South Coast – NSW 2023

Sea-change style demographic change will be in play here. This is one of the regions that was a recipient of the pandemic migration out of the major capitals. Much like Northern Rivers and South East Queensland but not at the same magnitude. Assuming the momentum of the Greens continues post Federal election, expect a strengthening in their primary vote here.

As for TPP, much like the Federal division of Gilmore, which considerably overlaps this division, this seat is probably a pick up for Labor. This is especially true if there is an absence of a popular, well-known Coalition candidate, just like neighbouring Bega at their recent by-election. Gilmore was only as tight as it was because a figure like Constance kept it competitive and Bega was a steal for Labor in the absence of Constance.

There might be a big swing to Labor because of Shelley Hancock’s retirement. She had a strong personal vote and booths in Nowra and the ones just outside Jervis Bay even though they overwhelmingly vote Labor federally.

I wonder if Andrew Constance will run again over here. I doubt that the rank-and-file would welcome him because his retirement from state politics made them lose Bega and he would be seen as opportunistic.

Don’t think Constance would run here. Seat could be in play based on federal results and earlier comments

Despite the federal swing in this seat to the Liberals, this seat is likely to be extremely close either way. Potentially a Labor gain. However, I would suggest Labor sink as many resources as possible into neighbouring Kiama; a historically ALP seat which swung to them at the federal level, has an extremely controversial incumbent and it seems like the ALP is surging in the area in general, based on council results. Regardless, I feel there is a good chance Labor could sweep the South Coast this cycle.

On federal figures, Labor is favoured here by around 3.3%

Two-term Shoalhaven mayor Amanda Findley has according to my knowledge been preselected here by the Greens following her unsuccessful preselection bid for the Legislative Council ticket. There is currently debate within The Greens NSW over whether this is a possibly winnable seat. A bit optimistic, depends on whether local government support can equate to state votes.

Luke Sikora has won Liberal Preselection 64 votes to 31. I estimate a Liberal Hold with a 5-6% swing against the coalition.

Have to agree with the above sentiment. Sources say Luke Sikora is a very strong candidate with a reputation for being a very capable campaigner and voice on local issues.

Amanda Findley is definitely the confirmed Greens candidate for the seat: https://www.facebook.com/AmandaFindleyGreens

See Boof head comment a
Loss here is not out of
The question

Federal results reflected a very different election. Fiona Phillip’s primary has gone back the last two elections. Labor has done little for the region when compared to the investment the state Liberals have made in the last 10 years. As for Findley… the shocking mismanagement of local roads and council finances will ensure she can’t win.

I’m always hearing about Amanda Findley as if she’s the universally hated bogeywoman of Shoalhaven local politics, and yet she was returned as mayor – by popular vote no less – by the people of Shoalhaven rather handily, particularly for such a traditionally unfriendly area for a party like the Greens. Not only that, but she was also rewarded with a Greens/Labor-majority council unlike in the previous council term.

I’m not sure what will happen at this election, but certainly one interesting data point will be how well Findley does here. The Greens NSW are putting a lot of money in the seat this cycle.

There is a huge element of
Personal vote here esp for
Hancock. Labor could win here

Another uncertain seat

Sorry Mick, but this is a Liberal retain. Luke Sikora has been on the ground campaigning consistently everyday. Party insiders say he has personally already door knocked over 2000 homes.

Don’t see the Labor candidate having the momentum and winning given they haven’t even begun campaigning yet. Greens votes will likely exhaust hampering Labor’s chances further.

Greens will struggle on primaries and will be unable to actually compete with the strong Liberal base.

Agree stew. And don’t forget Sikorsky was Hancocks handpicked replacement. She is campaigning everyday with Him also. Rough guide LP 55/45.

Agree Stew Rockdale, South Coast is a naturally conservative seat and Labor only won it in the 1999 ‘landslide’ election. 2019 will be a close election, and the seat now has a 10% buffer. Combined with a decent (non-controversial) replacement, the Liberals are still favoured to hold on here.

Questìon what was the corresponding vote in Gilmore

I did not claim Labor will.win here but rather the seat is uncertain and labor could win here

Mick, comparing state and federal results is shaky at best, and not an ideal comparison. With Gilmore, Labor has quite a popular incumbent Fiona Phillips who actually polled well in South Coast against Shelley Hancock in 2015. Unless Labor selects a candidate equally as strong as Fiona, then they will not be competitive here.

