Parramatta – NSW 2023

LIB 6.3%

Incumbent MP
Geoff Lee, since 2011.

Geography
Western Sydney. Parramatta covers suburbs around the Parramatta CBD, including Clyde, Dundas, Ermington, Harris Park, Rydalmere and parts of Mays Hill, North Parramatta and Westmead. Parramatta also covers Newington, Silverwater and Wentworth Point on the Olympic Park peninsula. The electorate is almost entirely contained within the City of Parramatta.

Redistribution
Parramatta gained Silverwater, Newington, Wentworth Point and Sydney Olympic Park from Auburn, Clyde and part of Mays Hill from Granville, and Westmead from Seven Hills. In exchange, Parramatta lost Carlingford, Oatlands, Telopea and Dundas Valley to Epping. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 10.6% to 6.3%.

History
The electoral district of Parramatta has existed continuously since the first Legislative Assembly in 1856. The seat was first a two-member district until 1880, when it became a single-member district. It expanded in 1920 to become a three-member district, before becoming a single-member district in 1927. The seat was dominated by conservative parties in the early 20th century, but since the 1950s it has been dominated by the ALP, who won all but one election between 1959 and 2011.

Parramatta was won in a 1916 by-election by Liberal candidate Albert Bruntnell. Over the previous decade he had twice served in the Legislative Assembly, representing Surry Hills and Annandale. He served as Member for Parramatta continuously until his death in 1929. When Parramatta expanded in 1920 it took over the previous seat of Granville, and the former Member for Granville, Jack Lang, was elected as a member for Parramatta. He twice served as Premier, and when single-member districts were restored in 1927, he was elected in Auburn.

The 1929 by-election was won by senior military officer Herbert Lloyd, running as a Nationalist. He lost in 1930, but later held Mosman from 1932 to 1941.

Parramatta was won in 1930 by the ALP’s Joseph Byrne. He held the seat until 1932, when an election was triggered by the Governor’s removal of Lang as Premier. Byrne was one of many casualties of the ensuing landslide.

George Gollan won Parramatta in 1932 for the United Australia Party. He served as a minister in UAP governments from 1938 to 1941. He held the seat until the 1953 election, when a redistribution made the seat stronger for the ALP. He retired and was succeeded by the ALP’s Kevin Morgan.

Morgan held the seat for one term, losing in 1956 to Jim Clough of the Liberal Party. Clough himself lost in 1959. He later held the seat of Eastwood from 1965 to 1988. He served as a minister for the final four months of the Liberal government in 1976.

Parramatta was won in 1959 by the ALP’s Dan Mahoney. He held the seat until his retirement in 1976. Barry Wilde, also of the ALP, held the seat from 1976 to 1988.

The Liberal Party’s John Books won Parramatta in 1988 by 268 votes. In 1991, the redistribution made the seat notionally Labor, and Books lost to the ALP’s Andrew Ziolkowski.

Ziolkowski was diagnosed with cancer of the oesophagus in 1993, and died in 1994. The ensuing by-election was won by his wife Gabrielle Harrison. Harrison served as Minister for Sport and Recreation in the first term of the Carr government from 1995 to 1999.

Prior to the 2003 election, Harrison faced a preselection challenge from Tanya Gadiel, an advisor to Police Minister Michael Costa. In the face of the challenge she stepped down, and Gadiel won the seat in 2003.

Gadiel was re-elected in 2007 and became a parliamentary secretary shortly after. She left that post in 2008 to serve as Deputy Speaker of the Legislative Assembly, and she retired in 2011.

Liberal candidate Geoff Lee won Parramatta at the 2011 election, and he was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Geoff Lee is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Geoff Lee has built up a strong position in Parramatta, but the redistribution removed his best part of the seat, and this seat could change hands if Labor does well.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Geoff Lee Liberal 26,322 54.0 +0.2 49.9
Liz Scully Labor 14,736 30.2 +1.5 34.1
Phil Bradley Greens 3,637 7.5 -0.9 8.0
Michelle Garrard Independent 1,955 4.0 +0.8 2.8
Samuel Bellwood Keep Sydney Open 1,023 2.1 +2.1 2.4
Jasmina Moltter Sustainable Australia 701 1.4 +1.4 1.2
Susan Price Socialist Alliance 354 0.7 +0.7 0.6
Others 1.1
Informal 1,621 3.2

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Geoff Lee Liberal 27,330 60.6 -2.2 56.3
Liz Scully Labor 17,733 39.4 +2.2 43.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Parramatta have been split into three parts: east, south-west and west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.5% in the south-west to 59.8% in the east.

