ALP 1.8%
Incumbent MP
Janelle Saffin, since 2019. Previously member of the Legislative Council 1995-2003, federal member for Page 2007-2013.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Northern NSW. The seat of Lismore covers the entirety of Lismore, Kyogle and Tenterfield council areas, and western parts of the Byron and Tweed council areas. The seat covers the towns of Lismore, Murwillumbah and Kyogle, and stretches as far west as Mingoola.
Redistribution
Lismore expanded to the east, taking in Federal and Wilsons Creek from the neighbouring seat of Ballina. This change increased the Labor margin from 1.4% to 1.8%.
History
The seat of Lismore was first created in 1894, and has existed for most of that period, and continuously since 1927. It had been dominated by the Country/National Party from 1927 until 2019, when Labor won the seat.
The seat first existed from 1894 to 1904, when it was abolished. It was restored in 1913, but in 1920 it was merged with the neighbouring seat of Byron. Byron became a three-member district covering the former districts of Byron, Clarence and Lismore.
In 1927, Lismore was restored, and was won by Country Party candidate William Missingham, who had held one of the seats in Byron since 1922. Missingham held the seat until his death in 1933.
At the 1933 Lismore by-election, the seat was won by William Frith, one of three Country Party candidates standing. Firth held the seat until the 1953 election. As he had turned 70 prior to that election, Country Party rules allowed multiple candidates to stand, and Frith was defeated by fellow Country Party candidate Jack Easter.
Easter retained his seat with ease in 1956. At the 1959 election, he was challenged by independent candidate Clyde Campbell, and held onto the seat by only two votes. A court decision saw a Lismore by-election called for later in 1959.
At the by-election, Campbell and Easter were both endorsed by the Country Party. The ALP ran Keith Compton, who won 47% of the primary vote. Despite the two Country Party candidates polling a majority of the vote, enough of Campbell’s preferences leaked to Compton to give him the seat.
Compton retained the seat in 1962, and lost in 1965 to Country Party candidate Bruce Duncan.
Duncan held the seat throughout the 1970s as the party became the National Country Party. In 1982, the party changed its name to the National Party. Duncan objected to the name change, and resigned from the party. While he sat as an independent, he was not opposed by the National Party in 1984, when he was re-elected as an independent. He retired at the 1988 election.
Bill Rixon won Lismore for the National Party in 1988. He held it comfortably over the next decade, and retired in 1999. He was succeeded in Lismore by fellow National Thomas George, who held the seat for the next twenty years.
George retired in 2019, and Labor candidate Janelle Saffin won the seat. Saffin had previously held a seat in the state upper house for eight years and had held the overlapping federal seat of Page during the term of the previous Labor government from 2007 to 2013.
Assessment
Lismore is a very marginal seat. It is also more complex because Labor only narrowly outpolled the Greens in 2019, whereas in 2015 the Greens narrowly outpolled Labor (and went on to lose the two-candidate-preferred count narrowly). It seems likely that the election of a Labor MP will see the left vote at least partly consolidated behind Saffin, but it’s still worth watching the Greens here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Austin Curtin | Nationals | 19,104 | 39.7 | -2.8 | 39.2 |
| Janelle Saffin | Labor | 12,328 | 25.6 | 0.0 | 25.4 |
| Sue Higginson | Greens | 11,693 | 24.3 | -2.1 | 25.0 |
| Greg Bennett | Independent | 2,530 | 5.3 | +5.3 | 5.1 |
| Alison Waters | Animal Justice | 1,184 | 2.5 | +0.9 | 2.5 |
| David Taylor | Sustainable Australia | 742 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.6 |
| Paul Collits | Conservatives | 564 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.1 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 1,508 | 3.0 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Janelle Saffin | Labor | 21,856 | 51.3 | +1.6 | 51.8 |
| Austin Curtin | Nationals | 20,710 | 48.7 | -1.6 | 48.2 |
Booths in Lismore have been split into five areas. Polling places in the Kyogle, Tenterfield and Tweed council areas have been grouped together. Polling places in the Lismore council area have been split in two parts: Lismore North and Lismore South. Lismore South covers the town of Lismore itself, while Lismore North also covers the small part of the Ballina council area within the seat.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of five areas, ranging from 53.4% in Lismore South to 69% in Lismore North. The Nationals polled 53% in Kygle and 67% in Tenterfield.
