Tweed – NSW 2023

This division is one of the reasons why Coalition should consider operating with a separate brand in NSW’s coastal divisions, maybe analogous to their Queensland LNP party. The Nationals brand is eventually going to start hurting them in an increasingly urban division like this. I expect this division to have similar results to Currumbin and Burleigh at the Queensland 2020 State Election. Nationals to hold on with a reduced margin.

@ SEQ Observer, i actually think the Nats have remained strong despite the increased urbanisation of the seat. They are winning booths in the Urban areas including booths walking distance to Coolongatta. Many of suggested that maybe its time the Libs contest the Federal seat of Richmond. However, i feel that the strongest part for the Coalition remains the Urban part of Tweed heads, i dont see how the Libs can do any better in the very left wing Byron Shire than the Nats currently do. We should also look at the state seat of Monaro, where the Nats of won booths in Queanbyean which is basically a suburb of Canberra. There is an argument now that the Libs dont hold seats at a state level maybe it is the Nats that should run in Eden Monaro instead of the Libs. If the Nats can win despite increased urbanisation then that is a good sign. Tweed and Monaro are marginal seats and Labor has held them in the past

All fair points, I agree with your assessment too. I think that the most embattled of the Coalition brands is the Liberal Party. Whereas the Nationals Party are holding steady in most of the divisions that they contest. I mainly float the idea of a LNP-style political brand because I don’t expect swapping out Nationals candidates with Liberal party candidates will work particularly well. This is assuming that the Nationals decline in the in their urban seats to begin with as you rightly mentioned.

Monaro will be difficult for the Nats now because the swing is roughly where govt will be decided the 6% margin seats. Also the ex member and his failed posting to New York is a very big problem

If Labor can’t pick it up in the by-election, I doubt they can in the general election especially since the Nats still hold it by quite a large margin so even though it’s very possible there will be a further swing to Labor than the by-election, it would be unlikely to be enough to flip.

Most of Tweed swung roughly 5 points to the ALP on 2pp at the federal election, and Perrottet’s government is much less popular than Berejiklian’s was at the last election. So Tweed seems winnable enough to me, at least as things stand now.

Next election the lnp will at best be in minority. The 5 to 6% seats will determine if Labor wins majority government

There isn’t a doubt that there will be a swing against the Libs especially since Perrottet is less popular than Berejiklian. The problem is that most NSW seats tend to be quite safe with very few marginal seats possibly due to the influence of OPV so for Labor to get into government there needs to be very large swings to Labor and they will need to pick up the seats with 6+% Lib margins.

I had expected Tweed to experience a post-covid19 demographic shift. But looking at the 2021 census, the proportion over 65 has actually increased by 1% since 2016 and the median age is unchanged at 47. So Provest seems to have demographics on his side.

Probable ALP gain based on Richmond federal results. This isn’t Page.

Primary np 47.5
Pref 4 to 5
Take mid Point 4.5
Np about 52 based on full preferential
Now got 55 obviously due to opv bonus
Get 3% drop in primary votes np goes to alp….line ball

Geoff Provest has incumbency on his side and has been outspoken on flood recovery, especially against Scott Morrison. His history of working with Green and Labor MPs south of Tweed may help shore up his personal vote.

Labor got below 30% of the primary vote for the first time this century but scored a 2PP swing.The Greens had a strong candidate and fielded resources here and got quite a big swing. This helped Labor increase its primary vote. The Nationals had a shocking result in Richmond at the federal election. They probably had a dud candidate.

For this election we need to measure opv bonus which will be relevant. Here I get a just under 2.5 % bonus

dont think labor has a candadate in tweed yet last time they ran justine elliots husband craig who got a swing towards labor but the greens could also posibly winn the seat of the nats

If the local Greens can capitalise off a good candidate and a core of talented and young volunteers (with help from a revitalised Gold Coast), they should pick up a PV swing big enough to catapult Labor into victory on preferences.

The Greens should try here. They have done ok in the past in council elections (and for quite a while the mayor was a Green). With Ballina safer for Greens and Lismore a write off, local and QLD volunteers can focus here.

There are lots of polling booths with over 30% Greens primary votes, and some even over 50%. Unfortunately for them, they’re mainly tiny and spread out in three different electorates (Tweed, Lismore, Ballina).

