Upper Hunter – NSW 2023

If the swing is on the LNP could lose this.

The Nats got a swing to them in the by-election which improved their margin from 2.56% to 5.82% but this was cut down after the redistribution. My question is how did the margin get so low to 2.56% in the first place for a seat Labor hasn’t held since 1910. Was there another redistribution before 2019 or 2015.

There was a redistribution ahead of the 2015 election, but as far as I can tell the changes to Upper Hunter were relatively minor.

There was a 21% swing towards Labor in 2015 that made this seat the most marginal it had been since 1971. I still have never seen an explanation for why this happened.

In 2019, it was expected that this seat would fall. Sportsbet were paying juicy odds for the Coalition to hold. I sensed that punters had had a bit of amnesia about the swing in 2015 and were relying only on the observation that it was one of the most marginal Coalition seats in the state. I was right, although admittedly I was surprised there wasn’t a larger swing back to the Nationals.

North East, the main reason why the National margin in 2PP terms has fallen is because their first preference vote has slipped compared to elections held pre 2010. The Nationals have lost most of their vote to other conservative third parties like SFF and more recently One Nation, with only 5% or less going to Labor.

Under full preferential voting, the lost vote to minor parties is normally recovered through preferences. But NSW uses optional preferential voting so instead of 70-80% of minor party votes flowing back to the Nationals, only 40-50% will flow instead thus leading to a substantial swing against them in 2PP terms.

Re 2015 result, George Souris retired at that election after holding the seat for 27 years. That would explain a lot of the big swing against the Nats at that time. Make what you will of the calibre of the guy who replaced him, maybe the voters in 2015 saw a bit of what would come to light over the next few years in terms of his suitability for office.

@Nichols, @Yoh An, @Luke Thanks for the info. It seems the removal of a long term incumbent and redistribution has really trimmed the margin here. Although Dave Layzell may be starting to build a personal vote and/or trust with the seat. Am i right in saying the redistribution margin doesn’t take into consideration the by-election, if so then the predicted redistribution margin could be below the actual by-election results.

@ North East I believe there was also a lot of anger towards the state govt’s plans on coal steam gas exploration and coal mining expansion which contributed to the massive 21% swing in 2015.

@Nicholas and @Luke Thanks for the info.

@Dan M That is very likely a big reason, i believe the loss of a long term incumbent and coal mining expansion is also what cost the Libs Ballina in 2015. I’m a bit surprised about the hostility though considering the seat neighbours Cessnock which correct me if i’m wrong is a coal seat. Isn’t it also part of Hunter federally which is also a coal seat.

This is the last election the ALP will have any chance to gain this seat. With the areas around Muswellbrook & Singleton trending further to the Nationals, Labor needs to sink resources into this seat & run a strong, localised campaign. If Labor can promise state funding for projects such as the Muswellbrook bypass & promise to protect jobs in farming, mining & surrounding sectors, they can secure their position in this area. This is not a useless exercise, if they put resources here early they can hold Hunter in 2025 (which I feel is one of Labor’s most vulnerable seats).

The Upper Hunter by election was a bad result for Labor.. I don’t know if the sitting nat mp will build up a personal vote but on a rerun of 2019.. this is a highly marginal seat.. key areas Singleton and Dungog. Given the circumstances causing the by election the nats should not have won here.. but back then Gladys was popular

Well the Coalition brand is nosediving statewide, so I can get this seat if they want a majority. This is going to be one of 5-10 seats where the margin will be less than 1%.

Labor may have a shot at this. The by-election was during a very different time.
– It was before the 15-week long lockdown of 2021.
– Gladys had personal popularity and she hadn’t been called by ICAC.
– There was a different premier, deputy premier and opposition leader.
– There were swings to Labor at the federal election in the Hunter parts and Lyne Parts of this state electorate.

George Souris always got over 60% 2PP and since he retired, the Nats have turned this marginal.

It may also be tough for Labor despite the slim margin. Dave Layzell can build up his personal following. The OPV may split votes and not all ex-Labor voters will direct their preferences to Labor.

This is difficult to assess if it were an urban seat I would say probable alp win. But there is the small swing in the by-election abot

About 3% and the boundary changes of about 1.5%. The question is does the np member build a personal vote.. I think you would need to be on the ground to see. The Gladys based swing factors do not exist.. this seat is uncertain but I am very unsure.. advantage national party?

I guess there is a margin here of maybe 1.5 to 2%. In similar circumstances I would expect Labor to retain Bega.

