Legislative Council – NSW 2023

History
The Legislative Council was directly elected for the first time in 1978. Since then the Council has been elected by a system of proportional representation, with the balance of power held by a variety of minor parties.

Prior to 1995, the Legislative Council was elected one-third at a time, with 15 seats up for election at each lower house election. No minor parties were elected at the 1978 election, but at the next four elections the Christian Democratic Party (under their former name of Call to Australia) won a seat, and at three of these elections the Democrats also won a seat.

The 1995 and 1999 elections produced results with a large number of minor parties winning seats. In 1995, single seats were won by the Christian Democratic Party, the Greens, the Democrats, the Shooters and A Better Future for our Children. In 1999, a seat was won by the CDP, Democrats, Greens, One Nation, Unity, Outdoor Recreation Party and Reform the Legal System.

Following the 1999 election result, the electoral system was changed to abolish ticket voting and allow individual voters to cast preferences for whole parties above the line.

At the 2003 election, the balance changed markedly, with the sole Christian Democrat and Shooters MLCs both re-elected, as well as the sitting Greens MLC. The Greens gained an extra seat.

In 2007, the same result was produced, with the two minor right-wing parties each winning a single seat in addition to the seat they won in 2003, while the Greens won two seats.

In 2011, the CDP and the Shooters and Fishers each maintained one seat, while the Greens won three seats (up from two in 2003 and 2007), producing a total crossbench of five Greens, two Christian Democrats and two Shooters and Fishers.

The Animal Justice Party won their first seat in 2015. The Greens retained the two seats they had won in 2007, while the Shooters and Fishers and Christian Democrats each retained their one seat up for election.

In 2019, Animal Justice won a second seat. The Greens retained two of their three seats. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers retained one seat, but the Christian Democrats lost their seat – the first election since 1978 that saw Fred Nile’s party fail to win a seat.

One Nation also returned to the upper house, winning two seats.

During this time, there were various results for the major parties. Labor won a majority of seats in 1978 and 1981, but the Labor representation gradually dropped from 9 to 6 from 1978 to 1991. The Coalition won six seats in 1978 and five in 1981, and then seven in 1984, 1988 and 1991.

In 1995, Labor and the Coalition each won eight seats out of 21 elected. Labor again won eight in 1999, but the Coalition dropped to six seats.

Following the change in the electoral system, both major parties gained seats in 2003. Labor’s seat count peaked at ten, with the Coalition increasing to seven.

Labor won nine in 2007, and the Coalition won eight. In 2011, Labor’s vote collapsed, and they only managed to win five seats, while the Coalition won eleven.

Labor partly recovered in 2015, winning seven seats. The Coalition won nine seats.

Labor again won seven seats in 2019 (up two from their 2011 result), while the Coalition retained eight seats, three down from 2011.

Electoral system
The New South Wales Legislative Council is elected using a system of proportional representation, with all MLCs elected to represent the entire state.

There are 42 members of the Legislative Council, with 21 elected at each election for two terms. With such a large number of members elected as a single electorate, the quota is very low at 4.55%.

Up to the 1999 election, the upper house was elected with a 'ticket voting' system similar to that used in the Senate. This led to a situation where one third of seats were won by minor parties, some of whom won a very small vote.

Prior to the 2003 election, the system was reformed to abolish ticket voting. Under the current system, voters can vote 'above the line', but their vote will only flow to candidates of parties who have directly received a preference from that voter.

In practice this has significantly reduced the impact of preferences, but they can still come into play for the final seat.

At the last three elections, the first twenty seats went to candidates in the top 21 on primary votes, but one seat went to a candidate not ranked in the top 21 on primary votes. Pauline Hanson missed out in 2011 despite ranking 20th on primary votes, being overtaken by the Nationals and the Greens. In 2015, Peter Jones of the No Land Tax party narrowly outpolled the Animal Justice Party on primary votes, but was overtaken for the final seat.

