Wakehurst – NSW 2023

Toby would lean more towards CR, being very closely aligned with Natasha MacLaren-Jone. I expect Kean to throw his weight behind Wendy but early indication are that Toby should hold, given that he has almost complete support of the local component.

Can confirm that Wakehurst Independents have declared that they will not run a Teal Candidate in Wakehurst.

The question now comes down to whether Michael Regan decides to run.

Wow @Hawkeye, that leaves a big chance at this seat staying in Liberal hands unless Regan jumps in…

If this remains a alp/ liberal contest then it is liberal retain.if a credible teal or independent ran then they could win

Latest development is that Brad Hazzard has openly endorsed Toby Williams and has agreed to campaign for Toby if successful for Pre-Selection.

Wendy’s support for Pre-Selection appears to be coming from Matt Kean and Jacqui Munro, which doesn’t surprise me in the least.

Preselection confirmed for next Saturday.

If a ind or teal does not stand then liberal retain. If they do result uncertain but situation favours libs

Have enjoyed the commentary here on this electorate, it seems the Northern Sydney seats will play a big factor in deciding the election, and not just Western Sydney (W-Syd could play a less an impact this time now I think of it). Interestingly, no candidate has registered to campaign here yet.

I currently have the following candidates running in Wakehurst:
ALP – Sue Wright (Source: Northern Beaches Advocate)
GRN – Ethan Hrnjak (Source: NSW Greens Website)
**with LIB candidate pending upcoming Saturday

Parties I’d expect to run: AJP, SAP
(KSO ran last time here, now branded EFI. Not sure if they will run a candidate to boost the LegCo vote.)

Agree with @Hawkeye that it basically comes down to if Regan decides to run, but wouldn’t want to leave it too much later (just over 9 weeks until election).

2023 Jan Prediction: LIB Retain

Can confirm that Toby Williams has won pre-selection

Hawkeye,
Thanks for the update.
Is he the Toby Williams discussed in this article?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/councillor-accused-of-double-standards-over-dee-why-pokies-stance-20180718-p4zs6a.html

Hi Watson Watch,

Same person. I can tell you that I do know Pat Daley as well and, towards the end of his time, he kept running hatchet jobs in an attempt to try and maintain his position on the Liberal Party Ticket for Council. This was one of them. He has also attempted, amongst other policy ideas, to run a “War On Drugs” style campaign on the Northern Beaches.

Fun piece of this. Michael Photios getting a mention because of course Michael Photios gets a mention!

Liberals will hold this. But are people ignoring the 56-44 poll to Labor statewide? Name one occasion a party has won an election while trailing by more than 55-45 2 months out from a state election.

Labor will win 50-55 seats on that poll

Labor no chance here. BUT. if a teal or independent run they could win. This seems to be a non messy preselection for the libs.

Mick Q – tell us your views on more interesting northern Sydney seats!

Daniel T – I think most people are ignoring you, especially given that the TPP method of estimating for NSW doesn’t necessarily run and this is a post about Wakehurst, not the overall result.

Mick Q – you seemed to have ignored my previous comment that the Teals have already announced they are not running a candidate in Wakehurst, in anticipation of Michael Regan running.

Agree with Hawkeye that the TPP measure in the poll should be taken with a grain of salt. The poll suggested Labor and Coalition were sitting on a record low 39% and 31% each with another 30% spread between the greens, independents and others. Very difficult to draw an accurate TPP with so many voters opting for neither Labor or Coalition. The geographic distribution of all these votes will also be important.

I think the best conclusion that can be drawn from this poll is that a minority government might be on the cards.

Re the North shore. Manly.Wakehurst Pittwater Willoughby north shore and .I think Davidson. I don’t know who will win.based on the Federal.figures teals or independents have a chance here. There will already be alp.and green voters who.have already voted tactically. But.i.suspect 20% odd will.still.do.greens and labor.
This leaves a pool of preferences that will.further.help.the teal.or.ind

I did some initial comparisons of the results from the Federal Election (just looking at Primary Votes and assuming that Michael Regan runs, in lieu of a Teal) for Wakehurst for L4L Booths and it does appear that the area, on a 1st Preference basis, still had the Liberal Party in front, albeit with the Primary Margin to the Teal of around 42.5 – 37.5.

