Wahroonga – NSW 2023

I’ll jump in, since no-one else has.
Alaisteir Henskins expected to re-run here and should be no problem in retaining the seat.
I believe Nicolette Boele may either be running here or in Davidson. In a very cheeky move, she has now labelled herself the Shadow Member for Bradfield and may be considering running as the Shadow Member of the State Seat as well.
As with other Teal Candidates, donation limits will become a significant concern and the biggest issue that can come about is testing whether donations to her Federal Campaign can then be syphoned off to the State Campaign. I don’t know if that has been tested before.

Would be interesting to see how a Teal performs in the Pennant Hills to Hornsby corridor. The politics of this area is peculiar – despite being between the Ku-ring-gai area and the Hills District, it is much less Liberal-voting than either of these.

At the federal election, there were hefty swings towards Labor in this area, bringing it close to 50-50 between the major parties. If we consider a “swing” between the 2019 state election and 2022 federal election, that’s around a 10% to 15% “swing” to Labor.

How many of these voters might be willing to support a Teal?

Nicholas demographically is the Pennant Hills to Hornsby corridor slowly becoming more multicultural? I know it is less diverse compared to suburbs to the south (around Epping/Eastwood).

I had a look at some more Brisbane area polling place results, and even those in affluent leafy suburbs like Kenmore, Mogill and Pullenvale were only just won by LNP candidate Julian Simmonds with 2PP margins <55% and under 45% primary vote as well. If these areas are comparable to places on the North Shore of Sydney (which I suspect may be the case), then the Liberal Party will be in trouble.

The key to the Liberals winning Drummoyne, Ryde, Epping, Wahroonga and Hornsby are the suburbs along the Northern train line. For Drummoyne, the Liberals need to hold up decently from North Strathfield to Rhodes. For Ryde they need to hold from Meadowbank to Eastwood, even if they perform well in the more Liberal leaning east of the seat. Epping is a tough one for the Liberals, they’ll need to win big in the suburbs from Epping to Beecroft to offset the swing to Labor in the western part of the seat which loses Geoff Lee’s personal vote. From Pennant Hills to Hornsby it doesn’t matter as much but the Liberals should try and hold up well there.

Agree with most of your analysis Ben, most suburbs adjacent to the rail line are often more diverse/multicultural and also less affluent compared to those that have riverfront views so the Liberal vote would naturally be lower.

Out of those seats I actually think Epping is the hardest one for the Liberals to hold, more so than Ryde and Drummoyne because both of those setas has a Liberal leaning riverfront and extend to the Liberal heartland to the east of the rail line rather than Epping which extends to the west.

@Yoh An

Yes, it is less diverse than Epping or Eastwood, but it is becoming more diverse, with a large and growing Chinese population.

Even if we go back a decade or more, this area still voted significantly further to the left than areas to the east or west. All the demographic indicators suggest to me this shouldn’t be the case. I lived in Cherrybrook (where the Liberal vote has always been much stronger) and frequently travelled to and through this area. Still never found any explanation for this.

The only thing I can think of is it’s an area that has been established for a *very* long time, or perhaps there are lifestyle factors that attract left-leaning people. To the former point, perhaps this is also evident in Baulkham Hills – it is the oldest (in terms of when it was established) part of the Hills District, and also the weakest for the Liberal Party.

Agree Nicholas, more developed/established suburbs tend to be more left leaning. Looking at other parts of Brisbane (specifically the Logan council area) the more established parts around Springwood and Rochedale are generally Labor leaning whilst those further south closer to Gold Coast like Beenleigh and Cornubia are Liberal leaning.

Hornsby itself has a considerable Asian population which is now into at least its 2nd generation and this has filtered out into the surrounding suburbs. Over the past decade there has also been a major change with much of the postwar housing stock being replaced by medium density development along the transport corridor north of Hornsby up to Berowra.

With regards to voting trends, Boele carried most of the Northern booths around Hornsby but fell short in a few due to preference leakage. What WAS interesting was the Lib/Lab 2pp for the shared Bradfield/Berowra booths as well as the Berowra booths along the corridor from Normanhurst up to the river. It was a 5 vote margin Lib 11002/Lab 10997 50.01/49.99 !! Lib did win the Berowra pre-poll @55% and Hornsby pre-poll 53.5% although the Hornsby pre-poll figures would have taken in a few thousand voters in suburbs south along the North Shore line.