The Greens came third, just behind Labor on primary votes, with a primary vote ranging from 12% in Tenterfield to 46.7% in Lismore North.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Lismore South | 22.3 | 53.4 | 12,154 | 24.4 |
| Tweed | 30.0 | 54.6 | 5,605 | 11.3 |
| Lismore North | 46.7 | 69.0 | 4,897 | 9.8 |
| Kyogle | 21.3 | 47.1 | 2,770 | 5.6 |
| Tenterfield | 12.0 | 33.1 | 1,481 | 3.0 |
| Pre-poll | 20.7 | 47.4 | 15,808 | 31.7 |
| Other votes | 24.8 | 50.8 | 7,098 | 14.3 |
Election results in Lismore at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and the Greens.
Weird one: electorate/seat betting has now disappeared from Sportsbet.
I did however pick up Labor at $2 for Lismore. Not sure if it will be back.
$2 Labor in Lismore seems like a good deal. I did put some $ on it. it seems to have now been suspended and the rest of Electorates seems to have disappeared.
Sportsbet also had Independent win in Cabramatta at $51, I tried put some $ on it but midway the odds were reduced to $14. Missed by seconds.
ys some beting are suspeneded for whatever reason
haha i put $10 on donald trump back in 2015 at $1000
admin is it possible you can create a comments section on the main page for elections? so we can discuss general election talk?
Speaking of election betting, hope you all got on the Greens to win Ryan at $34 when I suggested it here: https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2022/ryan2022/comment-page-1#comment-761381
Plenty laughed at the prospect of the Greens picking it up at the time. “imagine being deluded enough to think that the Liberal party has any chance of losing this seat…” said one. Nothing compared to the flack I copped on Pollbludger for suggesting it was a possibility. Certainly the best return I’ve ever had, although I don’t bet often so that’s not really saying much. My only regret is not putting more on it lol. Sportsbet (and the others) really could use a psephologist or two on their payroll to set them straight because they’re often way off. Remember when they paid out early on a Labor win at the 2019 Fed Election?
I didn’t get it at $34 but I did happen to get it when it was around $5.
As for this seat, I really cannot see it being lost by Labor so the current $1.25-1.30 looks quite generous to me. But that’s purely on the basis of history of seats facing disaster delivering a swing to the incumbent. The federal seat of Page had a fairly significant Coalition swing which I similarly attribute to this effect (and hence work against them here) but I am curious if there could be any other explanation which may benefit the Nationals here.
I’m getting the impression from this post, and others, that @Firefox, you are quite a partisan person – in support of The Greens. There is nothing wrong with that, but you seem to be very salty, very angry…and at what? Especially on your comments about Balmain. Is something bothering you?
Onto the seat itself, Lismore should be an ALP retain, with a healthy swing towards incumbent Janelle Saffin. She has done a lot for the flood-battered community. Saffin is quite well know, and I have heard that the Nationals candidate is running quite a lack-lustre campaign – or so I have heard. Saffin is a good local member, and she will do well to retain the seat.
@Firefox, I had Ryan and Griffith for the Greens at the election and got paid as well. Was convinced at least one of the three inner-city seats would be a Greens pick up but was hugely surprised that all were swept. That being said, I am not convinced Lismore will end up going the same way in this state election. Not until there is a drastically more favourable redistribution in the Greens favour.
