North Shore – NSW 2023

North Shore (and Manly) would be the perfect breeding ground for a teal movement if we’re looking at federal figures. Kylea Tink won at least 55% 2PP at most booths west of Neutral Bay. Zali Steggall won at least 55% 2PP at all booths in Mosman and Neutral Bay. To be fair, Zali Steggall had incumbency on her side and fought against a controversial Liberal candidate.

I don’t expect a federal-style “teal-slide” at the NSW state election because the dynamics are different. Firstly, NSW LNP is greener than the federal LNP. There may be one or two gains in Metropolitan Sydney at the most. A community-backed independent could win with a campaign on local infrastructure and services. Larissa Penn ran in Willoughby and scored 30% of votes with a campaign centered on the Western Harbour Tunnel and Northern Beaches Link and by being an alternative to a hard-right Liberal.

Felicity Wilson is a moderate small l-liberal, but the federal election showed that voters can still boot out a moderate Liberal in favour of a teal, especially if they’re not seen as willing to stand up against their party to represent local interests.

My calculations has this, on federal figures, a teal seat with a 2PP margin of 9.4%. Thus, this seat would be the second safest teal seat after Manly (third if you count Labor voting areas of Coogee). I would agree that the dynamic of state elections do not favour socially-minded independents. Small-l liberals running as independents, yes, but the fact of the matter is matters such as climate change are not as prevalent down-ballot. However, do not be surprised if you see independent surges in these wealthier suburbs. Pay attention especially to Manly, North Shore & Willoughby (maybe Vaucluse, Wakehurst & the ones in Ku-ring-gai LGA; I suspect Pittwater will be solid Liberal if Rob Stokes stays and Lane Cove is more likely to be a traditional 2PP matchup).

Also, forgot to mention that in North Sydney, the 2PP vote was around 55% for Tink but in Warringah, the vote was in excess of 60%. As mentioned, it goes to show the value of incumbency and the results of botching a campaign.

One thing missed with this seat is that Felicity Wilson is very much on the nose in this electorate and with her branches. Remember that, in the last State Election, she only won Pre-Selection here against Tim James by 1 vote, after a long-standing rumour that she lied on a Stat Dec to win pre-selection for North Shore. She claimed to live in Kirribilli, despite her address at the time being in Epping.

The other issue that Felicity Wilson has is that she is a disciple of the Liberal Militant Left, which was headed up by Michael Photios (yes, it’s him again). This role was supposed to have been moved down to Trent Zimmerman but, given that he is no longer in parliament, Wilson is definitely exposed now.

If Kylea Tink finds a reasonable candidate, this seat is vulnerable. Again, just like with the other Teal Seats, the issue will be fundraising

Two local rumours from nearby Willoughby.
One, that Glady’s fixed it back in circa 2018 so that a few pre-selectors from Willoughby shifted over to North Shore to prevent Tim James winning, but they never got round to switching them back. Might not have caused James boilover for the Willoughby by-election pre-selection but didn’t help.

Second, NSI have a person in mind for Willoughby but they would have to give up their current high profile role in an advocacy group. The NSI website is also oddly quiet on the search in Willoughby.

Only rumours about IND in North Shore seem to be the current Mayoral team from North Sydney Council – they are quite leftist so may not get “Teal” support – and they probably don’t need it to run. Bbetter to avoid being beholden to a support group

I decided to break down the likely 2CP for this electorate from the Redbridge poll:
Primary:
LIB: 33%
ALP: 29%
IND: 24%
GRN: 7%
OTH: 5%
As 2% are undecided and there is no way of knowing what the Others vote may go to, there is around a 4% margin of error for this estimate.
2PP:
LIB 1.4% vs ALP, IND 1.1% vs LIB
This suggests there will be a 16.4% 2PP swing against the Liberals which just doesn’t seem realistic, although on these numbers the Independent could win narrowly if enough preferences flow their way, but with OPV it’s unlikely.

James Mullan, former Independent Councillor on North Sydney Council, will be running for the Greens.

