South Coast – NSW 2023

LIB 10.6%

Incumbent MP
Shelley Hancock, since 2003.

Geography
South coast of NSW. The seat contains most of Shoalhaven council area, specifically those areas on the south side of the Shoalhaven river. The seat covers Nowra, Milton, Ulladulla, Sussex Inlet and Jervis Bay.

Redistribution
No change.

History
South Coast has existed as a seat since 1927. For most of that time the seat has been held by conservative parties, although it has been held by independents on a number of occasions. It was won by the ALP once only, at the 1999 election.

Henry Bate held the seat from 1927 to 1941, first as a Nationalist and then for the United Australia Party.

In 1941, Bate was defeated by independent candidate Rupert Beale. He died in office in 1942, and was succeeded by his son Jack Beale. The younger Beale was first elected as an independent, but became a member of the Liberal Party in 1948.

Beale became a minister in the Coalition state government in 1965, serving until his retirement in 1973.

He was succeeded in 1973 by John Hatton, the independent Shoalhaven shire president. He was re-elected following 1973 by very safe margins, and was once elected unopposed. He held his seat until the 1995 election. He was a renowned campaigner against corruption, and following the 1991 election he shared the balance of power. In this role he helped establish the Independent Commission Against Corruption, bring down Nick Greiner as Premier, and then establish the Wood Royal Commission into police corruption.

Hatton retired at the 1995 election. He announced in 2010 that he would head an independent team running for the Legislative Council.

The Liberal Party’s Eric Ellis won South Coast in 1995. He held it for one term, losing it in 1999 to ALP candidate Wayne Smith.

In 2003, Smith lost to the Liberal candidate, former Shoalhaven councillor Shelley Hancock. Hancock has been re-elected four times.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Shelley Hancock is not running for re-election.

  • Robert Korten (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Luke Sikora (Liberal)
  • Liza Butler (Labor)
  • Nina Digiglio (Independent)
  • Deanna Buffier (Sustainable Australia)
  • Amanda Findley (Greens)

    • Assessment
    South Coast will likely stay in Liberal hands, but Hancock’s retirement could put the seat in play.

    2019 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Shelley Hancock Liberal 27,143 55.5 +3.0
    Annette Alldrick Labor 15,256 31.2 +0.8
    Kim Stephenson Greens 6,481 13.3 +0.3
    Informal 2,007 3.9

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Shelley Hancock Liberal 27,902 60.6 +0.9
    Annette Alldrick Labor 18,178 39.4 -0.9

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in South Coast have been split into three parts:

    • Central – Currarong, Sussex Inlet, Vincentia and other areas around the Jervis Bay area.
    • North – Nowra and Culburra Beach.
    • South – Milton and Ulladulla.

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58.3% in the north to 60.4% in the south.

    The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 12.7% in the centre to 17.2% in the south.

    Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
    Central 12.7 58.9 13,762 28.2
    North 13.0 58.3 7,135 14.6
    South 17.2 60.4 5,856 12.0
    Pre-poll 10.6 64.0 14,754 30.2
    Other votes 16.7 59.1 7,373 15.1

    Election results in South Coast at the 2019 NSW state election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, and the Greens.

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    109 COMMENTS

    1. While the polls do show Labor leading Libs in NSW overall, for now, I think it will be most likely closer as more election promises are announced.
      For NSW Libs, I say they might not face the same disaster as the Feds and other state’s Libs for various reasons
      – NSW Libs are more moderate and pragmatic and have found a way to make inroads in Western Sydney without costing their wealthy heartlands such as infrastructure delivery and Dom moderating his otherwise more conservative views
      – The Religious and anti-vax right hasn’t taken over the NSW Libs in the same way as the rest of the country such as Fed Libs and Vic Libs
      I say the only reason why they might lose is due to the long duration of governing
      In addition, NSW tends to be a very centrist swing state in Australia’s political context so both parties have to focus on every voter as much as possible (explaining why NSW Labor is more conservative than their federal counterparts and NSW Libs is more centrist than their federal counterparts) unlike Victoria which has a demographic more favorable to Labor

    2. Agree Mathew, I think the Coalition is highly likely to lose their majority, but they do have a path to retain office in minority if they can salvage/retain most of their key marginal seats (those with margins under 5%). If they lose most of their marginals, then Labor will be favoured to win government in minority.

    3. Agreed with Mathew and Yoh An. Currently, my money is on a Hung Parliament, possibly with an increased cross-bench.

    4. Saw Luke Sikora with a blue army in town yesterday. Hard to see him lose this seat, given he is running a well oiled campaign machine. Have not seen any presence from the ALP and Greens.

    5. Daniel T

      ‘the last NSW Liberal leader to fight 2 elections back to back’, is;-
      Barry Robert O’FARRELL – 04.04.2007 – 17.04.2014 – lost one then won one

    8. Yes, that is what Daniel quoted as the last Liberal leader to contest more than one election. Surprisingly Labor also has the same issue, the last ALP leader to contest multiple elections for NSW was Bob Carr – all others since then only led the party to one election and some were ‘dumped’ before a general election (namely Nathan Rees, John Robertson and Jodi McKay).