@firefox it will be between nats and labor. that was because the election was people not wanting the coalition due to incumbency of the govt. here the incumbent is labor and will benefit from the left vote increase. @seq there wont be a favourable redistribution here for the greens because all 3 north east corner seats are under quota and will need to expand west and south if anywhere. the only one of these seats that will benefit the greens will be tweed which will be forced to tke in labor and greens territory. that will have the effect of turning both lismore and ballina back to the nats/liberals as they will have to take in more national voting areas and in 2027 will be swing back to them most likely if labor and greens form a minority govt there will be the anti-govt vote
I think Labor will cement its grip on the left of centre vote in any of the 3 corner contests where they have an incumbent at this election. Particularly in Lismore, there’s a somewhat genuine fear of exclusion order issues seeing the Nats win again, and Janelle Saffin is one of the non-hostile Labor Left MPs (like Fiona Phillips and Susan Templeman) who Green voters will be happier to back than say, Terri Butler or Jacqui Trad. Not to mention the swings towards incumbents in disaster struck areas, and the suggestions in this thread that Nat voters may tactically vote Labor to keep Greens out.
I think Greens should have put the Lismore campaign energy into Tweed. Anywhere Greens have a credible story on how they can win the seat (e.g. Local government results in South Coast and Kiama), plus an LNP incumbent, is a happier hunting ground for Greens in an election with an LNP incumbent seeking a 4th term. I think Greens may well pick up South Coast but even just retaining Balmain with no new seats shouldn’t be considered a bad result.
@joh the tactical vote idea won’t eventuate nats will probly finish 1st
“I’m getting the impression from this post, and others, that @Firefox, you are quite a partisan person – in support of The Greens. There is nothing wrong with that, but you seem to be very salty, very angry…and at what? Especially on your comments about Balmain. Is something bothering you?”
***
I’m really not sure how you totally misinterpreted my positive, upbeat and passionate posts and managed to end up at that conclusion, but no, that could not be further from the truth. Since the wonderful successes for the Greens at the federal election, my political mood can best be summed up by one word – vindication.
And while it’s a bit off topic, I just watched my beloved footy team get up for their first win of the season, so I’m feeling decidedly anti-salty atm lol. And I say a bit off topic because there was an added bonus to the win – the team we beat just happens to be a certain former Prime Minister’s team… so if anyone is a little bit salty right now it would be Scomo and his Sharkies, among others…
Anyways… as for Lismore, it’s a tough one to get a handle on as it’s pretty diverse and was devastated pretty badly in the floods, especially the town of Lismore itself. Not long before that, large parts of it were devastated by bushfires.
Saffin may be a nice enough person but the problem is that she is part of a party – Labor – which is committed to more coal, oil, and gas, and is thus making the climate crisis worse.
Oh, and it’s no secret that I am unashamedly of the progressive left and am proud to be a member of the NSW Greens. 🙂
@firefox australia produce a very small amount and even if we were to stop tomottow it will make 0% difference, greens will finish 3rd. even if they finish second labor preference will leak to nats and get them up that ship has sailed
“Australia extracts a very small amount of coal and gas.”
“The Australian economy and energy grid squarely depends on the continued sale of coal and gas.”
Just for everyone’s sake, these two ideas cannot coexist.
“australia produce a very small amount and even if we were to stop tomottow it will make 0% difference”
***
We really produce a lot of emissions, especially for our population’s relatively small size. Australia’s emissions per capita are actually a bit higher than America’s – that’s how badly we’re lagging behind. We aren’t pulling our weight. We should be leading the way and fully embracing renewable energy and modern tech but instead we’re being kept in the past by Labor and the Coalition.
Kind of surprised by how Sydney-centric the campaign has been so far. I expected a lot of emphasis to be made on Western Sydney but this has exceeded my expectations.
Are both Perrottet and Minns waiting until the very end to do a blitz of Tweed, Lismore and Ballina? I wouldn’t say they’re up for grabs, but both leaders do have a genuine shot at making an impact in the three Northern Rivers divisions. Perhaps Perrottet has left this corner up to the Nationals while he focuses on Sydney. Still kind of a bad look.