I’ve met him previously and he seems a decent enough bloke. TBH, would almost fit in perfectly with the Teals in his beliefs. North Sydney Bears Tragic as well.

In general I think teals will fail to get over “Just vote 1!” Campaigns and Matt Kean will be all over these electorates for sandbagging if required. I predict zero teal gains.

Godfrey Santer, the current Deputy Mayor for North Sydney, is the ALP candidate here.
Will cast no judgement on his decentness.
Not sure if he follows the Bears or not. The ALP candidate for North Sydney federal electorate certainly did.

NSI announced their Lane Cove candidate, but this seems a better chance. IF the Liberal votes collapsed – which it could do on the North Sydney side but might be held up on the Mosman side – then the vote could split 4 or 5 ways here. Depends if the Teal team finds someone and who they appeal to and if the current Independents on North Sydney Council.

I don’t think Labor or the Greens took this seat too seriously in 2019, although Carolyn Corrigan was a reasonably strong independent yet couldn’t even get close to winning. I think the Liberal vote has a floor of around 40% and the Independent vote has a ceiling of around 30%, which would not be enough for an Independent to win.

Will this seat be hotly-contested?

The Labor candidate was announced relatively early which suggests some interest in this seat. NSI, the same group who launched Kylea Tink, have put forward their ‘teal’ candidate here – Helen Conway.

I just think this seat could be very messy (and if the Redbridge Poll has any accuracy). Really depends on how much the Teal IND – Conway – can bite into the LIB primary, in addition to what occurred in 2019. The biggest swing though might be from LIB to Labor, though hard to tell this directly other than increase in Labor primary. I know the 47% LIB PV from 2019 looks high enough, and that in itself was an 11% swing from 2015, but the national and local dynamics have changed drastically since then, and it’s treacherous for the sitting Liberals around Crows Nest and Cammeray with the Expressway work. The GRN votes will probably increase, but not enough to get into the top two.

Interesting to see the level of strategic voting here – anyone going top vote strategically might already have done it so in 2019.

With OPV, the teal would not preference anyone on her HTV cards because it would suggest partisanship and compromise her perceived independence. The Greens and Labor will preference the teal ahead of the Liberal for sure. If she gets ahead of the Greens and then Labor, then she will be in the 2CP count.

I expect a drop in the vote for Liberal, Labor and Greens. Considering the last independent candidate in North Shore got almost 20% on primaries before the teal-mania of 2022, Helen Conway may have a shot if she exceeds that figure and also beats Labor, following the distribution of Green preferences.

Labor only received 12.3% in 2019. If you think Labor’s primary vote will drop from that, then I’ve got a bridge to sell you (one you can see from this electorate).

Are you suggesting Conway will advocate a just vote 1 strategy? That seems unwise since she will almost certainly need preferences of others to win. Otherwise the preference recommendation decision is now different under OPV than CPV.

Other that the above – I agree with you @Votante. IF Conway can get ahead of Labor (will almost certainly need to improve on the IND 20% from last time). This could be a seat for Kevin Bonham though come election night. Conway could come third but catch Labor on GRN preferences and then catch Liberal.

Liberals on 47% almost there will be a swing away.from. them
Assume 3 to 6 %

With opv usually there is problems to win from behind because of exhausted votes. Should an independent or teal make the final 2 then they can get alp and green preferences about 20% which can be directed. I would say this seat is uncertain esp the libs poll 40 to 42 %

Redbridge Poll had LIB PV at 33% and whilst there is no doubt large MoE on that, I would think in the final wash up it will be closer to 33% than 42%. You can’t just assume standard state-wide swings are going to occur around here. By definition, the higher the starting LIB PV the more there is to escape.

One thing to note is that in VIC state election, eastern Melbourne had already had swings away from Liberals in 2018. This basically didn’t occur in NSW with St. Gladys at the helm in March 2019, though it did to an extent in the 2019 May election with Morrison, and not Turnbull, as PM. There is a large potential element of catch up on the way in many of these state electorates.

Teals rely on at least a plausible veneer of independence so I don’t see why Conway *wouldn’t* have a Just Vote 1 HTV. Even at the federal election their campaign material was basically ‘vote 1 me and the rest how you like’.

