SFF 15.2% vs NAT
Incumbent MP
Philip Donato (Independent), since 2016.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Central west NSW. Orange covers the entirety of the Orange, Cabonne, Forbes and Parkes council areas, with the main centres being in the cities of Orange, Forbes and Parkes.
History
The seat of Orange has existed in the Legislative Assembly since 1859, with the exception of three elections in the 1920s. The seat was a single-member district up to 1880, then a two-member district from 1880 to 1894.
The seat has been a single-member district since 1894. The seat was held by the Country/National Party from 1947 until 2016.
Orange was held from 1941 to 1947 by the ALP’s Robert O’Halloran. He had been one of the members for the district of Eastern Suburbs from 1920 to 1927, but he fell out with Labor leader and Premier Jack Lang, and at the 1927 election he was denied preselection for any of the new single-member districts that replaced Eastern Suburbs.
He held Orange from 1941 to 1947, when he lost to the Country Party’s Charles Cutler.
Cutler was elected Country Party deputy leader in 1958 and leader in 1959. He held that role until his retirement in 1975. He also served as Deputy Premier in the Coalition government from 1965 to 1975.
Cutler’s retirement in 1975 caused a by-election in early 1976. The by-election was won by National Country Party candidate Garry West. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1988 to 1995. Following the government’s defeat, he resigned from Parliament in early 1996.
The 1996 by-election was won by Russell Turner, also of the National Party. Turner was re-elected in 1999, 2003 and 2007.
Turner retired in 2011, and the seat was won by Nationals candidate Andrew Gee. Gee was re-elected in 2015, and stepped down in 2016 to run (successfully) for the federal seat of Calare.
The subsequent by-election was narrowly won by Philip Donato, the candidate of the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers party. Donato was re-elected in 2019.
Donato resigned from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party in 2022 to sit as an independent.
Assessment
Orange is the strongest seat for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers and they should comfortably retain the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Philip Donato | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 24,718 | 49.1 | +49.2 |
| Kate Hazelton | Nationals | 12,987 | 25.8 | -39.8 |
| Luke Sanger | Labor | 5,126 | 10.2 | -13.2 |
| Stephen Nugent | Greens | 2,615 | 5.2 | -1.6 |
| Maurice Davey | Christian Democrats | 1,627 | 3.2 | +0.7 |
| Stephen Bisgrove | Liberal Democrats | 1,037 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Terri Baxter | Independent | 896 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Garry McMahon | Conservatives | 873 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| David O’Brien | Keep Sydney Open | 416 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 1,811 | 3.5 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Philip Donato | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 27,746 | 65.2 | +65.2 |
| Kate Hazelton | Nationals | 14,821 | 34.8 | -36.9 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kate Hazelton | Nationals | 17,460 | 65.1 | -6.7 |
| Luke Sanger | Labor | 9,380 | 34.9 | +6.7 |
Booths in Orange have been split into four parts, along the lines of the four local government areas: Cabonne, Forbes, Orange and Parkes. The Cabonne and Orange council areas have been marked for amalgamation in the near future – Orange covers the urban parts of the new council, with Cabonne covering the rural surrounding areas.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers won the two-candidate-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 62.3% in Forbes to 66.2% in Parkes.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 5.7% in Cabonne to 11.3% in Orange.
| Voter group | ALP prim | SFF 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Orange | 11.3 | 66.0 | 14,432 | 28.7 |
| Parkes | 11.0 | 66.2 | 5,674 | 11.3 |
| Cabonne | 5.7 | 65.5 | 5,453 | 10.8 |
| Forbes | 10.7 | 62.3 | 3,161 | 6.3 |
| Pre-poll | 9.3 | 65.6 | 16,024 | 31.9 |
| Other votes | 13.2 | 62.0 | 5,551 | 11.0 |
Election results in Orange at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers vs Nationals), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, the Nationals and Labor.
Do you think SFF will keep this?
There’s not much reason to expect them not to.
Yes I think Phil Donato as incumbent does have a strong chance of retaining this seat for the SFF, I believe he won with a 10%+ margin at the last state election. This was much stronger than his first 50 vote victory at the preceding by-election and it won’t likely be in play unless the Nationals can field a strong candidate to challenge him.
If Forbes mayor Phyllis Miller or Cabonne mayor Kevin Beatty ran for the Nationals, it’d be made interesting for sure.
Possibly – just their results at state and federal elections since COVID have been bad at best.
Marko, I think most SFF lower house MP’s (Phil Donato and Helen Dalton) are more like Independents than registered party members, and won’t really be impacted by the weakening of their parent party. Phil was a former police prosecutor and Helen polled well running as an independent before joining the SFF.