I also think Perrottet putting some considerable effort in Barwon would be fruitful for the Coalition (again the Liberals have probably left this one up to the Nationals to campaign in).
And what about the marginal regions on the other end of NSW? (Genuine question because I actually do not have much awareness or visibility of how active the campaign has been down that way).
I raise this point about how Sydney-centric the campaign is because I hear the criticism frequently from Northern Rivers residents how neglected and far removed they feel from the NSW government.
I even hear some lament that if they were instead a part of Queensland, they would probably be prioritised more given that their communities blend into the urban sprawl of South East Queensland.
The differences in roads on either side of the border is sometime night and day in their upkeep and maintenance.
It seems to me like a general consensus Labor retains Lismore and Greens retain Ballina. Tweed is in play though
Nats will retain Tweed.
The two seats that Labor are campaigning the hardest in are Monaro and Goulburn, and I read somewhere that Minns is heading down there tomorrow.
You would think they would be a chance at Upper Hunter if the swing is on, but there has been no visit from Minns, no major election commitments… Doesn’t scream confidence.
That’s a good one Observer. Bloody had me going for a second.
The Pacific is in way better condition between Newcastle and Tweed than the Bruce from Gympie to Cairns.
One is the Pacific which is a modern freeway with dual split carriageway and good road surface that doesn’t crumble every 12 months.
The other is the Bruce Highway which on a little bit of rain falls apart, remains in dangerous condition and is single line both way with the danger of head on collisions.
@firefox make sure to get your local member to put up wind and solar farms in your electorate where you can see them
@clyde look at the by lection nats got a swing to them no chance in upper hunter. im giving the about 30% chance in lismore probably 5-10 in Ballins
@:) upper hunter has had a re-distribution since the by election
@LNP Insider, concede that the Pacific Highway is pretty bloody good. But I am more so pointing to any roads west of the Pacific Highway further inland from Murwillumbah or Lismore. Ones that receive far less attention than similar roads on the opposite of the border.
Also yes the roads from Gympie to Cairns (especially the Bruce) are awful, my comment wasn’t an uncritical celebration of QLD State government or suggesting that they’re any better. More so a comment on their SE-QLD centric vision akin to NSW’s Sydney-centric attitudes. Northern Rivers residents like to pretend that they would be better serviced by QLD because they’re a lot more conjoined to SE QLD than Sydney.
@ bazza yes but the results were based on the 2019 election not the 2022 by election results nats had a 3.3% swing at the by election meaning the 0.6% margin isnt correct based on that result
“@firefox make sure to get your local member to put up wind and solar farms in your electorate where you can see them”
***
I don’t live in this electorate, I’m next door in Ballina. And you may rest assured that the solar panels on the roof of my house are impossible to miss.
As for the roads around here, the Pacific Highway is pretty much the only decent one there is. It’s because we are so far away from Sydney and the NSW gov really doesn’t care about the people up here outside of elections. The difference when you go up into QLD is so stark – all the roads around the Gold Coast are pretty well maintained. But if you’ve ever been to North Queensland, you’ll know they have the the same problem that we do in Northern NSW – the QLD gov only really bothers to maintain the areas around Brisbane and the GC. It’s the same no matter which side of politics is in gov. The further away you get from the state capital the worse it gets.
@Firefox HEAR HEAR re: roads
@firefox im not talking about on your roof im talking about taking up large swaths of land to make room for farms and putting giant wind turbines that you can see from you bedroom windows
@firefox some of us dont own our own homes and cant put them up and have to pay ever increaseing prices on our power bills so you can feel good about yourself on your nice views
Firefox, SEQ Observer and LNP Insider – maybe that suggests it is time to move away from the current 3 tiers of government structure to a 2-tier system. This effectively amalgamates both local and state government into a new ‘regional’ level. The regional governments will be modelled in similar fashion to US states or regions in European countries such as Italy. This structure will be better suited as funding for services will be more locally targeted and these ‘regional’ governments will then have combined state and local government functions, in a similar manner to the ACT government.
