Lismore – NSW 2023

@ Ben Raue, Could we add Primary Leader here as well to the map similar to what you did for the Inner Brisbane seats post election. These three cornered costs are interesting.

Is there any reason why the city of Lismore is strong for Labor at recent state election but was 50/50 for the federal election.

Sorry Nimalan, no can do. The maps are generated through a single piece of code and it’d be quite a bit of work to tweak just one.

All good Ben, that makes sense

The 3CP count will definitely be getting a workout for this division. Greens weren’t very far off over-taking Labor in 2019. Likewise, Nationals were also close to the ALP on the final TPP.

In 2019, at the 3CP stage of the count, Greens trailed Labor by less than 400 votes: 27.4% to 28.2%. This was a smaller margin than the final TPP margin between Labor and the Nationals.

My assessment is: marginally 3CP with Labor as the incumbent favourites. Greens with a heightened chance following their recent momentum at the federal election. Finally Nationals with a slight chance of an upset. Nationals cannot be ruled out given their previous reign here, and Hogan’s surprising swing in Page at the Federal Election.

@North East, one of the stories I hear from locals but don’t know how much credit should be given to, is that so many of the Lismore locals downtown, that would usually be favourable to the Labor at elections, were wiped out, displaced and/or had to move elsewhere not long before the federal election. Either somewhere else within the division, over to the coast or up into Queensland. Conversely, the locals at the top of town who were spared from the flooding, in places like Goonellabah and East Lismore have generally been less likely to vote Labor. The locals that lived in the parts of town most vulnerable to flooding have generally also been the most disadvantaged.

So on election day, a significant portion of displaced locals likely voted in different booths than usual or somewhere else. Because the floods occurred so close to the election enrollment cutoff date I also doubt that many updated their enrollment details, especially considering that they would have had far more important things to worry about.

Janelle has a personal vote here and all things being equal with her hard work re bush fires round Tenterfield and floods in.Lismore mean she should improve her vote. From the 2019 election
in the federal seat of Page which.includes roughly. Lismore and Clarence at.a state level she had a personal vote . This personal vote has now shifted to Mr Hogan which explains the different vote at the 3 levels of govt

Should be 2 levels of government

I see the Nationals taking the seat. The buy backs announced by the NSW Gov are huge. If Greens overtake Labor, this will help the Nats, as ALP preferences could flow to Nats in greater number than Green to ALP.

This would actually be a notional Nationals seat on these boundaries – let me explain:
The primary votes from Antony Green are:
NAT: 39.1%
ALP: 25.4%
GRN: 25.1%
IND: 5.1%
AJP: 2.5%
SAP: 1.6%
ACP: 1.1%
KSO: 0.1%
When it comes down to the final 3PP and exclusion the Greens come second, using OPV and the same preference flows as last time with:
NAT: 43.5%
GRN: 28.4%
ALP: 28.1%
Now the 2PP for this seat would be ALP 2.0%, however what’s more important is the 2CP vs the Greens. On the old boundaries the 2CP vs the Greens was NAT 3.3% vs GRN, so on these boundaries the margin would be NAT 2.4% vs GRN and it would be a notional Nationals seat.

In the current climate there is
Not a chance of the nats or greens winning this seat. Janelle has a personal vote and her work in the floods..Lismore and bushfire.. in
Tetherfield area will be rewarded

I believe seats which experience disaster are more likely to stick with the incumbent. This effect was quite evident in the federal seat of Page and should repeat here with a swing towards Saffin. Similar effect has been observed in regards to Hurricane Katrina.

I think Saffin retains due to what Adda mentioned. Sue Higginson is an upper house MP now and I don’t think Greens will try that hard here. Local non party aligned volunteers may see the Nats as a threat and line up behind Saffin.

Agree with.Adda and.john
Cf Leon Bignell Maeson sa

Relatively confident in the Greens’ chances here given an expected rise in vote, the recent disasters contributing to a heightened awareness of climate change, the redistribution from Ballina. The Greens candidate is a councillor with a bit of minimal name recognition in the community as a buybacks guy, which is the hot topic in floodplain voters. Although to be frank it could really go either way ALP or Greens. The incumbency bonus is big. I did mention the floodplain aspect but I’d say that a Greens win here would require an increase in the Greens vote right across the electorate, not necessarily in one spot eg in urban Lismore.

AEF at the moment puts this as 52% chance Saffin, 40% Guise, 5% Rubin.

I don’t buy Nationals as a contender for a number of reasons.

Interested to see how SFF does up here in the north as well

Greens won’t win. ALP hold with increased margin. Popular MP who came through floods, will get a bump like Kevin Hogan did.

I think Saffin is going to have an incumbency surge.

if the greens finish second a leakage from labor will probably get the nats over the line. although the shooters throw a wrench in the works and could be a contender. could be looking at a four corner contest

Agree Janelle Saffine is quite popular even as a member for Page she was as well. In fact in 2013 Page and Eden Monaro were a few Labor marginals which they thought they had a chance to retain. Once Janelle Saffin retires there is an opening for the Greens.

This’ll come down to a 3CP contest, like before.
1. NAT
2. ALP or GRN
3. GRN or ALP

If Janelle Saffin (Labor) comes in second like like time then she will retain the seat. As mentioned above, in 2019, Labor barely beat the Greens but ended up getting Green preferences.

The Nationals’ preferences won’t be counted. I’m sure that the Nationals will lead on primary votes as the left-leaning votes will be split between Greens and Labor.

Saffin may have the sophomore surge which will overcome the intake of Green areas of Byron Shire following the redistribution.