A good comparison might be Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo, the NXT/centre alliance party is basically dissolved yet she remains popular as a ‘local independent’ character.
Is it likely the SFF will retain most of their current seats where the sitting MP has a profile but not gain any?
I am thinking that the only way for the LNP to have the most seats after this election would be for Nats to make gains from SFF
I think the concern would be more for SFF leader and MLC Robert Borsak, because any drop in SFF vote would mean he fails to reach the required quota threshold to retain his seat. This was the case with Nick Xenephon and his NXT/centre alliance party as their vote plummeted at recent Federal elections.
Nats should gain Murray with Helen Dalton (the former SFF member) now at war with Borzak. That tends to be a trend.
Nats might however struggle anywhere else. Best chance is to link the SFF UH voting record with the Greens where they are almost inevitably in coalition. That wasn’t particularly popular when voters were reminded of it in Upper Hunter.
mod lib,
Nats can’t find a party member who wants to be a candidate for Murray.
https://www.areanews.com.au/story/7829327/letters-unique-approach-for-candidates/
Is the Kirribilli Kid, Ben Franklin, available?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/national-partys-ben-franklin-cites-banjo-paterson-heritage-in-defence-of–going-bush-20150310-14075s.html
His bio no longer claims that he lives in Byron Bay. It now claims that he grew up in Barham, which is in the electorate of Murray.
https://www.nswnationals.org.au/state-team/benfranklin/
I agree with Yoh An. Phil Donato, Roy Butler and Helen Dalton have become their own brands and their name recognition can get them over the line. 2019 was a high watermark for SFF at both the federal and NSW state elections. SFF attracted protest voters in rural NSW.
At the 2022 federal election, there was a huge drop in the primary vote for the SFF senate ticket in NSW. If this happens at the state election, Robery Borsak will (almost certainly) be gone.
The margin in Orange is 15.2%. I expect SFF to hold. Has there ever been a safer minor party seat?
Traeger/Hill Queensland have KAP margins of 24.7 and 22.6 vs ALP respectively.
Agree Marko, I think Andrew Wilkie in Denison (Tasmania) also holds his seat with a 2CP margin >20%.
As long as Labor is unable to win here..normally 60/40 or better 2pp split. And the lnp fail
To campaign properly sff candidates will continue to win
Here
Moderate again we disagree.. Labor cannot win here so it comes down to sff. Helen Dalton and the nats I cannot guess who will win between sff and Dalton.. but I suspect the nats will fail.. exercise guess the primary votes for the first 4 candidates and the proportion that exhaust under opv.
John Hatton – independent for South Coast during the 1970s – was unopposed at least once, if not twice. Can’t get a bigger margin than that!
I wanted to start looking at each electorate to see which parties would run (+ Indies) starting with Albury but things are fast paced in the SFF that it’s tearing itself apart.
News article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-10/nsw-shooters-fishers-and-farmers-party-re-endorse-rob-borsak/101757786
For those not up to speed, there has been ongoing friction between the leader Rob Borsak (MLC) and the other elected members Philip Donato (MP-Orange), Roy Butler (MP-Barwon) and Mark Banasiak (MLC). Remember, Helen Dalton (MP-Murray) has already left the party, according to her, by actions of the leader Rob Borsak.
The key line in the article is this “Orange MP Mr Donato told the ABC he would decide next week if he would continue to represent the party or leave and run as an independent.”
I currently have the following candidates running in Orange:
ALP – Heather Dunn (Source: listed on party website)
NAT – Domenico “Tony” Mileto (Source: NSWEC Candidate Register/listed on party website)
SFF?/IND? – Philip Donato (Source: ABC Article)
Parties I’d expect to field a candidate: GRN, possible AJP
AC/CON and CDP no longer exists, and EFI (ex KSO) I don’t think will run here.
Interesting to see both ALP & NAT campaigning early and Philip’s decision could affect the outcome in this seat. Although, I agree with previous commentators Yoh-An, et al., that he really is a pseudo-independent like the other SFF MP/ex-MP. SFF could run a candidate against him if he goes IND, but his profile should negate this. Time will tell but for now…
2022 Prediction: Donato Retain (whether SFF or IND)
The old adage that a week in politics is a long time… and for the SFF this saga keeps going. Donato quick to confirm he’s now, like Roy Butler (MP-Barwon), contesting the election as an independent.
Related ABC News Article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-12/shooters-leadership-spill-fails/101760140
Amazing that SFF had 3 MPs after the last election and will go into the 2023 Election with no incumbents in the lower house! That’s UAP style falling apart.