Candidates are almost everything. Shelly won the seat
By defeating a one term alp members She managed to.hold
The seat untroubled. Now with alp swing this seat is open
Fiona is of course a good candidate but as much as I hate to say it she faced a good liberal candidate. I don’t assume
State and federal results will
Automatically coincide
But the margin here is.10% and Fiona won by I think a couple of percent. This illustrates what.is
Possible. That is my point this
Seat is uncertain

This seat will be retained by the Liberals. I think the chances of it going to Labor are very slim. Especially now that people are sick of Fiona Phillips. Her promising and not getting the funding for the Nowra bypass and crying to the State Gov will be a big mistake that will reflect on Labor in this seat I predict.

The minister is wrong Fiona is not unpopular despite his or her wishes. 10% is a big margin but a alp win is possible. I would say this seat is uncertain not a guaranteed liberal hold

Mick, Fiona isn’t popular. She has just been lucky with the circumstance of the last couple of elections. Look at her results previously in South Coast, Gilmore, and Shoalhaven Council. Interestingly, Fiona Phillips ran for Council with Greg Watson (who publically burnt an Indigenous Flag as Mayor) Source https://pastvtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/LGE2012/data/shoalhaven-city-council/Ward-2-FP.pdf

The NSW Liberals have done an amazing job in delivering funding, major infrastructure and services. Given the very public and clear close association of Luke Sikora with The Hon. Shelly Hancock MP, on top of Labor’s mediocre pick for a candidate, I see this seat being delivered to the Liberals.

Agreed Stew Rockdale, Assistant Minister, Yoh An and Moderate – Sikora has this in the bag at this rate. Labor is sinking recourses into the seat with ministerial visits which doesn’t appear to be garnering the momentum you’d typically hope from this investment. Don’t know enough about Findley and the Greens in South Coast. But I’d be surprised if they top 20% primary in what appears to be a naturally conservative seat.

South Coast was the fiefdom of John Hatton who once elected could not lose. When he retired. Initially the seat was marginal between liberal and Labor. First 3 elections after Hattons retirement

Shelly Hancock entrenched her self and managed to hold the seat till she retired now. Her margin for the endorsed lib is 10% quite a margin. But the contest is more open with a general swing to Labor of an uneven 6% and the loss of Mrs Hancock’s personal vote which insulated against swings. The whole issue of The two alp wins in 2019 and 2022 shows what was possible. I disagree that Mr Constance was a bad candidate.. but .. he failed to win by a small margin.

Stew,Minister and Moderate are reflecting their hopes in their assessment. Looking at 2019 election liberal 55.5% all else 44.5%. Now assume a drop of 7% in primaries.. that means the liberals need to catch up on green preferences this is a hard ask.. looking at the preferences of 2019 the liberals got about 700 out of 6500 it appears approx 3000 votes exhausted. NOW green preferences can be directed to Labor.. a better flow.. less exhausted votes makes this potentially very close. .. the libs need to either win on primary votes or get very close to an absolute majority and pick up the leaks..uncertain result here

Why would the Liberals drop 7% in the primary vote? The potential loss in personal vote from the incumbent can be bridged by her going out campaigning with Sikora and spruiking him everywhere.

Wilson, that is not how it works. Campaigning with an MP does not boost their chances. some people only voted Liberal because of Hancock, solely.

People are once again overestimating the Liberal parties chances. And Fiona is actually a popular MP for Gilmore, just because you say she is “unpopular” doesn’t mean she is.

This will be close. But once again, the coalition are not winning this election. Young people Will deliver this election to Labor, look at what happened in other places like Victoria and the midterms in America, My generation is trending leftwards and unless the conservatives can offset this by gaining Millennials (spoiler they aren’t) then they will be out of power for a very long time until they start putting forward policies that actually benefit young people like myself.

Jeez Mick – hello pot this is kettle. You are the psephological equivalent of the Japanese guy in New Guinea caught in the 70s and still thinking the war was on.

Seats like Kiama, Ryde and Oatley have been transformed since 2011 in a Demographic sense and you fail to accept that. That’s your right, but mate you get it wrong every single time. Without fail.

But it’s worse with South coast – the ALP have held it for one term since 1941. Do you think it’s going to flip with a candidate who no body knows?

Hancock will deliver Sikora and easy win, and you can chalk up another desert of humble pie with lashings of custard…

Hello Daniel T

A first term opposition incumbent declining in their own seat in an election which saw a change in government is not often heard of. Typically such an MP would not be considered “popular”.

Yet when it comes to the Ghost of Gilmore, you still think she is popular.

Strange.

