LIB 10.6%
Incumbent MP
Shelley Hancock, since 2003.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
South coast of NSW. The seat contains most of Shoalhaven council area, specifically those areas on the south side of the Shoalhaven river. The seat covers Nowra, Milton, Ulladulla, Sussex Inlet and Jervis Bay.
History
South Coast has existed as a seat since 1927. For most of that time the seat has been held by conservative parties, although it has been held by independents on a number of occasions. It was won by the ALP once only, at the 1999 election.
Henry Bate held the seat from 1927 to 1941, first as a Nationalist and then for the United Australia Party.
In 1941, Bate was defeated by independent candidate Rupert Beale. He died in office in 1942, and was succeeded by his son Jack Beale. The younger Beale was first elected as an independent, but became a member of the Liberal Party in 1948.
Beale became a minister in the Coalition state government in 1965, serving until his retirement in 1973.
He was succeeded in 1973 by John Hatton, the independent Shoalhaven shire president. He was re-elected following 1973 by very safe margins, and was once elected unopposed. He held his seat until the 1995 election. He was a renowned campaigner against corruption, and following the 1991 election he shared the balance of power. In this role he helped establish the Independent Commission Against Corruption, bring down Nick Greiner as Premier, and then establish the Wood Royal Commission into police corruption.
Hatton retired at the 1995 election. He announced in 2010 that he would head an independent team running for the Legislative Council.
The Liberal Party’s Eric Ellis won South Coast in 1995. He held it for one term, losing it in 1999 to ALP candidate Wayne Smith.
In 2003, Smith lost to the Liberal candidate, former Shoalhaven councillor Shelley Hancock. Hancock has been re-elected four times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Shelley Hancock is not running for re-election.
Assessment
South Coast will likely stay in Liberal hands, but Hancock’s retirement could put the seat in play.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Shelley Hancock | Liberal | 27,143 | 55.5 | +3.0 |
| Annette Alldrick | Labor | 15,256 | 31.2 | +0.8 |
| Kim Stephenson | Greens | 6,481 | 13.3 | +0.3 |
| Informal | 2,007 | 3.9 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Shelley Hancock | Liberal | 27,902 | 60.6 | +0.9 |
| Annette Alldrick | Labor | 18,178 | 39.4 | -0.9 |
Booths in South Coast have been split into three parts:
- Central – Currarong, Sussex Inlet, Vincentia and other areas around the Jervis Bay area.
- North – Nowra and Culburra Beach.
- South – Milton and Ulladulla.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58.3% in the north to 60.4% in the south.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 12.7% in the centre to 17.2% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 12.7 | 58.9 | 13,762 | 28.2 |
| North | 13.0 | 58.3 | 7,135 | 14.6 |
| South | 17.2 | 60.4 | 5,856 | 12.0 |
| Pre-poll | 10.6 | 64.0 | 14,754 | 30.2 |
| Other votes | 16.7 | 59.1 | 7,373 | 15.1 |
Election results in South Coast at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, and the Greens.
This is probably one of maybe two seat results that truly blindsided me. In hindsight though the old member definitely would have had a big personal vote and selecting some staffer for the Liberal candidate was never going to fill her shoes. I did pick that the Greens would come third but not the extent of the Labor 2PP swing.
Should say seat changes above – there’d be a few more seat results that surprised me if I were to count them all up…
so all the people saying labor ran a terible campaign have disapeared as labor has won hear turns out selectingg a corear staffermay not have been a good move
The Liberal fanpeople insisting South Coast was a ‘naturally conservative’ seat and therefore the ALP couldn’t win it even though it would be a 3.3% ALP seat on federal voting figures was very strange. It’s fine to believe that the Liberals were going to win this seat but to not even acknowledge the ALP had a chance here is just silly. Even Ben’s profile prediction acknowledged the ALP’s chances here.
“But it’s worse with South coast – the ALP have held it for one term since 1941. Do you think it’s going to flip with a candidate who no body knows?”
Well it did lmao. And it flipped good.
I think Southeast NSW can now be considered a swing area. This is in line with federal voting patterns, strangely enough. The Liberals’ regional heartlands are disappearing.
There’s too much focus on a seat’s history when trying to assess what might happen. There are always seats that are shifting into and out of the key seat category. Seats that were once safe that are not safe anymore. South Coast is obviously one of those.
The preference flows from Labor to Green were actually very poor – Findley loses to Liberals 59/41 (compared to Labor winning 53/47).
The Greens result here, in what they were describing at times as a winnable seat, was a disaster.
I claimed the seat was naturally marginal but Shelley Hancock made the difference…. seems I over estimated the liberal vote
i do agree that this is a seat where a sitting member can build a personal vote so if Labor wins again in 2027 it would be a first time that a Labor member has been re-elected here, i would also watch to see if this seat votes to the left of the state for the first time. I agree with SP that Liberals regional strongholds in NSW are disappearing it is really only Albury left now while Goulburn (not really a stronghold) is very marginal. SE NSW is now a swing area. Ironically, its afffluent heartland seems to most loyal to State Libs.
Can’t claim any expertise here but I do visit especially to buy great oysters at reasonable prices & for weekends. I am surprised that no one has mentioned the terrible state of the roads since February 2022? Any sitting MP or candidate representing the government was in for hiding. Note Anna Watson from Shellharbour has been appointed Parl. Secretary for Roads so Labor gets it? meanwhile Gareth’s 57% TPP Kangaroos are wondering when their roads will be fixed? Ask Gareth?