Strathfield – NSW 2023

ALP 5.2%

Incumbent MP
Jason Yat-Sen Li, since 2022.

Geography
Inner West Sydney. Strathfield covers parts of Burwood, Canada Bay, Canterbury-Bankstown, Inner West and Strathfield local government areas, specifically the suburbs of Belfield, Burwood, Croydon, Enfield and Strathfield.

Redistribution
Strathfield shifted south, losing parts of Homebush north of the M4 to Drummoyne, and gaining Belfield from Canterbury. These changes increased the Labor margin as of the 2019 election from 5.0% to 5.2%.

History
The electoral district of Strathfield has existed since 1988. The seat was held until 1999 by the Liberal Party, and by Labor from 1999 to 2011 and again since 2015.

It was first won in 1988 by Paul Zammit. He had won the seat of Burwood in 1984, holding it for one term before it was abolished. Burwood had been held by conservative candidates for close to a century before the ALP won it in 1978.

Zammit served as a junior minister in the Coalition state government from 1991 to 1995. In 1996, he resigned from Strathfield and won the federal seat of Lowe. He only held it for one term, as he resigned from the Liberal Party in 1998 in protest over aircraft noise. He ran as an independent in Lowe at the 1998 federal election, losing to the ALP’s John Murphy.

The 1996 Strathfield by-election was won by the Liberal Party’s Bruce McCarthy.

Prior to the 1999 election, Strathfield was redrawn to take in parts of the abolished Labor seat of Ashfield, cutting back McCarthy’s margin.

At the 1999 election, McCarthy lost to the ALP’s Paul Whelan, the sitting Member for Ashfield. Whelan had held Ashfield since the 1976 election. He had served as a minister in the Wran Labor government from 1981 to 1984. He served as Minister for Police from 1995 to 2001, and as Leader of the House until 2003, when he retired.

Whelan was succeeded by Strathfield mayor Virginia Judge in 2003. She was re-elected in 2007, and served as a minister in the Labor government from 2008 to 2011.

In 2011, Judge lost to Liberal candidate Charles Casuscelli.

Casuscelli held Strathfield for one term, losing in 2015 to Labor candidate Jodi McKay. McKay had previously represented Newcastle from 2007 until 2011, and had served as a minister from 2008 until 2011. She went straight back to the frontbench after returning to parliament in 2015, and was elected Labor leader after the 2019 election. McKay resigned the Labor leadership in May 2021 and stepped down from Strathfield in October 2021.

The 2022 by-election was won by Labor candidate Jason Yat-Sen Li.

Candidates

  • John-Paul Baladi (Liberal)
  • Jason Yat-Sen Li (Labor)
  • Courtney Buckley (Greens)
  • Maurie Saidi (Animal Justice)
  • Wally Crocker (Sustainable Australia)

    • Assessment
    Jason Yat-Sen Li should be able to hold on to this seat at the general election, although it is quite a close seat.

    2019 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
    Jodi McKay Labor 20,475 44.3 +2.0 44.7
    Philip Madirazza Liberal 17,972 38.9 -3.8 38.6
    Crisetta MacLeod Greens 4,061 8.8 -0.4 8.7
    Vinay Orekondy Keep Sydney Open 1,443 3.1 +3.1 2.8
    Jack Liang Conservatives 1,237 2.7 +2.7 2.4
    Simon Fletcher Animal Justice 1,029 2.2 +2.2 2.0
    Others 0.8
    Informal 1,437 3.0

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
    Jodi McKay Labor 23,519 55.0 +3.2 55.2
    Philip Madirazza Liberal 19,245 45.0 -3.2 44.8

    2022 by-election result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Jason Yat-Sen Li Labor 18,034 41.1 -3.3
    Bridget Sakr Liberal 15,921 36.2 -2.6
    Elizabeth Farrelly Independent 4,328 9.9 +9.9
    Courtney Buckley Greens 2,930 6.7 -2.1
    Ellie Robertson Sustainable Australia 1,795 4.1 +4.1
    Rohan Laxmanalal Animal Justice 920 2.1 -0.1
    Informal 703 1.6

    2022 by-election two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Jason Yat-Sen Li Labor 21,670 55.8 +0.8
    Bridget Sakr Liberal 17,160 44.2 -0.8

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Strathfield have been split into three parts: east, south and west.

    Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas at both elections. The East was the best for Labor at both elections. There were swings to Labor in the east and west in 2022 but a swing to the Liberal Party in the south.

    The Greens came third at the 2019 election, with a primary vote ranging from 6.8% in the west to 10.3% in the east.

