Leppington – NSW 2023

This will be a fascinating study into a new seat and could have all the makings of a genuine swing Seat. However, I do feel that the margin on this seat is inflated in favour of Labour, off the back of the 3 booths that moved over from Campbelltown (All centered around Raby). On paper, those booths should swing back to the Coalition.

This seat will be won or lost around Carnes Hill and Austral, where there has been a lot of development. I’ve played a lot of cricket at Greenway Park (across the road from Carnes Hill) and I’ve seen the continual development of McMansions around the ground.

While I think the margin is inflated in favour of Labor, this should be a genuinely close seat either way and could become a barometer for which way the election will fall

Agree Hawkeye, a lot of the new developments are quite aspirational. I do see this seat as a key bellwether. A rapidly growing area where services delivery is key. I predict both parties would campaign extensively here.

I’m not so sure about Raby and surrounds, they are pretty heavily Labor-leaning. I say as a former resident of Raby for 20+ years.

Agree with you Ben, Raby is considered as one of the more established suburbs, and the map shows most of those areas are more Labor leaning compared to the new development areas like Oran Park.

Big ONP votes in the previous state election especially in the Western booths you’ve identified. Similar ONP first-preference % to some of the South-Western fringes of Greater Brisbane – I’m thinking places like Logan and Ispwich. You could consider this part of NSW “Latham country”. Some of these booths sit within Latham’s former Federal division of Werriwa which had a combined first-preference ONP/UAP/LDP total in 2022 of more than 22%. I would mention that LDP did have a favourable ballot position which probably caught a lot of punters who thought they were just voting for the Liberal Party.

Neighbouring Macarthur which also encompasses part of this division, had a combined 15.9% ONP/UAP/LDP vote in 2022.

Preference flows from UAP and ONP, assuming they’re intending to put up a strong showing at this state election, will likely decide who captures this marginal seat. We know that from Queensland state elections that votes from ONP don’t necessarily flow straight to the Liberal party, especially in aspirational divisions like these on the suburban fringes. To get a clue on how these preferences will flow: in QLD 2020, ONP’s overall preference flow split two-thirds to LNP and one-third to ALP. The ONP -> LNP preference flow was strong in the most affluent & urban divisions and weaker generally in lower socio-economic & outer-suburban areas.

There aren’t that many voters in that western part of the seat.

This seat (based on modern day boundaries) has undergone a demographic shift more than most others. It has a fast growing population, lots of developments, a huge mortgage belt and lots of young families. I’m talking about Middleton Grange, West Hoxton, Austral and Leppington. The Liberal vote in the west (e.g. Austral and Leppington) are a bit overinflated because of the said demographic changes and they are no longer semi-rural and the median age is lower. One of most locked down LGAs is here (Liverpool) but the anger from lockdowns and the pandemic will most likely subside over time.

It will be tricky to predict the outcome and since there’s no incumbent, both parties will fight for this seat.

Strangely shaped seat the way it surrounds but does not include Edmondson Park. I think that was done to split the high growth areas between different seats.

@David Walsh

Yes, it’s because of this silly rule that districts must be within 10% on current enrolment and should be within 10% on projected enrolment. Exchanging Edmondson Park and Bardia for the Raby area would’ve put both Leppington and Macquarie Fields very close to a quota on projected enrolment, but because of population growth, Leppington would’ve been under 10% below the current quota. Very unfortunate.

The NSW Electoral Commission election register of candidates shows Therese Antonia Fedeli as the Liberal candidate. Fedeli is the Mayor of Camden Council and represents the Central Ward as a councillor.

Strange choice. Camden Central Ward is not in the Leppington electorate and Fedeli is a very low key Mayor, which is not a bad thing for the Council, but hardly a platform for a state office run.

Would have thought Ned Mannoun would have a stronger chance being from the more dominant Liverpool / Austral end.

i heard Nathan hagarty has won preselection for labour

Maybbi higardi could win with a poor liberal candadate mannoun is popular and his wife is runing in holesworvy will also be interesting weather sydroves wins in camden

Therese Fedeli is an interesting choice and not in a good way. She, like people above me have mentioned, is the low profile mayor of Camden and the ward which she represents isn’t even in the electorate. Hopefully the Liberals change their mind before it is too late, someone like the current mayor of Liverpool, Ned Mannoun, is needed and preferably they should be from the West Hoxton-Carnes Hill part of the new electorate to switch the two party pendulum to the Liberal’s favour. This is the only way I can see them winning but if they don’t switch candidates, Labor will win for sure.