Orange. As others has stated sff retain the sff people elected do not act as nutters with guns but as pseudo rural independents who win on that basis.
Not being a shooter will help Donato (and the other 2 ex shooters) get preferences from Labor and Greens even if their primaries slip. But can’t call any of them safe after Mildura and Shepparton
I’d still say that Donato will hold. The SFF is imploding and I doubt a future SFF candidate would win this seat. Also, Donato probably has the biggest minor party margin in the state at 15%.
Normally MPs who quit parties mid-term to become independent or join another party don’t get reelected. Bob Katter and Jacqui Lambie are two exceptions. I expect at least two of the three ex-SFF MPs (Phil Donato, Roy Butler, Helen Dalton) to hold their seats.
Good point about Labor and Greens preferences John. The Liberals, particularly John Howard and Gladys Berejiklian, ripped into Labor for preferencing the SFF in 2019. I wonder if that hurt Labor’s prospects in metropolitan Sydney. I remember the Christchurch mosque mass shootings happened a week before the last state election so I wonder if some voters shied away from a party whose name starts with the word ‘Shooters’.
Agreed Donato needs to outpoll the the national or collect alp.and green preferences to win
The nat needs close to an absolute majority
this will be alot closer this time around without the SFF ticket he might struggle to maintain that lead
If the nats play the 3 former shooters seats as backing Labor they could pull the other 2 back but hard to see that here
At this rate, Phil Donato will be the only ex-SFF MP that will compete against a candidate from his old party.
15% is quite a buffer and he’s been the MP for nearly 7 years. It’s not uncommon for regional/rural MPs who quit that parties and turned independent to retain (e.g. Rob Oakeshott, Bob Katter) unless they got kicked out or left controversially. I stand by my original claim that Phil Donato will retain. Part of me thinks SFF will get >10% PV and do better here than in other rural electorates thanks to the residual SFF supporters or those who are loyal to the party rather than the MP.
@votante this could be interesting considering its a 3 cornered contest. the nats in one corner and Phil donato and he SFF in the others will be interesting to see how much of that is a personal votee and how much a party vote
Donato will see his vote increase. He is popular and the SFF brand is not. Every chance he won’t need preferences.
@Clyde dont be srprised if this ends up being SFF v IND. that would be interesting
can someone tell me what the different parties are preferenceing please
Preferences on HTV cards
SFF – Just Vote 1
Phil Donato – Just Vote 1
Nationals – Just Vote 1
ALP – ALP, GRN, Phil Donato
Greens – GRN, ALP
SFF got a PV of 49% last time. Now that Phil Donato is an independent, we will see a massive swing away from SFF, possibly the largest ever swing away from a party in absolute terms.
How about the smaller parties?
im surprised nationals and SFF havent done a preference deal here
No local knowledge here? I do know an anti Donato 2016 voter who can’t sing his praises more highly for what it is worth. Also almost all members of Nats are said to live in molong (or did). Does anybody know where the branches of SFF in the seat have landed? Borzak is basically a newcastle/sydney/wollongong figure.
@:)
Why would they? The Nationals and SFF abhor each other! In the past, the SFF have directed preferences to Labor.
SFF in Barwon is preferencing the Nationals. It isn’t happening in the other ex-SFF seats. SFF aren’t preferencing anybody elsewhere.
@nicholas the enemy of my enemy is my friend. The incumbent has the advantage here and the nats could use the votes in Barwon and Murray and benefit the shooters here. The nats will finish 1st or 2nd in those seats and gaining two seats and giving the shooters one is better then both getting 0 and in the past they have been up against each other where as here they have common enemy. Yes but in non shooters target seats in exchange for preferences here. Unseating the incumbents should be a joint goal atm as neither benefit if they get reelected
SFF are preferencing the Nats in Murray too.
I don’t know the local mood but could be Dalton’s undoing.
@micheal id say it would be because they know they cant win the seat this election and it will be easier for them to unseat a nat at a future election then to allow an independant to entrench themselves. possibly also payback
they really should be preferencing each other here. at very least if either wins they wont have a strong enough margin as the current one and if he further entrenches himself they wont have a change of winning in 2027 parties who would rather the vote ehaust are doing themselves a diservice as they would definately rprefer one over the other so i think that move is selfish
Sorry, my mistake above. I was meant to say Murray and not Barwon. In Barwon and many other seats, SFF just recommends 1 only.
Perhaps things have changed now that Butler, Dalton, and Donato are out of the party. In parliament, they were friendly with Labor MPs, and hostile towards Nationals MPs. On some occasions, Labor MPs even defended them on points of order.