Manly – NSW 2023

I agree with the assessment. This could fall if an engaging teal or local independent candidate runs and has the backing of Zali Steggall. So far, I don’t know anyone who will contest as an independent. If there isn’t one, then I expect the trend of wealthy, small-l liberal seats “turning left” to happen here as well. The Liberal primary vote will go below 50% and the Greens (and maybe Labor) will increase their primary vote.

Liberals really need Christine Forester to enter parliament and this seat prime considering this is her brothers territory and I believe she lives here as well? otherwise she could run in Vaucluse where a member is retiring however I don’t condone parachuting candidates.

”Teals” had this before 2007 but Baird took it, but Baird was fairly moderate compared to many.

I doubt James Griffin is retiring. I believe Christine Forster lives south of the harbour and she’s a better fit for Vaucluse. She used to be a City of Sydney councillor and she sought preselection for the Wentworth By-election in 2018. Wentworth covers Vaucluse.

How does Mr Griffin line up in liberal factions? I would have thought here was teal central

James Griffin is from the Left. Very much at odds to the Federal Seat. He is very much the ideal fit for the seat.

Unless the Teals run uber hard on this seat, I dont see it falling.

I think the Liberals will likely lose this seat within the decade, assuming the trends in the northern/eastern suburbs continue. If not to a teal, probably to the Greens; in fact I would say this is probably the last Lower House seat the Greens can possibly win. Lismore, Summer Hill & Heffron probably won’t fall anytime soon & <15% of the vote is probably the highest they will ever be able to get.

Hawkeye..I do know much about the liberal party.. as not my side of politics thank.you.for yr insight

Disagree @Boof Head and the reason is because of two reasons:

1. James Griffin is effectively a Teal candidate in Liberal Clothing. The only thing that he has had issues with in the local area is the issue around the Ferries, which largely got taken out of his control by the decision to get rid of the old Freshwater-class Ferries. Apart from that, he has been a pretty harmless MP.
2. We are discussing the assumption of the Teal Movement running in NSW. I don’t think Simon Holmes a Court would have the resources to go again, especially so soon after a Federal Campaign. Given the larger number of seats in a smaller area and the fact that Victoria comes just before, I think he may not even bother with Teals in NSW. Remember that part of of the reason he ran as well was his personal vendetta against Josh Frydenberg.

This means that for Manly to fall, a strong local candidate would need to run. The only person of note in the local area would could consider this now would be Councillor Candy Bingham and her profile is not big enough.

I decided to break down the likely 2CP for this electorate from the Redbridge poll:
Primary:
LIB: 32%
ALP: 25%
IND: 22%
GRN: 11%
OTH: 7%
As 3% are undecided and there is no way of knowing what the Others vote may go to, there is around a 4% margin of error for this estimate.
2PP:
LIB 2.3% vs ALP, IND 0.5% vs LIB
I don’t think a 12.3% 2PP swing is too likely here just like Lane Cove. If the Independent can get ahead of the Labor candidate they can win, but given OPV they will find it hard.

This is the seat I think is most likely to go teal but I don’t think they’ll quite get there because of OPV. My prediction on primary votes is LIB 40%, IND 32% and on 2CP, LIB 0.5% vs IND.

There’s not really a strong campaign in this seat as of yet, Joeline Hackman doesn’t have a large profile or a large following and won’t have too much time to campaign, given she was only announced 4 months out. I think a factor that may be underestimated is the popularity of the federal Albanese government perhaps bringing left leaning voters toward Labor rather than a teal. The Liberal vote here is still reasonably high and has room to drop, although James Griffin seems fairly moderate and non-controversial, more so than Anthony Roberts. It all depends on how the teals campaign.

It was absolutely fantastic that no teals (fake independents) won at the Victoria state election. Now it is NSW’s turn. It will be harder but possible. The Liberals need to be pragmatic and they must put a moderate platform to the state election. Even should they lose government, I can see them holding seats like this.

Steggals support won’t necessarily translate here.

Obviously the teals will do worse in the state election than the federal one due to OPV and Morrison/Dutton being hated a lot more than Perrottet. Whether they do worse or better compared to the Vic state election is a bit more uncertain. One thing that makes NSW different from Vic is the fact that the Libs are the one in government unlike in Vic which would benefit the teals in NSW but on the other hand the NSW Libs are a lot more moderate than the Vic Libs, which might as well be the state branch of the UAP run by religious fundamentalists, even with a hard right leader.

