LIB 0.6%
Incumbent MP
Stuart Ayres, since 2010.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Western Sydney. The seat of Penrith covers central suburbs of the City of Penrith and parts of the lower Blue Mountains. Suburbs include Penrith, Cambridge Gardens, Cambridge Park, Jamisontown, Kingswood, Cranebrook, Emu Plains, Leonay and part of Lapstone.
Redistribution
Glenbrook and part of Lapstone were transferred from Penrith to Blue Mountains. There were a number of changes to the border between Penrith and Londonderry. Penrith gained Cambridge Park and Boorooberongal Lake, while Londonderry gained Caddens and areas near Cranebrook. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 1.3% to 0.6%.
History
The seat of Penrith has existed since 1973. While it is currently Liberal-held, it had been won by the ALP at all but one election prior to 2011.
Penrith was first won in 1973 by Ron Mulock, who had won the marginal seat of Nepean in 1971. Mulock moved to the new seat of St Marys in 1981, holding it until its abolition in 1988. Mulock served as a minister through the entire Labor government from 1976 to 1988, serving as Deputy Premier from 1984.
Penrith was won in 1981 by Peter Anderson. He had won Nepean back from the Liberal Party in 1978 before moving to the safer seat of Penrith in 1981. Anderson had served as a minister from 1982, and in 1986 he challenged Barrie Unsworth for the Labor leadership upon the retirement of Neville Wran.
Anderson lost Penrith in a shock result at the 1988 election. He returned to Parliament at a by-election for Liverpool in 1989, holding the seat until 1995.
Guy Matheson won Penrith for the Liberal Party in 1988. He lost the seat in 1991.
Matheson lost in 1991 to Penrith mayor Faye Lo Po’, running for the ALP. She served as a minister from 1995 to 2003, when she retired from Penrith.
Penrith was won in 2003 by Penrith councillor Karyn Paluzzano. She was appointed a parliamentary secretary in 2008.
In 2010, she faced an inquiry by the Independent Commission Against Corruption over accusations that she had falsified pay forms. Following an adverse finding, she resigned from Parliament in May 2010.
The subsequent by-election was won by Liberal candidate Stuart Ayres. He won the seat with an unprecedented 25.7% swing, turning a 9% ALP margin into a 16% Liberal margin. Ayres has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Penrith is a very marginal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Stuart Ayres | Liberal | 19,561 | 40.0 | -5.6 | 39.8 |
| Karen McKeown | Labor | 17,415 | 35.6 | +2.8 | 36.8 |
| Carl Halley | One Nation | 3,510 | 7.2 | +7.2 | 6.8 |
| Nick Best | Greens | 2,454 | 5.0 | -0.5 | 4.7 |
| Mark Tyndall | Independent | 1,415 | 2.9 | +2.9 | 2.8 |
| Rod Franich | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 1,276 | 2.6 | +2.6 | 2.5 |
| David Burton | Christian Democrats | 1,095 | 2.2 | -1.7 | 2.2 |
| Geoff Brown | Sustainable Australia | 577 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.7 |
| Kaj Mcbeth | Animal Justice | 885 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.6 |
| Marcus Cornish | Independent | 665 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.2 |
| Informal | 1,819 | 3.6 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Stuart Ayres | Liberal | 21,204 | 51.3 | -4.9 | 50.6 |
| Karen McKeown | Labor | 20,096 | 48.7 | +4.9 | 49.4 |
Booths in Penrith have been split into three parts: central, north and west. The “west” covers those polling places west of the Nepean River, including those in the lower Blue Mountains.
The Liberal Party polled 59.2% of the two-party-preferred vote in the west. Labor won more narrowly in the centre (51.1%) and north (51.5%).
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 48.9 | 13,678 | 28.2 |
| North | 48.5 | 12,672 | 26.1 |
| West | 59.2 | 6,663 | 13.7 |
| Pre-poll | 51.8 | 8,481 | 17.5 |
| Other votes | 48.1 | 7,055 | 14.5 |
Election results in Penrith at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
One of the key seats to watch. Stuart Ayres will have extra profile with his promotion to Lib Deputy Leader and the area seems to be very receptive to the rightward shift of the Lib party given Lindsay swung to the Libs at the federal election. That being said, there’s likely going to be a general swing to Labor at the election and this seat’s margin is already knife-edge.