In 2019, the Animal Justice Party was outpolled by both the Christian Democratic Party and the Liberal Democrats, but not only managed to overtake both of them, but managed to overtake the second One Nation candidate to win the twentieth seat.

Sitting MLCs

Term expires 2023
 Term expires 2027
Lou Amato (Liberal), since 2015 Mark Banasiak (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers), since 2019
Scott Barrett (Nationals), since 20221 Abigail Boyd (Greens), since 2019
Robert Borsak (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers), since 2010 Mark Buttigieg (Labor), since 2019
Cate Faehrmann (Greens), since 2018 Catherine Cusack (Liberal), since 2003
Scott Farlow (Liberal), since 2015 Anthony D'Adam (Labor), since 2019
Justin Field (Independent), since 20162 Greg Donnelly (Labor), since 2005
Ben Franklin (Nationals), since 20153 Wes Fang (Nationals), since 2017
John Graham (Labor), since 2016 Sam Farraway (Nationals), since 20198
Courtney Houssos (Labor), since 2015 Sue Higginson (Greens), since 20229
Rose Jackson (Labor), since 2019<4/td> Emma Hurst (Animal Justice), since 2019
Shayne Mallard (Liberal), since 2015 Mark Latham (One Nation), since 2019
Matthew Mason-Cox  (Liberal), since 2006 Natasha Maclaren-Jones (Liberal), since 2011
Shaoquett Moselmane (Labor), since 2009 Taylor Martin (Liberal), since 2017
Fred Nile  (Independent), since 19815 Sarah Mitchell (Nationals), since 2011
Mark Pearson (Animal Justice), since 2015 Daniel Mookhey (Labor), since 2015
Peter Poulos (Liberal), since 20216 Tara Moriarty (Labor), since 2019
Chris Rath (Liberal), since 20227 Peter Primrose (Labor), since 1996
Adam Searle (Labor), since 2011 Rod Roberts (One Nation), since 2019
Walt Secord (Labor), since 2011 Penny Sharpe (Labor), since 2005
Bronnie Taylor (Nationals), since 2015 Damien Tudehope (Liberal), since 2019
Mick Veitch (Labor), since 2007 Natalie Ward (Liberal), since 2017

1Scott Barrett was appointed on 24 February 2022 to replace Trevor Khan, who resigned on 06 January 2022
2Justin Field was appointed as a member of the Greens, but resigned from the Greens in April 2019.
3Ben Franklin resigned from the Legislative Council in 2019 to run for the seat of Ballina. He was subsequently appointed to fill the same vacancy following the election.
4Rose Jackson was appointed on 8 May 2019 to replace Lynda Voltz, who had resigned to run for the seat of Auburn.
5Fred Nile was elected as a member of the Christian Democratic Party, but that party was dissolved in March 2022.
6Peter Poulos was appointed on 06 May 2021 to replace John Ajaka, who resigned on 31 March 2021.
7Chris Rath was appointed on 24 March 2022 to replace Don Harwin, who resigned on 22 March 2022.
8Sam Farraway was appointed on 17 October 2019 to replace Niall Blair, who resigned on 16 October 2019.
9Sue Higginson was appointed on 12 May 2022 to replace David Shoebridge, who resigned on 11 April 2022.

2019 result

Group Votes % Swing Quota Seats won
Liberal/Nationals 1,549,751 34.8 -7.8 7.660 8
Labor 1,321,449 29.7 -1.4 6.531 7
Greens 432,999 9.7 -0.2 2.140 2
One Nation 306,933 6.9 +6.9 1.517 2
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 246,477 5.5 +1.6 1.218 1
Christian Democratic Party 101,328 2.3 -0.6 0.501 0
Liberal Democrats 96,999 2.2 +2.2 0.479 0
Animal Justice Party 86,713 1.9 +0.2 0.429 1
Keep Sydney Open 81,508 1.8 +1.8 0.403 0
Sustainable Australia 65,102 1.5 +1.5 0.322 0
Voluntary Euthanasia Party 46,971 1.1 +0.1 0.232 0
Others 114,916 2.6
Informal 301,681 6.3

On primary votes, the Coalition gained seven seats, Labor six, Greens two, and one seat each for One Nation and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.

