GRN 11.5% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Jenny Leong, since 2015.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Newtown covers parts of the City of Sydney and Inner West council areas, stretching from Redfern in the east to Lewisham in the west. Newtown covers Camperdown, Chippendale, Darlington, Enmore, Erskineville, Lewisham, Newtown, Redfern, Stanmore and parts of Marrickville and Petersham.
Redistribution
Newtown lost the remainder of Surry Hills to Sydney, gained the remainder of Erskineville from Heffron and also gained Lewisham from Summer Hill. These changes reduced the Greens margin from 13.8% to 11.5%.
History
The seat of Newtown was a new seat created in 2015 primarily out of eastern parts of Marrickville. The seat of Marrickville had been continuously held by Labor since 1910, but had become a Labor-Greens marginal in the last twenty years.
In 1995, the Liberal Party was pushed into third place behind the No Aircraft Noise party in Marrickville, who polled over 23% of the primary vote. The Greens came second after preferences in 1999, and the Liberals never again came in the top two in Marrickville.
When Premier Bob Carr announced his retirement in 2005, Labor MP Andrew Refshauge also announced his retirement.
The ALP ran Carmel Tebbutt, a former Marrickville councillor who had been a Member of the Legislative Council since 1998 and a minister since 1999. The Greens ran Deputy Mayor of Marrickville, Sam Byrne. The ALP’s 10.7% margin was cut to 5.1% in the by-election.
Tebbutt was re-elected in 2007, winning with a 7.5% margin over the Greens, less than in the 2003 election, but more than in the 2005 by-election. Tebbutt served as Labor deputy leader and Deputy Premier from 2008 to 2011.
At the 2011 election, Tebbutt again faced strong opposition from the Greens. Her margin was cut to 0.9%.
The 2015 redistribution created a notional Greens seat. Greens candidate Jenny Leong defeated Labor candidate Penny Sharpe, who had been a member of the Legislative Council since 2005, and returned to the upper house following the election.
Leong was re-elected in 2019 with an increased margin.
Assessment
Newtown is a safe Greens seat. The redistribution has pushed the seat into slightly less friendly territory for the Greens, but it’s likely booths in Lewisham will perform better for the Greens now that they’ve been added to a Greens seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jenny Leong | Greens | 21,326 | 46.0 | +0.5 | 44.5 |
| Norma Ingram | Labor | 12,202 | 26.3 | -4.4 | 28.5 |
| Rohan Indraghanti | Liberal | 6,730 | 14.5 | -3.3 | 14.1 |
| Laura White | Keep Sydney Open | 3,295 | 7.1 | +7.1 | 7.4 |
| Michelle Buckmaster | Animal Justice | 1,105 | 2.4 | +0.2 | 2.5 |
| Hugh Watson | Sustainable Australia | 967 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 1.8 |
| Aaron Le Saux | Small Business | 687 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.2 |
| Informal | 1,004 | 2.1 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jenny Leong | Greens | 24,849 | 63.8 | +4.6 | 61.5 |
| Norma Ingram | Labor | 14,078 | 36.2 | -4.6 | 38.5 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Norma Ingram | Labor | 28,960 | 77.7 | +3.2 | 78.8 |
| Rohan Indraghanti | Liberal | 8,329 | 22.3 | -3.2 | 21.2 |
Booths in Newtown have been split into three parts:
- Central – Camperdown, Enmore, Erskineville and Newtown
- East – Chippendale, Darlington and Redfern
- West – Lewisham, Petersham and Stanmore
The Greens won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.6% in the west to 65.8% in the centre.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.1% in the centre to 16.2% in the west.
| Voter group | LIB prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 11.1 | 65.8 | 13,000 | 25.5 |
| East | 15.6 | 60.2 | 10,236 | 20.0 |
| West | 16.2 | 56.6 | 9,376 | 18.4 |
| Other votes | 14.7 | 64.7 | 11,968 | 23.4 |
| Pre-poll | 14.3 | 57.1 | 6,491 | 12.7 |
Election results in Newtown at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Labor), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Greens, Labor and the Liberal Party.
Anyone know how Liberal preferences split between Labor, Greens and no preference?
The Libs ran dead here in 2019 with an open ticket and only recommending a 1 next to their candidate. Even then the Greens first preference is too close to 50% that they would still win even if the Libs put Labor ahead.
If I interpreted the results correctly, in 2019, 69% of Liberal votes exhausted, 16% went to the Greens and 15% went to Labor.
This will be the “Greenest” seat in Australia in 2023. The Greens could surpass 50% on primary votes alone in Newtown with KSO out of the picture. I can’t see the Greens gaining extra seats.
If the NSW Greens want to be more competitive in more seats, they have to a more formal structure with an official leader. Jenny Leong can very well fit being the leader.
Greens NSW has a very formal structure, but all the way since 1991 have rejected having a parliamentary leader, for a number of reasons including objection to how the federal leadership is elected and dislike of how the federal party room operates. The issue, especially how one would be elected, is internally coming to a head now. It’s more likely that there’d be co-leaders than a single leader. If there was a single leader I think Cate Faehrmann would be more likely to get the job.
Jenny should be so proud of the result here in Newtown! It’s now the seat with the highest Greens primary in the entire country, overtaking even Adam Bandt himself in Melbourne. She wins it in her own right with well over 50% of the vote before preferences are even counted. Truly phenomenal effort.