Ryde – NSW 2023

Let’s hope the good people of Ryde use their common sense and vote for Jordan
Lane who is already proving to be a strong candidate with his delivery of positive outcomes in his current role as Mayor.
Ryde is doomed if they don’t.

Why Hillary. This seat will
Go down the wire. And it
Swings John Watkins had double digit margins at times

I’d expect this seat to be knife edge on election night but the Libs to ultimately prevail. Dominello has a massive personal vote and the seat has had 20+% swings before (or rather 35% from 2007 to 2011) and double digit Labor margins in the past. But 9% is still a huge buffer and state Labor has stagnated since the federal election. On federal results and swings, this would be a Labor gain but the state Libs aren’t nearly as unpopular as the federal Libs among Chinese voters so the swing won’t be as strong as federally. This is the sort of seat Labor needs to win in order to form a majority government though.

57% not counting the opv bonus. Dominello had a personal vote of maybe up to 3%. Plus the general swing of say 6%… this does suggest a very close result. I would not
Be sure that libs would retain

Labor have announced their replacement candidate, Lyndal Howison, who unsuccessfully contested Bennelong in 2016.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-05/western-sydney-emerging-as-key-battleground-in-nsw/101828438

I’m predicting a liberal retain, and I’d argue that the federal swings are irrelevant given the different context of the state election.

Just like in Bennelong at the federal election, poor choice of candidates for both major parties. Jordan Lane isn’t too bad of a candidate but ideally the Libs (Labor too) would have chosen a local candidate with Chinese heritage, like Craig Chung, in the seat with one of the largest Chinese populations in the state. Don’t think it’s wise for Labor to choose a failed candidate from 2016 especially since this is one of the seats they will need to target. The Libs should be able to retain this but with a significant swing against them and if Labor gets their act together, push the seat into the in doubt category on election night.

This will go down the wire

Sure if that’s Mick’s view, it’s a 6pc lib hold. My general take on the “Mick-o-metre” is to take around 6% of the ALP vote. Works most of the time.

Agree dan m and moderate as both parties have had problems with candidate selection. I think the Liberals are still favoured to retain the seat due to jordan Lane’s local strength.

Labor have wasted this opportunity in my opinion. The preselection seemed rushed and last-minute. They could’ve pulled off an upset in a vacant seat like they did in Bennelong in 2022.

Predicting a Liberal hold. It won’t even be close.

With Labor’s first candidate being ushered off stage in controversy I think they’ve squandered any chance at a potential gain here.

Fun fact about Lyndal Howison – the Labor candidate. She was pranked in a Chasers skit in 2016 during the federal election campaign. A girl deliberately played the recorder really badly to get her reaction and test her patience. She endured much, much longer than when the same prank was pulled on Bill Shorten and Tony Abbott.

howison is aschool tteacher so she would have to have a lot of pashints sheis a high school teacher but no were near ride though wonder how labor will go the liberal mayor seemsokay

Haven’t seen much hype about this seat. The margin is big, though not as big as other seats which are considered in play or even likely ALP gains.

This is a seat where political realignments would benefit Labor, Labor did win the federal seat here, and it’s an open seat. Still not quite seeing a flip, and Perrottet being in the next seat over would have an impact, but one to watch on the night.

I wonder how much of the vote here was for to the member. I am a Labor guy but I think Victor D was a great minister to the point that Labor wants him in Canberra to fix up Services Australia. I reckon Ryde is in play

At the Feds, Labor had the advantage with their candidate having name ID, and trust built in the Asian communities.

It is flipped at the State Election with the Lib candidate – a recent Mayor – having built a positive profile over a few years. Labor’s candidate is a virtual nobody, just like the Libs one at the Fed election.

Libs hold by 2% at least factoring a swing because no Dominello in the election.

@ John
I am not sure if i would say that Labor potentially regaining this seat is any evidence of political realignment. It was held for most of the last Labor government. In fact held by former NSW Labor Deputy Premier John Watkins. The previous incarnation of this seat named Gladesville was one of 4 seats that allowed Carr to win a one seat majority. A previous iteration of this seat named Fuller was held by Labor during the Wran years. It is similar to Whitehorse and northern parts of Monash LGA in Melbourne, not a Liberal heartland but an area that the Libs cannot win without. Furthermore, compared to Bennelong it is more Labor leaning as the best Liberal parts are on the Northern Fringe (state seat of Epping) or Eastern Fringe (state seat of Lane Cove).