The eighth Coalition candidate (Nationals MLC Wes Fang) was clearly in the lead for the eighteenth seat. For the remaining three seats, there were five candidates between 0.4 and 0.6 quotas: the seventh Labor candidate, the second One Nation candidate, and the lead candidates for the Christian Democratic Party, Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice Party and Keep Sydney Open.

At count 333, when there was no more than one candidate left in each group, the leading candidates stood at:

  • Wes Fang (NAT) - 0.6565 quotas
  • Mark Buttigieg (ALP) - 0.5263
  • Paul Green (CDP) - 0.5061
  • Rod Roberts (ON) - 0.5044
  • David Leyonhjelm (AJP) - 0.4837
  • Emma Hurst (AJP) - 0.4372
  • Tyson Koh (KSO) - 0.4077

The chart at the end of this section shows how these candidates' votes shifted in the final rounds of counting.

Labor quickly widened the gap from the rest of the gap, with a number of left-wing minor parties being knocked out and their preferences favouring Labor, but also Animal Justice. The third Greens candidate and Voluntary Euthanasia boosted both parties.

Preferences from Sustainable Australia flowed most strongly to Animal Justice, pushing them ahead of the Liberal Democrats and very close to One Nation and the Christian Democrats, with those three parties now competing for the final two seats. Sustainable Australia preferences were also helpful to Labor.

Keep Sydney Open was then excluded, with their preferences most strongly boosting Labor, but also pushing Animal Justice ahead of One Nation and the CDP.

Liberal Democrats preferences were not as helpful to the other minor right-wing parties as preferences from left-wing parties had been to the leading left candidates, and mostly favoured the Nationals candidate who was clearly on track to win. This left sitting Christian Democrat MLC Paul Green 5408 votes short of second One Nation candidate Rod Roberts for the final seat.

Candidates
Sitting MLCs Shaoquett Moselmane, Adam Searle, Walt Secord, Mick Veitch (Labor), Mark Pearson (Animal Justice) and Justin Field are not running for re-election.

For most groups, only the first candidate is listed. The first three Greens and One Nation candidates are listed. The first eleven Coalition and Labor candidates are listed. Most groups ran at least 15 candidates. There are six groups that ran less than 15 candidates and thus don't have an above-the-line box - they are marked on the list.

  • J - John Ruddick (Liberal Democrats)
  • K - Oscar Grenfell (Independent) - No ATL box
  • L - Khalil Khay (Public Education Party)
  • M - Michael O'Neill (Informed Medical Options)
  • N - Robert Borsak (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • O - Jeremy Buckingham (Legalise Cannabis)
  • P - Danny Lim (Independent) - No ATL box
  • Ungrouped
      • Stefan Prasad
      • Colleen Fuller
      • Warren Grzic
      • Van Huynh
      • Archie Lea
      • Michelle Martin
      • Lee Howe
      • Mick Allen
      • R Cheetham
      • Guitang Lu
      • George Potkonyak

Assessment
The current Legislative Council consists of 22 members of parties of the right - 17 Coalition, 2 One Nation, 2 Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, and one Christian Democrat (technically now an independent). It also included 20 members of the left - 14 Labor, 3 Greens, 2 Animal Justice and one ex-Greens independent.

If polling reveals a shift to the left, it is quite plausible that the left could at least win half the seats, or possibly reach up to 22.

It is worth noting that the Coalition's relationship with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers is not very constructive, and so this should not be taken as a solid pro-government majority, but does give a sense of ideological trends. A Council with the Greens, Animal Justice and potentially other centre-left crossbenchers in the balance of power could look quite different, particularly if it is paired with a Labor government.

The Coalition won nine seats in 2015 and eight in 2019, so a repeat of the last election would see them lose a seat. This was offset by an increase in the number of right-wing minor parties, with the Christian Democrats losing one seat and One Nation winning two, so the last election did not change the 22-20 political divide.