Because if there is a high voter exhaustion rate, like there was in North Shore in 2019, then that greatly reduces her chances of winning on Labor and Green preferences. If the Liberal candidate and the Teal IND are putting out a just Vote 1 message, then guess what will happen…..

She can claim to be independent and attract Liberal votes?

The exhaustion rate depends upon the nature of votes left after the first two chosen . Ajp
Ksa and onp.will have a big exhaustion rate. Past contests have show that the alp and greens can direct their preferences.libs on 42% primary is fair enough. Alp and green on 20 to 25% ind on 20 to 30% in the final 2. So remaining 10 to 20% of which there will be a high exhaust rate.

Refer to steps 2 and 3 in this handy “How To” guide.https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1599547587132297216

This seat is uncertain in my
Example and in actuality

@Mick Q – ALP and GRN were combined 23.6% in 2019. Will they go up on a boost in local support or down on strategic voting?

There was already a degree of strategic voting in 2019, IMHO. I’d be very surprised if ALP and GRN were combined were below 25% and not surprised if it’s above 30%. Redbridge had it at 36% when voter was asked about a generic IND.

(PS, I think the subsequent leading question Redbridge asked about a certain type of IND is close to push polling)

I’m really struggling to see how this is in play. The Teal manifesto is about climate, anti corruption body and female representation. NSW Liberal is very strong on climate giving Teals no room whatsoever (Green is about the only party left of Libs on climate). ICAC exists so no votes there (and generally the electorate thinks it has overstepped the mark. And on female representation the sitting Liberal is a moderate female so not a big vote winner there.

There are some other issues mentioned like the freeway works but as mentioned that plays bigger in Crows Nest and Cammaray but those are Willoughby (only tiny slivers of those suburbs in north shore). Let’s also be clear that the electorate will benefit a lot from the freeway being built and there’s also a nice shiny new Metro station going in which is popular in the part of the electorate where the Liberal vote is weakest. People can point at Penn in Willoughby in the by-election but the freeway works are a much bigger deal there, the Liberal candidate was a conservative male who was chosen over the much more locally popular female moderate and Penn has been campaigning on the freeway for years and had much higher profile.

There might be a small swing but anything big enough for the Liberals to actually lose in an electorate where half the voters have ‘Mosman’ in their address and have no real reason to change their votes? No, not remotely feasible.

Greg C, last election and at the by election earlier in 2017, carolyn corrigan was the teal like independent and she campaigned strongly against council mergers which affected mosman.

Although I agree with you that teal campaigns for nsw will not be that relevant in the absence of any local issues. The council mergers are no longer being discussed, and Ms corrigan is not running this time.

The main problem for indies/ teals in this seat is that there are 2 very very different communities of interest in one seat – and the Mosman end is the polar opposite to the Nth Syd end. All that does in the end is benefit the Libs, who comfortably won the 2017 by-election (56/44) with a starting point of 39% primary.
Hard to see any other outcome than Lib hold.

Hi Greg C, I do always like your analysis and I know you are a near local to this seat. The expressway issues are a big issue in Willoughby, but I wouldn’t discount the spill over across the majority of North Sydney Council.

However in the North Sydney thread back in May, you concluded with:
I wouldn’t be surprised if the 2PP ends up being not that much different to 2019.

Just the little mention of an 8% swing to explain away, Actually I think that was 8.7% as there remains an uncorrected error in the Willoughby PPVC.

What’s going to impact this seat is how the Steggall voters vote. Many of them preference Labor 2nd in Federal elections. Will some give Labor a 1st preference or again a preferences – under OPV? At least more than in 2019?

Checked out Helen Conway’s website and some of her social media, and the thing that stands out to me more than HTVs or communities of interest or anything else is that her campaign seems to be a complete joke. Apparently she only announced her candidacy a week ago and the issues she’s apparently running on amount to ‘politics should be more gooder’. like just a cartoon pastiche of what the teal movement, if you can call it that, is all about. https://www.helenconway.com.au/policy

she did get a decent turnout on the weekend for her supporters, but it was a few dozen rather than hundreds, and it’s unclear if they were doing any actual campaigning. Which I doubt, because she has absolutely no real policies to talk to voters about anyway.