@Dan M, I think a teal could reach the 30’s in this seat and the Liberal vote could drop a bit more than in Victoria, notably Manly has a strong streak of independence in the past. However due to OPV and a reasonably popular MP, I see the Liberal vote being between 40-45% and James Griffin holding on. The federal election wasn’t really voters voting for Steggall, she has a decent personal vote in this area and is reasonably popular but I feel it was more the unpopularity of Morrison and horrible candidate Katherine Deves. A new teal independent in Warringah would still have won in the absence of Steggall and Deves but only by around 3% and the Liberals would have won the 2CP in Mosman. The real driving factor behind Steggall’s incredibly high 2CP vote was Abbott’s unpopularity in 2019 and then Deves’ unpopularity in 2022 combined with the Morrison factor, there’s a reason moderate Liberals did so much better even if they lost. In Warringah, the Liberal senate vote held up at around 42% which I think will be close to the floor for James Griffin – he should get across the line even if it becomes very close.

The claim that the Teals are “fake independents” I have never seen substantiated. It is a hollow and meaningless claim given that “independent” does not imply any particular views or ideology.

Nsw icac Barilaro inquiry also
Suggest the nsw libs are more corrupt than Victoria. Look what happened to Labor in 2011
When they were seen as corrupt. The 2pp was 66% lib alp
33%
This corruption issue is swirling
Round the liberals also there vaunted competence is taking a hit. Just relatively small.things but show . Parking a mess in Parramatta cbd no statement of the police minister after the
Bashing of Danny lim the toilets
Not functioning at St James station for 4 years and nothing done. Transport issues all over the place. Etc

Ignoring the clear troll attempt by Mick Q for a moment, the Federal Results for Warringah are genuine outliers, especially as the State Seat of Manly has consistently out-performed the L4L Booths since 2011 and that speaks to the relative unpopularity of the Federal Liberal Party. The Federal Candidate (Abbott and Deves) were majorly out-of-step in the seat and gifted Steggall easy wins in the seat.

What is particularly interesting is two things:
1. It is December, 4 months before the election and there is still no announcement of a candidate to run in Manly. The Teal Movement were a lot more organised for the Federal Campaign. For a State Election, you would want to get your candidate in before Christmas, as Christmas to Australia Day is pretty much a write-off for campaigning. The Teals would likely be wanting to pick up a candidate from Regan’s group on NBC or Candy Bingham but, still no announcement
2. I come back to the fundraising issue that they will have, that they cannot rely on SHAC nearly as much as they did. The numbers that did come out for Climate 200 and SHAC showed that they sank approximately $1m for each campaign. That can’t happen this time around because the limit on donations is around $25,000.

As mentioned before, James Griffin has been relatively popular in the seat and pretty much covers off the Teal Vote anyway. There will be some natural attrition of vote but I still see Griffin holding up at this stage.

Agree Nicholas, I don’t think you can describe the ‘teal’ independents as a fake grouping because they all have different views. When the so called ‘omnibus’ workplace relations bill was introduced and debated in federal Parliament, the teals put forward several amendments individually and they all voted differently on the bill and its component packages (some sided with Labor whilst others were opposed and voted with the Coalition).

In response to Mick, I agree with Hawkeye that your claims are overblown somewhat. Whilst the NSW Coalition has displayed signs of obvious corruption, I would say it is less ‘severe’ compared to the dying days of NSW Labor pre-2011. Current polls show Labor with a narrow lead only (barely cracking 53% 2PP) vs 60%+ for the Coalition leading up to 2011.

Also, the NSW Coalition is still performing quite well with service delivery. Sure, there are issues/conflicts relating to public service operations such as staffing for public transport and lack of new schools but overall, this aspect is handled better than NSW Labor during their final term in office.

@Hawkeye The teals have selected Joeline Hackman to run for Manly. The donation cap for a single donor is $3,300 and the spending cap per Independent candidate is $198,700.

First I have heard of the independent is here so not as high profile as some of the federal contenders

As has been mentioned Manly has voted independent before but expect Libs to hold this with a local MP who isn’t on the nose

Did a scan of Joeline Hackman. Has been involved with a couple of NPO’s throughout her time here. Marketing Executive background. TBH, haven’t really seen much of her and there was very minimal fanfare about the announcement.

I’m with Bazza. Fairly lacklustre announcement, given the timing of the event.