The Greens currently only hold three seats but are only defending one. They should have no trouble winning back the seat they lost when Justin Field quit the party after the 2019 election, and may have some chance of winning a third seat, as they did in 2011.

One Nation are not defending any seats. They should win one seat, and could potentially win a second.

Animal Justice have a good chance of retaining their seat, but their vote is not high enough for that seat to be safe. Legalise Cannabis also has a real shot at winning a seat, and could potentially win that third left crossbench seat rather than the AJP.

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers should have a high enough vote to retain their seat but don't usually do well enough to be competitive for a second.

Results of the 2019 NSW Legislative Council election for the five highest-polling tickets

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187 COMMENTS

  1. Does anyone know when the Coalition ticket might start to be teased out? Presently, if all nine incumbents are renominated, the ticket would only have 1 woman (B Taylor) and 8 men, including no women from the Liberal nominees on the ticket. I doubt all incumbents would be cleanly renominated in winnable spots in any case though.

  2. If Legalise Cannabis run, they look like they’ll score a seat. It’s probably a fight between SFF (whose vote will retreat), Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice.

    It seems like Legalise Cannabis has won two Legislative Council seats in Victoria and the Federal Senate rsults show they beat Animal Justice in NSW.

    @Daniel, I read that the Nats are looking to field more female candidates and this could mean more Nationals women on the LNP upper house ticket than compared to 2015 or 2019.

  3. The SMH has reported on some significant changes to the Liberal ticket.
    According to the article, Melanie Gibbons has lost her preselection chance for the upper house as well, however the three most winnable spots have been given to Mclaren-Jones, Susan Carter and Jean Hayes (don’t know anything about the last two, someone who knows the party more could probably comment.)
    These three spots are at the expense of Matthew Mason-Cox, Lou Amato and Shayne Mallard, ending speculation about their respective futures, especially that of Mason-Cox.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-intervenes-to-ensure-liberal-women-preselected-for-upper-house-20221222-p5c8do.html

  4. Labor has better than 50/50 chance of going from 7 to 8.
    One nation could go from nil
    To 1. But the fly in the ointment is Mark Latham he sits in the upper house and has 4 years to
    Serve. BUT he is creating a casual vacancy and contesting the 2023 election to win a extra seat.no one else has pulled this stunt before why? I don’t know whether this is brilliant or folly..ie does this ploy work? Should he lose will he refill his own casual vacancy with himself? as far as I know he hasn’t made a statement re the filling of the casual vacancy has any heard anything. If I were a person who could vote for onp I would be inclined not too. Probably this stunt means onp cannot win 2 seats. Anyone else’s opinion

  5. Hi DCook, thanks for post this, it is a very interest announcement.

    The Liberal party’s confirmed win positions for this election represents “South of Sydney” for the regional position. Natasha Maclaren-Jones heading this ticket will be at the expense of Matthew Mason-Cox and will taste extra-sweet, given that Mason-Cox was the one who rolled her for the President of the LC (with support from segments from Labor and the Greens).

    Lou Amato and Shayne Mallard (I think) were At-large.

    As talented as Melanie Gibbons is, the problem is that no-one trusts her partner, Kent Johns, who has become a massive power broker within the Shire.

  6. Dont think mclaron jones heading the ticket would be that big a deal mclaron jones wanted to swich to the lower house but like Natali ward lacked support emarto is hardly known

  8. The Daily Telegraph have just reported that the Liberal preselection change has been scrapped, being unable to achieve enough support.
    Article is paywalled, more information will likely come out soon.

    Strange to see, given that all three main leadership forces in the party (Perrottet, Tudehope, Kean) supported the move. Earlier today, the ABC reported on internal concerns within the moderates over the new candidates, seems like these may have risen.