The greens and the nats won’t win.. Janelle has worked hard with bushfires and floods in the area she will be rewarded by the Lismore voters. Maybe even win absolute majority

@ mick doubtful people still hold to their party lines she wont finish with 50% of the primary shell finish second at most

Mick Quinlivan, are you actually predicting a primary swing to Labor of 25% or thereabouts? Even in an overall Labor victory, that seems unrealistically large.

Mick, she might even win 100% of the vote.

Mick is predicting a 100% Primary vote everywhere. and a 120% primary vote in Kiama!

i reckon she’ll get 1005 of the vote because of her work on the floods

Mick is not the topic. The topic is Lismore.

The issue is who wins and it will be the alp. I said could.. we’ll see.. I am in essence predicting a alp swing from both the right
… nats and left… greens

I doubt Janelle Saffin will get a 25% swing in 2023. She may get a good sophomore surge combined with a faltering LNP vote. She’ll need both to retain given the small margin and the redistribution making the seat ‘greener’. The Greens beat Labor in 2011 and 2015 on primaries but Labor made it to the 2PP in 2015, but narrowly lost. In 2019, Labor narrowly beat the Greens in 3CP and narrowly won the 2PP.

I still tip a Labor hold.

line ball depending on who finishes 2nd. if labor come 2nd itll be a toss up. if greens come 2nd labor preferences should flow enough to nationals

Nats aren’t winning this, this is the wrong election for it. Janelle is popular here due to the floods, and like Hogan, she should get a decent swing to her,

If Labor losses this, it will be because they fell to 3rd place and the preferences will go to the Greens. OPV won’t help the Nats. Because there are still right wing minor parties like One Nation.

This is the Griffith and Richmond of the NSW state election. Coalition will come 1st but whoever comes 2nd will win this seat.

In the unlikely event Labor overperform and come 1st place, then it will be a safe Labor seat on paper after the election.

Agree, Daniel T
Janelle is very popular here and the Griffith, Richmond and previously Prahran and Macnamara are got comparisons. As mentioned before once Janelle retires there is an opening for the Greens

@ Daniel t if only one nation had a candidate. Even popular mps can be defeated. If she gets and increased vote it will come mostly from greens vote if she finishes 3rd there wl be enough leakage to nationals to get them over the line. But il concede shell finish 2nd probably

I agree that whoever comes second on 3CP will win, since the Nationals will come first, and Greens and Labor will swap preferences, just like last time.

I predict SFF will come fourth on PVs. Labor will get more SFF preferences (out of those non-exhausted votes) than the Greens will, helping solidify its place in the 3CP count. SFF will probably skim more PVs off the Nationals than Labor and so this will narrow the PV gap between the Nats and Labor.

I think the Greens can flip this seat once Janelle retires. The 2PP in 2015 was GRN 47% NAT 53%.

@votante if greens finish second nats will win as they will get greater leakage from labor then they will from greens. Sff preferences will favour nats as sff voters who come from nats will put nats second. Once saffin retires nats will regain. As some of that is personal vote. Pso votes that are skimmed of a party eventually go back after preferences assuming they aren’t exhausted

Ben I think the argument is that if the Greens margin is just barely sufficient, any Labor leakage to the Nationals can be bridged by a higher Greens primary vote.

I think SFF will probably get a negligible vote. Ben, regional SFF pref distributions I’ve seen, from memory both the 2019 result in Upper Hunter and the 2021 by-election in Upper Hunter, favoured Nats and the ALP basically equally, so I’d reject the idea that a larger SFF vote distribution would favour the Nats. Who it definitely wouldn’t favour is the Greens.

Apologies, Votante said the SFF distribution thing, not Ben, I directed my reply to the wrong person.

@Ben, given OPV, most SFF votes will exhaust. The preference flows in 2019 show this. The split of preference flows was 59/41, LNP’s way at the 2022 federal election. Labor would aim to 1) beat the Greens to come second in the 3CP, 2) minimise the gap between Labor and the National PVs. It would also want to scoop as many preferences as possible. Assuming Labor/Greens have around the same PV, logically Labor will get more SFF preferences than the Greens will.

I sense SFF will come a distant fourth, with a PV of 5% to 8% overall, but higher in the Tenterfield part.

Votante, not good to use distribution data from federal election where preferences are mandatory

Greens had a strong candidate in 2019, who is now in the LC – Sue Higginson. If they couldn’t win with her in 2019 I just can’t see how they can win now given they are facing a popular Labor incumbent.

Labor are at $1.60 to win this at the TAB. Easily the best bet of the election. I just can’t see how Janelle loses.

Every Northern NSW incumbent in 2019 had a swing to them showing the value of personal votes, Labor retain.

@clyde people put greens and nats above her that’s how. The popularity comes from her supporters. Swing voters don’t usually make up their mind until close to election day or they would vote early

@Daniel, I agree. Even though federally, preferencing is compulsory, I went to AEC’s website to get a ball park figure because I don’t think the NSWEC publishes statewide preference flows. I know that NSW OPV preferences can be all over the place.

They don’t directly publish flows but they do publish full preference datasets which make it possible to calculate preference flows. I’ve got three blog posts on the topic cued up for next week.

@ben yes I understand, of course it’s theoretically possible she loses. But Janelle is a flood incumbent in an election where there will be a statewide swing to Labor. I’d have her at $1.10.

Swings only work against liberals though. The nats usually buck this trend

@clyde so you’ll be putting money on her?

She’s $2 with Sportsbet. Even better. ALP should put $1b on her and use the winnings to fund a metro or two.

The don’t have $1b. Also where I checked sports bet and they don’t have individual seats

the federal seat of page the nats mp got a swing to him kevin hogan