This means that about 80% of the Primary Vote is already Swallowed up by the Liberal Party and Independent, leaving about 20% to be scrapped out amongst others, as Mick Q rightfully points out.

From here, it would come down to preferences. Traditionally, in this seat, the Coalition gets about an additional 3PP in preferences, while 50% of the remaining votes exhaust (in line with the state average).

This means that there is just 7PP in additional preferences to come in. This would mean that the Liberal Party would still win the seat but the margin would only be 1%.

For the Independent to win, 1 of two things needs to happen:
1. The Liberal Party Primary Vote would need to drop below 41%
2. The Independent would need to improve their preference harvest by an additional 3PP on top of anything else that the Liberal Party gets for Preferences.

Based on these scenarios, it is a Toss-Up if the Independent runs, leaning to the Liberal Party but it would be very close.

Mick Q and Hawkeye_au.

I think you are both starting with the assumption that tactical voting by ALP and Greens voters will be as high in the state election as at the Federal. Many others have said that they don’t see a Teal wave as strong in March as in May 2022. Given, it might happen here in Wakehurst with a high profile existing local IND switching to state politics and as you have said in the past Hakweye_au, the Labor brand is very dormant in the northern beaches. (with only 3.3% garnered by an IND in 2019, ALP/GRN was only 27% in 2019, so with positive swing and the subtraction of tactical voting, around 20% could be right) But I don’t see it being the case across all the northern Sydney seats.

In 2019, with already existing decent IND campaigns, the ALP/GRN vote in North Shore was 24% and in Willoughby it was 25%. It was 30% across North Sydney federally even with about 15% lost to tactical voting. 20% to 30% might not seem great but for the reasons you mention above Hawkeye_au, it will make an IND success quite difficult. If the LIB primary vote is even high 30’s, the IND primary vote will have to be very close to the LIB primary for them to win (like well over 30%). They are not winning off <30% primary under OPV.

Take here as an example. Lib vote is just under 60% first preferences which means all else is about 40%. Most is left of
Centre but exhausting due opv. raises the 2pp to 70%. This is beyond Labor so they and the greens choose non liberal. Now two things happen there will be a swing to Labor of 6 to 8% if the polls are correct. Assume Mr Regan runs effectively a teal. Now it is quite possible that the liberals poll less than 50% should this happen then assuming the liberal vote on first preferences is in the mid to low 40s.. then it depends upon the make up of the left of centre non Regan vote. If Regan polled more than the liberals he wins because he cannot catch up out a pool of left of centre preferences. Now this is unlikely. More likely the liberals outpoll him. Now this comes down to the components of the of the left pool of preferences. If the minor left groups ksa ajp. And similar. Either don’t run or make up a small part of the pool leaving mainly alp and green then this harms the liberals as these preferences will be more strongly against the libs

There are ifs buts and maybes all through here.. but this is possible and Mr Regan only needs to outpoll Labor which is highly probable This is the scenario for the North Shore seats I have mentioned in other posts

Mistake in wording if Regan out polls the liberals than the liberals cannot catch up….

Northern Beaches Mayor Michael Regan confirms tilt at Wakehurst.

Michael Regan to run for Wakehurst as an Independent – Confirmed!

We have a match!

does Regan have to step down from mayor to run?
I assume no given that Clover Moore held both posts for a while

Don’t know if he is popular enough to win – though depends who the libs put up

No, he doesn’t have to step down to run. There are numerous councillors running for very winnable spots including off the top of my head the mayors of Parramatta, Ryde and Camden.

If he’s elected he’ll probably step down as mayor but not as councillor. There is a time limit on how long you can stay on council after winning a state seat but it’s set so that none of councillor-MPs will need to resign before the September 2024 council elections.

