ALP 25.9%
Incumbent MP
Sonia Hornery, since 2007.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Hunter. Wallsend covers western suburbs of the City of Newcastle and a small part of the City of Lake Macquarie. Suburbs include Cardiff Heights, Rankin Park, Callaghan, Jesmond, Shortland, Wallsend, Maryland and Elermore Vale.
Redistribution
Wallsend’s boundaries were changed on the south-eastern corner, losing New Lambton to Charlestown, while gaining part of Broadmeadow from Newcastle and the remainder of Cardiff Heights from Charlestown.
History
The current incarnation of Wallsend has existed since 1968. Wallsend existed at three other periods dating back to 1894. It has always been held by Labor MPs.
Wallsend was first won in 1968 by Ken Booth. He had held the seat of Kurri Kurri since a 1960 by-election. He had succeeded his father George, who had sat in Parliament from 1925 until his death in 1960. Kurri Kurri was abolished in 1968.
The younger Booth served as Treasurer from 1981 to 1988, when the ALP lost power. Booth died later that year.
The 1988 by-election was won by John Mills. He held the seat for the ALP until his retirement in 2007.
Wallsend was won in 2007 by Newcastle councillor Sonia Hornery. Hornery has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Wallsend is the safest Labor seat in the state.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sonia Hornery | Labor | 31,998 | 62.3 | +3.9 | 62.7 |
| Nicholas Trappett | Liberal | 10,458 | 20.4 | -4.4 | 19.9 |
| Sinead Francis-Coan | Greens | 4,756 | 9.3 | -1.5 | 9.2 |
| Toni Gundry | Animal Justice | 2,170 | 4.2 | +4.2 | 4.3 |
| Fiona De Vries | Conservatives | 1,969 | 3.8 | +3.8 | 3.8 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 1,851 | 3.5 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sonia Hornery | Labor | 35,605 | 75.4 | +4.6 | 75.9 |
| Nicholas Trappett | Liberal | 11,591 | 24.6 | -4.6 | 24.1 |
Booths in Wallsend have been split into four parts: central, east, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 71.7% in the south to 79.1% in the centre.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 6.1% in the north to 12.8% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 8.7 | 79.1 | 9,414 | 18.8 |
| South | 9.1 | 71.7 | 8,347 | 16.7 |
| North | 6.1 | 77.7 | 7,447 | 14.9 |
| East | 12.8 | 74.2 | 6,560 | 13.1 |
| Other votes | 12.1 | 74.7 | 9,263 | 18.5 |
| Pre-poll | 6.6 | 77.3 | 8,952 | 17.9 |
Election results in Wallsend at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Two overlapping pieces of trivia:
• In the last two state elections, the safest Labor seat has been in the Hunter.
• Currently, the safest Labor seat in the country at a federal level and the safest Labor seat in NSW at a state level are in the Hunter.
It does seem a little at odds with commentary on how the political landscape is changing. I suppose the explanation is Labor has gone backwards in their traditional metropolitan strongholds but has managed better at holding ground in and around Newcastle.
I guess Newcastle is slightly different from the rest of the Hunter region in that it is highly urbanised now and still has remnants from its industrial past.
Nicholas, has raised an excellent point about the fallacy of the Hunter Region being compared to Rust belt of the US. Vote Compass found Newcastle (Cth) to be one of the most left-wing seats in the country. Parts of the region such as the Upper Hunter (state) have always been Conservative. It will be interesting if the planned Sydney-Newcastle fast rail will lead to more of a commuter white collar demographic longer term especially around Lake Macquarie and the Coast.
Agree Nimalan, the coastal parts of the Hunter Valley including Newcastle are very different compared to the more inland parts as they are centred more on white collar, service based industries instead of mining/agriculture which is more dominant in the outer parts of the Hunter such as Cessnock, Singleton and Muswellbrook.