@Insider. There’s a possibility that Labor’s primary vote could fall because in seats with teal candidates at the federal and Vic elections, Labor’s primary votes fell, and in Warringah and Mackeller, they fell to single digits.
From memory, most teals, including Kylea Tink, didn’t explicitly give a preference to either major party.

I see that a lot of teals run on a generic platform and unfortunately, it makes them look like a party. If they run on community advocacy or NIMBY or local infrastructure issues like Larissa Penn at the Willoughby By-election, then they could score votes.

Moderate wishful thinking mate.a teal or a similar independent can win. Based on the Federal figures they would.
this is a bridge too far for Labor.
I don’t think opv will save the libs here by necessity. That said a liberal win is possible BUT the result is uncertain

All the candidates have been out and about at the local shopping center. Can’t see why the result will be any different than last election. Labor and Greens do pretty poorly. Some of these votes go to the independent. But the liberals will get 40 to 60% of the primary vote (depending on the booth) and with OPV get 55-60% of the TPP. While North Sydney and Warringah overlap on federal boundaries they represent some of the bluer areas of both seats.

@ Pollster, Agree with you on your analysis. I would say that if the Liberals chose a moderate candidate then the Mosman booths as well as Middle Harbour Northern Beaches booths such as Clontarf, Fairlight etc would have remained blue. I can see best case that the Teals win some booths around North Sydney CBD but cant see them doing as well elsewhere.

@Pollster. The Mosman part of Warringah is the bluer area of that seat, agree, but you’re way off with the North Sydney end. On 2PP at the federal election (where Labor lost the 2PP by 1% or less) Labor won the 2PP at the following booths by at least 53/47 or more: Crows Nest and Crows Nest East, McMahons Point, Neutral Bay and Neutral Bay West, North Sydney, Waverton and Wollonstonecraft. Some of these were off the IND coming 2nd on primary votes, some off Labor coming 2nd on primary, in neither case being that far behind the Liberal candidate.

So I agree with Nimalan, who, whilst agreeing with some of your analysis, actually contradicts the rest of it by predicting the North Sydney end to be where the Teal does best.

The Liberal’s got 46.6% in 2019 – if they get 40% this time I will be very surprised. They then benefited from an extremely hight exhaust rate, which will be a lot lower this year, though still be material. There could easily be a 8-10% swing here, simply because the past results have been close to the top of the cycle for the Liberals here. Wilson has her nose in front, but must panic every time a tree is cut down around the expressway.

Nimalan,
Close to 40% of employed people in North Shore electorate travel to work by public transport.
That’s a quite a lot of voters that are annoyed by Liberal Party incompetence.

@ Watson watch as someone who lives in Victoria so is just an outside observer I actually think the nsw liberals have a good record on public transport compared to their state counterparts for example building second harbour rail crossing
With respect to North Sydney federal electorate I would say Hunters Hill and parts of Lane Cove LGA such as Longueville, Northwood and Riverview are the bluest end. these areas have low population density compared to along the railway line

@Insider Out of interest, how can you see the 2PP by booth for the teal seats?

The AEC publishes the 2PP for each seat at booth level, it does this after the results are known as to who won each seat. The overall 2PP gets added to the electorate page of any seat that didn’t have a Coalition/Labor top finish (i.e. non traditional). But to get the booth level result you have to do a data download, which actually is quite tricky to find. Perhaps our host Ben Raue can advise, as I sure he would have it bookmarked!

@Nimalan. I think you highlight a big disconnect here, partly by being remote from the area and state. Simply selecting and starting any project doesn’t make your government have “a good record on public transport”. In 12 years the only major public transport projects to come on line have been North West rail (which was supposed to be heavy rail but was changed to metro and only services safe Liberal seats), South east light rail, which most people detest and caused amazing disruption, and the B Line buses from the Northern Beaches – I might have missed one but everything else has been toll roads I think. They have buggered the buses and struggle to keep the existing trains running at all, let alone on time with enough drivers.