    9. Not often do you have super stars like Wran. Greiner was the most prepared. Carr was elected leader as the last man standing. He won narrowly in 1995.. but in 1999 had an approx 5% boost which stayed for the first election of Ieema. Since then people have fallen into jobs and left soon after Gladys was popular.. but she ran into integrity issues. As a whole post Gladys the govt has faced issues of integrity. Barilaro is effectively the Eddie Obeid of the coalition. Alp had leader troubles too. Now Minns is leader and labor is ready for Govt

    10. @Mick the idea the Liberals will need close to 48 or 49% on primaries to win does not stack up. Greens will flow to them about 10% and then another 40% will exhaust. So the return rate for Labor is only 0.5 for every Green vote. With Amanda Findley running you’d expect a strong Green vote, quite possibly at the expense of Labor which will not flow back in preferences fully.

    11. The Labor party is not ready to govern. Don’t even know how to spell their own name. Plus Tania Mihailuk’s comments should not go unnoticed.

    12. Hmmm Mick – Bara the Obeid of the govt.

      Remind me how many years in the big house has Baralaro got. Did he have 4 separate sets of criminal convictions. Mate sometimes (like yesterday) your partisan ways get parked and you even make some weird sense, but even for you (a high bar i concede) this is an absolute whopper.

      Time for the blue ones, followed by the red ones.

    13. Agree moderate – the only thing barilaro is guilty of is trying to secure an international trade envoy position ‘unethically’ against the wishes of other senior officials.

      This is compared to Gareth ward and John sidoti, who are both under indictment facing criminal charges.

    14. The Barilaro inquiry shows lots more. He was chosen via a rorted selection. The head of the department amy Brown colluded with Ayres to help him. Referees are supposes to be current supervisors. One was waS Barry Ofarrell who was last in parliament long ago. One was a ex federal mp
      Who never served in the same parliament as Barilaro. The 3rd was a senior public servant who was head of a govt dept Barilaro was minister for. AYRES did not operate at arms length he did his best to help his mate Barilaro. Amy Brown manipulated the process got reports changed. Kept members of the selection committee in the dark. The public service Commissioner said she would not have approved the selection based on what she said she knew now.. read the records of the inquiry the selection was a Rort. Barilaro s first job post politics was working for Coronation property a building developer with links to.the Alemedine crime family. They tried to look clean .Mr Barilaro was too dirty for them..Read the building Commissioner ‘s resignation letter. He was not happy with the minister Eleni and Barilaro.. this matter referred to icac. To suggest Barilaro had done nothing wrong defies belief.. see what come out from the upper house cmtee and the subsequent icac hearings on both issues. I am not making this up it is all there. Public servants and friends and family of those in Queanbeyan know this was a rorted selection this is part of the reason why I think Monaro is at serious risk of a national party loss

    15. Agree Mick about the rorted selection for barilaro, but just because the matter was referred to icac doesn’t necessarily mean it will proceed to a criminal conviction.

      Former premiers o’farell and berejiklian were referred to icac for potential corruption and have not been charged since. I believe only the scandals experienced by John sidoti and Gareth ward will lead to criminal convictions, just like eddie obeid and Ian macdonald.

    16. You Anh. Of course you are right. It is up to icac to make a determination if corrupt conduct has occurred. They make recommendations to the dpp who decides. But the test is not if criminal charges are laid or not. Pre Gladys departure the coalition were travelling well a 3% swing in the upper Hunter.seat.. but since sept it has all turned round. There are 3 effective scandal seats.. Monaro.. Kiama and Drummoyne where the seats would based on 2019 margins be probably be beyond reach now such seats are uncertain based on each “scandal ” I expect labor to win at least 2 of the 3

    17. Not sure if it’ll have the same effects as you hope Mick re the corruption comments. Look at Dan Andrews in Victoria. Someone with his fair share of corruption investigations and has still been able to be reelected several times. He should have resigned long about if he had the same morals and integrity as Gladys and O’Farrell.

    18. Liberal hold. Have seen lots of Blue Shirts in the electorate. Recent polling should be largely ignored as it was an online form – which would be excluding a lot of people that aren’t comfortable filling in online forms. Still yet to see Labor out and about here.