I think one reason the LNP is making more inroads in Penrith is due to NSW Libs broader strategy of winning working-class areas through focus in those areas (like Penrith) without reducing their support traditional old money voting base
Yes and Ayres supports raising the dam.wall. and he.may well.be visiting icac soon re his mate the ex deputy.premier’s gift
State does not equal federal. Even in a absolute sense a swing at a Federal level does not even mean a swing at the state level.Mr Ayres is a member of a government which is getting towards the end of its time.. there will be an uneven swing of up to 7%.. a very marginal seat is in danger in such a climate
@Dan M, building on your point. I suspect that it will be parts of Sydney in the outer-west like Penrith where Perrottet will be more popular due to his personal profile than Berejiklian.
I sense Berejiklian was popular amongst working professionals, particularly in the eastern suburbs.
Whereas it seems Perrottet, due to his large family and Catholic credentials, is more appealing to working families in the suburbs more generally. Including some ethnic and religious groups which are generally more Labor-leaning. Although this factor might just soften Labor support amongst ethnic & religious groups, not tip TPPs in the other direction.
Only issue is that I only expect the Perrottet factor to be a slight bump in the outer-west while also equating to huge deficits in the East. In the east I expect ~10% swings away from the Coalition with independents likely to be the biggest beneficiaries.
Ayres has resigned his ministry and as Deputy Leader – at this point he’s still running again.
This would be tricky for the Libs to hold. Both major parties will throw resources at it. There are safe state Liberal seats sitting on top of or overlapping federal Labor seats. It would be extraordinary if Labor wins Penrith, since there was a pro-Liberal swing in Lindsay at the federal election.
SEQ Observer makes a fair point about Perrottet appealing more to various ethnic, religious voters especially in Western Sydney, whilst Berejiklian appeals more to “small l” liberals. As a young-ish dad with a large family, he does have a broader appeal to working families who see him as more relatable.
Chris Minns is campaigning really hard on tolls. The local area is very car-dependent and a higher than average percentage of people in Penrith drive to work and so Labor could score some votes in this area.
depends on the stink factor if Ayres runs here
I think Perrottet has better policies than Minns – but the libs have had too much dodgy dealing come to light that may cost them at the election if voters put integrity above other concerns
Did the liberals run the nsw rum corps long ago?. In may 2010 there was a 25% swing when Ayres won.. a huge margin in a naturally marginal seat.. his majority is now 0.6%.. his actions in seemingly helping his mate.. led to his new position as a backbencher.. if there were a by election now they would lose. Obviously Ayres cannot re contest.. pity the new liberal candidate who cannot win.
@Mick – Yes, there was a 25% swing when Ayres won. But this was a period when Labor was ridiculously on the nose in NSW and Australia. So read absolutely nothing into it.
This seat has been slowly trending Liberal for a number of years and, this time around, the drop in margin (I think) is due to a fairly unfavourable redistribution as well, losing some Liberal Voting areas around Emu Plains.
IMO, I think Ayres is done. There is no way he comes back from this.
Agreed. The margin is just too small here, assuming a general swing to Labor. My best guess is that Labor wins here by 4% at most.
Penrith mayor Karen McKeown will be running here again as the Labor candidate.
Perhaps I could be somewhat more optimistic here. 5-10% for Labor. McKeown seems popular enough as mayor & is probably their best candidate. However, this is not the worst news for the Liberals. In 2010, Ayres won here by 16.6%. Now the margin is 0.6%. That means the seat has trended 3.8% to the ALP over the past decade, meaning that the seat is probably the easiest for Labor to pick up in the state; a combination of a small margin & trends, as opposed to East Hills for instance, which despite being on a 0.1% margin has trended 11.7% to the Liberals since 2011. Now that Ayres is gone from the frontbench, his personal brand has been severely hampered, and it could be likely that he will resign.
The other major factor that will push Labor over the line here are cost of living matters, especially in relation to tollways. Considering several residents will use the M7 on a regular basis, this is an area where Labor’s populist rhetoric on this particular front will play well with the population. I talked in greater detail about this in the Winston Hills thread though.