On paper, Lismore looks like an easier target for the Greens as Labor’s 2019 primary vote was 26% and the Green was very close behind. If they can overtake Labor then it’s near certain they’d win.

The nats should have done worse in 2019 based on the composition of the non National vote. There is a relatively high left of centre vote. It must be the case that the sitting mp has at least a couple of per cent.personal vote. Labor could win here with an improvement in the greens party vote and an better flow of green preferences. That is even before Labor gets a swing here based on the state wide swing

Very skeptical about the suggestions that the Greens should focus a lot of energy on this seat, or the prospects that Labor can win off improved Greens votes here.

The Greens should really sandbag their position in Ballina to fight off tactical votes from older National party voters that would rather at least have Labor than the Greens. I think this is already a phenomena in the division of Lismore amongst punters in towns like Casino and Kyogle.

@Votante laid it out well, the booths within Tweed that the Greens do well in are very small. Majority of Tweed encompasses Tweed Heads which is an urban sprawl extending out of the Gold Coast sharing very similar demographics and political attitudes. Expect the parties to perform in the Tweed portion of the division similarly to Currumbin and Burleigh in Queensland’s 2020 State Election (Slight LNP margin over Labor). Kingscliff and Casuarina will be the key booths to watch after significant population change since Covid.

Looking at Richmond, Greens best performing and most populous booths are located within the bounds of the Ballina and Lismore state divisions.

I have no opinion on what the greens should do they are not the party I support. However I suspect a swing away from the
Coalition overall . This swing must go to Labor or greens. I suspect there will be an increase in the green vote anyway. My sums reflect that an increased green vote and a increased green flow to Labor could shift this seat by itself. Also opv means Labor needs effectively 3% to win

Yeah I want to temper my previous post by saying that I am a lot less skeptical about Labor picking this up than my skepticism with the notion that the Greens should be directing a lot of energy in Tweed. I also want to clear up that I think Labor won’t need an improvement to Greens votes to bump them up because the bump in Labor vote is all that will be required. I do expect Labor to receive a bump here and I also think that Albanese’s and Elliot’s win Federally will play a factor in improving their prospects.

@Mick I recognise what you are saying clearly now, apologies for talking past you a bit.

An improvement in the greens. Flow of preferences could help even without a increase in their votes. Also a increase in the relative greens share of the pool of left of centre votes has a similar effect. Alp and greens both need to advocate a 1 alp 2 greens and 1 greens 2 alp.. which should Easy do

Greens candidate has been replaced here. Rachel Cavanagh has had a cancer recurrence, the new candidate is Ciara Denham, from the Wilderness Society.

Self-correction: I imply Casino is part of the Lismore electorate in a comment here but upon further inspection, it’s a part of Clarence.

Although my suggestion that National party voters might tactically preference Labor over the Greens now extends to Tenterfield.

Clarification: this is not a suggestion TO National Party voters. It is an assessment that National party voters likely perform this tactical preferencing. I do not make any partisan comments or suggestions.

Been really thinking about this division. Would love to see polling here to read the current temperature of this region. I currently expect a really slim margin in Tweed that could edge in either direction on 2CP.

Hard to tell how much bearing the current state polling has on Northern NSW. Northern NSW feels so disparate from the rest of NSW.

Thought out of left-field: Given the growth of this seat around Tweed itself and down to Kingscliffe, would it be more appropriate for the Liberal Party or the National Party to run here these days?

labors candadate is the husband of federal local mp Justine elliott craig he did not do very well not sure whiy there arechosen him again maybi they hope his wifes popularity in the federal seat richmond will translate to him

@ Hawkeye_au This question comes up a lot and I don’t think there’s an objective answer to it. A lot of variables go into deciding whether a Liberal or a National should run in X place, and sometimes it is entirely arbitrary.

I’m of the opinion that the Nationals are still fine here. If the two parties weren’t merged in Queensland they would still hold seats on both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. Their success declined in both in the aftermath of the end of National rule but they were still present. And obviously the Queensland Nationals were a whole different breed than those elsewhere in the country (evidenced by winning in purely metropolitan areas, which can’t be refuted by “but the Bjelkemander…”), but I think they still fit well in Tweed given its close ties to the Gold Coast and Queensland as a whole.

It is interesting that the urban north parts of the electorate are also the strongest for the Nationals.