  9. Dont think mclaron jones heading the ticket would be that big a deal mclaron jones wanted to swich to the lower house but like Natali ward lacked support emarto is hardly known so mason cocks and imarto stay well mclaron jones is part of hawkes group not sure about the others so turns out tuderhope and kean are not realy power brockers any more no candadates they backed got selected

  10. Not up with shier libs but hasnt kent johns factional power reduced he was droped from leading the ticket to third where the libs were hopeing he would be defeated but the vote was so strong hegot over the lynn hewas blocked from runing against kelley in hughes and used to be labor and part of the lib moderits

  11. Kent Johns still has particular influence, especially around the Shire. His influence within the Moderates has declined after moves were made to initially protect Craig Kelly. That has now disappeared.

    But, it doesn’t matter right now. What is going to be interesting is what happens if this agreed ticket doesn’t get up. The only option for Gibbons now would be taking an At-Large Spot.

  12. plus mclaron jones who was suposed to head th tickets current term does not end un til 2023 that would mean she would have to resign and recontest i asume mason Cocks and imarto will go Emarto has not achieved much and has no profile but malard is close the the lib power bbrocker ned maunon but liver pool cowncil couldgo before icac again

  13. it is interesting that wiith the upper house deal the top spot goes to Allix hawke xclose friend Netasha mclaron jones i thought given perotitt suposed to be in the right thatwith the repots of matt kean being a power broker that he has failed to get any candadates up in preselection Hawke must be the best factional leader in nsw

  14. How do people rate Elizabeth Farrelly’s chances? She outdid expectations in the Strathfield by-election but I’m not sure anything comparable can be replicated at a statewide level. My current guess is that she could get around ~1.5% to 2%, similarly to Tyson Koh (who’s apparently running her campaign) last time around. For context, she has formed “Elizabeth Farrelly Independents” piggybacking the existing registration of Keep Sydney Open, which no longer has a Sydney to keep open.

  15. Perrottet is losing this election easily. Need there not be any denialism from conservatives. The polls are clearly trending Labor’s way 53-47 to 55-45. Id absolutely love to be proven wrong on this.

    I’m not saying Labor is going to sweep all the marginal seats. The Liberals still have good chances in seats like Oatley and Holsworthy, but should lose most others.

    There is absolutely no reason why the coalition would be in power for 16 years in NSW when it has never happened before. Unless Minns pulls a Michael Daley or a Luke Foley, he will win.

  16. Labor’s issue is going to be whether they can form majority government. I think the most likely scenario at this stage will be a hung parliament, for a few reasons.

    1. The Cross Bench is already relatively massive (9 seats in a 93-seat parliament) and looks like a chance of growing.
    2. Labor needs to win seats directly off the Coalition to form government. At this point, the only ones I would say Labor are a genuine chance are East Hills, Upper Hunter, Penrith, Parramatta, Kiama and Drummoyne. That would get Labor to 44 seats. They maybe win Balmain which gets them to 45.
    3. They also need to do this while defending Leppington (brand new seat, currently notionally Labor but who knows how this seat will pan out), Heathcote (Notionally Labor but a Liberal MP), Londonderry (Bad Redistribution and Prue Carr has been away sick) and Bega (Was very strong under Andrew Constance until the By-Election).
    4. Like the Coalition, Labor will also be under pressure with regards to the Cross-Bench, with expected Tilts in Cabramatta, Fairfield and Liverpool.

    I think Daniel T still has a way to go to easy up the partisan attacks but this election is not the slam-dunk that he would like.

  17. Opinion polls have been averaging 54/46 labors way with Labor outpolling the liberals in terms of primary votes. This is different to the situation in 2011 2015.and 2019. Under opv this makes things fall in labor’s favour. In Bega Labor will win.again. seats up to.a 6% margin.are in play .
    Some past that point such as Kiama. Monaro Drummoyne and South Coast are also for their own reasons. The first 3 I would call the scandal seats.and the last is the retirement of Mrs Hancock

  18. Mick – you hold onto September/October polls Like Lynas held into his security blanket.
    The most recent one is 52/48 but they are in fact now much much closer. What happened is sept/oct is not relevant to what is happening now. So the constant reference to them is about as relevant as calling Liz Truss UKs PM.
    Additionally no one in the know believes in a uniform statewide swing. It will be diverse and patchy, and the ALP and SFF have at least 5 of their own seats at serious risk.
    Mate – be a serious commentator by being less partisan!!