Berowra is, in essence, three different electorates or at least three separate voting demographics in one. The older more established suburbs along the railway/road corridor; whilst still Liberal leaning, is going through some significant demographic changers and may be unpredictable for a while. The Cherrybrook/West Pennant Hills sprawl gravitates more to Castle Hill than Hornsby as a hub and thus tends to mirror much of Mitchell voting wise. The semi rural areas of Hornsby Shire ..,,, the Liberal vote is weighed not counted and provides the bulk of the “fat” in the Lib margin for Berowra and the inclusion of some of these booths into Hornsby provide a ‘safety net’.

With regards to Wahroonga and Henskens, he lacks the profile and visibility/profile of Kean in Hornsby but he can point to items like Hornsby hospital redevelopment as “wins”. Boele’s strongest areas (outside the historically marginal Hornsby booths) were from Warrawee then along the Commenara Parkway through southern/western Turramurra/West Pymble, Gordon and parts of Lindfield before winning booths on the southern fringe around Chatswood.

The results of the federal election would have Berowra look like a somewhat competitive seat were it not for its semi-rural part.

The “transport corridor” ……. absolutely !! The following is my breakdown of the Berowra vote from the May election. I classify “the corridor” as being the most established suburbs that are largely tied to the railway/road corridor from Cheltenham north to the Hawkesbury River.

Corridor booths LIB 12,332/LAB 11,608 51.51/48.49% primary swing -5.5%/2PP swing -5.13%
Cherrybrook/WPH LIB 8,161/LAB 5,587 59.36/40.46% primary swing -9.28%/2PP swing -6.99%
Semi-rural LIB 8,435/LAB 3,018 73.65/26.35% primary swing -9.98%/2PP swing -5.37%

Corridor pre-poll LIB 8,516/LAB 7,068 54.65/45.35% primary swing -12.13%/2PP swing -11.38%
C’brook/WPH p/p LIB 6,834/LAB 3,347 67.13/32.87% primary swing -6.65%/2PP swing -3.82

The Lib primary vote failed to break 50% in ANY booth along the corridor; for the most part being mid-high 30s/low 40s.

Do these very stark contrasts in voting and demographics, along with the reality of much of the seat (ie Cherrybrook/WPH/semi-rural) gravitating to centres outside the electorate make it a candidate for abolition ?? A case could certainly be made.

Agree Common wombat, Berowra as a federal district doesn’t really have a good community of interest as it seems to be a hybrid urban-rural district. Some commentators mentioned that it could be split such that the Hornsby end is moved into Bradfield and the Cherrybrook/WPH end is combined with Mitchell.

Let’s all just call it now – The Tally Room Posters League for the Abolition of Berowra (or the TRPLAB).

I mean, its not even a nice electorate name…..

Rather than abolishing Berowra, I’d look at moving the Hornsby bit into Bradfield, and have it instead take in the northern parts of Mitchell.

If you abolished Berowra, you’d have to drag one of Parramatta, Greenway, or Macquarie quite a long way over to soak up the excess.

Bradfield already takes in much of Hornsby and the eastern half of Asquith (next stop north).

I AM very much onside with Bradfield moving north and absorbing the rest of Hornsby and the rest of the corridor up to Brooklyn on the Hawkesbury River. To accomodate this:
– North Sydney would need to move north and absorb the remainder of Chatswood … maybe even a little further north.
– move St Ives and east of Arterial Road into Mackellar which might see some shift of its southern boundary with Warringah.

I can go along with Berowra NOT being abolished but rather being renamed and along the lines of your proposition constitute:

– the northern parts of Mitchell
– the Cherrybrook/WPH sprawl
– most of the semi-rural parts of what is now Berowra (maybe some scope for some on the fringes finding their way into either Greenway or Macquarie).

Bradfield currently takes in some of Normanhurst (main Northern line). I could see it potentially going a little further south to Pennant Hills. Could Bennelong maybe absorb Cheltenham and even maybe Beecroft ?

Yes, your suggestion is good Common wombat. Overall, for the next NSW redistribution I see boundaries focussed for northern Sydney districts using LGA boundaries where possible.

My take on fixing the northern Sydney districts:

Parramatta being under quota should absorb the remainder of its namesake council – gaining North Rocks, Winston Hills and the balance of Carlingford from Mitchell. It may then need to shed its southern end around Cumberland Council to McMahon.

Bennelong becomes a combination of Epping and Ryde state districts, absorbing Cheltenham and Beecroft from Berowra.

Mitchell then gains WPH, Cherrybrook and the rural parts of Hills Shire from Berowra.

Bradfield loses Chatswood and Roseville to North Sydney, and possibly St Ives to Mackellar. The rest of Bradfield is then combined with the rural parts of Hornsby Shire from Berowra.

I suggested that Cherrybrook be transferred to Mitchell way back in the redistribution ahead of the 2016 election, although at the time given the numbers it was probably not a good suggestion.