I agree with Nimalan. It was a Labor seat during the Carr-era. John Watkins was reelected 3 times with a margin of at least 10% up until 2007.

In 2008, Victor Dominello won with a swing of over 20% and it has been a safe Liberal seat since. His personal vote is worth a huge chunk as the 2PP in Ryde is consistently well above the federal 2PP in the corresponding parts of Bennelong. He’s one of a few MPs who have turned a Carr-Iemma era seat into a solid Liberal seat. Other ones include: Geoff Lee (Parramatta) and Gareth Ward (Kiama). No doubt, there’ll be a swing away from Liberals in Ryde but I don’t think it’ll be enough to flip.

I see some long-term realignment here around Macquarie Park and North Ryde. The combined Labor and Greens vote is increasing, though that could be because of the university-educated renters and first-home buyers given the rise of apartments. I sometimes wonder why Australia’s tech sector is nowhere near as progressive as the Silicon Valley.

@Votante the political divide is still very much based on class/income/wealth rather than race/social values/culture war issues like the US though that is changing. Equivalent areas in countries like US are solidly left leaning.

Well this seat is lot closer than what most thought. I think Labor will be able to hold this due to the strong Labor lean in postals for Bennelong at the federal election but it’s very possible the Libs can claw this back albeit very narrowly.

This was never in the bag for the Liberals, Labor definitely can win in this area. Used to be Liberal heartland but now it’s quite competitive. Unless the Federal Liberals change course, this area will be very close.

Tightened up a lot here after Ryde and Eastwood pre-polls swung by a lot less than ordinary votes. Need to wait for the remaining pre-polls to report before there’s any real clue of where this is heading.

Just looking at Bennelong in 2022. More recent data and also had a big swing but it’s with CPV and not OPV.
2.7% of formal votes were absent or provisional. They were more Labor-friendly than prepoll and ordinary votes. At this election, it’s up to whether there’s enough of them and the voting patterns. The other difference is that they may be more absent votes because the prepolling was a week long whilst federal polling was much longer.

The decisive day is set to be tomorrow, according to the ABC. 5000 Postal votes to be counted. So far, these are favouring Lane 55-45 on TPP. If this is repeated with this batch, Lane takes the lead.

Why do I get the feeling much of the counting this week has been on a go slow until the NSW EC can get the same senior staff they had last Saturday back tomorrow to do the majority of the post count??

There re some seats where they still haven’t counted any Absents!

Have the absents been counted in Ryde? Libs have taken the lead by 232 votes.

There are 539 votes to be counted in Ryde Today. 489 Absentees and 40 Enrolment Votes.

Given that the Primary Vote pick-up from Absentees is 41:33 in favour of Lane, that would be 200 – 161, extending Lane’s lead by a further 39 votes. Enrolment vote is 40:35 in favour of Lane, which is 16-14, meaning that Lane would already extend his lead by 41 votes in total to 273.

That leave 128 Absentee votes to be distributed and 10 Enrolment Votes to be distributed. If that is the final addition of votes, Lane wins.

@Hawkeye_au
Thanks for the insight!

Per Antony Green on twitter:

Ryde update – Labor has gained maybe 60 votes with the counting of 473 Absent votes. Liberal lead probably under 100 votes now.

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1643139218498256897?cxt=HHwWgoDQsbuazc0tAAAA

Last batch of votes to be counted Saturday:
Postals – 456 (Lane Leads Posts 51:5:42.1, giving Lane an extra 43-vote gap)
Absent – 29 (Lane Trails Absentees 43.8:47.0, Reducing Lane’s Lead by 1)
Enrolement – 1 (Give the vote To Labor, reducing Lane’s Lead by 1)
NAMAV – 5 (Call this 3:2 Labor, Reducing Lane’s Lead by 1)

With Lane’s Lead currently at 60 (Call it down to 57), Labor to flip the result would need more than a number reversal on Postals. They would need a 12.5-Point Lead in the remaining Postal Votes to flip the result. Given that the current position is an almost-9 point lead on Postals to the Liberal Party, this would require a 22.5-Point Turn-around in those Postals to flip the result.

I don’t see how that happens.

Jordan Lane has got to be the luckiest person in terms of elections. Won preselection 49-47 and now looks to win Ryde by around 60 votes or so after ABC called it.

@Ben theres still aroun 1200 postals to count today but hat will faovur the liberals thats why theyve called it early. barring some freak abnormality

NSW EC announced that Jordan Lane won by 50 votes. They have also decided that they will do a full recount this weekend.