    Independent candidate Elizabeth Farrelly came third at the 2022 by-election, with a ranging from 7.6% in the west to 11.2% in the south.

    2019 booth breakdown

    Voter group GRN prim ALP 2PP Total votes % of votes
    South 8.0 55.8 13,265 27.4
    West 6.8 51.6 9,182 19.0
    East 10.3 56.9 8,718 18.0
    Pre-poll 5.9 56.7 6,676 13.8
    Other votes 11.8 55.3 10,604 21.9

    2022 by-election booth breakdown

    Voter group IND prim ALP 2PP Total votes % of votes
    West 7.6 53.3 4,676 10.6
    East 9.8 60.2 3,291 7.5
    South 11.2 52.1 3,168 7.2
    Other votes 10.4 55.9 23,972 54.6
    Pre-poll 9.2 56.5 8,821 20.1

    Election results in Strathfield at the 2019 NSW state election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.

    Election results at the 2022 Strathfield by-election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and independent candidate Elizabeth Farrelly.

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    33 COMMENTS

    1. Labor underperformed here in the by election which would give the Libs a lot of hope on causing an upset win here especially if Elizabeth Farrelly runs again and directs preferences to the Libs out of spite which is something I can see her doing.
      Jason Yat Sen Li had a lot of controversy on not living in the electorate during the by election and has now moved in and there’s also the fact that the area swung very hard to Labor during the federal election which are two things in his favour. At the same time there was a lot of sympathy and sympathetic media coverage towards Bridget Sakr due to the tragic crash which is something the Libs can harness if they run her again in 2023.
      Jason also has a lot of credentials that basically tops any other NSW Labor MP and let alone even a lot of federal Labor MPs so he’s likely to get a senior frontbench position in the future Labor cabinet or shadow cabinet depending on whether Chris Minns becomes premier in 2023. If he does lose his seat in 2023, I can see Albanese or other federal Labor frontbenchers trying to parachute him into the Senate.

    3. Should be an easy Labor win. The Liberal Party had the opportunity to re-entrench themselves into the seat in 2011 and blew the chance. They won’t win this seat again until the next Coalition landslide.

    4. Does anyone know what the federal results for this seat is? I’d presume it would be around 60+% margin for Labor since this area swung very strongly to Labor.

    5. Not exact but fed
      Burwood 61. 65 %
      Homebush flemington 63%
      Enfield 56 %
      Sthfield
      won three 55 45
      Lost 2 45/45
      Certainly over 60% 2pp
      %

    6. My calculation has Strathfield at ALP 9.0% on federal results.

      @Dan M @Mick
      I think you’re forgetting around 40% of Strathfield district overlaps with Watson.

    7. @Nicholas That’s true Watson barely swung especially compared to Reid and I believe in the state by election, the Libs managed to win the Enfield booths by considerable margins, probably a result of the large Lebanese population there and Bridget Sakr being a Lebanese Maronite resonated there.

    8. Actually, even if we remove the Watson booths, the margin hardly moves. It is Strathfield proper that weighs it down. Removing these results in a ~11% margin. If we also exclude all of the Watson booths, the remaining area (Burwood, Croydon, and Homebush) has a ~14% margin.

    9. I agree that south of Liverpool Road and the Hume Highway, where the electorate of Watson lies, there was almost no swing to Labor. Sally Sitou in Reid overperformed with a huge swing at the federal election. The NSW Liberals will focus their resources elsewhere given their performance in Reid and at the Strathfield by-election.

      @ Dan M. I wouldn’t say Jason Yat Sen Li underperformed that much at the by-election. Sure, it could’ve been higher with his profile and political experience. He did score a 0.8% 2PP swing against an independent and a high-profile Liberal, though outside of Burwood, he didn’t get much of a swing.

      Jason Yat Sen Li is perhaps the state version of Andrew Charlton. Both have consulting backgrounds, have overseas postgraduate degrees, have copped criticism for living outside their electorates in the past, have been in political circles forever. Both won seats earlier this year and both are close to Kevin Rudd. A politcal danger for both is that the Liberals might choose to paint both as part of the political establishment and out of touch with ordinary citizens and would field “one of us” candidates.

    10. Elizabeth Farrelly is not contesting this seat, instead contesting the Legislative Council. Given she took a huge chunk of the Labor vote which exhausted, I’d imagine this would be very good news for Labor retaining this seat. I’d expect a pretty hefty swing to Labor here with Jason Yat Sen Li’s new personal vote and the absence of Farrelly. The Libs would also focus their resources on other seats rather than on here unlike in the by-election.