I intend to make a suggestion for the next federal NSW redistribution, and I have come to similar conclusions to the above comments. The numbers probably won’t allow for Berowra to be abolished, but it should be possible (if not necessary) for Bradfield to stretch to the Hawkesbury River and for Berowra to shift west. The boundaries I am thinking of would have Berowra essentially become an enlargened version of the new Castle Hill district.

I’ve investigated the flow-on effects of this, and it is likely that Mitchell will end up straddling (Old) Windsor Road, which I would argue is not a bad thing.

Further west and southwest, there are some challenges. It would be nice if Parramatta could become a compact rectangle between the M4 and M2, but this may not be possible without turning McMahon into an even worse bits-and-pieces electorate than it is now.

I don’t agree at all with Parramatta following council boundaries – those simply make no sense with the namesake CBD of Parramatta being at the south-western edge, and not including Westmead, Mays Hill, Wentworthville, Holroyd and so on which naturally gravitate to it. Instead, it stretches all the way to Epping and Olympic Park which gravitate to centres like Ryde and Strathfield. Those boundaries were a rather thinly veiled attempt at turning Parramatta into a Liberal-leaning council back during Mike Baird’s government with limited community of interest.

I would shift Bradfield and Berowra west – which neatly fits into the likely need to increase the size of under-quota Northern Beaches and North Shore electorates. Mitchell could either realign to cross Old Windsor Road and gain the northern parts of Greenway while losing West Pennant Hills/Castle Hill to Berowra or (as comments above mention) Berowra could gain the northern parts of Mitchell while Mitchell shifts south-east. I personally think the corridor along Old Windsor Road should be relatively unified so I prefer the former (Greenway also sheds some voters which will be needed).

The big question in NSW come 2023 is whether it can keep 47 seats. It is pretty clear that Victoria will lose a seat and based on my calculations of the ABS figures, NSW looked to be staring the loss of a seat. WA and Queensland would pick up one each. Between some seats being very under quota now and the loss of a seat, NSW would be in line for a big redistribution in some areas – particularly Northern and Southern Sydney.

Yoh An, whilst I can agree with most of your suggestions; I will dissent with regards to using LGA boundaries.

Most of the semi-rural booths in Berowra are part of Hornsby Shire rather than Hills. Cherrybrook is Hornsby Shire and WPH split between Hornsby & Hills. However, Hornsby is no longer the service/shopping hub for the majority with the likes of Castle Hill largely taking over.

The reality is that with no direct rail link or bus services; Hornsby is “one helluva hike” for most of the semi-rural parts of Hornsby Shire with the only direct road having to traverse Galston gorge whose numerous hairpins can be precarious in poor weather and is not open to larger/commercial vehicles. The alternate route is via Pennant Hills which is some way south.

Hornsby is, however, the hub for the northern end of Bradfield (the sprawling suburbs of Wahroonga & Turramurra) which are part of Ku-ring-gai municipality. However this community of interest does exist whereas it is now ever decreasing with regards to the semi-rural areas of Hornsby Shire

I had forgot about that possibility – if NSW loses a seat, then the abolition of Berowra is certainly on the table.

IIRC, the next federal NSW redistribution is due early next year by the seven year rule. Can entitlements change between now and then?

Common wombat, I indicated use of LGA boundaries where possible. I agree with you that Cherrybrook belongs better in a district with Castle Hill due to transport links (buses and metro) rather than Hornsby.

I think LGA boundaries for Hornsby and Hills Shire are not drawn well, with a better configuration being Hornsby and all suburbs along the rail line being united with Ku-ring-gai to form a larger council entity. Then the remaining rural suburbs such as Dural and Galston are combined with the Hills Shire along with Cherrybrook and WPH.

Alister Henskens is the Liberal candidate according to the NSWEC’s register of candidates.

Nicholas, the entitlement determination date will be August 2023 based on it being 1 year after the new parliament first sits. I believe the electoral laws allow a scheduled 7-year rule redistribution to be deferred if it is likely that a state/territory will change its seat entitlement. This happened with the ACT redistribution pre-2016 election (although the ACT still fell short of gaining its 3rd seat at that time).

I fear that all this (undeniably intruiging) Berowra abolition discussion has diverted us from actually discussing Wahroonga itself.

Whilst I DID vote for Boele back in May; if she HAS been giving herself such airs and graces with these self proclaimed titles then she really is cruising for a metaphorical slap-down from the voters.