Clover Moore is not a good example because they famously changed the laws to force her to pick a job. While the law gives you some time to do both jobs if you’re a councillor first, it doesn’t work the other way. You’ve gotta quit your state seat to be a councillor (not sure if it applies at the point of nomination or later) so in September 2012 when Clover Moore ran for re-election as lord mayor she was forced to quit her state seat and Alex Greenwich won the subsequent by-election.

Actually Greg Piper was in a similar position – he was first elected to state parliament in 2007 but ran for re-election as directly-elected mayor of Lake Macquarie in 2008. But the law was focused on Clover.

The 2011 election also saw a lot of councillors elected to parliament but the rest happily left their council at the end of their term.

@Ben – thanks for the clarifications.

The Mayor (or ex) of Camden was rumoured to be looking to challenge for Liberal pre-selection, but either she didn’t, or she didn’t win. It’s sometimes mentioned (pretty unfairly) as another example of Liberal women losing out to Liberal men.

The Labor Mayor of Lane Cove has been the state candidate the last two times, but is not standing this year.

Ben is correct with the likely situation for Michael Regan if he does get elected to the seat. He would step down as Mayor but continue on as a Councillor until the next election. Candy Bingham was the Deputy Mayor of the current Council but, given that she runs on a different ticket, I daresay that, if Regan is successful, Sue Heins or Jose Menano-Pires would be the new mayor, given their seniority position within the YNB Ticket

The Liberal mayor of Camden is running as the Liberal candidate for Leppington.

Ah – that’s true. Getting my Mayor’s and seats mixed up.

Regan confirms he will step down as mayor but remain a Councillor.

Ran some initial numbers for the Branch, looking at the 2022 Federal Result and Mashing together the results from the 2021 Council Election.

It looks like that the Liberal Party will be starting from a base of around 40.5-41.5%, which would be the lowest Liberal Primary vote in the history of the seat, just eclipsing the rest from the 1981 Wran-slide, when the seat was under Labor Control under Tom Webster. To put it in perspective, the lowest that Brad Hazzard ever went was 2003 with 47.2%, when Vince De Luca left the Liberal Party to run as an Independent against Brad. Brad still won the 2PP on 62.7%.

I then have Regan currently sitting around 37.5%, with his big strength being around Allambie and Frenches Forest. Lets Take 41-37.5% between Williams and Regan, which leaves 21.5% to be shared between the Greens, Labor and other minor parties, if they run. Assuming 50% of preferences exhaust, you are left with 10.75% of Preferences to be distributed.

On these numbers, Regan would be in with a real shot to win on the back of preferences, assuming he takes 70% of the preferences, as it would make the final margin (not adjusting for exhaustion) 45%-44%.

For Toby to win, he will need to get his Primary vote beyond 45%. If he does that, then the margin to chase on preferences will be too big.

Great analysis Hawkeye. I think that Toby will win still. If he needs a 45% primary that means the Libs would have to suffer a 13% loss on primary for him to be in a losing position as you note. I can’t see a 13% loss on the liberal primary vote in this seat honestly?

I do think however the other candidate that contested liberal preselection Wendy Finianos would’ve won this seat much more easily.

Yes very good analysis by .Hawkeye. primary votes are of course educated guesses. But it is a fair the liberal primary vote will fall.in most seats

The left of centre vote is largely alp green and other minor. Some of alp and green voters will vote directly for Mr Regan
The relative composition of the left over pool of “left” votes is important the more it is Labor and green the worse it is for the liberals as Labor and greens are more able to direct their preferences just vote 1 alp.2 Regan
My gut feeling is the exhaust rate will be less than 50%

As I said in.another pos

As I said in an earlier post there are lots of guesses here
Primary votes.. preference pool
and exhaust rates. Hawke eye could we

Well be correct , I.would estimate a better chance for.Mr Regan. Apologies for my
Typos