This government should have built a second line across the harbour and then built outwards from there – instead they went the other way based on a hot headed pre election promise prior to 2011.

Someone said the metro station in Crows Nest is popular – not sure about that – it’s just bringing the need for over development when most people could walk to the existing St. Leonards station anyway or simply caught a bus.

Finally, you are correct with regard the Bluer end of North Sydney electorate, but that’s nothing to do with the North Shore state electorate. The areas you mention in Hunters Hill and Lane Cove will probably return Anthony Roberts in Lane Cove – he better hope so, as not much else will.

I have a blog post that includes maps of the teal vote in these seats.

@Ben Raue
I was just wondering if there was anywhere where I could find the 2PP vote at the booth level in the seats where it wasn’t a traditional 2PP contest?

@Ben it shows the two candidate preferred for seats that are lib vs labor

Ben,
elections.nsw.gov.au has 2PP for any 2 candidates by booth.
https://pastvtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/SG1901/LA/north-shore/TCP

I didn’t make it clear above unfortunately but I meant federal results at the 2022 election

@Ben

There was an Excel file in the AEC Tally Room (i.e. not the place) where they show the 2pp of all booths.

@Insider

I am of the understanding that Renshaw (Labor) won most of the booths but got screwed over by Hunter’s Hill, Northbridge-Castlecrag (Renshaw lives here I think), Longueville-Riverview and Postal Votes. In the neighbouring Warringah, Mosman was Labor’s 2pp weak link. I guess Labor would have won if Greens preferenced Labor over Tink and Hunter’s Hill got chopped off the seat in favour of Neutral Bay and the rest of Chatswood (Laxale in Bennelong would have lost instead though)
I doubt the high Labor 2pp would repeat at 2023 (Lack of effort, too late now, Minns being a bit socially conservative, Dutton/Scomo not present, and other reasons) but Labor (and by extension the Greens, given the progressive nature of the seat) really should try harder in the Lower North Shore overall (especially if the Teals and other INDs flop this time).
I also wonder how a hypothetical State seat centred on St Leonards (Which is cleanly chopped into 3 in the current arrangements) would have gone if Labor and Greens actually tried because that is probably the middle of the Lower North Shore and such seat won’t include Northbridge-Castlecrag, Mosman or Hunter’s Hill (It will probably have Longueville-Riverview though).

@Ben

Link: https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDownloadsMenu-27966-Csv.htm

Two party preferred by polling place (Under First preferences, two candidate preferred and two party preferred)

Thanks, I did some calculations and this seat’s 2PP margin federally would be around LIB 1.5%.

Good work Ben, that’s good analysis to know.

I did something similar for Willoughby and it almost perfectly matched the North Sydney Federal result overall. Which was in the 0.6% to 1.3% margin to Liberal.

Neither state seat will get to this point, most highly likely, but it’s a good reference point.

It’s worth clarifying that there is two different statistics on the AEC website – two party preferred is always Labor vs Coalition while two-candidate-preferred varies from seat to seat. So in the teal seats the 2CP is usually IND vs LIB while the 2PP is LIB vs ALP.

If you go to results.aec.gov.au you can find the results in HTML form but there’s also pages labeled ‘downloads’ which have CSV downloads – if you’re doing proper analysis you’d want to go that way.

The explanation of a better liberal vote.. is that Mosman is included here.. federally Mosman is included with Manly. But Ben’s calculations suggest narrow margin 1.5%. The question arises is the non liberal. Left of centre vote as strong.? Dies opv make a difference? are there candidate differences? Alp global vote at this election is 3 to 5% higher..
I would say this seat is uncertain …. . Either this seat or Willoughby I suspect will be lost by the liberals.. it is possible both it is also possible the liberals retain both

This is the story of about half a dozen seats on.the North Shore. It is possible.. that Manly; Wakehurst. Pittwater and North shore and Willoughby may elect a non Labor independent there are probably other seats on the North shore which fall in this category.. from the liberal party view point these are ALL a must hold this is uncertain