Getting onto her “numbers” from the May election, I have broken Bradfield into 3 segments; namely Hornsby, the North Shore Line corridor and western booths and St Ives/Eastern Arterial Road

Hornsby booths Lib 3,301/Boele 3,269 50.31/49.69 %
Corridor Lib 16,008/Boele 15,347 51.05/48.95 %
St Ives/Arterial Lib 7,205/Boele 5,707 55.80/44.2 %
Hornsby pre-poll Lib 3,493/Boele 2,910 55.45/45.45 %
Corridor pre-poll Lib 6,087/Boele 5,687 51.7/48.3 %
St Ives ore-poll Lib 4,610/Boele 3,171 59.25/40.75 %

Given the non-standard 2PP contest, I have disregarded 2PP swing but the fall in Lib primary vote was double figures across the entire electorate but the scope of the St Ives “fortress” was such that it was most comfortably absorbed.

Lib primary was still above 50% in most but not all St Ives booths but significantly lower in the rest of the eastern booths bar Castle Cove.

The only Corridor booths with Lib primary >50% were the very small Ku-ring-gai HS booth at the northern tip of North Turramurra, the small Wahroonga South booth and Wahroonga PS (only just).

There is only one strong Lib booth in the Hornsby sector; the very small Waitara South booth but otherwise the Lib primary was below 40%. However a strange leakage of some Lab/Green preferences in 2 booths prevented her from sweeping the rest. The stronger Lib performance in Hornsby pre-poll is probably explained by its “catchment area” including much of Wahroonga (a traditionally strong Lib area).

Along the corridor, it was curious to see the Lib primary below 40% in parts of Turramurra, Gordon & even Lindfield not just the sometimes marginal Chatswood.

Of the “other” votes; the majority was made up of postals which broke 60.79% Lib. Absentees more closely reflected the election day/pre-poll at just 51.5%

Wombat, going back to the general electorate discussion, I see this district behaving somewhat like the state seat of Moggill in Queensland. After assessing federal polling place results, both are considered to be the safest urban districts for the Coalition, but voters in some suburbs seem to prefer moderate, small ‘l’ Liberal candidates.

This would mean Wahroonga could be competitive either now or in the near future. For the Moggill area of Brisbane, the LNP suffered a big swing at the recent council election when moderate Kate Richards lost preselection to Greg Alderman who may have been more conservative.

I wonder if Nicolette Boele is behaving like Kate Richards, as the latter (Kate) had a bit of a sook and ultimately contested against Greg as an independent following her preselection loss at the 2020 BCC council election.

Your read for much of the Upper North Shore is probably fairly close to the mark. Whilst ancestrally Liberal; it probably gravitates more to the “small l” variety particularly on social issues. Hornsby is a somewhat different demographic to the Shore.

In many ways, I can see somewhat of a parallel with how a swathe of highly affluent south west London boroughs and constituencies such as Twickenham, Richmond, Kingston & Sutton are highly competitive between Liberal Democrats and Tories with the trend lines pointing increasingly towards LD.

Were such a “viable” voting option in existance over her; I could well see much of the North Shore becoming tenuous for the Libs along with Manly and maybe parts of the Eastern Suburbs. Whether the teal movement evolves into something more remains to be seen

Assuming a Teal runs here, how would Teal performance differ between the Hornsby LGA component and the Ku-ring-gai LGA component of this district?

Given we have differing variables, it can only be conjecture even putting aside Federal issues were a key driving force behind the swing to a Teal candidate. Granted, there is most likely a level of discontent/fatigue factor with the current Lib state government; its hard to quantify or compare to Federal. Here we are also talking 2 separate State electorates; both with sitting Lib members but with differing public profiles.

If we are taking Wahroonga state seat,the proportion inside the Hornsby LGA is probably only 1/3 of the Hornsby portion of Bradfield; 2 actual booths (including the one strong Lib booth) and one shared booth at Hornsby GHS.

Vote-wise; Lab carried all bar one booth in the Hornsby portion of Bradfield whereas there was preference leakage that cost Boele a couple (a handful of votes in each). Lab outperformed Boele on 2PP in pre-poll in this area.

In Ku-ring-gai LGA; we are again seeing the split between “the corridor” and St Ives. The remainder of the Arterial Rd booths essentially mirrored the vote along the corridor. There was much less preference leakage (primary/2PP) along the corridor than in St Ives.