The reason I call them “fake independents” is simply because 90% of them are backed by Labor/Greens voters. Peda Credlin on Sky News says only 16% of the “teal” voters recall voting Liberal in previous elections.

Some of the teals are supportive of a Green New Deal which I’m not totally opposed to, it is more left-wing than Labor’s current policy. They are more like the greens on climate.

Besides the specifically wanted the Morrison government out. If they were “real” independents. Then why didn’t any high profile “teals” run against Labor mp’s or Labor seats? Dai Le isn’t a teal. And I would call her a real independent.

If the NSW “teals” are going to use the “vote the coalition out” argument. Then they are basically indirectly supporting a Labor government. Or at least hold the balance of power and some of the things they ask for might not be pleasing to the coalition, But I could see Perrottet more inclined to work with them than Morrison would have.

The only remote thing giving these “teals” a chance is the fact Perrottet is a more conservative liberal. But even he has shown he is willing to compromise with the moderates and keep the broad church together. If Matt Kean was leader now. The “teals” wouldn’t stand a chance.

As others have noted. There is a strong incumbent here. And unless Tony Abbott or Katherine Deves is the Liberal candidate here or the Liberals go Trumpish before the next state election. This should hold for the Liberals, Possibly with the “teal” NOT making it 2nd place.

I am not a troll. I am real
I.consult no one except my self
In posting I am not a paid employee of the alp .of course it is fair comment to disagree with my views. I am a critical alp member as I suspect is the case with Hawke eye in respect of the liberal party
My level of knowledge of the internals of the libs. Is much inferior to Hawkeye. The question is how much of my. Comment. Is true. In terms.of emphasis and.events. re electoral matters. The opv bonus for the libs.is approx 8%.
60 less.52 .. 2023.will.be the closest election since 2007 with a real chance of.victory for.labor
I expect a uneven.6% anti.labor swing. This all.things being. Even.suggests the liberals cannot be sure of victory here. If people who normally vote alp
Green or any of.the other left of centre choose. To vote tactically then.thr.teal could well win
Opv benefits the party.who polls most primary votes. This could well be the teal. It is. Very hard to win.from.behind. only cases of greens and.labor managing.this in 3 seats

Typo anti liberal swing

Dan. The teals can never win in their own right.they take up t
10% off the alp and greens votes where their normal voters
Chose to vote tactically. Their.best vote was in..Warrigal
60/40 but.labor still
Polled less than.a notional.majority
This does. Not make them fake
Independents

Daniel T –

“It was absolutely fantastic that no teals (fake independents) won at the Victoria state election. Now it is NSW’s turn. It will be harder but possible.”

“The reason I call them “fake independents” is simply because 90% of them are backed by Labor/Greens voters. Peda Credlin on Sky News says only 16% of the “teal” voters recall voting Liberal in previous elections.”

“If the NSW “teals” are going to use the “vote the coalition out” argument. Then they are basically indirectly supporting a Labor government. Or at least hold the balance of power and some of the things they ask for might not be pleasing to the coalition”

Pushing some sort of agenda much? At least be honest about it and not hide behind something you don’t get the nuance of.

It doesn’t matter how you label them; if someone isn’t a member of a party and broadly attract voters who have historically voted a certain way, that doesn’t make them not independent.

There can only be so many points of view on a particular topic and someone not aligned to a party has no requirement to be supportive or not of a particular party’s success or otherwise.

You’re also missing that there is a move away from the major political parties. People increasingly do not vote for a major party and will do so, if they feel there is an option for them.

Agree G, in fact Dai Le was a former Liberal member and contested a few elections as a Liberal candidate before defecting.

I noticed that in federal parliament, she sides more often with the coalition on most issues and legislation compared to some of the teals who are split 50/50.

Dai le is an independent liberal who only won because Labor stuffed up their candidate selection..think she would have lost under opv. Her problem is
She is a conservative in a fundamental alp seat. There will
Most probably be a correction
Next election. Here is a teal wins the could be around for 8 years or more.. another uncertain seat

There are traditional alp VS lib or nat seats with a swing to Labor loss of sitting mps at least some will be won by Labor.
Further out the scandal seats like Monaro Drummoyne and Kiama will be difficult to hold.
Then you have what I call the uncertain seats eg Riverstone Camden Goulburn Badgerys Creek and the roughies Balmain Port Macquarie Manly.etc this makes a alp win highly likely.

