Wakehurst – NSW 2023

LIB 21.8%

Incumbent MP
Brad Hazzard, since 1991.

Geography
Northern beaches of Sydney. Wakehurst covers central parts of the Northern Beaches local government area, including the suburbs of Collaroy, Cromer, Dee Why, Beacon Hill, Frenchs Forest, Allambie Heights, Killarney Heights, Forestville and parts of Dee Why.

Redistribution
Wakehurst shifted north, losing part of Dee Why to Manly, gaining the remainder of Forestville and Oxford Falls and part of Belrose from Davidson. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 21.0% to 21.8%.

History
Wakehurst has existed since 1962. It has been won by the Liberal Party at all but two elections over the last half-century.

The seat was first won in 1962 by Dick Healey of the Liberal Party. He moved to the new seat of Davidson in 1971. He served as a minister in the Coalition state government from 1973 to 1976, and retired in 1981.

Wakehurst was won in 1971 by Allan Viney. He held the seat until his defeat in 1978 by the ALP’s Tom Webster. The 1978 election was a landslide for the ALP under Neville Wran, and Wakehurst was one of a number of traditional Liberal seats to fall to Labor.

Webster was re-elected at the 1981 election but was defeated in 1984 by Liberal candidate John Booth. Booth held the seat until 1991, when he lost preselection to Brad Hazzard.

Hazzard has held Wakehurst since 1991. He joined the Coalition frontbench after the 1995 election, and served in a variety of portfolios while the Coalition was in opposition, and has been a minister since the Coalition won in 2011.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Brad Hazzard is not running for re-election.

  • Sue Wright (Labor)
  • Greg Mawson (Sustainable Australia)
  • Susan Sorensen (Animal Justice)
  • Ethan Hrnjak (Greens)
  • Toby Williams (Liberal)
  • Michael Regan (Independent)

    • Assessment
    Wakehurst is typicall a very safe Liberal seat, but Hazzard’s retirement opens the door to a challenger, and local mayor Michael Regan is a strong independent candidate.

    2019 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
    Brad Hazzard Liberal 28,704 58.9 -5.0 59.8
    Chris Sharpe Labor 8,600 17.7 +2.2 16.9
    Lilith Zaharias Greens 4,867 10.0 -2.0 10.2
    Katika Schultz Keep Sydney Open 1,928 4.0 +4.0 3.9
    Susan Sorensen Animal Justice 1,685 3.5 +3.5 3.2
    Darren Hough Independent 1,606 3.3 +3.3 3.0
    Greg Mawson Sustainable Australia 1,322 2.7 +2.7 2.9
    Informal 1,537 3.1

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
    Brad Hazzard Liberal 30,182 71.0 -4.2 71.8
    Chris Sharpe Labor 12,326 29.0 +4.2 28.2

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Wakehurst have been split into three parts based around key suburbs: Collaroy in the north-east, Dee Why in the east and Frenchs Forest in the west.

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 69.3% in Dee Why to 73.9% in Collaroy.

    The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.5% in Collaroy to 10.6% in Frenchs Forest.

    Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
    Dee Why 9.7 69.3 13,720 27.3
    Collaroy 8.5 73.9 9,733 19.4
    Frenchs Forest 10.6 73.6 9,621 19.2
    Other votes 12.5 70.0 11,583 23.1
    Pre-poll 9.2 74.8 5,559 11.1

    Election results in Wakehurst at the 2019 NSW state election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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    141 COMMENTS

    1. Brad Hazzard has this seat as long as he wants it. The only person in the area who could mount a serious contest for this would be Mayor Michael Regan running as an independent and it is very unlikely that this will happen.

      Liberal Hold

    2. Hawkeye, I think Brad Hazzard might be the longest serving MP (state or Federal) in the country, given that he has served continuously since 1991. His record even surpasses that of Bob Katter who has served since 1993 and is on par with Kevin Andrews who lost preselection at the most recent Federal election.

      Given his age (70 years old), this might be the last election he contests. Especially if the Coalition lose the election and he serves in opposition post 2023.

    3. I suspect Mr Hazzard will call it a day. Few people contest a seat in parliament aged over 70 for obvious and sane reasons. This like Manly is teal central

    4. Certainly granted, given his age, that he could call it a day. I have it on good authority that he considered retiring after Gladys resigned. However, Dom wanted him to stay in the position.