  19. There’s little doubt at this stage that there’s going to be a general statewide swing to the ALP. The problem for the ALP is there aren’t many marginal Coalition seats for Labor to pick up. There are only 6 marginal Coalition seats and some of them have demographic trends favouring the Libs (East Hills, Winston Hills). The seats where there’s likely a notable ALP swing have pretty big buffers (Parramatta, Ryde, Epping, Drummoyne, Kiama). It’s also possible that the results could patchy like in VIC. On top of that, the Coalition could do very well in the rural areas, just like in the VIC state election, and pick up seats from the SFF. Thus, I’d say the most likely result is a hung parliament and I’m not sure which one of the major parties have the most seats but I’d expect the ALP to win on the TPP.

  20. Actual upper house.. lnp hold nine seats likely to lose 1 or 2
    Alp hold 7 likely to gain 1
    Mark Latham ‘s decision to create a casual vacancy then stand in 2023 election does it work..? Re his casual vacancy who fills it? Tania Mihailuk ?

  21. Moderate.. the libs are on the nose.. the scandals of Barilaro have done them harm. Re my suggested bet..this election. Riverstone if Anne Marie Christie the candidate suggest 2 to 2 odds. Say I bet $20. But get $40 back if I win. or if she is not the candidate an even $20 each.. deal ?

  24. Since this is the pseudo thread for general statewide election discussion, I will give my rough odds/ratings for competitive seats:

    Labor favored to gain (>60% chance of victory): Penrith, Parramatta, Heathcote
    Toss-up seats (50/50 contests, neither side favored to win at this stage): East Hills, Leppington, Upper Hunter, Riverstone, Winston Hills, Monaro, Barwon, Kiama, Drummoyne
    Likely Labor holds: Lismore, Bega, Coogee, Port Stephens, Londonderry
    Liberals favored to retain: Ryde, Epping, South Coast, Willoughby, North Shore
    Likely Liberal holds: Pittwater, Wahroonga
    Nationals favored to gain: Murray
    Nationals favored to retain: Dubbo

    All other seats are considered safe for the incumbent party. I probably see East Hills, Leppington, Monaro and Riverstone as the four toss-up seats most likely to move into the ‘Labor favored’ category, especially if opinion polls remain unchanged or worsen in the lead up to election day. Labor needs to sweep and gain almost all the ‘toss-up’ seats if they want to secure a majority. The Coalition are highly unlikely to retain their majority as they are already underdogs in a few seats, and they only have a handful of credible offensive targets (Heathcote, Leppington and Murray).

  26. Hard to tell toss ups….. Camden
    Riverstone Drummoyne. South Coast.Goulburn Winston Hills Tweed
    Against Labor
    North Shore Pittwater Willoughby Wakehurst…. against teal or independent
    Don’t know enough about Dubbo Upper Hunter…..
    I think Murray Barwon and Orange will stay with ex sff independents
    Leppington will stay Labor
    East Hills is likely alp win
    Port Macquarie.. alp.. lib..nat and probable independent . Rob Oakshott not standing.. result uncertain. Least likely alp win
    Monaro probable alp win Kiama same as Monaro
    Haven’t heard much about Oatley think advantage liberal
    Ryde probably similar to
    Oatley. Outside Chances…Balmain Labor Holswothy labor Miranda Labor.. she is trying to.do a Tudge . hope the margin is big enough. There are probably other seats but they would favour the voices of Darkness ie libs and Nats

  28. the shooters could loose there seats dont think Borsak is very popular no christian partty dout niles wife will get up wonder if the canibas party how they will go wonder when labor will find candadates in paramater riverstone and the fairfield aeria

  31. Tania muhayliuk has finaly anowsed she is runing for one nation her seat would be one of the last seats in nsw to ever vote foor one nation it will most likely help labor ibn banks town and other seats with ethnick populations she is hardly a house hold name hardly a person latham needs

  32. If Latham wins a new term, I’d expect Mihailuk to be appointed to replace him in his old term (if she doesn’t win a seat).
    If the recent federal results are anything to go by, One Nation would have enough of a challenge getting a new seat, let alone two new seats.