    11. I expect Labor to hold it easily. If Farrelly had been a contestant Labor would still have won. would be different here. Presuming that Greens will have a candidate I will be placing Greens ahead of Labor and Labor ahead of Liberals ( presuming Liberals actually get a candidate that is) I will check out the independents Depending on where they stand one of them could get my #1.

    12. The Libs are certainly going to take their time choosing the candidate. They’re more focused on finding a candidate in Kogarah than here. I’d suspect Bridget Sakr would refuse to contest here just like how Scott Yung refused to contest Kogarah due to the unlikeliness of victory here and a thumping defeat could hamper her chances at future preselections.

    13. Labor will have no problem retaining this seat. The onus falls to the Liberals to minimise the swing away from them as much as possible however to prevent this becoming a very safe labor seat.

    14. Drummoyne and Strathfield seem to be moving in tandem in opposite directions. This election Strathfield will easily be retained and Drummoyne will go close . With the result uncertain

    15. Silly NSW Liberals didn’t recruit Scott Yung for one of their marginal seats. I’ve seen this young man campaign — energetic, articulate, and empathetic. Would be good for diversity too

    16. Why would they recruit Scott Yung to run here if he won’t agree to contest the relatively more winnable Kogarah. This seat will be comfortably Labor held.

    18. Farcical the Libs have not selected anyone yet but most likely will be Madirazza who hopefully retained his campaign corflutes from 2019.

      Laundy could unseat JYL given his power base lies in the Strathfield.
      But that would probably be a step down for someone who quit Federal politics on their own terms and is making a motza in the private sector.

      Even money on Li being the heir apparent to Watson should Labor push Burke or if he pulls the pin. Although if he was proactive enough he could topple Sally in Reid whose numbers are average at best.

      Drummoyne looking more promising for Libs- good candidate who at least learnt from the strategy of the Labor Reid campaign in leaning into cultural advantages and connections in the area.

    19. Less than 3 weeks until election and still no Lib candidate for Strathfield…. The Labor margin isn’t even that large which shows how confident the Libs are at winning this seat. I do agree though that it’s a bit of a waste of talent to stick Jason Yat Sen Li in this seat.

    20. @dan m this election will be about saving the furniture. i highly doubt libs will win any seats being a 3 term govt whose problems keep mounting if they eep labor to 4-5 seats it will eb a vicory because it will force a greens labor independant govt and they should win in 2027

    21. I agree that it’s about sandbagging or saving furniture. There’s no point aiming to pick up Labor seats with margins of 5%. The voters here made their choice just a year ago and that was after the Liberals gave it a real shot.

      If the independent candidate from the by-election doesn’t run, I’d tip Labor to get >46% PV and >58% 2PP.

    22. Elizabeth Farrelly won’t be contesting here. I just realised. So far, it’ll be ALP, Liberal (certainly should be one), Greens and AJP.

    23. Well the Libs finally found a candidate. Unfortunately for them, not exactly the best possible one, pretty obviously a last minute pick, reminds me of another Freya Leach.

    24. There are many other seats where Liberal preselections are left to the last minute. Some don’t even have canidates yet, including seats the Liberals held from 2011 to 2015 e.g. Rockdale, Blue Mountains, Granville.

    26. Do they have a final list of nominated Candidates? Liberals now have zero chance of any gains since they’ve treated the seat as an afterthought.
      The best result for the residents is if they vote strategically and put yet-sen Li last but can’t see that happening. It appears he is totally disengaged with the electorate and only using Strathfield as a political stepping stone.

    27. Nominations were declared this morning. Lists should be up this afternoon and I’ll get to work getting them updated on the website once I’ve had a chance to hunt for candidate websites.

    31. It’s a really bad look but I don’t think it’s earth-shattering. It’s also a last-minute story unlike Fiona Martin’s disasters a week and a bit before polling day. The Libs weren’t nervous about Epping to begin with and probably not Ryde either.

    32. Similar to my post in the Shortland & Gosford threads. In Hindsight this was a seat that during the last period of Coalition the Libs failed to take the opportunity to entrench themselves in. A lot of this seat is demographically very favourable to the Libs especially in the Old Money parts of Strathfield. This is also very much private school territory. If they hung on in 2015 they would have had a chance to get a swing to them in 2019 with the Michael Daley comments and made it all the more difficult for Labor to win government.

    33. @Nimalan random question I’ve had for a while now: is English your first language?

      Anyway yeah Strathfield is a place the Liberals need to campaign in better and improve preselection.

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