I very much doubt a teal would do well on any seat on Sydney’s Upper North Shore given the government has a good climate record and with Optional Preferential Voting. The Upper North Shore really doesn’t match any part of Brisbane and an Independent, especially on the state level would not do well. This area is the kind of area which has more loyalty to the Liberal party and relatively moderate, although less so than the Lower North Shore. The reason the Liberals did so poorly in Berowra and Bradfield is because of Morrison’s unpopularity with women and climate change, even then the Liberal 2PP was still in the mid to high 50’s. The section from Pymble up to Waitara would see the teal get smashed by the Liberals but could probably do better than Labor while Labor would do better than the teals in the section from Pennant Hills to Normanhurst as that’s not teal territory. I very much doubt a teal could poll second here, Pennant Hill and Pymble are quite different areas. The North Shore Line suburbs are like area from Templestowe to Warrandyte in Melbourne, which is somewhat moderate while the Northern Line suburbs are more similar to possibly Croydon Hills or Doncaster.

I can certainly agree with regards to the dangers in trying to assume the level of carry-over (if any) from what may or may not have been a one-off circumstance Federally to a State election. But, conversely, proclaiming this recent Vic election as a definitive repudiation may also be premature given Libs were not in govt in Vic but are in NSW.

I concur regarding OPV however whilst NSW Lib govt didn’t carry the overall stench of Morrison & Co; they do have their quota of black marks. How well they will travel in various parts of Sydney remains to be seen. With regards to the seats in this area, Kean in Hornsby has very much created his own brand/profile as somewhat of a Lib rebel whereas Henskens is rather more “Alastair Who ?” at least in the northern parts of his seat.

Drawing comparisons with other cities and their suburban regions is somewhere I prefer not to go given the differing histories and infrastructures in place. Given a Teal did not contest Berowra, we cannot know what impact they may’ve had both overall and with regards to strong/weak areas.

What I can say is that whilst the Northern line suburbs in Berowra are slightly more affluent than those to the north; for the most part its not nearly as marked a contrast as along the North Shore line and the 2PP vote was essentially in line with Hornsby with Lab winning one of the Normanhurst booth and Thornleigh and Pennant Hills being within 10/20 votes each. FYI, Boele DID carry the Normanhurst shared booth !

The Lib/Lab 2PP margin in Bradfield was 6.55% as against 4.23 v Boele. Lab DID poll marginally better in their historically best areas at either end of the electorate but whilst Lab only won 2 booths outside these areas; the 2PP preferred largely mirrored that of Boele with her best corridor booths only being carried by Lib by margins of less than 3%. There was most definitely tactical voting by Lab/Grn voters but the quite narrow gap between the respective 2PP margins suggests there also had to have a significant switch by Lib voters.

FYI these are my Lib v Lab 2PP percentages for the various parts of Bradfield with booth & pre-poll combined
Hornsby Lib 50.87/Lab 49.13 %
Corridor Lib 54.75/Lab 45.25 %
St Ives Lib 61.35/Lab 38.65 %
Postal Lib 62.24/Lab 37.76 %
Absentee Lib 48.09/Lab 51.91 %

In reality, these largely mirror the Lib v Teal with Hornsby being marginally stronger for Lab whilst the corridor being about 3% stronger for Boele, St Ives 4%.

I’m frankly ambivalent regarding a Teal running in Wahroonga. They may/may not gain some traction. The strongest Lib areas of Bradfield are in Davidson and Henskens is distinctly low profile however this is ancestrally blue ribbon Lib turf but we are seeing some demographical changes and more fluidity in the Liberal vote with newer generations.

Calc opv bonus to the libs this
Is about 10% .with a teal in the
Contest and a 6% swing to Labor this will bring the seat closer. I would still.not except
an alp.win

A teal running on any of the Northern Line seats (Hornsby, Wahroonga, Epping, Ryde and Drummoyne) would not really get any traction, it’s not the right demographic.

Ben, we cannot truly make such a declaration with regards to demographics/Teal viability for most of those seats as only one of those was a Lib v Teal contest at the Federal election; ie Bradfield. Wahroonga does in fact largely mirror the section of Bradfield that proved the most Teal receptive. If anything, the demographics of Wahroonga

Do I think that a Teal can gain similar traction in the upcoming State election ? I’m sceptical but I can’t say it’s out of the question. Wahroonga’s closest parallels are the Eastern suburbs south of the Harbour and the eastern parts of the Lower North Shore; some of which have shown a history of electing and re-electing Independent State and Federal MPs. Previous Ku-ring-gai MPs have been high profile senior ministers and Premiers; the current incumbent is a comparative non-entity.

I’m not sure why you have included Drummoyne given it’s south of the Parramatta River and its only common interest being the Main Northern rail line and a limited amount of community of interest with Ryde.

I can agree that Ryde is a non-starter, maybe partly on demographics but moreso due to Lab being highly unlikely to run dead in an area where they are still competitive electorally.

Epping …. I really don’t know. Some areas could be receptive but it also takes in areas that are “tiger country” for any non Lib candidate.