    19. This seat is potentially competitive but 10% is a big ask. Initially I would have said advantage here liberal. Depending on the quality of the candidate and it appears no scandal. Re corruption investigations in vic. I cannot anticipate the ibac. But so far nothing concrete in vic.
      But ahh nsw. The Barilaro upper house inquiry suggests corruption re Ayres Amy Brown Barilaro. Who benefited from a rorted selection. They will get a rerun after the election in icac. The report on Gladys hasn’t come out yet. Barilaro and Eleni are also due a visit to icac re Coronation property and the building Commissioner ‘s resignation letter In nsw you would have to be blind not to see it. This is a large reason for The turn around from Gladys on about 55% to Labor on a similar vote

    20. does any body know if luke sickora is still good friends with Garith ward he thanked him as his closist friend in his first speech and sickora was a long term staffer to out going mp shelley hancock not sure if this would help him or not in south cost

    21. oofcorse hancock is supporting sicckora he has been her chief off staff fore a majority of her time in state politics when a minister and speaker of parliament he is also close to suspended liberal mp garith ward

    22. how is labor going in south vcoast the liberal candadate sickora is a corear staffer and has mostly worked in politics not having a real jobplus is close to garith ward

    27. @aaron they made the announcement here because they wont to win the seat i doubt it i reckon theyll get a 4-5% swing max

    28. Based on federal election figures in Gilmore, South Coast would be a tight win for Labor. Maybe the optimism (or wishful thinking) from the federal results is carrying over along with the vacancy of this seat.

      I’m tipping Liberal holds, 2PP 52% to 55%. I think they can do better in Drummoyne and Kiama, which they are also targeting, despite 2PP margins that even higher.

    30. is luke sickora still good friends hwith garith ward ward discribed him as his closist suporter in his first speech

    31. sickora has mostly been chief of staff for out going mp Shelley hancock a lot of liberals claim used to call labor candadates who were staffers hacks or union bosis but with sickora being mostly a corear staffer ffor 20 years aparty from his community work how come he is not discribed as a corear politician where as labors candadate liza butler is ainvolved in the comunity

    32. notised some of my coments on sikora have caused some offense was just pointing out what Ward said in his first speech and sikora was a long term staffer i know he does some community work but so does liza butler fund raizing for fire fighters

    34. @Aaron yes a couple are but the majority of labor are career politicians and union officials and have no idea how the avg voter has to live

    35. Agreed @Randall Flagg. Aaron needs to read the room. His comments are repetitive and defamatory. Nobody has engaged in them and it’s clear why. Anyone with an internet connection and Google can quickly figure out what he’s saying is simply not true of Luke Sikora.

    36. Sikora is a corear staffer just like a lot of liberal and laborcandadates liza butler labors candadate is a local busines woman and on sholehavin cowncil theni think sickora had worked in resuturants befor politics

    37. Kiama ends at North Nowra.. South Coast begins there. Both seats fall largely within Gilmore the Federal seat. It is not believable that there are not links within the greater liberal party. I will not guess the outcome of Mr Wards case nor do I know the internal workings of the Liberal party in details. BUT take the seat of Eden Monaro..this largely consists of Bega and Monaro seats.. of course there would be links within those 2 seats and the federal member

    39. Attended the Greens NSW campaign launch yesterday, and again Amanda Findley is displayed prominently among the other high-tier candidates. Greens NSW is taking this seat quite seriously. While I no longer believe that the Greens have a chance here, I do think that the Greens primary will advance here based on name recognition for Findley. I still predict a Liberal hold.

    41. yes both seats are in gilmor the liberals could hold on but the greens over all have beenprity quiet the candadate hear would likely have more name recognition then the little known lead upper house candadate

    43. She’s been an MP for about 8 years now and was the party’s Senate candidate in the Leyonhjelm election

    44. well she is noshuebridge she may have been in parliament for a while but does not have a high profile the greens suffer buy not havin a state leader hopefuly butler can winn thissikora is a corear staffer

    45. True, what Faehrmann is most famous for is attempting to split the Greens when Buckingham & Field left.

    46. Greens best chance of a gain.

      The Green campaign seems to be treating it like a 2nd tier seat along with Heffron and Summer Hill (which in my view are much tougher to win this election – they essentially need to go from 3rd to 1st on primaries) and Lismore. But Findley does seem to be getting a decent amount of support from the party regardless, and there also seems to be enough media to suggest she’s a contender.

      I think Findley comes 2nd on primaries, but there need to be strong preference flows from Labor, former Green anti-vaxxer Digiglio and Sustainable Australia. Shooters running will help depress the LNP vote a little, but they’d still benefit from “Just Vote 1” signs (any intel from first day of prepoll to suggest that’s happening?)

      If Perrottet is on the way out, GRN gain, but Libs don’t seem quite down and out enough 1 week out for me to sure about that.

    49. What about that lol, Labor wins South Coast. I’m not surprised, Hancock was really popular here. Greens were overestimated, and most people knew the only way to flip this seat is to vote Labor.

    50. Can’t help but think Findley would have done a lot better if she ran as an independent and got their level of media backing and Climate200 funding. Michael Regan won Wakehurst with very similar credentials.

      The Greens brand seems like more of a liability than an asset when it comes to winning lower house seats outside a few select areas.

      Happy this seat isn’t in the LNP column any more at least.

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