I’d guess Nats hold this unless there’s a big statewide swing to Labor. Tweed Hospital being built, no major local issues and Craig Elliott has entered the field very late compared to 2019. Local MP should be OK, but it will still be close.

@clyde stateside swings are usually better vs Liberals and they don’t normally effect the nats in the same way. In Victoria the libs went backward and the nats gained ground. Should be safe on this margin.

I have a time share here. Clyde is right about the new Kingscliffe hospital. Any non urban seat would envy the array of specialism there. Labor could win if green and animal justice would exhaust preferences less. In a federal voting system Labor would win as this seat is actually better than Richmond.I suspect wife and husband team is still a bad look here?

Nationals being seperate from Liberals isnt always a bad thing when the Libs go down the toilet it doesnt effect the national party vote look at the vic election. the victorian liberals tripped and fell and the nationals didnt fall over with them. when the liberal party is in disfavour they dont get smeared with the same mud.

A better parallel is the federal election. While the Libs lost seats in the city, the Nats held all their seats in the bush and some with increased margins. Broadly speaking I expect the same to occur in the State election.

A better parallel is previous NSW State elections. NSW National Party (nee National Country Party, nee Country Party, nee Progressive Party) is an anti-government protest party. It is hard to campaign against the government when you are part of the government. From what I can determine, the last time they gained a seat at a general election, while in government, was Burrendong in 1973.

Watson, but I would say in recent times the Nationals often run a distinct brand compared to the Liberals which is probably why they don’t get tarnished with the same brush when the Coalition is in decline. They may not be able to gain/net any seats at this election, but just holding their own (not losing any ground) would be a considerable achievement compared to cycles where they lost seats to independents or Labor.

The nationals seats tend to be safer. Monaro Tweed and upper Hunter are the seats at risk.. to a lesser extent port Macquarie… although probably coalition held. I think of the 3 seats at risk they will probably retain at least one.. the liberals have potential troubles in 20 seats

Regional seats are harder to shift regardless of who holds them. Unlike the city, regional MPs are widely known in their community. They are on local news bulletins every night. On the front page of local papers. People tend to vote for an MP rather than a party. So you rarely see statewide broad swings that wipe out 5-10 seats on either side as good local MPs tend to be insulated from broader trends.

Yoh An,
Coalition Governments in NSW cut services in the bush. Hospital services in rural hospitals were cut just after the 2015 election – the Nats had made no mention of it during the election campaign. This was one of the main issues in the by-elections in Orange, Cootamundra, Wagga, and Murray.
As for branding, here is a newspaper article from 2019 about Paul Toole’s lack of Nationals branding.
https://www.westernadvocate.com.au/story/5916297/spot-the-nats-party-listed-in-small-print-on-toole-campaign-material/

Suprised labor is running Craig elliott again he is the husband of the local federal mp but that did not seem to help him last time plus the nats mp brands him self as tweed mp not nationals

this is the most urban of the nat party seats. I did some sums if there is a 3% shift on primary votes away from the nats… then will go down the the wire

This’ll remain a National hold for as long as Geoff Provest is the local member. After he retires, it could come ino play. If federal election results were replicated here, it would be a Labor gain. Since Byron LGA is growing faster than Tweed, the next redistribution could see Tweed expanding geographically to the south, taking in “Green” towns and villages that have a Greens PV of >30%.

It’s ironic how Nationals PV is strongest in northern part, and most urban part, of the electorate. Also, like some others above have pointed out, a Liberal candidate is probably more suited here.

@Mick if a few people shift in Kogarah mins loses his seat

@ Vicente but because of love they have designated national and liberal seats. They should have fpv and allow a contest when the seat is vacant

@votante the that Byron is grown g faster is likely to cause ballina to shed territory in the south. It will depend on how numbers fall as twee d can always gain territory from lismore

Yeah Tweed, is more likely to gain territory from Lismore. The town Murwillumbah is part of the Tweed Shire and currently sits in the division of Lismore. Murwillumbah is more fitting in the division of Tweed with overlapping communities of interest and shared geography (Tweed River).

@seq exactly and any redistribution wont happen until at least the 2031 election as they only just did one and they happen only every 2 elections

even then given the changin demographics the coalition will need to have serious discussions about running liberal candidates in tweed, ballina and lismore given the change