I wonder if Gladstone (another port city in Queensland) can be compared similarly to Newcastle as it is also quite strong for Labor being one of their last industrial heartland areas.
Yoh An, I am interested to see what happens in Shortland/Paterson longer term. If there are more of a sea change demographic then Labor could hold on even with the decline of Coal power.
Regarding Queensland, i think at a state level Labor is still strong in Bundaberg, Gladstone, Mackay, Rockhampton etc as these are smaller electorates and do not contain surrounding agricultural areas unlike at a federal level.
Hello – Newcastle is built around 3 things – the health care, the university (I think these are the 2 largest employees in the city) and the port. 3 industries that are traditionally left leaning. It is no different to Canberra which is built around 5 things: the Government, the Local Government, the universities (at least 5 unis have a home in Canberra), health and Defence. People need to look past the one thing of these cities
@Nimalan State Labor also does a lot better than federal Labor in Qld.
@ Dan M, 100% Agreed Labor does better a a state level in QLD than federal. One of the reasons i believe is that the smaller more bite sized electorates make it easier for Labor to win. For example, it is possible for Labor to win a couple of seats on the Gold Coast at a state level by concentrating on pockets of strength
Looking at the pendulum it’s very interesting to see that 6/10 of Labor’s safest seats are in either Newcastle/Hunter or Wollongong/Illawara and only 4/10 in Sydney.
That will likely change after this election. Sydney is trending to the left. And the Hunter and other regional areas in NSW are trending more conservative. The federal seat of Hunter is not safe Labor. And even Shortland is a shaky seat for Labor.
Regional NSW used to be competitive like the mid-north coast and areas such as Bathurst used to be Labor leaning. No longer the case.
I could see many rural seats and seats on the central coast swing to the coalition but all their nasty swings will be in Sydney.
Daniel – wallsend is considered more of an urban seat rather than regional, and it is extremely unlikely that the Liberals will be competitive here.
I believe this seat overlaps with Newcastle federal district which is safe Labor, and the Alp even retained wallsend at the 2011 landslide election loss.
I was speaking more broadly in general. Newcastle is the only rock solid Labor area outside the major cities. It’s much compared to Gladstone here in Queensland. However if Labor don’t get their act in the regions they risk losing voters in these seats in future.
@ Adam, you are 100% correct Labor remains very strong in these regions especially at a state level. As Nicholas pointed out even at a Federal level Newcastle is the strongest Labor seat in the country.
@ Daniel T, i am keen to see what evidence you have to back up you theory. I agree at a federal level the Libs are using populism and this has got some votes in some of the Hunter seats but not Newcastle which is very progressive. It works at a federal level as QLD is a battleground state and QLD has a very decentralized population. The NSW Coalition Govermment is the closest thing to a traditional Liberal government and focuses on service delivery/infrastructure/economy in this manner it has built political capital in Western Sydney without losing its affluent base
1. Specifically, which seats in Sydney are trending left? The only seats that have trended leftwards over the past two elections are Ballina and Blue Mountains and they are outside the metro area. Labor even holds Bega for the first time ever and have improved dramatically in Eden-Monaro to the point where it is no longer a bellwether
2. I agree with you Bathurst has moved to the right so has the Federal Division of Calare. However, 3 other seats that are shifting rightwards are Oatley, East Hills and Drummoyone all of which are in Sydney. The Federal Division of Banks is more liberal in 2022 than it was in 2013.
3. When was Labor ever competitive in the mid-North coast when did Labor ever win seats such as Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Myall Lakes and Oxley
4. What makes you think that the Central Coast will swing to a 12 year old government when they did the opposite the last two elections. Labor did very well at the last Federal election in this region.
Happy to be challenged 🙂
Great observations Nimalan, you are particularly correct regarding point 2; It’s important to note that seats like Holsworthy, Camden and Federal Lindsay have trended more ‘rightwards’ over time.
It’s hard to suggest certain seats have shifted left or right when there has been an incumbent MP for that period who has worked to increase their margin.