I also have found an article that says what the Liberal candidate’s platform is: https://www.miragenews.com/therese-fedeli-will-fight-for-leppington-895826/, this shows that she definitely will put up a fight but I don’t see her winning, although now that I think about it, someone who sucks as a politician and is also a low profile figure, Anne Stanley, has won the last few elections on the federal level easily so if Leppingtion goes only slightly towards the liberals, she could win although this is unlikely because again, she is not from the electorate and doesn’t have what it takes to be a proper politician.

This election is pretty sad if you ask me, both in this electorate and the entire state given that both major parties have a lot of bad candidates and both leaders are extremely incompetent and stupid.

think paul lynch helped nathan hegarty get preselected he seems mor active then his mayor campaign think he worked for federal mp ann stanley but given he could not become mayor not sure he is the best pickq

i am not sure if it is a smart idea that labor has slected nathan hegarty a staffer to federal mp Anne stanley he lost the liverpool mayor election

Do not know if hegarty is a good candadate as he lost liverpool mayor race

Would pick a alp win.. based on.a notional. Alp.margin.and .pro.alp swing on a state wide basis

how is hegarty though i think he is part of paul lynnchs faction and works foor anne stanly mp the local federal mp he seemsreasonably active but lost the liverpool mayors race

Hegarty used to work foor anne stanly he has been on liverpool cowncil appears to be campaignly heavily how ever desbitepolitical watchers focus on candadates many voters vote based on party or leader and would not know who the candadate is the liberal candadate is very low profile

Aaron, how many times do you need to post that Hagarty lost the Liverpool mayoral race? Maybe four times is sufficient.

did not mean to post the same comment a lot how does evry body think this will turn out should be labor based on it covering much of liverpool

Aaron and Ben, I found the site once open to all viewers has a delay when releasing the latest comments. I found I have to refresh my browser to see comments I just posted.

Hmm I’ve had that complaint before but it seemed to have gotten better.

How is this seat going could this be a labor winn the candadate is Nathan hegarty liverpool cowncilor and x staffer of anne stanly the local federal mp

The Libs have announced planning funding to complete a Western Sydney Orbital Metro this would very popular in this seat. It is important to remember the parts of the seat growing fast are in the north where Libs do best.

yes but the liberal candadate is mayor of camden a bit late now to promis a metro we have no idea who will be transport minister maybi tudehope elliott is leaving

This whole seat is growing fast, I don’t agree with the assertion that it’s the north. The south includes Leppington and that has tremendous growth. I also think judging which parts of the seat have been better for a particular party isn’t useful when the population is changing so radically.

@ Ben Raue, yes your are correct, i meant to say they around Raby where Labor does well is more established is not growing fast in population compared to the rest of the seat. The growth areas of this seat very marginal so i think the actual margin,. taking into account population trends is actually weaker than 1.5%. The mortgage belt is where elections are won and lost.

Has minns viseted this seat yet it is a must winn seat but the leader has not campaigned much here or south cost

didnt hegarty labors candadate work until recently as chief of staff to Anne Stanley local federal mp given he could not winn the mayor of liverpool not sure whiy he was chosin seems a weak candadate given minns has not campaigned much here shows this Stanley appears to be a weak mp only there becaus of backing from paul lynch who is retiring after a long corear but for a longterm mp he has very litle publick profile desbite serving in shadow cabenit for most of labors time

how sdo we think labor is going here hegarty is not very high profile

has minns campaigned here much would nathan hegarty being chief of staff to federal mp Anne stanley who seems low profile part of the ferguson labor faction hurt labors chances here then again the liberal candadate is not well known

The Liberal candidate is the mayor of a major council, so not that unknown.

Gee whiz Aaron, you spend a lot of time banging on about Hagarty – what did he do to you?