I feel like the parts of the seat west of the Wakehurst Parkway just do not have room for the Liberal vote to drop below 42% of the primary vote for a state election. It was Tony Abbott’s best part of the seat and relatively weak for Sophie Scamps compared to the areas to the east. The eastern parts are more independent friendly but this is ultimately less of a coastal seat and more inland. The starting primary vote of 59.9% from 2019 is much higher than any of the teal seats and more comparable to Bradfield, which had a large swing but was retained by the Liberal party. Regan did well at the council level but that doesn’t necessarily translate into success at a statewide level, as shown in the seats of Pittwater in 2007, Hornsby in 2011, North Shore and Wollondily in 2019. I think the last local Mayor to win a seat as an Independent from the Liberals was Pittwater in 2005 at a by-election, although the Liberals regained that soon after. Ultimately, my prediction is:
LIB: 41%
IND: 34%
ALP: 11%
GRN: 8%
OTH: 6%

2CP:
LIB: 50.5%
IND: 49.5%

Ben… this is my point exactly the seat is competitive. In your example almost 20% alp and green. A slightly stronger flow of preferences would make a difference to your predicted result.

I think the boundary change will make it easier for the libs to hold on here

Dunno how accurate it is at this point but AE Forecasting is currently predicting Williams Primary Vote to drop to 48%. This is about the lowest that Hazzard ever got within the seat and was due to an independent running in the seat (being Vince De Luca).

The difference between then and now is about who finishes in 2nd place. Back then, De Luca finished 3rd and exhausted his votes, meaning that Hazzard won the 2PP easily.

Different situation if Regan runs. The Modelling from AE Forecasting is probably under-reporting the likelihood of tactical voting and Regan taking votes off Williams directly. I think the former is very realistic (aka tactical voting) but, given the relatively strong profiles of both candidates, it will be tricky to ascertain how much Regan will take away from Williams directly.

On top of that, from the last election, the exhaustion rate of preferences was very high, around the 70% mark of remaining votes. That will likely come down as it would be expected that both Labor and the Greens will direct their preferences to Regan. Even then, I would only expect Exhaustion to improve to 50%.

@Hawkeye How much of a profile does Williams have in Wakehurst?

saw some libs out at Forestway shops bus stop waving Toby Williams placards the other afternoon

Sorry. Missed these posts.
@Ben – Toby’s Profile is pretty good. Apart from his roles with the Dee Why RSL and Harbord Bowling Club, solid profiles with the Warringah Aquatic Club, President of the Manly-Warringah Football Referees Association, Leader within the local Salvation Army, plus his well-known connections in Rugby League (Toby played junior rugby league with Tom Trbojevic while his father is Darrel Williams, who is a premiership winner with Manly-Warringah back in 1987 and played for New Zealand). So his connections do run very wide.

@Bazza – The early momentum has been with Toby, in terms of activity. At this stage, it appears that Regan is hoping that his experience as Mayor will get him over the line.

Recent announcement around PEP-11, along with the announcement that the issue on Lizard Rock Development is waiting on final agreement from the Indigenous Land Council before proceeding, appears to have killed off 2 of Regan’s big campaign narratives.

The other big issue for this seat is the Wakehurst Parkway in general. The debate line is that the State Government had originally secured $75m in funding from the Federal Government to upgrade the Wakehurst Parkway to make it flood proof but Albanese has pulled the funding and declared it will not happen

Just in relation to the funding for the Parkway, the money, $75 million, that was promised by the Morrison government was to be used in conjunction with money from the state govt on the other side of Warringah Road, at the intersection of Aquatic Drive and Wakehurst Parkway. It was never meant to be used for the flooded areas.

I believe that may be correct. It was originally set up for the building of Beaches Link, connecting the Parkway to WestConnex

Sue – that’s not correct. The funding was designed for deep creek and the general area between Oxford falls and the sports academy.
It’s actually worse than it reads because Regan and the council got 18m from the state for the commencement of the project and banked it in general revenue.

my understanding was
the feds promised some funding for some extra lanes south of Warringah road
Council sent out community feedback for 3 options to improve flood resilience on northern part and they were going to go ahead with that project (not about state funding for it)

@moderate nah, you’re wrong. The $150 mil – 75 fed, 75 state – was for ‘upgrades’ that wouldn’t fix the flooding.