Such outside treatment is normally seen as unfair to the respective person and engenders a positive response, which in electoral terms is normally seen as a RISE in the vote for a political party, not a fall.

It’s good to see another strong Labor candidate in the area. My moneys on Labor’s Sarah Griffin, because Larissa is anit abortion and very socially conservative.

Which doesn’t match this electorate because it isn’t as elitists or religious as areas like Mossman and Manly ect, and has a lot of young people and LGBTQAI+ people.

Larissa is not a teal at all, and Tim James is well on the nose with the Beaches Link, living in Mosman recently, trying to sue someone for preselection, and preselecting over 2 women who the community did like.

Sarah is a candidate this electorate could very well elect as she is very progressive, but is also a small business owner, worked in a public hospital, and works in finance, economics and health. Good luck to her.

Hi Tally Room, can you please amend the description to include ‘parts of Lane Cove North’? Thanks!

Good tip thanks.

What are people seeing as the high water mark for the IND candidate in this electorate? Under what primary vote mark would you consider she has flopped?

Insider, given that Larissa Penn polled about 10% last time she ran, if she manages to reach 15-20% (near doubling of her initial vote) that would be a good result.

If her vote falls below 5%, I will say that would indicate she has ‘flopped’.

it only matters who wins the seat she could lose by a vote. shes still a three time loser. i doubt she’ll gain much more then she did at the by election.

So I’ve got one “15-20% would be a good result” and one “not much more than 29.7%”.

I’m not much better off for asking that question…

People don’t know. How well the alternate non liberal candidate will do..Here Labor cannot win neither can the greens The alternate candidate will get some extra votes from alp and green candidates shifting.their votes there already more will come when their preferences are distributed. The credible alternate candidate in such electorates did not exist prior 2022 on any scale. Two issues come in firstly how will opv . help the liberals if at all.and secondly is there a capacity for Labor and the Greens. Preferences to be directed more strongly. Logically there is a pro Labor swing in this election which must go.somewhere. The liberals would of course be worried…also.the odds are the same process will occur in.other North shore electorates I cannot guess the results but I think the liberals would be lucky to hold the 5 to 6 electorates concerned

This is about the only seat a teal has a chance of unseating a liberal mick. If Carbone ran in carbamatta or Fairfield you would lose to with help

There’s no Teal candidate in Willoughby, Ben.

Also Mick Q, the credible alternate candidate people speak of for Willoughby did exist prior to 2022 – she ran in 2019 and got 9.9% primary.

Was interested to see on TAB.com last night that Willoughby is the only seat without one of the candidates below $2 (unless I have missed any others).

Liberals drawn last on the Ballot here – FYI

Ballot Order:
Labor (Griffin)
Greens (McGrath)
IND (Penn)
SAP (Want)
Liberal (James)

The ballot draw is a perfect Labor how to vote card!

I had previously said in this thread that I thought James could be at risk. A fortnight out, I no longer think that. Penn’s share of voice is being diluted in a normal election, as it was in 2019, and Willoughby’s class base is just too strong for a Griffin breakthrough. I don’t think the state swing to Labor will be enough to win a seat as affluent as this. Moreover, neither Griffin nor Penn have sent out postal vote application forms. A serious campaign in the hunt would have done that by now.

Show me a Labor campaign that has ever sent out postal vote forms, Hughie? Doing so just makes it easier for Conservatives to vote.

The last time Labor was genuinely competitive on the lower north shore at an election was Mike Bailey in 2007 – and I’m pretty sure he did!

this might not be as competetive as in 2022 remember labor didnt run a candidate and therefore the ind will suffer vote exhaustion from labor

@Hughie – Labor were much closer to winning North Sydney last year than Mike Bailey got in 2007, and they didn’t then.

They were beaten into 2nd by 3.5% and lost the 2PP by approx 1% – you don’t call that “genuinely competitive”.

@Ben – the IND is no certainty to even come 2nd. The IND on the lower north shore most likely to come 2nd is Helen Conway in North Shore.

You seem very confident Insider – and tbh I could care less about the result as I will spend pretty much all of polling day on the kids’ sport like every other Saturday – so why not take a punt? Sportsbet has Tim James on1.65, Larissa Penn on 2.20 and Sarah Griffin on 13.00. Sounds like you think Griffin is a value bet!

And just pointing out the facts Hughie – you uncomfortable with facts??

Tim James was $2 on TAB.com earlier in the week – only favourite I could see not under $2. I thought that was very good value as, given the past 2PP result, the only candidate that can beat him is Penn and she has a lot of doubt about her level of support, reinforced by this from an actual expert.

https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1634129738183905280

i put $10000 on the greens forming majority governement. i just dont like money

Love me a good fact, Insider, and thanks for the steer to that guy’s Twitter account, I’d not seen it before and I’m not big on Twitter generally, but I’ll follow him.

I’m relaxed about the outcome, any which way, but history suggests to me that the incumbent will be returned, more likely than not. I think it will be very tight here in Willoughby but I am fully expecting a majority Chris Minns-led Labor government.

@Hughie I’m going for labor minority I just don’t think the campaign is inspiring enough to get them enough seats for majority

@Hughie, as a Local, what do you think the Penn Primary vote could be? I agree that the General election will greatly dilute her result. Penn herself seems to think she will just stroll into the high 20’s because she got that in the by-election and Labors presence will get her home on preferences. The logic of both those things happening seems confused to me

Any predictions on Liberal’s primary vote?
Any predictions on who will come second in the 2CP count? I doubt it would be the SAP candidate.

Insider, you have misinterpreted what Kevin Bonham is saying. He was not expressing any opinion about teal chances, he was simply considering the argument for tactical voting.

Votante: 2nd I think is a toss up between Penn and Labor. Greens will come 4th, SAP last. Greens may preference Labor which will ensure ALP are second. The Greens may very well refrain from recommending any preference to Penn on their HTVs like in the by-election as Penn is quite socially conservative. Penn is running a fairly lacklustre campaign this time, only been out in the last fortnight. I hear the teals are regretting staying out of Willoughby. Labor to me seems to have more of a presence and sharper message than Penn re issues like Beaches Link. My money is on Labor 2nd but just can’t see that boiling over into Sarah Griffin overtaking Tim James in the final count. My sense is the Liberal primary is similar to the by-election. Tim James has been out everywhere the past year, if an envelope is being opened he is there. He’s engaged the multicultural and community groups exceptionally well, something Larrisa has not done. He will have built a personal vote. At the same time the government has gone backwards since the by-election both statewide and with local issues such as start of tunnel construction at Cammeray Park and the bus driver shortage biting commuters.