Hornsby, without the “safety net” provided by Galston, Arcadia and part of Dural, would be a marginal seat. There is quite a strong Lab/Green vote in various parts of the seat, especially around Hornsby. Would they vote tactically for a Teal ? I suspect that for the most part, they could IF that Teal candidate actually created a profile for themselves however Kean is currently fairly unassailable. Should he leave and especially should the semi-rural areas return to Hawkesbury; then this seat is certainly competitive either for a good Independent or an exceptional Lab candidate.

Further to your comment common wombat and a rebuttal of Ben – the rail line suburbs covered by Drummoyne are at the very edge of the district and have different demographics (more diverse) compared to other suburbs. Unlike Epping and Ryde where the rail line suburbs are actually quite similar to others that are further away.

Wahroonga is nothing close to the Eastern part of the Lower North Shore, the lifestyle is completely different. None of the Upper North Shore resembles the Lower North Shore in the slightest except for border area between the two areas. It has even less parallels with the Eastern Suburbs. Wahroonga in reality, is a seat which could be seen as one which a mix of the conservatism found in places like The Hills and the more moderate liberalism along the rail corridor. Even in the most Teal parts of Bradfield, the teal could not win and Optional Preferential Voting makes it much harder, given the teals only just cracked 20% in most of their seats in Victoria and lost with Full Preferential Voting which a much more right wing Liberal Party compared to the one in NSW. The areas of Wahroonga along the Northern Line are not super solid Liberal like the Hills or the parts not near rail but would be more Labor than Teal really, the demographic is essentially similar to Epping but more conservative and less multicultural – it is still quite solidly Liberal. The only place a teal could do well is maybe the North Shore Line and really I don’t think they would.

Drummoyne and Ryde are pretty similar really, high density housing near the rail line with a reasonably high Asian population combined with much more Liberal waterfront suburbs and larger, Liberal leaning communities toward the middle of the seat. Both areas swung to Labor in 2022 by a similar amount. I’d say the rail line suburbs in Ryde and Drummoyne are reasonably similar, while the waterfront in both areas are somewhat similar and the parts furthest from the rail line and waterfront have somewhat of a resemblance. A teal could do well along the waterfront but would not get the support in the areas with a high Asian population to win.

I actually think Epping is the most likely of the mentioned seats to fall to Labor. On the federal level, the areas contained in Ryde and Drummoyne are seats that would be Liberal trending if the Liberals had a less aggressive stance on China and had better relations like they did in the period between 2010 to 2019. Both areas have waterfronts which lean Liberal. Epping on the other hand on the current boundaries does not really strike me as a particularly Liberal seat – the most Liberal areas are along the rail line, which is not exceptionally strong for the Liberals when compared with areas to the east. Furthermore, instead of extending east from the Northern Line like Drummoyne, Ryde and Wahroonga, it extends west far into Parramatta LGA into Liberal leaning suburbs which do not seem exceptionally safe, such as the area around Carlingford especially given the loss of Geoff Lee’s personal vote. Epping on a federal level would have a margin of around 0.4%, remember Labor has never won Epping, while the NSW Liberals have less of an issue with relations in China, I don’t believe the local MP Dominic Perrottet is particularly active locally and while the margin is slightly higher than Ryde’s, a lot of that may be inflated in the west of the seat. None of this seat is teal territory.

Hornsby’s CBD is Liberal leaning but has potential to be competitive in good years for Labor. The thing with Hornsby now is that it includes Cherrybrook which is rock solid Liberal and more similar to The Hills than the rest of Hornsby, although it is a bit less of a bible belt area than parts of The Hills. I think the boundaries are completely nonsensical because Cherrybrook has little community of interest with Hornsby or Wiseman’s Ferry. The rural parts of Hornsby are extremely strongly Liberal although it is not densely populated. A teal running in Hornsby is a non-starter, given Cherrybrook is a rock-solid Liberal stronghold and so are the rural areas, while Hornsby’s CBD is more multicultural and more likely to vote for Labor than a teal. Even without Kean it would be a comfortable Liberal seat on current boundaries.

In reality, I don’t think a teal could win any of the Northern Line seats, the demographic just isn’t right for them. However, Labor could maybe win Epping, Ryde and Drummoyne in a really good year on boundaries, while Wahroonga and Hornsby are non-starters. In 2023, I think Perrottet would hold Epping, Jordan Lane would win Ryde with a swing against the Liberals and the Liberals start off favoured in Drummoyne but there could be a big swing against the Liberals – them not preselecting a candidate doesn’t help.