Better yet, you talk about lefty young folk delivering this election, and in particular, South Coast – to Labor/Green. As an older person, I refute that notion as there are thousands of people my age. We are probably the oldest electorate in the country and that is a good thing. We wouldn’t have all this other green nonsense if all the young folk moved to Byron Bay in their loin cloths and lived in a private community of mud brick house. Try making a baby chino out of a eucalyptus leaf!

Agree hugh, not all areas are filled with young voters. Similar places jnterstate such as Hervey Bay in Queensland containing large numbers of retirees are naturally conservative leaning.

These places did swing to Labor in the 2020 covid election but are likely to revert back to normal form by the next election.

Putting aside the “tyre pumping” by the enthusiasts of either side; the reality is that this is a Lib leaning seat under most circumstances. Not a “fortress” by any means but I’m not seeing either the local factors or the liklihood of a landslide election that will see a 10% margin wiped out.

Lib hold. Margin may or may not take a hair cut.

A few comments on here talking about the transformational swing taking place by younger generations. Ok. But South Coast is one the oldest electorates in the State and there’s nothing to suggest a swing is on by older demographics. I don’t think the Liberals are at quite the risk others suggest.

In any case they’re out in force whereas not much is happening on the Labor front. Starting to get the impression this one is not on Labor’s radar…

Commonwombat has it on the money. There is a lot of the usual crowing from the known partisans.
One thing I can tell you from experience is that if a relatively popular MP openly endorses the candidate that takes over from them, the loss in Personal Vote is minimised, especially if the successor is from the area. Sikora should fit the bill on both sides.

Liberal Hold, shave 2-3% off the margin for the natural swing expected at this election

Moderate I offered a bet . If Anne Marie Christie is the alp candidate re Riverstone 2/1.. ie I outlay $10 and get $20 back if she wins. If she is not the Alp candidate then we pick another seat I suggest an even money bet on Parramatta

Look carefully at what I wrote I did not claim Labor will win south Coast . I SAID they could win and the seat was competitive… There is I think a uneven 6% swing labors way. This means in lots of seats Labor will poll more primary votes than the liberals. In any such seats opv favours the party with the highest primary vote. Here the liberals will probably poll the most primary votes but for them to win the need a absolute majority or very close.

Mick – you are just wrong. If you look at 2019 results (and even look more closely at North Shore/manly by election results) candidates are regularly winning under OPV with less than 42% primary. Regularly.

Please engage brain before typing….

Hugh— “We wouldn’t have all this other green nonsense if all the young folk moved to Byron Bay in their loin cloths and lived in a private community of mud brick house. Try making a baby chino out of a eucalyptus leaf!”

Is this really intelligent or constructive?

Moderate you don’t understand.. opv.in 2019 benefited the liberals because the polled more primary votes than Labor. This happened in 2011 2015 and 2019… 2019 was 52/48 2pp this election is no 2019 Labor has a uneven 6% swing their way this means they outpoll the liberals on primary votes for an example run 2019 east Hills with Labor even polling even with rhe liberals 41 % all.. this means the liberals need to catch up from behind. Assume gap of zero… Labor catches up 1.5 % and wins. The north shore is not the place of alp wins.. here teals and inds can win.. already from the federal election Labor and greens voters have chosen to vote tactically. This they can repeat and labor/ gr preferences can be directed as is shown 2019 in Coogee Balina and Lismore. I know exactly what I am saying.. the more the vote fractures under opv the worse it is for the liberals…What of my suggested bet?

Mick – I am still waiting for repayment of 2019 bets. Then we can talk 2023, old son.

You said I a previous post that the Libs needed an “absolute majority” to win.

That’s plain wrong. Accept that you were wrong and we can talk bets – maybe double or nothing??

I said in South Coast the liberals need an absolute majority to win or very close to it.. ie say 48 to 49%. If they fall below those figures they are very likely to lose.. pls read what I said…I don’t accept we made a bet in 2019.. but here I have laid out the bet.”. Alp Riverstone if Anne Marie Christie is the Alp candidate on 2/1 basis .. if she is not the candidate then pick Parramatta even bet. $10″

Coalition is not winning the state election, I am yet to hear from Moderate and Hawkeye and other coalition supporters as to why they think they will. Here are my reasons why they won’t.

– The NSW Coalition has never been in power for 16 years or longer
– The NSW Liberals have elected their most conservative leader since Askin
– Labor have a much better leader who isn’t gaffe prone like Foley and Daley
– The mood of the electorate has shifted since 2019 and the federal election proves younger voters and climate voters even on the north shore are not locks for Liberals, this is why there was a ”teal wave”
– The coalition has a handful of high profile retirements
– NSW voters are sick and tired of the coalition changing premiers every parliamentary term, Nick Greiner is the last NSW Liberal leader to fight 2 elections back to back.