      Having said that, given his overall performance in what is normally a ‘poisoned chalice’ of a role “Health”, he has done a pretty decent job. So I don’t think the Teals would like consider running against Brad, given his solid record, even if they decided to run.

      In terms of who comes into the seat if he does decide to retire, lets just say that, on the ground, there is a genuine lack of talent around. There is one local (whom I will keep nameless for now) who could slot into the position very well and is popular amongst both rank-and-file and the general public but he is incredibly young.

      I’ll keep posted when I hear from pre-selection/endorsement.

    5. There’s no confirmation on Brad Hazzard’s future. It’s a safe seat anyway.

      Wakehurst covers the less teal and more old-school Liberal parts and inland parts of both Warringah and Mackeller. The most teal parts of the Northern Beaches are north and south of Wakehurst (the electorate).

    8. This sits on an inflated margin.. assume the indep 3% odd splits roughly 50/50 then on primary votes something like 60/40… the extra must be due to a high exhaust rate of opv.. a 10% swing would make this a much narrower result.

    9. Did manage to bump into Brad at a football presentation and he gave no indication of retirement.
      Until I hear otherwise, I’d say it is fair safe to assume that Hazzard will run again.
      @bazza, I did hear that campaign was running but I also know that those who are pushing it are the ex-labor contingency of that teal movement. The disillusioned liberal sections of that Teal Movement that I have spoken to have said that they would rather not run against Brad, as they believe he is a fair representative of the local area. There are similar sentiments with Rob Stokes and James Griffiths.

    10. I’ll be assuming he is retiring until he states otherwise. I can list plenty of examples of politicians pulling the plug at the last possible moment before pre-selection (and in rare cases even pulling out after pre-selection and the party then has to select a new candidate provided it isn’t after the official deadline for the ballot papers)

      Didn’t Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne pull the plug federally last minute?

    11. @Daniel, I lived in his electorate for nearly my entire life and I am on very good speaking terms with him. It is comments like the one you just gave that lessen your credibility even further.
      Seriously dude, you need to learn when to just take on face value when it is from a strong source.

    12. @Hawkeye_au agree that there doesn’t seem to be the same disillusion with the state Libs in this part of the world as there was at federal level. Also doesn’t seem much groundswell of support for an independent – especially as no one with any profile has put up their hand

    13. Could be interesting to watch. One of the most pro-teal seats on the North Shore, the Liberals will need to get ~60% of the vote in the Forestville area whilst preventing a surge in the beachside areas (in event of a teal run). An easy task, given that momentum for the teals seems to be more federal, but interesting for the observer nonetheless.

    14. If I was over 70 I would retire for life style reasons.. but to each their own. There are arguments in both directions if in danger from a teal or a fractured vote you could stay around to help your party. I suspect Ken Wyatt did that in wa.if you know you are going to lose why stay round in opposition? The environment irrespective of Mr Hazzard’s choice suggests a greater likelihood of a by-election..I have no links to the libs so I don’t know. I would take at face value Mr Hazzards announcement

    15. Forgot Bob Katter also served in state parliament for almost 20 years from 1974 to 1992 so in terms of total parliamentary service, he surpasses Brad Hazzard.

    17. 36th Parliament, which was devoid of a Kennedy Katter, ran from election on 23/3/1990 to election on 13/3/1993. Three years, less ten days.
      Some consolation in seeing Rob Hulls enjoying ‘because I’m going to do you slowly’ taunt.
      Yoh an: As far as continuous service in a chamber, you’d be right. Kim Wells has been in Victorian Assembly since 1992.
      btw Kevin Andrews entered parliament at 1991 by-election.

    18. Phil, in terms of longest serving members the ones currently in office who have served continuously for 30+ years are Brad Hazzard (NSW), Kim Wells (Victoria) and also Fiona Simpson (Queensland) who was first elected in 1992.

    20. Broadbent was elected to Corinella in 1990 but was defeated in 1993. Thus he was out of Parliament for 2 years before being elected to McMillan in 1996. He was also out for 6 years between 1998 and 2004 when Christian Zahra held McMillan for Labour

    22. The Teal Movement has started to try something but, as has been reported in other sources, it is struggle to gain traction, given that, relative to the Federal Level, the NSW Liberal Party doesn’t have the same issues with disillusionment.