Take Bathurst – it has certainly moved to the Nats since 2011, but that’s more to do with Paul Toole than any sort of ideological shift. He’s got a very strong personal following there. If he retired tomorrow and they put in another person you’d see a swing back to the ALP.
Especially at state level the voting patterns have as much to do with personality as ideology. Mark Coure in Oatley is another example. Hardworking local MP, would see a 5-10% swing back to Labor if he left.
It’s why Gareth Ward may well hold Kiama despite facing very serious criminal charges.
If Gareth Ward does get convicted, could he legally remain as MP?
No
@ Hugh,
I agree with you that an incumbent can build a personal vote and the results in Oatley/Bathurst. However, we have seen the same at a federal level in the corresponding seats. In these seats we have seen demographic reasons being part of the reason For example East Hills did not have an incumbent MP in 2019 but it had a small swing to the Libs against the state trend and is now more Liberal than it was in 2011. The Georges River is becoming more affluent while in Bathurst the declining of Coal mining around Lithgow explains in part the trend. Ballina/Blue Mountains the influx of sea/tree changers has led the progressive shift.
Ben did a good post at a federal level for how seats have shifted over 15 years.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47432
Banks / Barton .. basically they adjoin each other. The boundaries of Banks are quite pro liberal this along with the demographic changes of the”Revesby suburbs” make this able to be held by Mr Coleman since 2013. Barton on the other hand apart from strange boundaries with Cook. Is about as pro Labor as it can be. Punchbowl and Condell park are nearby. A boundary change could easily make the seat of Banks closer.. currently about 3%. There are also the impacts of personal votes..Milperra. Blaxland. COOK ..round San souci. The seat of Barton….outside the current Banks seat. A more sensible set of Boundaries could easily make Banks more marginal. If Mr Coleman decided not to contest The seat in 2025 then the seat would open more
@Nimalan, Happy to respond here, well several things here.
I am basing this off federal trends, and before you jump at me saying federal and state aren’t the same. trends cannot be ignored. Take Banks and East Hills for example. used to lean Labor. now both are battleground seats.
The North shore is trending to the left, as long as the liberals continue their drift to the right, they will keep facing problems with their vote going down even if it doesn’t translate to seats lost on the North shore. Metro/Eastern Sydney also isn’t as friendly to the liberals as it used to be.
On the point of the central coast, I meant the actual central coast, not the northern coast. But I can challenge you on this. Labor won Cowper in 1961, and I believe in between then, they have won state seats in landslide years. but outside of that they weren’t competitive. Labor rarely wins these seats, but there are a few occasions in the last 80 years.
As I said earlier, seats like Shortland and Hunter barely moved at the federal election and are clearly trending away from Labor, these working class voters regrettably seem to have liked Scott Morrison, and seem to be pro-mining. This is why you had figures like Joel Fitzgibbon pushing Labor to not abandon these area’s as he knows himself, the coalition could win these areas if Labor neglects the working class/blue collar workers, and unions.
I’ll also make the point Millennials even as they age, are NOT moving towards the coalition. This is also happening in the UK and elsewhere. If the coalition cannot improve on millennials even as they get older, as the older generations die out, the coalition will start losing elections in landslides, because my generation is quite center-left, look at the recent US midterms. Young voters are becoming increasingly involved and issues such as Climate change, equality, mental health services touch heart to us young voters. The coalition has repeatably failed to deliver on these issues and now they will pay the price and learn from their incoming defeat that they need to start appealing to younger voters, even if that means going to the left (even if it displeases Murdoch, sky news and friends)
”Service delivery” won’t save the coalition, and certainly doesn’t appeal to young voters such as myself (even though I don’t live in NSW), the coalition has to try much harder if it wants to win power more often.
Daniel, I will issue a rebuttal to your point about Liberals losing support on the North Shore area of Sydney. So far, there is only one data point (the 2022 federal election) that proves Liberals are losing support in affluent areas.