How many more reasons do I need to give? the coalition aren’t winning. It may be close like 1976 and 1995 were when they lost government previous times, but minority or not, Labor will be able to make the next parliament work unless they seriously implode, and I don’t see them doing that this time.

Daniel, whilst on paper the NSW Coalition has a right-wing conservative leader in Dominic Perrottet, I have observed him tone done most of the hardcore Christian views and rhetoric that he used to observe/believe in. Especially as he is the local member for the area of Sydney where I used to live and where my family still lives in, I have noticed that Dom and the NSW Coalition are focusing their efforts more on infrastructure delivery instead of engaging in mudslinging culture wars that Scott Morrison or US Republican figures typically used.

Furthermore Daniel, as you are from Queensland and where I am based now – I feel the culture of NSW politics is markedly different from other states. Here is my take on the general statewide political ‘cultures’:

Victoria and SA are both progressive/left leaning states where the conservative parties will struggle to win power unless they moderate their image substantially.

Queensland and WA are states where voters are ‘pragmatic’ in nature. They will back the Coalition federally because they support a party that can be managerial and focus on the strategic priorities for things like foreign affairs. However, voters in these states also want a party that can deliver on bread-and-butter issues, which is why they are happy to elect Labor at the state government level.

NSW voters are focused more on financial or economic development metrics, which is probably why they will tend to back the Coalition long term at both state and federal levels.

Mick – mate you are just wrong.
Assume there are 5 candidates in SC. If the Libs (hypothetically) get 47% of the primary vote are you seriously saying they lose? If you do, you just don’t understand OPV, and there’s no point bashing my head up against your particular brick wall.

Daniel – I’m afraid a 20 something leftie from Qld never has, and never will understand NSW. It is easily the most entrepreneurial state in Oz, with a union membership of less than 10%.

Perrottet is governing from the centre, and has completely outplayed Minns in both Cashless gaming and stamp duty reform. He now has both SMH and DT rooting for him.

If that’s your definition of “no chance” will you give me 5-1. I’m not taking bets from Mick until he retraces his 2019 chats and looks at the chat, and the promises made and broken.

Daniel young man – when Mick Quinlivan is your main psephologist, and the intellectual driver to your arguments, then you are shovelling you know what up the proverbial…

Moderate the point I have been trying to make is.. a hell of a lot of seats are competitive. Now that Does not mean the liberals will lose but they could.. the loses will not only be to Labor but to other independents as well.. by definition almost Labor cannot win on the North shore. But independents and teals can… exception is Ryde..
Opv.. benefits the party which polls the highest primary vote.this happened in 2011 2015 and 2019 when the liberals won. If I remember correctly no opinion poll since sept has shown the liberals/np with a primary vote higher than Labor.
What that does is gives What I call the opv bonus to Labor. My example of East Hills with an even alp/lib primary vote and the 2019. Other preferences shows a alp win there. There is only 1 seat Port Macquarie where the coalition partners are standing against each other. The ability of parties to direct preferences varies.. 2019 results in Coogee. Balina and Lismore show Labor and the Greens can. This is relevant in the ex sff independent held seats and a lot of the North Shore.. In South Coast I did not say Labor will win. I said the seat was uncertain.

Take the 2019 election and assume a similar distribution of green preferences
6600 votes alp 3000 lib 700 exhaust remainder.
Now assume the liberals poll 47% of the vote
With potentially a greater flow of Green preferences and the 2019 split of the non exhausted preferences.. the liberals are in deep trouble. I have not claimed this on a state wide basis only for South Coast. I am expecting an uneven 6% swing to Labor through out nsw. You are over generalising than claiming I don’t understand.. that is plain wrong

Re our Bet.. I honestly thought We did nor tie down anything specific.. our recollections are different.. pls tell me what specific bets I agreed to for 2019. I tried to remedy the situation for 2023 by laying out specific possible bets for Riverstone is Anne Marie Christie is the candidate on 2/1 basis. If she is not the candidate then I abandone that bet and bet on Parramatta
Magnitude $10

Seriously Daniel T, you are arguably the biggest culprit when it comes to vapid partisan hackery here. I’ve already posted my thoughts in the LC Thread and won’t be doing it again until we get more information in about candidates and we finally come out of the Summer Break.

Take a hint from Yoh An and Moderate.

My main comment was in part misworded. I intended to say there are a hell of a lot of seats which are competitive now that Does not mean the liberals and nationals will lose all those seats .but a possibility or the loss of such seats does exist therefore such seats are uncertain