LIB 6.2%
Incumbent MP
Kevin Conolly, since 2011.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
North-western Sydney. Riverstone includes northern parts of the City of Blacktown, including Glenwood, Quakers Hill, Riverstone and Stanhope Gardens.
Redistribution
Riverstone contracted, losing Angus in the north-western corner of the seat to Londonderry, and losing Glenwood in the south-eastern corner to Winston Hills. These changes slightly reduced the Liberal margin from 6.3% to 6.2%.
History
Riverstone was first created for the 1981 election. It was Labor-held continuously until 2011.
The seat was first won in 1981 by Tony Johnson, who had served as Member for Mount Druitt since 1973. Johnson retired in 1983, triggering a by-election.
The 1983 by-election was won by Richard Amery. He held the seat until 1991. In 1991, the redistribution saw the restoration of the seat of Mount Druitt, covering areas previously covered by Riverstone. Amery moved to Mount Druitt, which he has held ever since. He served as a minister in the state Labor government from 1995 to 2003.
Riverstone was won in 1991 by John Aquilina, who had served as Member for Blacktown since 1981. He served as a minister in Labor governments from 1986 to 1988 and again from 1995 to 2003. In 2003 he left the ministry and was elected Speaker. He served as Speaker until the 2007 election, and then sat on the backbench until his retirement in 2011.
At the 2011 election, Riverstone was won by Liberal candidate Kevin Conolly with a 30% swing. Conolly was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Kevin Conolly is not running for re-election.
Assessment
A substantial swing is required for Conolly to lose, but Riverstone has a history of big swings and was Labor-held until just three terms ago. The seat is also changing quickly. It’s not hard to imagine this seat changing hands.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kevin Conolly | Liberal | 28,956 | 54.1 | -1.1 | 54.0 |
| Annemarie Christie | Labor | 21,328 | 39.9 | +8.3 | 40.0 |
| Alex Van Vucht | Greens | 3,226 | 6.0 | +0.6 | 6.0 |
| Informal | 1,612 | 2.9 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kevin Conolly | Liberal | 29,337 | 56.3 | -5.9 | 56.2 |
| Annemarie Christie | Labor | 22,735 | 43.7 | +5.9 | 43.8 |
Booths in Riverstone have been split into three parts: east, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54.5% in the south to 60.3% in the east.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 54.5 | 12,221 | 28.0 |
| East | 60.3 | 8,397 | 19.2 |
| North | 58.6 | 5,551 | 12.7 |
| Pre-poll | 53.9 | 9,220 | 21.1 |
| Other votes | 55.2 | 8,332 | 19.1 |
Election results in Riverstone at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
This would be a key seat despite its 6.2% margin. This would be one to watch because of local demographic changes, suburban sprawl and the federal election result.
It overlaps with the (now safe federal Labor) seat of Greenway. Suburbs common to both (mainly Stanhope Gardens, The Ponds, Riverstone, Schofields) recorded insanely high swings to Labor of over 10% at the federal election. I don’t know what happened here. It could’ve been a very popular Michelle Rowland, a dud Liberal candidate or demographic changes. The federal election results no doubt would’ve put Riverstone on the radar of both sides.
Yes agree..this seat is vulnerable like Camden 6% margin
Yes, definitely a key seat, but Michelle Rowland is a popular federal MP, to the point where the Liberals probably won’t win back Greenway until she retires.
A part of me thinks that the Liberal Party is still massively under-achieving in this area and it is due to the poor branch operation in the area. The best candidate they have had in the area is Yvonne Keane who is already going nuclear against the Liberal Party. These days, the seat is dominated by the Connelly Family and the Diaz Family. Kevin Connelly is holding his seat in spite of poor performances.
The result here was stronger for the Liberals than at the federal level in 2019. I’ve lived in this area and the sense I get is people are not happy with the Liberals over service delivery. IIRC, the Ponds High School is one of the most over-capacity high school in the state.
Connelly just announced he is retiring.
Interesting! If I’m honest, I don’t think it will have much of an impact, in fact it may even be a good think for the Liberals. Conolly is possibly the most ineffective MP in the LA. I lived in Riverstone district and he was only visible two weeks before the election. When the government cut bus lines in the area and people were unhappy, instead of engaging positively with the community, he went off at his own constituents for complaining.
@ Nicholas, just wondering you views on this. I was thinking the State Libs would very popular in this area as the North West Rail Link was delivered. The biggest blemish on the previous state Labor government which led to its downfall and also impacted Federal labor in 2010 (Bennelong in 2010) was it inability to deliver a single completed Rail project in 16 years for example Parramatta to Chatswood rail link was only half completed and costed double what was first announced. i compare the NWRL to Doncaster Rail in my neck of the woods.