      Furthermore, there is the issue around donations as well, which is significantly capped. Reports are that Simon Holmes a Court is not keen on doing NSW and will more likely focus on Victoria.

    23. I doubt there’ll be a federal-style teal movement as strong or successful at the state election. There’s a group called North Sydney’s Independent and they’re doing something teal-like. They’re focusing on Lane Cove, Lower North Shore and Willoughby. Based on demographics and federal electoral results, Wakehurst and Vaucluse are perhaps the least teal-friendly state seats with teal federal members.

      Simon Holmes a Court will probably stick to the Victorian election as that’s his home state. One reason why he backed the teal campaign federally was that he had a personal vendetta against Josh Frydenberg, and he has now achieved what he wanted to do originally.

    24. 100% correct Votante. Simon Holmes a Court would look to finish off the Vendetta by attempting to weed out the last of the Liberal Party Members from East Melbourne. That is where his focus will be. I doubt there will be that much attention in Sydney.

      North Sydney’s Independents are attempting to run off the back of Kylea Tink and Nicolette Boele. They might have a shot in other seats but the Northern Beaches looks unlikely

    26. Wow. There are more MPs confirmed to retire at the 2023 election that at the 2019 election, and the election is still five months away.

    27. @Votante not a good look for the NSW Libs given basically all their most popular frontbenchers are retiring. Seems like a rat fleeing the sinking ship scenario.

    28. Inside word is that he is being pushed aside. He had no intention of retiring but HQ want to avoid a messy preselection in Davidson.

      My money is that they will grant this seat to Natalie ward.

      The other possibility (and it makes me sick to say so) is Alex Dore.

    30. I’m laughing. I said before HAZZARD was going to pull the plug but nobody believed me. Absolutely marvellous.

      I saw it coming. Believe me.

      He has no intention on being in opposition at his age and wants to give an opportunity for fresh blood in the liberal party so that the new MP can build up profile for when they get back into government.

    32. @Daniel T – seriously, shut up. I’ve already given you the inside line on what is going on. Unless you have something constructive to provide, stop commenting.

      @Yoh An – David Elliott wasn’t entirely pushed into retirement. The redistributions meant that he was on a collision course with Ray Williams in Kellyville. Elliott attempted to transfer over to Castle Hill (aka effectively swap seats with Williams) but the local branches and Perrottet are throwing their support behind former NSW YL President Noel McCoy. Elliott was offered Riverstone but he declined the seat and opted to retire instead. It is pure power-play going on there.

      @Mick – Alex Dore is another former NSW YL President, who became infamous as the person who hosted the Sydney Uni Liberal Club Dinner where Alan Jones said that he thought that Julia Gillard’s father “Died of Shame”. Fun Fact – I was there with my then GF (now Mrs Hawkeye) and I can tell you that we laughed that really awkward “Ha Ha did he just say that?” laugh. Since his Young Liberal Days, Alex Dore has basically been seat shopping and moved up to the Northern Beaches with his partner. Recently, he also tried to take Pre-selection for the Seat of Warringah, and then Hughes, at the recent Federal Election.

      He is the epitome of a no-life political hack.

    33. Early names trickling through for Pre-Selection for the Liberal Party:
      *Walter Villatora – Former Warringah FEC President and close ally of Tony Abbott
      *Clr Georgia Ryburn – Currently on Northern Beaches Council
      *Toby Williams – Current Staffer to Brad Hazzard and massive community profile, including the board of Dee Why RSL and President of the Manly-Warringah Football Referees Association. Fun Fact – Also the son of Former Sea Eagle and NZ Rugby League Player Daryl Williams.

      Out of these 3, I’d say Toby Williams would be odds-on, especially as I would expect Brad to directly recommend him.

    34. Daniel, Brad Hazzard’s retirement was ‘forced’ as Hawkeye indicated. Hazzard wanted to run for re-election, but party HQ wanted someone else to run instead.

      What you argued in your earlier post is that Hazzard would retire on his own terms, which is not the case here.

    35. I thought the “forced”” part of Hazzard’s retirement might have been to get McClaren-Jones in here (not sure if branches here more helpful to that than Pittwater) and allow Ward to have (or have a go at) Davison. Seems odd that he would have been forced out only to have one of his staffers replace him. At most it seems to be just an attempt to get new blood in?

      So McClaren-Jones is staying put in the LC?