I think the claim that most East Asians (Chinese and to a smaller extent Koreans) are similar economically is a total myth. While it is true that wealthier Northern Sydney tends to have a large concentration of East Asians due to education (Sounds a bit like Melbourne’s Eastern Suburbs), there is still a large Chinese population in Working class Auburn/Berala and Campsie and notably, in lower middle-class Hurstville which is in Sydney’s Southern Suburbs, therefore, incomes/education can still play a factor regardless of ethnicity.

Although I have to point out that Chinese society doesn’t tend to stick with the western style left/right divide. For example, ironically Chinese who are socially Progressives/Liberals have a more positive view of US/Western Imperialism and colonialism which would be in disagreement with Western Progressives since it is associated with democracy, westernization, and liberalism, and conversely, Chinese Social Conservatives don’t tend to like America’s Neo-conservative foreign policies since it is viewed against Asian Values and as imperialism.

Agree Ben that suburbs such as Rhodes do have higher proportions of ethnic voters (mainly Asians). But I though other waterfront suburbs like Breakfast Point and Chiswick have voters who are considered ethnically white or of European background. Hence, they are different demographically and this is backed up in polling place results. Fiona Martin as Liberal candidate actually won booths in those suburbs, whilst still losing Rhodes and Concord West by margins of 5% or more.

@Marh The Asian population along the Northern Line are reasonably similar economically, especially around Rhodes and Eastwood.

@Yoh An The waterfront suburbs are more similar to the Ryde council parts of Lane Cove. The eastern part of Drummoyne is similar to the Liberal heartland to the north, while the western part more resembles the parts of Ryde with a higher Asian population, which leans Liberal but can swing heavily to Labor such as in the 2022 federal election. I think Drummoyne is very similar to Ryde as both are naturally Liberal leaning seats and could be safe Liberal in normal circumstances, but are in reach for Labor in some circumstances, such as a government which is aggressive toward China or one which is too socially conservative.

Mark, I shall address your points as follows. The Upper North Shore is certainly far from monolithic in its demographics. I would agree that the Lower North Shore along the railway/highway corridor is certainly very different but there are some parallels with the eastern parts of Willoughby electorate and parts of North Shore.

Agree that there are some similar demographics with the northern end of Drummoyne and the southern end of Ryde. 100% agree these are non-starters for Teals both demographically and the reality that Lab is NOT going to vacate the field.

You are WRONG with regards to Cherrybrook and Hornsby ! Hornsby’s southwestern boundary is Boundary Road Pennant Hills with Cherrybrook being entirely in Epping. Perrotet is certainly not the most ideal fit for Epping but whilst I could see some parts swinging quite heavily; there is the large counterbalance of Cherrybrook. The swing elsewhere would need to be monumental to neutralise this safety net.

I grew up in the Hornsby area and moved back some years ago and live in Hornsby so I DO know the electoral patterns of this area and surrounding suburbs; be they local govt/state or federal. Completely agree that on current boundaries, Hornsby is “unlosable”; move the western boundary back to Galston gorge and I can see it becoming competitive as the demographics of the corridor north of Hornsby are changing with the growth of medium density development as are the voting patterns which I see as being increasingly marginal.

Its most certainly NOT prime Teal turf and most certainly won’t be a realistic target however going forward; a Hornsby on more traditional borders would not necessarily be out of reach for an Independent with a suitable profile. Under most circumstances, I’d see it as being Lib v Lab but on occaisions an Independent has gained some traction. Kean is unassailable but this seat, whilst remaining Lib, has at various points delivered some savage whackings to arrogant sitting MPs (Pickard during Wran era and the egregious O’Doherty in 1999).

Any way, I do respect your viewpoints and agree with a large percentage of them.

@commonwombat Cherrybrook got moved out of Epping in the latest redistribution. Into Epping comes in Carlingford, Telopea and Oatlands, areas that were in the old Parramatta with hugely inflated Lib margins due to Geoff Lee’s huge personal vote and are likely to viciously swing to Labor. Add to that a possible large swing against the Libs in Epping proper and you can see why Perrottet might be sweating a bit.

@commonwombat Are you aware there has been a redistribution? Hornsby and Epping have been significantly redrawn.

OK, you are right. I was looking at the current maps on NSWEC site.

I’m probably a little less bullish with regards to your Epping calls. Will certainly grant you those old Parramatta margins are inflated and likely to see a recalibration to real world status but I’m not sure those 3 booths will necessarily see uniform swings.

I can agree that Epping should see a strong swing to Lab but I’m not yet convinced that we’ll be seeing a landslide nor any particular uniformity to the swing across the entire electorate. Dom should cop quite a haircut but it still looks a significant ask for him to actually lose.

Continuing the run around of the electorates, I decided to look at Wahroonga.