From what I can tell, Hagarty seems to be doing a good job on the ground. There was even favourable coverage about him in the News Corpse papers the other day, which despite their waning influence is still a good sign a particular local candidate is making inroads. His factional alliance is not of particular relevance to his electability. The soft left faction controls the local branches so it is to be expected that a soft left candidate would be preselected.

This seat does have the characteristics of an outer suburban swing seat. The important thing for Labor here is to run up the votes in the established urban areas in Campbelltown and Liverpool councils whilst keeping down the Liberal margin the new developments and less urban parts of the seat.

maybii him being from liverpool and camdin not being in the seat will help labor

Liverpool does make up a larger part of the population as of 2019 but the growth in the Camden part is very fast.

I’m surprised that the betting markets are treating this as basically a sure-thing Labor retain. As other commenters have mentioned, the notional margin here is almost meaningless due to the rapid population growth.

An enormous percentage of voters in this electorate will have moved in since 2019 and it’s really hard to say where they’ll place their vote on 25 March.

how do we thiink lepington will go

will ghegarty given he worked for ane stanley be a simelar mp is she hard working this should be an interesting seat to watch some strong labor arias and some other liberal ones

tossup

Leppington was carved out of SIX electorates. Is this a record for the most electorates cut out to form a new electorate?

wellthe new bageries creek was carved out of several seats as well camden cambletown molgoa not sure weather labor can win this or liberal suprised the libs went with Fideley and ned manaun though

is fideley a good candadate

Can someone calculate the margin here for 2007, 2011 and 2015?

Labor would have held it in 2007 but by what margin? Safe? And presumably it would have easily been lost in the landslide in 2011, would they have regained in 2015, or was there a swing against Labor in 2019 here?

Finally, a worthwhile question from Daniel T. And a very good one at that.
It is tricky to ascertain, given that this seat is a genuine mash-together of fragments of several seats but lets see how I go with this.

So the two booths at the Top are Middleton Grange and Kemps Creek. Both booths were in Liverpool from 2007 and were voting Liberal Back then. They then got re-distributed into Mulgoa, where they remained solid Liberal Booths. I don’t see them changing.

You then have the booths around Carnes Hill (including Carnes Hill, Hoxton Park and Hortingsea Park). These booths started off within Macquarie Fields and were solidly Labor until 2011. After 2011, it became a marginal area but then got redistributed into Liverpool. Despite that, Labor never really won the entire margin back that it used to have when it was in Macquarie Fields before 2011. This suggests there might be a demographic shift in the area. To the honest, I can attest to this because I’ve played cricket regularly in Hoxton Park and, every time I go out there to play, there are more and more McMansions being built in the area. These are usually a strong indicator of swing regions, typical of the so-called “Howard Battlers”. I’ve said for a while that this is where the seat will be won or lost.

You then have the South West Area which has been taken from Camden (except for Austral, which was originally in Macquarie Fields before being in Camden). This entire area has been Solidly Liberal from before 2011, even when the area had Labor representatives so I don’t see this area changing so much.

You then have Prestons, which was originally in Liverpool, then transferred into Holsworthy and, now, into Leppington. This has always been a Labor area so I don’t see it changing much.

Finally, you have the Raby Area. This has always been Deep Red Territory, with the only time this area ever going Blue being the 2011 election and retaining some semblance of competitiveness until the 2019 election, when the Liberal Party effectively gave up on Macquarie Fields.

Overall, there are pockets that are Blue-Ribbon and will remain that way, especially west of Camden Valley Way. I’d expect Raby to retain its Deep-Red Status. This seat will be won or lost around Carnes Hill

its hard to know how this seat will go it seems though that Hegarty iscampaigning more heavily then the liberal

so mostly labor with some liberal aerias

Under a liberal , we have had minimal to no improvement to The disaster around the Leppington public school.

Labour have pledged to fix other roads but not this one.

So dire is the circumstances, parents are trying to pull there kids from school before it finishes to keep safe.

Total disaster and a fatality waiting to happen.

They all say it’s a council issue and now the mayor for Camden is running a Liberal for this seat.

maybi labor will fix the road arround the school but the candadate Hegarty cant anowse any thing with out theparty aproval