Sue Gilroy, prev SFF candidate, withdrawing here out of Borsak opposition

This is a seat Labor should win and are likely to win. Takes in safe Labor territory around Branxton/Greta and has a strong candidate. Layzell has done very little to build a personal vote and issues around the Singleton by-pass are likely to hinder.

Likely loss due to unfavourable redistribution

The interesting dynamic in this seat is the number of candidates. The by-election had 13 candidates, including PHON and three well known INDs. They have now vacated the field, and there is roughly 20% of the vote now up for grabs.

By my count there will only be around 6 or 7 candidates, so I reckon we see swings to both NAT and ALP on primary votes from the by-election. But I’d imagine more of those ‘up for grabs’ votes go to the Nats rather than Labor, but that’s just a guess.

the real margin is higher considering the 3.3% swing at the by election that means its more safe then advertised

Ben that is the question how much of the by-election swing stays. All or some or none. The by-election was a nat own goal and should have been a loss but the by-election was when Gladys was popular pre sept 22 decline .I look at the federal figures here and they are not good either. I think the result is uncertain here

@ people in rural areas that vote national don’t really care whos running the state in Sydney nationals voters only care that their local mp is looking out for them. The fact he got a swing to him means hes got local support they don’t care if Gladys is premier or Dominic it’s about if the local member is acting for them. Originally I thought it was a labor chance but after looking at the by election I’d say liberal hold by 2-3%

Seems like a huge miss for ONP that they didn’t manage to field a candidate in this division. This division arguably encompass the best base of their support outside of Queensland. Particularly in towns like Muswellbrook and Singleton. I did read that ONP are apparently operating under some agreement with SFF to not field candidates in the same divisions. Would argue that SFF is better suited for the divisions much further in the interior which are more animated by Murray-Darling basin policy. The 2021 by-election also suggested that ONP were slightly more favoured here than SFF.

Expecting to see a strengthening in Labor first-preferences in Upper Hunter this election with SFF landing shy of 20%. Interesting enough to be toss-up either-way (ALP vs NAT) on election day.

SFF candidate isn’t great, certainly not as good as Sue Gilroy was. Also the ONP candidate at the by-election is running as an IND. I can’t see SFF or IND getting much above 10%.

@SEQ Observer – I think the 2019 results for ONP in the Hunter Valley are not a great indicator of their natural level of support. Around that time the federal candidate for Hunter had run a very long and targeted campaign in mining communities specifically on the issue of labour hire in the mining sector. He won a lot of support from the multi-generational mining families, which probably boosted their vote in the state election. (of note, after 2019, Pauline went on to support the IR policy of the Coalition which was completely at odds with this 2019 position and the 2022 ONP candidate saw a 10% swing against)

I think ONP support in the Lower Hunter Valley will be about the same as in outer suburban Sydney.

for those interested. there was a huge 21% swing against the Nationals at the 2015 election, in part due to the retirement of George Souris, but also due to environmental concern over coal mining and coal seam gas exploration. Despite the seat’s rural past, Upper Hunter is now also the state’s largest mining electorate, one of the reasons for Labor’s improved performance in the seat. Recent history has shown that the electorate’s two main industries, agriculture and mining, do not always co-exist happily.

SMH reporting that OneNation and SFF have a deal to not run against each other with SFF taking rural seats and ON others
This mean SFF only for Upper Hunter

@Clyde, I also don’t see an ex-ONP IND receiving very much of the vote. These candidates always egregiously over-estimate how much of a personal profile they developed in their previous campaigning efforts and how much of their vote could be attributed to their personal profile. It really is predominantly the strength of the One Nation brand that carries their campaigns.

@Darren, accept your point here but I would still expect just shy of 20% of votes to be spread between SFF and similar candidates that field here including Independents.

This seat is completely bonkers at this stage:
AE Forecast – LAB 2.6%
SportsBet – NAT $1.80
TAB – NAT $1.65

I think the big issue is around who will be finishing 2nd. This is a genuine 3-cornered race that could go anywhere

federal labors live sheep ban will hurt them here the fact the nat increased his margin at the by election is a good sign too

I’m tipping a toss-up with Nats slightly more likely to hold.

I sense that the ex-ONP IND’s and SFF’s PVs will go down. I agree with SEQ Observer that ex-ONP independent candidates don’t do as well without the party’s profile and they over-estimate their personal popularity. This means less exhausted votes. The Greens PV will go up a bit without AJP running.

I’m expecting the combined NAT/ALP PV will go up as there’s less vote-splitting and weaker minor party competition. The PV swings to the NAT/ALP will determine the winner.

If there is a huge swing here as well as Monaro, I am going to attribute friendlyjordies and friendlyjordies only.

ABC have just called Upper Hunter for the NATS