(the trends do not account for redistributions though, however in the case of Penrith, the alterations have been minor)
wonder if ayres will contest mckeown is litle known in penrith desbite her long time in cowncil but labor is not doing very well in penrith one of the few seats to swing to liberals both at cowncil and federaly
Ayres could win but his brand has been damaged the liberals campaign on floods does not seem to be working yet and unlike lindsay labor is putting up a well known candadate inlocal cowncilor karin mckeown who nelly won the seat last election plus the campaign on tolls will help
Agree aaron, also Stuart ayres has been embroiled in the recent scandal involving former deputy premier John barilaro when it was revealed he played a key role in barilaro’s selection/appointment for an international trade envoy position against the wishes of other senior officials.
I see Penrith as one of the first liberal held seats to fall.
This seat has the most registered candidates so far (4) along with Willoughby and North Shore.
I currently have the following candidates running in Penrith:
LIB – Stuart Ayres (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)
ALP – Karen McKeown (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)
PHON – Belinda McWilliams (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)
IND – Geoffrey Duncan (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register)
Parties I’d expect to field a candidate: AJP, GRN, SAP
Possible parties to field a candidate: IMOP, LDP (both ran in Lindsay 2022)
This seat is indeed finely poised.
The stronger GRN areas in the Mts (Glenbrook & Leonay) have been moved out with more area around Cambridge Pk & Gardens brought in. The Mts booths were the weakest for PHON while the areas brought in are stronger ALP. I agree that this seat in finely poised and with @Yoh An at being one of the first to fall. With the scandals left in 2022, I don’t think the impact will be that big and more based on Govt current performance. ALP will need a swing of about 2-3% I reckon on primary to get this, as the GRN vote is low across here and won’t be much assistance to get them across (as mentioned Glenbrook was 10.58% GRN & Lapstone 11%, no other booth crossed double digits for GRN vote).
PHON cracked double digits in only one booth, Cambridge Pk P.S. 10.2% which was the LIB second weakest. If the PHON vote falls, LIB will also struggle for that feeder, unless it comes directly back to LIB as primary votes. And keep in mind Lindsay had a swing against ALP in the Fed election. This seat is so close to call. Ayres profile might just save him, but with currently polling favouring ALP, I just might think this will fall. (Or it could be another East Hills!)
2023 Jan Prediction: TOSS-UP (Lean ALP)
The federal seat of Lindsey bucked the national trend and has become a safe liberal seat so it will be interesting to see if Penrith stays in Liberal hands. This electorate could go either way but its a must win for both major parties.
Bob the sitting Mp for Lindsay had a bigger margin and she was not forced to resign from the ministry due to a scandal. If i were the liberals I would have looked for a new candidate. For Ayres to win …is not possible
this seems different to the federal seat of lindsay firstly labor has pickt a local cowncilor former mayor Karin mcjkown who does not have a high profile but is campaigningly heavily andis campaignly heavily unlike lindsay where labor did not make much of a effort plus ayres is not campaigning much seems he is still facing problims with barilarow scandle
it is different to lindsay the labor candadate local cowncilor and former mayor karin mckeown ran last time and has a low profile but is campaigning stongly and ayres is not doing much and unpopular over barilarow scandle and does not even live in the seat living in molgoa
A couple of observations on this seat for the discussion thread:
First, Stuart Ayres local profile: he is clearly a higher profile state MP and long-time Minister. People know who he is, but if he carried a strong local MP vote, then you would expect his primary and 2PP vote to trend above the statewide Party vote. It has not. I am not saying he hasn’t delivered for this community in his time in office, he clearly has achieved a lot. Just noting that the results suggest that there might be a bit of a myth around the strong local vote – looks more like a classic bellwether over the last 20 years.