I don’t think the recount is likely to overturn the result, given that the similarly close result in Orange by election 2016 (won by 50 votes) only had the recount change the winning margin by just 5 votes (from 55 to 50).

Waste of time doing the recount, better to work hard to make the elected member a 1-term MP by working hard in government.

The last 1 term government to be defeated in NSW would have to be Jack Lang in the 30s. Been a very long time, I see no reason why that would change in 2027.

If it’s close and if recounts are free, it’s actually worth a shot for the runner-up. I don’t like Labor’s chances in Ryde though.

@Daniel T – 2027 will likely be late into federal Labor’s 2nd term. Federal drag might be quite strong and Labor have fewer opportunities for sophomore surges.

Time will tell whether the Minns government is any good – so far on the most important issue to me, Penny Sharpe seems like she’s to the right of Matt Kean on renewable energy and climate change. Weak Green preferences off a stronger Green vote will be a challenge for Labor in OPV. Any ALP insiders here, please convince Sharpe to be less of a fossil fuel talking point repeating fool.

I am not sure if you can argue that Penny Sharpe is to right of Matt Kean on Renewable energy Minns support legislating target of net zero by 2050 and a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030 something that the NSW Libs agree on principle but did not want to legislate. When the legislation is introduced to parliament it will be a folk in the road for the NSW Libs if they vote no then there will likely be strong Teal challenges in 2027. However, Sky news will argue if they vote yes then it would be hard to try and win seats such as Maitland, Swansea Cessnock and Port Stephens etc from Labor.

@Nimalan – the language around potentially buying and extending Eraring power station in particular is very troubling. “We need coal when the wind doesn’t blow and sun doesn’t shine” could have been said by Craig Kelly, and it ignores energy storage, interconnectors and demand response.

I’ve noticed that Labor Right MPs (like Bowen and Husic) are more willing to actually listen to critics and negotiate. Meanwhile Labor Left MPs (like Plibersek and Collins) are quite belligerent about the idea that they’re totally progressive and the best method for progressive change is Labor majority government. They frequently attack Greens and have shown they’re not good at actually listening to concerns. I think there’s a real lack of imagination in the ALP.

This leads Penny Sharpe, who tried to run for Newtown, using outdated fossil fuel talking points.

NSW Labor is relatively conservative and less green than its interstate counterparts. It has to be pragmatic and careful with net zero or renewables given its support base straddling coal country and taking in large ports in the Hunter, Newcastle and the Illawarra.

There was a 9.5% swing away from Labor in Hunter at the 2019 fed election and there were massive swings away from Labor in regional QLD. Despite the large margins, Labor could risk losing seats to the LNP in the long run, possibly via One Nation or similar-minded independents running and splitting votes and sending preferences to the LNP. The 2019 fed election might’ve scarred Labor and from then onwards, there was a convergence in climate policies between Labor and the LNP.

With the exception of Heffron and possibly Summer Hill, there’s hardly any state Labor seats under threat from the Greens, but for the time being, I doubt NSW Labor is scared of losing to the Greens.

@ Votante, Agree with you. I also feel NSW Labor feel their best option for Majority government goes via Southern and Western Sydney (Holsworthy, Miranda, Oatley and Winston Hills) and longer term Badgerys Creek now that they failed to win Balmain back when it was an open seat and did not make in roads into traditional Liberal Heartland in North Shore, Northern Beaches, Vaucluse their best bet is to appeal to Middle Australia. Penny Sharpe these days would have no interest in Newtown like she did in 2015 and neither does the party. I agree it does not seem that State Labor is worried about the Greens. Actually i think the seat most likely to go from Labor to Greens will be Lismore and that would be when Janelle Saffin retires. While parts of Heffron and Summer Hill are green friendly both seats it also includes classic ALP/Lib suburbia (such as Eastlakes, Mascot, Haberfield, Ashbury etc) so it is not as easy for the Greens to pick up

Agree there aren’t many credible Green targets, and NSW Greens haven’t put the work in to make demographically favourable seats winnable. QLD Greens took small kernels of Green friendly areas to win large federal seats that are mostly traditional suburban areas. NSW Greens can’t even get out of 3rd or above 20% in seats dominated by uni students and renters. I hope the Greens are resisting their normal tendency to treat every election result like a win.