I currently have the following candidates running in Wahroonga:
LIB – Alister Henskens (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)
IND – Florence Hong (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)
SAP – TBA 8th January Hornsby RSL (Source: SAP Party Website – Events tab)

Parties I’d expect to field a candidate: AJP, ALP, GRN, LDP.
With ALP & GRN to be certain starters, I have AJP in the mix due to their recent campaign against Hornsby Council and LDP due to another source (if it eventuates). As a side note the LDP candidate for 2019 Ku-ring-gai, Mitchell Strahan, also ran in the 2021 Ku-ring-gai Council election under the LDP banner in the Wahroonga Ward.

Wahroonga is interesting in that it takes in parts of Hornsby and old Ku-ring-gai. I actually see 3 distinct areas in this new electorate, Hornsby East (Hornsby, Asquith & Waitara), Northern Line Corridor (Normanhurst, Thornleigh, Westleigh, Pennant Hills) and North-Shore Line Corridor (Nth Wahroonga & Wahroonga, Warrawee, Turramurra, Sth Turramurra, Pymble, Wst Pymble). The latter area can probably be broken down again but I’ll keep that for simplicity. It’ll be hard for a teal here as from previous discussions, but you do have to cross a divide to get known in areas east and west of the electorate which have their own communities, Coups Creek and the M1 really do divide the electorate.

Looking at Fed22 Results, The Northern Line Corridor gave primary votes of 38-40% on day votes to Libs with 44% for the Pennant Hills Pre-poll. ALP ranged 22-26% (pre-poll 25%) and GRN ranged 18-20% (pre-poll 16%). The best of the rest was One Nation while LDP had its strongest on-day booth at Westleigh.

The Hornsby East area is quite small and only the industrial part with very little residential is from Asquith. But for comparison sake, Hornsby had around 35% of LIB, 24% for ALP, 18% for GRN with the best of rest being an IND.

When it comes to the North-Shore Line Fed22, LIB vs IND was pretty close (<5% variance) on the 2PP to the same booths but the key here in LIB won the bigger booths that mattered and had some high vote in smaller booths (2PP 68% Turramurra Valley, 61% Wahroonga Sth). For a teal to run, they'd need to have been campaigning already and hard across the whole electorate, and OPV at state level makes it harder.

While both the ALP and GRN vote is lower on the North-Shore Side, this is improved by adding in the Northern-Line Suburbs. It'll be hard for a teal or independent to attract votes from across both these two sides of the electorate. Alister has already been campaigning to raise profile in the latter suburbs. (Can't find any info on the registered IND, happy for other to provide insight.) Swing against LIB but expect to retain.

2022 Prediction: LIB Retain

Interestingly the recent update had the IND not listed at all (not even to say de-registered), so not sure what is going on there.

Agree with your read on Wahroonga. This seat, despite its differing demographics, isn’t leaving Liberal hands outside the gravest of electoral catastrophes …. and that realistically is not on the cards this time round.

Actually the seat contains nothing of the residential part of Asquith, only the industrial area which splits between Asquith and Hornsby. It DOES contain some residential Hornsby, albeit none of the high/medium density but rather the area east of Sherbrook Rd around Hornsby Hospital with much actually being classified as Waitara or Wahroonga.

Probable liberal retain.. not sure what a teal would do

The ‘Teal’ Candidate has been revealed for Wahroonga and interestingly was also announced on the Voices of Bradfield Facebook Page.

I currently have the following candidates running in Wahroonga:
LIB – Alister Henskens (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)
GRN – Tim Dashwood (Source: NSW Greens Website)
IND – Kristyn Haywood (Source: NSW Greens Website)

As mentioned previously, Florence Hong has disappeared from the register so don’t think this person will be running. SAP did have a Campaign Event Launch in January but nothing on the register or their website as to who their candidate is. Expect ALP and AJP to field candidates. My original intel on the LDP looks like to have fallen through as that party has a split (do a web search to find out more).

I still have this as a LIB Retain but looks like Kristyn has some serious finance and backing behind her. I can see Kristyn doing well on the eastern side of the electorate if she can activate the links to Voices of Bradfield volunteers. The western side will be harder but in her favour will probably be less candidates running with more chance to soak up a protest/minor party/independent vote.

EDIT: oops mistake – Kristyn – Source: NSWEC Candidate Register … obviously my copy and paste went wonky!

EDIT 2: Less candidates in comparison to Fed Election when 10 ran for Berowra (which made up the Western Part of the State seat of Wahroonga) and 9 that ran for Hornsby (Normanhurst, Thornleigh, Westleigh, Pennant Hills) where the western part of Wahroonga gets it’s voters from.