Agree Nimalan with your point on infrastructure development favouring the Liberals here. Also in response to Nicholas, that shows that open seat contests can go two ways. Either they produce more savage swings if the incumbent MP was popular and their replacement is seen as weak/controversial or they can be completely fine if it is the reverse situation, an unpopular outgoing MP and a decent replacement.
The Liberals did themselves a huge disfavour soon after the metro opened that, by association, has actually created a negative view of the metro for many in the area.
They cut around half of the Hillsbus bus lines. The 607X bus in particular, ran from Rouse Hill to Baulkham Hills via Old Windsor Road, and then continued directly to the city via the M2 and M1. This line was truncated, and now runs only between Bella Vista and the city.
I remember a few weeks prior, the announcement of the changes at my bus stop had multiple messages scribbled around it by angry commuters. And the reality is, the bus was faster than the metro for many commuters, including myself, despite living only a 10 minute walk to the station. (Once the metro line is extended from Chatswood to the city, it should be faster in most cases.)
Oh, and on the first day that buses were cut – which also happened to be the first day of the semester at Macquarie University – the metro went down! This left many commuters stranded, and was a memorable coincidence.
Kevin Conolly and David Elliot defended the government’s decision and cowered from their constituents. Ray Williams at least attended community events relating to the matter. Dominic Perrottet – whose constituents in Cherrybrook had lost the 621 bus to similar effect – was vocal in his opposition to the changes, and as I understand, bus routes in Cherrybrook were improved some time later.
There are other significant infrastructure and service deficiencies in the area. Schools are ridiculously overcapacity. The government still hasn’t announced when they’ll extend the metro line to Schofields, and yet they’re commencing work on the St Marys to Western Sydney Airport line!
The swings will be quite unpredictable. Riverstone in 2019 was a very different place. There has been massive population growth, particularly in the middle and northern parts of the electorate. Suburbia has grown on the northern reaches and it isn’t semi-rural like it once was.
Here, the election will be a referendum on the growth of public services and the quality of road infrastructure to keep up with strong population growth. Despite the metro, which runs along the edge of the electorate and then into Tallawong, Riverstone is extremely car-dependent.
Nicholas, i appreciate you sharing you first hand experiences of the metro line. I agree the fact that the rail line is currently a shuttle and requires a change to existing North Shore line services at Chatswood is an issue and would just increase capacity issues on that line. Similar to my concern about SRL to Doncaster without a link directly to the city as this would just lead to crowding on the Hurstbridge or Belgrave lines. In terms of the buses keen to know your views once the line is built all the way to the city via the new harbour rail tunnel would do feel that the buses can be redirected to be a feeder service to the stations from residential areas? I am thinking of Doncaster to city rail line was built my bus Route 305 will terminate at a proposed Bulleen station and 908 at the Park and Ride and the remaining part will be done via rail. If you just take NW Sydney to Macquarie University do you feel it is quicker and more comfortable commute now? I agree the metro line should be extended to Schofields and even around Marsden Park with all the new housing and support your call for more schools etc
@Nimalan
The metro line was beneficial for those commuting to Macquarie University. After the metro was opened but before the buses were cut, I would take the bus to the city, but the metro to university. Previously, you would have to take a service to the city, then change at the M2 to a bus to Macquarie Park. The buses (both routes, both directions) would be at their fullest at the M2. I have many not-so-fond memories of rushing to get to a 9am practical and having multiple full buses skip the stop.
Commuting to the city, the metro is generally slower than the former bus routes. As I mentioned, the extension to the city should fix this. Part of the problem is since the metro stations are spaced further apart than the bus stops, there’s a longer walking distance for many commuters.
In terms of “feeder” bus services – that is essentially how bus routes in the area have been organised since the metro opened. However, most of the buses on the western side of Old Windsor Road go to Blacktown. (It’s those on the eastern side that link up with metro stations.) Those who use the metro in Riverstone district would be those within walking distance of a station or those who are willing to drive to a station.
Thanks Nicholas, interesting to see how the new metro worked for NW Sydney residents. I will be interested once the Chatswood to City metro opens whether remaining NW Sydney buses to City will continue. The issue of bus stops being in closer proximity to residents than metro stations will always remain due to the spacing as you have correctly pointed out. Would residents accept this in lieu that rail may offer a more comfortable service not dependent on Road traffic.
@Nicholas, you are very correct in saying that the Metro was largely a negative for the residents of NW Sydney, at least according to said residents. Whilst the Metro has definitely helped residents on the northern fringe access the major centres of Macquarie Park, Chatswood & to a lesser extent the CBD, it has come at the expense of virtually any other form of transportation. As previously mentioned, most of the bus lines have been cut, the roads are in poor condition in one of the most car dependent areas of the city (though I would say it’s not nearly as bad as in other nearby regions), all the while public infrastructure such as schools cannot cope with the increased demand of these new housing estates. Indeed, bad civil planning has crippled areas like this & voters will most likely punish the Liberal Party now that their gloss has waned.