  33. The Animal Justice Party is running Alison Waters for the Legislative Council. Thoughts on their likelihood of success? In the last 2 elections they have succeeded in electing a candidate with Mark Pearson in 2015 and Emma Hurst in 2019.

  34. At the 2022 federal senate election, AJP in NSW doubled its vote to just over 2%. Methinks AJP is now a much bigger party. They ran in all seats at the 2022 Vic election. If they succeeded at the last two NSW elections in the upper house then I have no doubts that they will win a seat in 2023.

    As for One Nation, I think they could scrape in and win a seat, though I’m certain that the anti-lockdown and vaccine anger that boosted their vote at the federal election has now subsided a fair bit.

  35. Onp needs to be transparent in
    What happens to the casual vacancy. Mark created in the
    Event onp wins
    0
    1
    2
    Seats will Mark reappoint himself in the event they win.no
    Seats in 2023.
    The voters are being treated as
    Mugs by onp

  36. it seems mihayliuk is there to triy and do as much damage tothe banks town mayor think if one nation does not win a seat latham will just re appoint him self a strange move as her old seat banks town would probaly have one of the lowest one nation votes in the state with its multiculturalizm and lathams coments about banks town would not help her she has tried to sell out to sky news attacking labor over the last two years saying we need to keep all the coal mines open what about the long term nsw one nation members who has suportid the party for years who mis out on a seat because of a disgruntled labor mp

  37. I think you’re broadly correct Aaron. It’ll be interesting to see how the Tania saga plays out.

  38. AJP victory depends on how well the Greens’ 3rd candidate does – if the Greens 3rd gets below AJP 1st, then Greens prefs will largely elect AJP, and vice-versa. Given the Greens’ recent renaissance it may be harder for the AJP to come from far behind on preferences if the Greens can win a 3rd seat, and may need to consolidate their vote moreso on primary votes rather than on preferences from likeminded voters.

  39. As for Mihailuk, Latham will win a new 8-year term surely, then she gets put for 4 years to fill his vacancy. Unless maybe the One Nation party in NSW has something else in mind — not sure why Latham sees such value in her given he could appoint anyone from the hard-right instead.

  40. yes she seems a very strange pickshe would have litle name recognition she is from a seat where voters are least likely to vote one nation her aligattions were found to have no credability acording to the investigationmaybi a sky news a former liberal mp would be a better pick plus does not show much confidence in the partys egzzisting members if the party has to findsome one from outside to help lathams falling popularity he is only likely to get up in upper house as nile is leaving and no idea how shooters will go

  41. 2GB saying Liberal Insider chat is pretty dire in a number of seats, based on recent polling. I know Liberals were polling some semi marginal Liberal seats last week so the timing for a leak or scuttlebutt based on that seems about right.

    Think they are going to lose in Willoughby to someone not even campaigning yet….

  42. Re the upper house there is certainly a right wing vacancy..Mark was once a Labor mp and federal parliamentary leader now one Nation..he was a politician of no principles who found a seat.. he recognised his newest recruit as someone similar. . To go from Labor to saying.. climate change is not real.. the gass and oil companies are ok with their price gorging.. that we need to cut immigration and oppose the UN refugee convention.. take people of new start if under 50 and spend 3 in 5 years unemployed.. all are weird policies.. never heard Tania support any such policies within the alp….. her problem was no upper or lower house seat.. so…. thank You Mark.. thank you one Nation…

  43. Mick, I wouldn’t call Mark latham as having no principles. In fact, his larrikin style of being brash and not taking time to look at big picture details is similar to old style Labor politicians like Jack lang and paul Keating.

