NAT 5.0%
Incumbent MP
Geoff Provest, since 2007.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Northern NSW. Tweed covers the eastern half of the Tweed shire, covering most of the shire’s population centres including Tweed Heads and Banora Point.
History
The current electoral district of Tweed has existed since 1999. It was held by the ALP from 1999 to 2007 and by the Nationals since 2007.
Tweed replaced the district of Murwillumbah, which had taken up the northeastern corner of NSW from its creation in 1988 until 1999. It was held by Don Beck of the Nationals for its entire existence.
Beck had previously held the seat of Byron from 1984 to 1988. Byron had been a solid Country/National seat from 1927 until its abolition in 1988, when it was split into Ballina and Murwillumbah.
After Murwillumbah was replaced by Tweed at the 1999 election, Beck ran for the seat as the National Party candidate. He lost to the ALP candidate, Neville Newell.
A former teacher, Newell had won the federal seat of Richmond off National Party leader Charles Blunt at the 1990 election. He was re-elected in 1993 and lost his federal seat in 1996.
Newell won Tweed in 1999 with a 2.6% margin. This was increased in 2003 to 3.8%.
In 2007, Newell lost Tweed to Nationals candidate Geoff Provest. Provest has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Tweed is a marginal seat and if there’s a swing back to Labor it could come into play.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Geoff Provest | Nationals | 22,185 | 47.5 | +0.5 |
| Craig Elliot | Labor | 14,449 | 31.0 | -4.9 |
| Bill Fenelon | Greens | 6,461 | 13.8 | +0.6 |
| Susie Hearder | Animal Justice | 1,790 | 3.8 | +3.8 |
| Ronald Mcdonald | Sustainable Australia | 1,776 | 3.8 | +3.8 |
| Informal | 1,937 | 4.0 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Geoff Provest | Nationals | 23,243 | 55.0 | +1.8 |
| Craig Elliot | Labor | 19,040 | 45.0 | -1.8 |
Booths in Tweed have been split into four areas. The urban area in the north-eastern corner of the seat has been split between Tweed Heads in the north and Banora Point in the south. The remaining rural parts of the seat have been split into “West” and “South”.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 50.3% in the south to 56.4% in Banora Point.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.9% in Banora Point to 20.5% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | NAT 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 20.5 | 50.3 | 9,400 | 20.1 |
| Banora Point | 10.9 | 56.4 | 6,670 | 14.3 |
| Tweed Heads | 14.1 | 52.8 | 5,424 | 11.6 |
| West | 17.2 | 55.7 | 3,531 | 7.6 |
| Pre-poll | 9.7 | 56.7 | 15,661 | 33.6 |
| Other votes | 15.5 | 57.4 | 5,975 | 12.8 |
Election results in Tweed at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and the Greens.
@Ben, Tweed is below quota in enrolments at the moment, so is Lismore by around the same amount. Both electorates will have to expand geographically at this rate. The next redistribution is ages away but it could take up Murwillumbah and/or expand southwards.
So Is tweed northern garlands etc. Yes agreed I think tweed will be in trouble next redistribution and nats will be done there so might be time for a liberal candidate. However southern expansion will benefit nats in ballina and lismore
@Votante Murwillumbah is the perfect candidate for being included in Tweed when expanded.
Lismore needs to take Casino back from Clarence. And perhaps by discarding Tenterfield to the Northern Tablelands, Lismore might be able to pick up Alstonville from Ballina. (I do not have a clue what Northern Tablelands current enrollment figures look like).
@ seq also under quota. Barton is the worst at -10%
The best thing the Coalition have going for themselves in this division admittedly is tangible service delivery. The much anticipated Tweed Valley Hospital out behind Kingscliff is conveniently making very visible progress.
SEQ Observer,
I can understand a courier delivering a small package to the wrong but how did a hospital get delivered to the wrong address?
Incompetence? Arrogance? Corruption?
1% swing to the ALP this election. Similar margin to 2015. I think the ALP’s opportunity to regain this seat will arise when Provest retires from parliament.
Now that Labor party look like they’ve fallen short of a majority by 1 seat. Do we think Labor regret not putting a bit more emphasis in this corner? Despite some of the division’s profile not being in their favour, like being effectively an outgrowth of the Gold Coast and a huge cohort of retired voters, I still think it was wide open for Labor if they had put some more emphasis here. If Minns had campaigned in Tweed I think it would have woken the division up and made it real that there is an election even on. The Tweed voters were otherwise completely checked out of the Sydney-centric campaign. The collective sleepwalk to the polling booth here would have undoubtedly favoured the status quo and incumbents. Hence there was barely movement on the primary vote.
I think that Labor had an indication in advance of their success in Lismore with Saffin and called it a day and didn’t worry about visiting. They might have even over-estimated Saffin’s profile to rubbing off on the neighbouring Tweed and Ballina.