    36. Hi @Insider,
      The branches in Wakehurst would have been in much more favour for MacLaren-Jones, compared to Pittwater. The situation in Pittwater is a long-time factional build-up started by John Brogden and completed by Jason Falinski. They tried to move into Wakehurst but that never happened.

      In terms of young blood, that is certainly the case with Toby and Georgia. Another name being thrown up is Clr David Walton, formerly with NSW Pol and currently on Northern Beaches Council.

    37. I decided to break down the likely 2CP for this electorate from the Redbridge poll:
      Primary:
      LIB: 37%
      ALP: 24%
      IND: 19%
      GRN: 10%
      OTH: 8%
      As 3% are undecided and there is no way of knowing what the Others vote may go to, there is around a 4% margin of error for this estimate.
      2PP:
      LIB 6.3% vs ALP, LIB 5.2% vs IND
      A 15.6% swing against the Liberals is not likely but they’d still win on these numbers.

    38. Looks Like Liberal Party Preselection is boiling down to a 3-horse race between:
      *Toby Williams – Staffer to Brad Hazzard and various community roles, including Board Member of DY RSL.
      *Clr David Walton – Councillor on Northern Beaches Council, former Policer Investigator and former board member of NSW Police Super
      *Wendy Finianos – Former Warringah Chamber of Commerce President and current Business Consultant, who challenged Brad Hazzard for Preselection for 2019.

      The key change that has occurred for this preselection is the Forest Branch transferring from Davidson to Wakehurst, which makes the seat much more marginal in terms of who will win pre-selection. In the past, it would have been a straight shoot-out between Williams and Walton. But the addition of Davidson makes it a lot closer and a lot more open.

    39. The Liberals need to get their act together in this seat and Pittwater, preselection for a candidate less than 4 months out makes it a lot easier for the teals to win.

    41. Ben your figures suggest what is possible. If I saw the federal election I would if we’re a teal be tempted to nominate
      The very fact that the liberals allow factional skull duggery to have a major impact on the preselection is not good also to not have a candidate in the field less than 3 months out is not good.

    42. The margin here is inflated by about 10% due to the impact
      Of opv. Labor held this seat 1978 to 84. At this time they were polling 60/40 roughly
      This is unlikely to repeat ..I would not say this seat is a certain liberal retain. BUT in a straight contest they would beat Labor.. but if there is a teal in the field this gives that teal a chance of victory. And I would not be surprised if there was a teal like independent and labor and green voters and other left
      Of centre candidates vote tactically. Remember if the libs are outpolled by the teal.. they cannot catch up on nominally left preferences .. they are gone.

    44. Confirmed here as well that the Teals are struggling to find a candidate. They may end up not doing so, as there is a rumour swirling around that Northern Beaches Council Mayor Michael Regan will run as an independent.

      If he does run, this seat will go to the wire. If he doesn’t run, should be a Liberal Retain

    46. I think the teal movement was a flash in the pan, and now the job is for all the teal incumbents to get reelected as local independents. It won’t be easy for new ones to win, although Dutton is the right leader for it.

      As I’ve said in other pages, Matt Kean will put the brakes on any progress teals might be able to make, and OPV will take care of the rest. I expect Matt Kean to be all over the Sydney TV market, while in the bush they will pretend he doesn’t exist. He’s not popular among the far right but I expect a mysterious lack of PHON etc. in Western Sydney marginals, because if they did run OPV could hurt Lib chances.

    47. Agree John, the Liberals will be the highest polling party in almost all competitive seats against a minor party/independent challenger. This means OPV benefits the Liberals and so far, Zali Steggall is the only ‘teal’ independent who has won after leading on primary votes.

    48. Word is that David Walton may not run, meaning that it becomes a straight shoot-out between Wendy and Toby. The question on this pre-selection is how big Wendy’s support is within The Forest Branch.
      Based on what is currently out there for the current branches plus the Forest, Toby Williams would be in front 60:40. Rumour is that he may also get a very strong endorsement from Hazzard, which would likely seal the deal as well.
      The other word going around is that Michael Regan will run as an Independent, which will likely mean that the Teals won’t run in Wakehurst, meaning that the most likely situation is a straight shoot-out between Toby Williams and Michael Regan.

    50. If Toby Williams is a moderate, then Matt Kean should be supportive of his candidacy since both are aligned to the same faction. If not, then Matt Kean may back his opponent (Wendy) and campaign heavily against him.

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