“some of us dont own our own homes and cant put them up and have to pay ever increaseing prices on our power bills so you can feel good about yourself on your nice views”
***
There’s a lot of false assumptions in that sentence. Who ever said I owned my own home? I don’t. Who ever said I have nice views? I don’t.
If you aren’t using renewables and your power prices are going up, then what does that tell you? Sounds like you’re blaming renewables when they have nothing to do with it. Tell your landlord that you’re both getting ripped off and that they will save money by getting panels installed.
As for utility scale solar and wind farms, the Greens are all for them, unsurprisingly. Just take a look at the Greens’ track record on the issue. For example, the ACT Attorney-General, Minister for Water, Energy and Emissions Reduction, Minister for Gaming and Minister for Consumer Affairs – ACT Greens’ Leader and super minister, Shane Rattenbury – has lead the charge in Canberra’s transition to 100% renewable energy. Thanks to the leadership of Rattenbury and the Greens, the ACT invested in solar and wind farms which now power the national capital. The Mugga Lane Solar Park, Williamsdale Solar Farm, Royalla Solar Farm, and Sapphire Wind Farm are a few examples of renewable farms in operation right now.
This isn’t some far off tech that we might be able to use in the future, it’s available now and we should be embracing it fully to be powered by 100% renewable energy, just as the ACT is thanks to the Greens being in government and leading the way on the issue.
Do you have giant wind turbines blocking your view? Yes because my landlord is going to spend thousands of dollars to save me money. So your landlord pays your power bill?
Oh dear.
This is not really the right blog for this, but
No – the ACT does not get 100% of its electricity from renewables. It can’t (unless it is using the Snowy, which I assumed it was but apparently isn’t). There is a somewhat convoluted scheme (similar to when you pay for ‘green’ electricity) where there is an offset for non renewables. It is also fairly easy to do for a small sized city in the middle of nowhere rather than a big city with geographical boundaries (hello Sydney).
As someone with a solar system who actually monitors generation and usage, I am 100% confident that we can get no where near baseload power from renewables (except hydro, but the Greens have put the kybosh on that). That doesn’t mean solar and wind don’t have an important place in any future energy mix, but not 100% of electricity generation.
Mostly Labor Voter, baseload is an outdated concept. Modern electricity grids can run off renewable energy 100% of the time if there is adequate firming capacity in place. There isn’t in Canberra at the moment, but this is possible within the next decade if an investment is made in community batteries and green hydrogen plants.
@wilson the question isnt can they do it the question how much is it gonna cost?
I would win the Olympic gold if I could run the 100m in 9.3!
Look, I would love to be able to get 100% of our electricity from wind and solar, but we just can’t. Community batteries and hydrogen are a long way from being viable, if ever, and like most of the other options very expensive.
I looked into a lot of the reports on a 100% renewable grid, and all of those that said we could relied on a combination of heroic assumptions (e.g. 100% sunlight during daylight hours), unproven technologies and euphemisms like ‘demand management’ or ‘efficiency gains’ to skip over the fact we cannot replace the amount of electricity we use now (let alone with electric cars becoming mainstream).
Look no-one can have 100% renewables, as the grid is all interconnected between Qld, NSW, ACT, Vic, and SA. Have a look at https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem and the fuel mix tab which will provide you the power sources which teh ACT is connected too.
There is absolutely no reason why we can’t be 100% powered by renewables. The only thing stopping it right now is a lack of will from Labor and the Coalition. Unfortunately may still have these outdated views that we have to burn coal to have enough power, it’s just nonsense. We need to stop propping up fossil fuels with massive subsidies and get on with the job of going fully renewable immediately.