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
East 8.2 59.8 13,204 29.8
West 7.8 55.1 7,632 17.2
South-West 7.3 53.5 5,514 12.5
Other votes 9.2 54.6 11,781 26.6
Pre-poll 6.5 56.1 6,140 13.9

Election results in Parramatta at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.

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84 COMMENTS

  2. This seat is likely one of the more exciting ones. Redistribution took out Geoff Lee’s base in Carlingford and Dundas and replaced them with Olympic Park which swung 19% to Labor in the election which would make the Libs pretty nervous.

  3. The redistribution panel adopted my idea of using James Ruse Drive and Kissing Point Road as the boundary between Parramatta and Epping, and reorienting both districts east-west.

    Understandably, the Liberals were not happy with this. They tried to push back against the changes in the objections phase with some spurious justifications, which I refuted in the comments on objections phase.

    Funnily enough, if the panel had fully adopted my suggestion, there’d be a new “Pennant Hills” district to the north of Epping, which would’ve (at least partly) solved the Liberals’ predicament – Lee could’ve transferred to Epping, and Perrottet to Pennant Hills, and both MPs would still live in their electorates.

    My suggestion did not include the Olympic Park area, and instead included more of Northmead, Westmead, Wentworthville, and Mays Hill. I wonder what the margin would have been on my boundaries? But based on federal results, it’s possible the panel’s inclusion of Olympic Park instead of areas further west doesn’t work out to be in the Liberals’ favour.

  4. @Nicholas – Correct me if I am wrong but Wentworth Point and Newington were both part of Auburn prior to the redistribution. If that was true, then LIB did well there considering it is a Labor stronghold.

    We have seen bigger margins get run down in the past, but it is difficult to see which section of Parramatta swings to deliver the seat to Labor. The best chance would be a swing based around Parramatta Central.

  5. Hawkeye, you are right that both Wentworth Point and Newington were part of Auburn state district prior to the redistribution. I think these areas were generally more conservative leaning due to their proximity to Rhodes and having a higher concentration of Asian voters.

    However, that part did see a double digit swing to Labor based on Federal booth results in Reid, although that could have been due to voters not being supportive of anti China rhetoric from the Coalition nationally and a weak incumbent in Fiona Martin.

  6. If you look at the 2PP map in this blog post, you’ll see that most of those Parramatta booths were red at the federal election. Around 60% 2PP on the Olympic Park peninsula. That won’t be replicated but it looks like there’s plenty of room for Labor to grow.

  7. Geoff Lee is a very strong MP who has a significant personal vote which is why you can see the disparity between the Lib vote in the existing areas in the seat like Parramatta CBD and the newly added areas like Westmead. Will be intresting to see whether that flows onto newly added Wentworth Point and Westmead. Rapidly growing Wentworth Point swung viciously to Labor which will make the Libs really nervous.

  8. The factors that made the western part of Reid (Wentworth Point and Newington) swing hard to Labor won’t be there. There was a dud local Liberal MP, a strong Labor campaigner with Chinese heritage and pro-Labor swing in Chinese-Australian communities nationwide. The latter factor also helped Labor get a swing in the eastern part of the federal seat of Parramatta (Ermington and Rydalmere).

    I agree that Geoff Lee has a strong local profile. Despite having a seat that sits on top of federal Labor seats, he still managed to increase his primary vote each time and even in 2015 when there was a big statewide swing to Labor.

  9. The Olympic Park suburbs voted 59% liberal here last state election. 2019 federal election alp vote there was in low 50%s.. now 2022 election federal…. was at least 59% alp. This area will make the 6% margin much less all by itself. I suspect there will all things being equal.. be a swing here to Labor.
    Ignoring the Olympic part suburbs.. close alp result ,?

  10. You can clearly see which areas are redistributed into Parramatta and which ones were already part of it based on the strength of the Liberal vote particularly in the west of the seat. Goes to show the impact of Geoff Lee’s strong personal vote and the significant attention the seat has gotten from the state government over the past 2 elections.

  11. Geoff Lee has announced his retirement.

    As with Dominello next door, Lee has a huge personal vote that will now be lost. I’m feeling a Labor gain here.

  12. Would have been in danger even with Lee as the candidate.. looking at federal figures especially around Olympic Park… a more likely alp hain

  13. Not a good sign that two of the more popular members of the state gov are retiring, leaving both this seat and Ryde in play. This seat is gone with the Libs with Geoff Lee gone.