Further analysis shows that the Labor Party would have won this seat on federal figures by slightly higher than 11%, around 0.5-1% more than their 2007 margin. Whilst that was likely due to Michelle Rowland being a popular MP, this news probably means that Labor will likely win here by <5%. And I will admit that Kevin Conolly was a bad MP, who else do the Liberal Party have besides a few hacks on council? Demography at face value would suggest that the seat would trend to the Liberals, but the party needs to desperately reorganise if they want to hold this area into the future. Right now, they will probably also lose Winston Hills too, but that's beside the point.
Whilst the Metro is good for access to Macquarie Uni and shopping centre’s where else does it go ?
The Seat of Riverstone is home to the North West Growth Area the fastest growing population in NSW with a population explosion of 54,000 in the last 4 years.
We have little infrastructure with the big answer always being the Metro but the metro services has 1 station in the growth area. No money for Roads, No money for Schools, The Rouse Hill medical Centre is not a hospital and has not been delivered.
We have the most Children in NSW and no schools. In 2028 there will be 20,00 children in the feeder area for Riverstone high a school with the capacity of 1,000.
Its no surprise the Liberals got slammed we got sick of the empty promises and the Liberals who don’t even really know who we are or where we are !!!
Riverstone needs investment, the potential in the area could be incredible if it is not neglected, duplicate the rail line to the Hawkesbury, Build a hospital at Riverstone which is the Centre of the growth area, build an m7 onramp at Quakers Hill and for God Sake deliver of the employment lands that were planned
Investment by the Government guarantees private Investors waiting to deliver an opportunity too big to ignore
Kevin Connoly has been the worst elected member for Riverstone ever. He does not care about businesses in thea area, provided no help at all during the pandemic (just forwarded emails to other departments), does not answer questions forwarded to his office and will no have a forthright discussion with other areas of government within the area. In addition the, so called, chamber of commerce is very cosy with him and the development on the western side of the railway line. They seem to sing to that tune and leave all other businesses in the area to fend for themselves. No support duing the pandemic with relationships with State Government. Whomever the new member for Riverstone will be cant be worse than Kevin but I dont think they can be elected.
I wonder if we will see any seat-swapping here so that the Liberals can try and get failed-Macquarie candidate, Sarah Richards, into parliament? Richards for Hawkesbury, Preston for Riverstone?
Or perhaps Patrick Connolly for Riverstone? And Preston shafted altogether?
Unlikely. Sarah Richards is continually trying to target winning Macquarie (despite having no ability to campaign within the Lower Blue Mountains). I doubt that Robyn Preston will move from Hawkesbury as well.
Patrick Connolly for Riverstone? Doubt it. I do know that David Elliott is trying to push Hills Shires Councillor Reena Jethi into the seat, after her failed attempt at pre-selection for the Hills Shires Mayoralty.
Whoever wins this one, it’s likely to be a win for cultural diversity in the parliament.
Mohit Kumar preselected for the Liberals, and it looks likely Councillor Moninder Singh will be the Labor candidate – lots of campaign photos on his Facebook page lately.
Agree, John as some who is South Asian myself and have who has relatives in this seat. I welcome this as well as Charishma Kaliyanada in the seat of Liverpool (a safe seat). In Holt at the federal election most of their candidates were South Asian. i do hope in Fairfield and Cabramatta diverse candidates are selected as well and the ALP has learned from the Fowler debacle.
This is good for Labor who have a diverse, fairly high-profile candidate running for this open seat. Riverstone is one of the key targets and likely to be gained by Labor at this election.
Hi Friends, this is Moey. Just wanted to say G’day to everyone and wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. As a serving Police Officer and Prosecutor, I have put my hand up as a candidate, so I can continue to serve our Riverstone Community and would love to connect with you all and hear your concerns/ideas/recommendations for the area. Cheers Mo
it seems blacktown mayor Tony blesedale will be the labor candadate which if true would be bad news he is from mtdruit and runs a contracting firm has been on cowncil since 11996 this would be hardly be an inspiring choice
is it true blezedaleblack town mayor will get preselected in riverstone
was mohit kumar seleced buy the diaz family do they still control the local branches in the seat
i heard that Julie owens deputy mayor will be the candidate for the labour party . Apparently decided today
she would not be the candadate she was former federal mp mayybi Tony bleasdale blacktown mayor could run
Aaron and angelo, that would be unwelcome news if a white candidate was selected for Labor. The Liberals have a strong candidate in police officer Mohit Kumar who is nonwhite so Labor needs to also have a non-white candidate to have best opportunity of capturing this open seat.