As I and other commentators have mentioned, many senior figures in the NSW Liberal Party are not like Morrison, Dutton et al. in the federal Coalition. They are considered moderates and not from the hard right, so they will naturally have better appeal to younger, affluent voters in these areas.
Even the Victorian election wasn’t as bad for the Liberals as they held onto some key marginals (Kew and Brighton) which overlapped with federal seats lost to the teal independents. They even managed to pick off Hawthorn, so applying that to the NSW election will also mean the Liberals should be able to retain most, if not all seats in North Shore and Northern Beaches.
Yoh, this was because of the anti-dan factor. Dan is personally disliked by young people because of the lockdowns. I don’t know a single young person in Victoria that didn’t complain about the lockdowns. Everyone I speak to from down there seems to not like Andrews.
Chris Minns is no Daniel Andrews. When Andrews goes midterm. Labor will stand a better chance in winning 2026.
People want to vote for a leader who is inspiring and has charisma. Not someone who seems boring and doesn’t have any inspiration or creates excitement. Tony Blair and Barrack Obama and Kevin Rudd all managed to do this.
Daniel, if you are saying popular labor leaders are usually inspiring, then I dont see Chris minns being one.
My parents in Sydney have never really heard of him, and he seems more like albanese maintaining a low profile campaign. Unlike perrottet and his cabinet ministers who are out spruiking latest offerings to public.
@ Daniel T, Thanks for your response. See my points
1. I didnt say Federal and State trends dont matter. To the contrary, i said it does which is why i used East Hills and Banks in my example and Bathurst and Calare.
2. My point was that you said Metro Sydney was moving to the Left and Regional NSW to the right. I used East Hills, Oatley and Drummuyne to rebut that and used Blue Mountains and Ballina to rebut the rightward shift in NSW.
3. Like Yoh An said you often need two data points to see if there is a clear trend.
4. I agree that at a Federal Level the Hunter, Paterson and Shortland. Labor underperformed in 2019, 2022 but what evidence is there at a state level that the Hunter is moving right? Upper Hunter has not been held by Labor for over 90 years so that is not a good example
5. What evidence is there at the North Shore is moving towards Labor at a state level. Even at a Federal level it was the Teals not Labor that did well here even though Labor did think they had a chance in North Sydney. OPV means it is hard for Teals to win at a NSW state level.
6. I did nt confuse the Central Coast with the Mid North Coast. In fact i had them on separate dot points to highlight the difference. I will do so again
7. With respect to the Central Coast what evidence is there that it is moving to the right? Labor holds both Dobell and Roberston and got above state average swings to them. At a state level Labor holds 3/4 seats exception being Terrigal which is always safe Liberal.
8. With respect to the Mid North Coast, thanks for pointing out that Cowper was won by Labor for a single term in 1961 since Federation. I did not know that. I just found out back then it included Grafton which is more Labor friendly and now that is in the seat of Page so automatically Cowper is less Labor friendly than it was in 1961. If you can add flesh to this argument and come up with state example as well that will be much appreciated.
9. I am not sure that the Anti-Dan factors explain why the Libs won the Elite seats such as Brighton/Sandringham/Hawthorn etc. If that was the case then why did Labor increase it is overall majority in parliament and get big swings in the Middle ring of Eastern suburbs, South Barwon etc. Dan is actually well liked by the majority of Victorians. I actually live in Victoria
I keenly look forward to your response.
@Daniel T I would have to agree with Nimalan and Yoh An here. Dan Andrews is indeed very popular among young voters, especially in the key eastern and southeastern suburb seats at the election to the point. In fact young and educated voters in the affluent areas is where Dan Andrews is the most popular. It’s only really among antivaxxers and the anti-lockdown crowd in the disadvantaged weatern and northern suburbs where he is detested which is why those areas saw double digit swings to the Libs.