  14. On my calculations, Labor won this seat at the federal level by around 7.2%. At this point, the seat is as good as gone for the Liberals; a replicated swing in the Olympic Park area alone will flip the seat. Considering that the Liberal Party are losing popular MPs in competitive/Labor leaning districts, they really need to do something to stop the entire frontbench from retiring. Otherwise, not only will Labor get a majority, but it could approach a blowout similar in scale to 2011 (worst case scenario though).

  15. I would say Lee’s personal vote adds almost 10% to the margin in areas that were within the previous boundaries. He is immensely popular. The Olympic Park area might well swing 10% or more too.

  16. Infrastructure building and public transport in Parramatta might just be the tipping point. It has been the centre of attention for years and billions have been poured in. The election will probably be a referendum or opinion poll on such matters. There are mixed opinions on all of them.

    There are huge controversies too.
    – The light rail opening is delayed until 2024
    – Ferries that can’t fit under bridges
    – Powerhouse Museum, whose area was flooded in 2021 and 2022 when the Parramatta River broke its banks

    In 2019, Coogee was the only Liberal seat that flipped to Labor and the controversial South East Light Rail was mainly to blame. Parramatta could follow the same path. Labor can’t take this seat for granted. Either side could win with the right candidate.

  17. The light rail opening is quite annoying but I think a lot of that stuff is over-rated.

    The ferry-bridge thing wasn’t a mistake, it was a deliberate choice. It’s one bridge right at the end of a 90-minute ferry ride. Most people using that ferry aren’t going all the way to Parramatta, and there’s very little ferry use here.

    I doubt the anti-museum stuff carries to many people.

  18. As it was in Reid, there’s an argument the ‘Olympic Peninsular’ will be quite influential in this seat.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/council-takes-on-residents-over-plea-to-block-development-of-45-storey-towers-20221010-p5bojs.html

    For an area that is very high density/ transient in nature, there are some strong community groups focused almost entirely on development and infrastructure. These local concerns could easily shift the ‘small l’ white-collar voting base to the left.

  19. Kind of stunning to see how the Liberals won booths in Harris Park and the suburb of Parramatta itself. The difference between these booths and the strong Labor territory that’s been redistributed into the seat in Westmead/Mays Hill should be no more than 5-10 points based on federal/local elections and instead it’s more like 15-20 points. That might be a clear demonstration of some of Geoff Lee’s personal vote which will be lost.

    If there is a swing to Labor (as expected) I expect this to be one of the first seats to be lost, and more likely to be lost than East Hills or Penrith.

  20. This is quite likely going to be the first seat to fall to Labor. With Geoff Lee’s personal vote gone, I’d expect vicious swings in the areas that were in the old Parramatta.

  21. Agree Dan, out of all the Liberal held seats I see Parramatta along with Penrith and Heathcote (notional Labor) as most vulnerable of being lost this election.

  22. I just had a look at the NSWEC candidates’ register. Still no candidates in Parramatta. Isn’t this supposed to be a battleground seat?

  24. Donna Davis wouldn’t be a bad choice except that she is from the Epping Ward, which is entirely outside the electorate. It’s not too far out and plus having ‘Lord Mayor of Parramatta’ on her CV gives the impression that she’s a local.

    Both majors should each preselect a candidate who is a strong, local figure with name recognition since it’s a battleground seat and there’s not much campaigning time left.

  25. Yes the Olympic Park area voted 59% lib in 2019. This is likely to vote 59% alp or better. Take away Geoff lees personal vote and a general swing to Labor I would say likely alp gain

  28. Davis has been announced as the Labor candidate- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-05/western-sydney-emerging-as-key-battleground-in-nsw/101828438

    I’d call this as a potential Labor gain, the loss of Geoff Lee’s personal vote will significantly harm the Liberals. Labor almost certainly won’t be able to win the election as a whole without Parramatta.
    In saying that, predictions of a 10+ percent Labor margin are going a bit far. I’d expect it to be a marginal Labor seat.

  29. This is a different contest minus Mr Lee.. if he were the candidate I would say line ball. With the loss of his personal vote and the shifting of the Olympic part suburbs into the seat and their ongoing pro alp demographic change I would say an alp win

  30. Labor has announced that it will complete Stage 2 of Parramatta Light rail, this should be popular around the Olympic Park zone.