I don’t think the race of the candidates particularly matters. There’s a tendency to overemphasise that aspect among political commentators but voters aren’t as shallow as presumed. Lots of people seemed to think Gladys Liu would outperform for example and make a contest out of Chisholm simply on that basis. Also in the federal equivalent of this seat (Greenway) there was a huge swing against the Liberals even though they picked an Indian candidate.
The South Asian community in particular doesn’t care about candidates of the same race if they don’t share their values. Tarneit in Victoria continued to vote incredibly strongly for Labor in the recent election despite their candidate being white and the Liberals picking a South Asian.
suprised labor hasnt chosen riverstone candadate this close to election
This seat I would say was uncertain..right on 6% with the sitting mp retiring. This is also. Huge population growth area..I suspect this will be down the wire.
There were rumours that David Elliott Was offered candidacy for this seat but declined. Obviously he agrees that this seat is uncertain. Or maybe other reasons…
im suprised that this close to the election nsw labor still does not have a candadate hear yet
I’d expect this seat to be very close on election night along with Winston Hills. Labor would need to pick up both to form majority government. Big swing to Labor in the federal election here. The problem for the NSW Libs here is that the swing then seemed to include elements of local anger towards inadequate infrastructure a bit like in Olympic Park which is likely to flow through to the state level. The likely huge swing in Olympic Park is also why I believe Parramatta is an almost definite Labor gain (combined with the loss of Geoff Lee’s personal vote).
There is one fundamental difference between Winston Hills and Riverstone though. Riverstone is a rapidly growing area while Winston Hills consists of more established suburbs that won’t be suffering as many infrastructure grievances that the voters of Riverstone would. I’d expect the swing in Riverstone to Labor to be stronger than in Winston Hills, plus no sitting MP here unlike in Winston Hills. Infrastructure is a state issue that voters will certainly judge state governments on.
This is not a must win for alp majority govt.. but this will probably be one of the seats on this blog for the post count
Warren Kirby announced as Labor’s candidate for Riverstone
so labor must not want to win this seat they have picked a un known candadate
have not heard much about labors candadate aparently he is a local buisesman has he made any publick comments it was not a good sign when Minns anowsed he was running he was not allowed to speak does warin curby have any local profile aparently black town mayor tony bleasdale was interested have no idea whiy labor would pick a candadate in a marginal seat with no profile at all
labor putting alot of effort into this seat. Two decent candidates.
I think ALP victory 52-48.
This seat is uncertain.. but on Federal figures it would be a easy alp win
Not sure Mick why you are so keen to apply federal figures to seats that suit your outcome (eg Riverstone/Parramatta) but don’t adopt the same principle to Penrith, Heathcote and East Hills!!
Also Michelle Rolland’s Sportsbet Snafoo is not going to help the ALP in Riverstone.
Try to work out which are most accurate. A vote in labors
‘ favour in federal election is a suggestion of what is possible. East Hills includes Condell park and parts of Bass Hill Georges Hall which makes the vote more pro Labor.. Penrith a special case Ayres won’t win. Parramatta minus Mr Lee and plus the Olympic Park suburbs with the ongoing pro alp demographic change. Riverstone I just don’t know.. I don’t think Mr Connelly had a personal vote… I don’t expect labor to win by 9%.. but is line ball. Overall labors vote in nsw is 2 to 5% higher than the federal vote and Labor is polling a higher vote than the coalition on primary votes important with opv. The boundaries at the state level seem also to be more labor friendly. Then Federally. Epping on federal figures is a close run thing but I don’t expect the the premier to lose. The line ball seats will depend on candidates.. the state campaign etc . but with a pro Labor general swing labor would be unlucky not to win some.
federal results are rarely replicated at state elections and vice versa as they are fought on differenet issues. WA was the exception to this rule due to a popular premier and general belief that WA is its own country. line ball contest as this seat is within the margin of error in the expected swing
the other interesting thing about this electorate is the split of the vote from the greens 33% voted liberal over labor. and with another left lenaing party in AJ that vote may fracture further. whereas the right only have one candidate
Unusual results for green. And ajp preferences are the result of opv. If green exhaust rate or preference flow seem favourable to the liberals that means there is a possibility of more votes to Labor via green preferences. It is also possible that Labor can outpoll the liberals on primary votes if that happens then Labor wins
its hard to tell how this seat will go the labor candadate is not well konw where as liberal candadate is campaigning heavily with premier
This seat is uncertain is a growth area so can really swing. I don’t think Mr Connelly had a personal vote pre 2011 Labor had no trouble holding this seat.