The ACT has invested in enough renewables to provide 100% renewable energy for Canberra. You can pretend all you want that it’s not possible but it’s a reality right now and has been since 2020. Of course it’s not an island and is still connected to the national grid – nobody ever said it wasn’t – but how is the mismanagement of the other states at all the ACT’s fault? It’s not. The grid has the capacity to provide the ACT with 100% renewables because they have invested in that capacity. As other states start lifting their game the national grid will contain more and more renewable sources and less and less fossil fuels – that’s what SHOULD be happening anyway.
And lets not pretend that Canberra is some weird place unlike any other in the country or that it is a “small” city. Somewhere around 460,000 Australians call Canberra home and it is growing pretty rapidly. There is a terribly disrespectful tendency that some have of dismissing Canberrans out of hand as unrepresentative of Australians whenever the ACT is mentioned, especially in political conversations. Almost half a million Australians live there and they should be congratulated for doing the right thing in this area.
Remember, only a small handful of federal pollies actually come from Canberra, so don’t blame it or it’s local citizens when the people the rest of the country elects and sends there are no good. Also remember that Canberra is SO MUCH MORE than just Parliament House. It is a living breathing city where people go about their daily lives just like everyone else in the country.
@firefox I lived in Canberra for 8 years I also worked in transmission of power in the Canberra region. I think I have an inside loop on what really happens. The key is that the ACT does not have the big industry to need to maintain a huge power load such at Tamago and Illawarra
“I lived in Canberra for 8 years I also worked in transmission of power in the Canberra region. I think I have an inside loop on what really happens. The key is that the ACT does not have the big industry to need to maintain a huge power load such at Tamago and Illawarra”
***
You’re speaking to someone who spent over two decades living in Canberra – if you have actually lived there you’ll know that pretty much every industry you can think of exists there. It’s not the tiny little town “in the middle of nowhere” that some in this thread want to pretend it is. Again, Canberra is much more than just Parliament House.
@ Firefox as we’ve established we don’t care if we can do it. We shouldn’t because it will be unaffordable for those who don’t have solar panels and don’t live on Sydney’s northern beaches or in the wealthy suburb of Ballina. We could outlaw all non electric petrol cars but then only the rich people will be driving
My EXCLUSIVE exit poll of 5 voters I know that live in the division of Lismore:
4 votes for Labor (80%)
1 vote for Nationals (20%)
Huge result!!!
(This is just as legitimate as some of the seat polling that some media publications have conducted).
@seq just like calling a seat when 200 votes have been counted after polls clse. what part of lismore btw?
First seat called, and it’s safe Labor now.
Huge swing here for the incumbent. Also a big swing in Ballina to the Greens incumbent. And Tweed had a rather muted swing against the Nationals incumbent compared to elsewhere.
Fairly clear examples of incumbents getting a boost in disaster-stricken seats, I would think.
Well, the predictions by a certain member across this site that the Greens would win this seat were well out – as were that same member’s claims on another page that Nationals preferences were distributed to Labor in Richmond (they weren’t; the Greens’ preferences were distributed even though they came second on the primary vote. What matters is the positioning at the distribution of preferences).
I think we can all finally take what this member says with a grain of salt – or a 20% swing of salt, as may be the case!
There’s going to be some big movement in the results here in the coming days.
So far there has only been early-voting results here returned from Lismore, arguably Labor’s best early-voting booth.
The ones to come include:
Goonellabah EVC – bit more Nationals support than in Lismore itself
Kyogle EVC – fairly Nationals leaning
Murwillumbah EVC – decent Green and Nationals vote, Tweed periphery
Tenterfield EVC – strong Nationals
Not at all suggesting that the outcome here is going to be any different, only that the huge margin here will soften as soon as these EVCs will come in.
“Mick Quinlivan, are you actually predicting a primary swing to Labor of 25% or thereabouts?”
Saffin got a 20% primary swing towards her. Mick Quinlivan was closer to the actual election result than most other predictions in this thread!
This seat ends up being a total snooze on election night with Saffin’s impressive sophomore surge being the only thing of note.