Second, the long list of conservative (or conservative appearing) minor parties/candidates seems to be a disadvantage for Ayres in the flow of preferences. I know there are a lot of factors in how/why preferences flow and exhaust, but over the last two cycles, Labor is doing a lot better on the allocation of preferences in the 2PP count. I reckon the longer the list of minor parties, the higher chance of this seat flipping, even if Ayres only takes a small haircut on the primary vote. It’s a ONP stronghold within Western Sydney and will probably again attract all the spin-off minors.
well agree he is higher profile well was ever since he resigned over the Barilarow scandle he has not been plus desbite being a long serving minister and even briefly deputy leader of liberals he has usualy held junier portfoleos such as sport trade and was most well known foor upgrading nepean river but also seems close to the rugbey league was in charge of stadiums andseems moore interested in photo ops then serving plus his long running campaign to increase Waragamba dam wall has not been well recieved locally desbite his long campaign i think he is viewed as not very interested in the seat moore in being well liked buy the big sporting bodies he lives in molgoa which is not in his seat
it seems stuart ayres apart fromdeveloping nepean river seems to have been more focused on giving major sporting bodies moore support has had a low fprofile since being sacked
how do we think penrith will go how is laborur looking
Labor is looking good, Labor will pick this up on election night, nominating Ayres was a mistake for the Liberals and will drag them down here, this is one of the few seats that I think incumbency won’t help this time around and Ayres retiring would have actually helped the Liberals hold.
Labor gain 3-4% swing. Mostly off the back of the statewide swing but wouldn’t be surprised if it was bigger despite the trends in far western Sydney to the liberals.
In 2019, there were 10 candidates and a strong One Nation vote. This might’ve dragged the Labor vote down last time.
not sure whiy ayres wanted to run again the barilarow scandle would not help him now it looks like 2011 is repeating now on liberal side with perottit shutting down parliament early to triy and stop a parliamentary inquiry where his brothers are refusing to attend it seems like a repeat of labor in 2011
Aaron, I don’t think Perrottet is shutting down Parliament early. Parliament has to be prorogued/terminated before the start of the campaign and release of writs. The prorogation is only 5 days before the release of writs, hardly early and certainly not like Labor 2011 which shut down Parliament in December.
it seems to me that it is similar labor has set up an inquiry and perottit seems to be hiding his brothers from scrutiny
is ayres doing much campaigning labor and mckeown are at train stations most mornings dont think ayres name recognitions would help this time
i know labor seems to be campaigning very heavkily at train stations most mornings not sure how many votes this would help with but i dont think Ayres name recognition would help him this time
stuart ayres has been les active then in other campaigns
can labor winn this ayres is promising a lot of money but he is damaged buy the liberals scandles
If they don’t they won’t be any form of government
0.6% is a tiny margin. The liberals would have been wiser to have got a new candidate.
As Aaron points out he is damaged by scandals especially john Barilaro’s rorted trade commissioner
selection. there is no way Ayres can justify his role there. There are no must win seats it is just the wash up.. it is possible labor wins South Coast and fails to win Upper Hunter
is ayres sceen as a good local member some of prues old electorit has moved in to penrith which increasis the labor margin but he is not in the news much which could help him
funny timing of icac report in to stuart ayres maybi having a former mp as comitioner might not be the best idea just before an election not sure if it wil save it
funny timing of icac report in to stuart ayres maybi having a former mp as comitioner might not be the best idea just before an election not sure if it wil save it wouldnt icac have enough time to complete there other reports
i dont think the barilarow scandle will hope ayres its looking like labor can win
can stuart qayres recover from keeping a low profile and not making many anowsments
how do we think ayres will go
i think labor is running a strong campaign hear focusing on minns plan for the state it doesnt help that the liberal mp Stuart ayres is under presure over the barilarow matterplus some labor friendlier aeriashave moved from prues seat in to penrith likereducing liberal margin
@aaron i dont know it is boosting his profile and he didnt do anything illegal
If Ayres were a public servant he would have lost his job for his Barilaro selection role.It was a rort.
Agree mick, ayres is probably in a worse situation compared to barilaro because I believe he was the one who actually recommended or endorsed barilaro for the role.
@mick so would every politician who has chosen their mates for high profile overseas positions
yes he didnt tecnicaly but giving jobs for the boys is not ceruption its just a bad look
Are we going to start calling Albo corrupt and would we refer him to a federal ICAC because of him appoint his mate Kevin Rudd as the ambassador to the USA?