Mick, if Dai Le moderates her image and focuses her efforts more on building community links, she could end up retaining the seat for a while. But it will be harder for her as a conservative holding a natural Labor leaning district, because she could easily be tied to federal leader Dutton and his support for unpopular social issues whereas holding a local council seat or even mayoral role (like Gordon Bradbery in Wollongong)

@Yoh An and Mick, Labor could very easily stuff up their candidate preselection again in 2025 which would significantly help Dai Le retain her seat.

I think they won’t and as an alp
Member. Some of the state seat of Fairfield overlaps Fowler I will do my best to ensure they
Pick a competent Labor candidate and of course assist
That candidate to win.

I still doubt a “teal wave” at state election. There may be one teal win at most. The teal threat has been overhyped ever since the federal election. Not every independent candidate in a Liberal heartland seat with an army of volunteers, a teal theme, a grassroots campaign and possibly Climate 200’s backing will become the next Kylea Tink or Zali Steggall.

Zali Steggall was quite an outlier in 2019 and 2022. She was well-known as an Olympian, which probably boosted her personal vote. She was up against Tony Abbott – a religious conservative MP in a small-l Liberal seat and had a huge role to play in the the much-hated, bipartisan, revolving door of PMs during the 2010s. They couldn’t be any more different.

Methinks that there’s strong support for green, socially liberal Liberals. This could explain why the 2PP was a lot narrower in Dave Sharma’s and Trent Zimmerman’s seats in 2022 (53% to 54%) than in Tony Abbott’s seat in 2019 (57%).

Don’t need a teal wave all they
Need to do is outpoll Labor and
Liberal.

Labor candidate has thrown the towel in (not like they had a chance here anyway)! Liberals almost certain to hold whilst Labor are floundering here.

Was down at Manly Oval on Sunday for some cricket and there was a very small gathering of teal supporters in the Corso. Not really a lot of fanfare, especially given it was Markets Time down there.

The push from the Teals has been very quiet, while James Griffin has been very active. It is very much unlike the Federal Election when there was a lot of fanfare.

Still early doors and a long way to go but, with the win for James Griffin in returning the ferries and the lack of Teal fanfare, I think he is currently in front.

I wonder if ALP will come 4th

Labor will come 3rd, Greens aren’t getting more votes, They are left-wing, The Greens will vote for the teal more likely.

If the teals don’t win Manly then they won’t win elsewhere.

Ian I would not be sure of that but possible teal ind wins will be
Manly Wakehurst North Shore
Willoughby Pittwater and Davidson it maybe all it maybe some it may be none.. Labor and the Greens will tactically vote.. then there will be about 20% between them to potentially preference the non liberal candidate. Of course if a teal or independent outpolls the liberal candidate then they win too.

Highest risk teal seat is Willoughby in my opinion, but I still think that Tim James can hold on.

I am curious if the teal wave will roll into any ALP seats?

Maybe Coogee if they end up running someone, but honestly it doesn’t seem like they’ll touch it or Maroubra.

There should be. They like to pretend they’re independent but clearly just anti-liberal tools of the labor party.

Assistant Minister – there isn’t a Teal backed candidate running in Willoughby.

Penn ran in 2019 and got 9.9%. Someone stated on the Wollondilly thread that IND’s don’t go that well second time around in a general election. Unfortunately for her, the way the Government selected the timing of the Feb 2022 by-elections (Federal election looming and very short campaign) cruelled her chances. People forget that when she got close on the by election there was no Labor candidate.

Across the Willoughby state electorate in the Federal election, the ALP vote was 21%. Not that many voted strategically then and I doubt they will in Willoughby in March to get Penn over the line. The Northern beaches seats are better Teal chances, where the tactical voting in Warringah and Mackellar can be replicated.

There isn’t a teal as of yet… teal here is a misleading term that I probably have erroneously used. “Community independent” or some other similar flowery title might be more suitable to use.

No Problem.

Penn is basically a single issue Independent. Given that Tim James lives within the electorate and won a local pre-selection, I’d be happy to call him a Community candidate as well. The Greens and Labor candidates in Willoughby are locals too, supported by their local party members. I think we should call all the candidates “community candidates”.

The only difference between an IND and a party candidate is just that – most are members of a Registered Political party under the relevant Act, Independents aren’t. They all just start off as normal people.

Yeah, the reason I said Manly rather than Willoughby is because Penn is not a teal unlike the others but a high-profile community independent.

From what I have heard (probably need a correction), the ALP Candidate has quit the campaign, citing internally bullying within the party.