    It is just that modern Labor has moved past that era and no longer fits in well with that sort of style which resonates with working class people (mostly whites).

  44. Mark Latham was always a member of Labor Right as well, which has tended to share similar Social Conservative views as elements of the Liberal Party. So the notion of Latham and Mihailuk joining One Nation from the Labor Right is not entirely surprising.

    As with the latest poll from Resolve Strategic, having Labor in front 37 to 34, I think this continues to push that the most likely outcome from this is a hung parliament, especially as both major parties lost 1PP in Primary Vote to the Greens and Independents. It should be noted as well that a portion of the increase in vote for the Independents has also come from disillusioned SFF Voters.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cross-Bench increases

  45. YouGov on the weekend was ALP 39, LNP 34, so really quite similar. One had the GRN on 11 and the other had them on 12. That’s a very solid sample size showing a 5 to 8% PV swing (depending how you measure it) and 55/45 2PP, for a 7% swing. At what point do we start to say the polls aren’t pointing to a hung Parliament as most likely??

    This is starting to get a little like the US midterms. The commentary was that the polls could not be that good for the Democrats (until they were flooded with biased polls in the last 2 weeks) so everyone still thought the Republicans would have a big win. Then when they didn’t, people said the polls were wrong, when most of the major non partisan polls were very accurate!

    Disbelieve the polls if you like, but be clear about it. Comparing PV’s of 37 to 34 is not the right measure to say it’s tight, as Kevin Bonham pointed out for the Victorian election. If there is >10% GRN vote, is not all going to exhaust.

  46. First off, You’ve failed to take into the account of OPV, where the Exhaustion rate has averaged around 40-50%. You only need to look at what happened in Queensland in 2012 and the combined impact of a significant drop in primary vote, along with the collapse of preferences, resulted in Labor being reduced to 7 seats.

    2nd, the current trend at this point is that both major parties are on the nose. Don’t forget that the 2022 Federal Election saw the Labor Party break their own record for their lowest Primary Vote. It also saw the lowest Combined Primary Vote between Labor and the Coalition (I believe) since the 2nd World War. This recent poll shows NSW heading in that direction as well.

  47. I’m not sure an election where the LNP got nearly double the primary vote of the ALP is really comparable to one where Labor are leading them

  48. I can sense Mick Q getting on here pretty quick to educate us all about OPV benefiting the party leading in more seats on primary votes. I haven’t done a tally of what primary vote swing would be needed where it is more likely to be Labor leading than LNP.

    As I see it, LNP basically never win on preferences with the current primary votes (someone point out some examples to me..) Labor often do, but not as often under OPV. A close election on primary votes, increases the number of seats Labor can win on preferences, despite the exhaustion rate. I also tend to think the exhaustion rate can vary from seat to seat, and also on average from election to election.

  49. Thanks insider. I have tried for most seats besides the safe Labor and safe independent seats to try and estimate the opv impact.. I call it the opv bonus. A good example is East Hills. Even an even vote that is a 1% swing on primary votes so using the 2019 alp and libs poll even then this gives Labor victory by 1.5% using 2019 preference distribution. But the dual impact of the boundary change (0.4%) plus the positive impact of reducing Tania’s vote suppression say (0.5%).takes Labor to a win. Ignoring at least a muted swing of the 6 to 8% alp state wide swing

  50. This is how I see opv.
    As long as the liberals outpolled Labor in primary votes they benefit. This happened over the last 3 elections. Now Labor is outpolling the liberals on primary votes so.opv benefits Labor.
    The places where either Labor or the greens polled high allowed wins from behind for both Labor and the Greens. Balina Lismore and Coogee.
    Labor to green and visa versa are the votes which can ne most strongly directed against the.liberals.
    The ex sff independents and the teals /independents can also benefit from alp and green preferences. Remember except in Warringah in 2019 teals did not exist.

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