The bigger risk is that there’s a higher Green protest vote from 2023 Labor voters that doesn’t come back as preferences if Sharpe proves to be a regressive dud on climate and environment. Labor will need favourable Green preferences in Ryde.

“The bigger risk is that there’s a higher Green protest vote from 2023 Labor voters that doesn’t come back as preferences if Sharpe proves to be a regressive dud on climate and environment.”

I am unsure how significant a risk this actually is. The Greens got a statewide 10.3% primary vote in the great landslide of 2011 and 9.7% in the 2023 election. Their vote has been stuck at this level for over decade, despite vastly different electoral conditions in each election. I think voters very sensitive to these issues are already voting for the Greens.

@Nimalan, I agree that Heffron and Summer Hill won’t flip so easily. In Summer Hill, the Greens came second on the 2PP. This was because the Liberal primary vote crashed. In Summer Hill, the western parts that are further away from the CBD have more in common with south-western Sydney (e.g. migrant communities, nuclear families, working class population). I do foresee young professionals, students, renters and DINKS moving into both Heffron and Summer Hill as Newtown/Balmain became more expensive to rent in.

I don’t think the Greens’ goal is to grow their primary vote statewide but rather increase their seat count, through concentrating on a select few areas. I agree that the NSW Greens aren’t as coordinated or electorally competitive as the QLD Greens, or the VIC Greens.

@Agree Votante, the ethnic communities such as Italians in Haberfield are more socially conservative, there is higher % of people of faith in the western part of Summer Hill. I do agree there will be further gentrification in much of both seats that will increase the Green vote I guess the Bell Street divide in Melbourne can be seen in both Summer Hill and Heffron

@John

The differences are probably at an individual level tbh. I do have a (non-foolproof) theory though that frontbenchers are more likely to fit your characterisations of Left MPs. I would add Albo, Jackie Trad, Murray Watt, Steven Miles and both Butlers to your list.

On the other hand, I read in Lismore 2023 that Saffin, Phillips and Templeman are non-hostile (Greens perspective) MPs from the Left. If we include former MPs, I would add Melissa Parke to the list.

From the Right, I would say Burns and Elliot are mixed. They do attack the Greens but they have spoken out when they thought the party was going too “right”. Specifically, Burns on Mark Butler’s Mental Health Cut, and Elliot when she resigned from the front bench over coal seam gas (the latter happened well before the Greens were a threat in the area).

Also don’t forget that the Right also had people like Fitzgibbon, Feeney and Danby.

Every seat should be recounted if recounts change margins. Why should this be considered 54 votes when the original count said 50? Might as well recount all the other seats because it isn’t fair if someone’s vote wasn’t counted properly. Why don’t we have technology that double checks ballots considered we humans make mistakes?

I’m not disputing the Liberal victory. I’m disputing the final number of votes however. It could make the difference between calling this a 0.1 or 0.2% seat at the next election. And any redistribution could mean if the seat flips to notionally Labor. Those 4 votes could make a difference, and needless to say it could have been more votes than that possibly.

There should be total election recanvasings after every election to DOUBLE check. Everyone’s vote was counted correctly. We will never find out if our votes were counted correctly and it’s time for reform to fix this.

I’m sure there are people out there who would volunteer to make sure all votes were counted as they should. I would.

My point is, if recounts always change the number of votes each candidate has. It points a fundamental problem in our system. Everyones vote deserves to be counted correctly. Perhaps electronic voting is a solution?

@Daniel T – That argument is a bit Trump-ist, if you ask me. The idea of the Check Count is to also incorporate the final cross-check of results, so your argument is moot.

Going through a full recount of every seat, in the level of detail that you require, of every seat, is also a waste of time and money. The results won’t change that significantly for the vast majority of seats.

In the case of Ryde, given that the result was under 100, fair enough for a full recount. But for the rest of the seats, the simple check count was sufficient to confirm the final results.

No system is perfect, Daniel, I think finding a handful of errors when counting over 50,000 votes is impressive.

“Might as well recount all the other seats because it isn’t fair if someone’s vote wasn’t counted properly.”
The margin is extraordinarily small and the count took over two weeks, barring Easter. A slight shift in the other direction could mean a totally different winner. Hawkeye is right that for most seats, the winner wouldn’t change after recounting. If the margin was 1%, a 4-vote or 40-vote difference wouldn’t mean a different winner. I respect the right to call for a recount when the margin is as small as it is in Ryde.

I agree with Ben Raue, it’s impressive that there was hardly any errors given the hand-counting.