  31. Not a local, but as a Victorian who has been to Parramatta a few times in the last couple of years I can’t really see any reason why there would be a big swing to Labor here. It seems to have received more investment (rightly so as an emerging second CBD for Sydney) than pretty much anywhere else in the state. In Victoria, areas with a lot of infrastructure investment (SRL) in the eastern suburbs rewarded the government. Also don’t know how much an MP could build up a personal vote in a highly transient area like this, so perhaps the impact of a retirement won’t be so big. Mostly familiar with the Parramatta CBD though and surrounding areas, not familiar with the areas around Olympic Park so much. Happy for a local to enlighten or correct me.

  33. I can only speak for myself but as a local who started living here a few years ago, I have only seen continuously delayed construction of the light rail with unclear reward, with the roads all the while being disrupted. I’ve never received the impression that the government’s investment was getting them credit in this area.

  34. I am certain that Labor will win here. The demographics of the Olympic Park suburbs. Here was a 59% liberal vote in 2019 alp won these suburbs by small margins @ the Federal level. In 2022 in Reid Labor got another 10 % swing their way. So the seat is swinging Labor big time based on all this I think it highly likely Labor wins in the Olympic Park suburbs.. now take away Mr Lee’s personal vote in other parts of the seat and this could well be another 4 to 5% pro Labor swing in the old areas as well..it would not surprise me if there was in excess of a 10% swing here.

  35. Tried to compare votes using the areas in this guide
    East including Olympic peninsula 42% lib
    West.. 43%
    South west 45%
    All liberal 2pp based on Federal figures
    Now be generous assume Labor only wins the East then the liberals need to win in the other 2 areas. On federal figures alp polled roughly 10% higher in those 2 areas now I think minus Mr Lee. That there is a fair chance that Labor will win these 2 areas as well.. I cannot see a liberal win here
    Alp gain

  37. The Libs have preselected a member of the hard right, Katie Mullens, not the best match for this seat. Given only 1 candidate nominated for a seat with a 6+% margin, I presume the Libs don’t have high expectations of retaining this seat.

  38. Donna Davis had to be imposed in Parramatta. I asked a mate why and she told me that the party members actually hate her. In a rank and file preselection he said Alan mascarna would have likely won for the left but there is a right winger who would have come a close second. Davis wasn’t even in the race. He told me Davis will struggle with supporters.

  39. I don’t know the lie of the land re the local alp. But I heard that Donna would probably win.a rank.and file ballot. I heard she was the probable alp candidate.if this is correct then the earlier post is wrong
    My prediction alp win probably by more than 5%. I suspect it may have been closer if Mr Lee was contesting

  40. perhaps the local branch members wont like herdavis was selected buy head office but the left got lepington and liverpool in lepington they picked theliverpool cowncilor who could not become mayor plus the local faction disliked federal candadate and he still won

  41. not sure if thats corect the branch members may not like davis but she is a reasonably high profile and they did not like th e federal mp and he still won

  42. Labor head office really must hate the local branches, overriding them both at the state and federal seat. That being said, the Lib candidate isn’t that great either so it basically cancels out. What the Libs’ problem is in this seat is that the margins are significantly overinflated due to Geoff Lee’s popularity and the Olympic Park area is expected to a have a huge swing due to local infrastructure and service grievances. At the very least the booths in Harris Park and Parramatta CBD would flip back to Labor and have margins on par with similar areas in Granville and Winston Hills.

  43. not sure that is right the branch members may not like donna Davis how ever she is mayor and hasa reasonably high profile

  44. Well Dan i understand the faction that has majority support in the branches the soft left which has little union support did not do to badly still have Anne stanly in federal parliament plus nathan hegarty and new liverpool candadate and even got Cameron murphy up through state conference penrith and many other seats were preselected through head ofice but the soft left lacking union support seem to be the only group that makes a big deal about preselection buy the members davis has beenmayor and a lot of the soft left mps eg [paul lynch would struggle to have any profile desbite being a long term mp

  45. minns has been in paramatter moor then any other seat so far was there again today iva he is triying to sure up davis with branch members or he thinks it is winabl

  47. the liberal candadate hear seems very quiet where as donna davis is out with a anowsement evry day labor must be confident they can winn here

  48. A few days ago I saw the Liberals campaigning at Westmead station with more than a month until the election. So purely from my personal experience (admittedly limited) visibility isn’t an issue for them. Whether it pays off to actually campaign to morning commuters at this time is perhaps a different question.

  50. The Labor candidate wouldn’t want to have too many more weeks like this one. Featured on A Current Affair over a botched Council approval issue. Then a damaging story in the SMH about councillor behaviour that required an intervention by Safework NSW.

    Sure, being Lord Mayor provides a bit of profile. But if that council is dysfunctional and unpopular it might count against her.

    Keep an eye on this one.

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