Legislative Council – NSW 2023

History
The Legislative Council was directly elected for the first time in 1978. Since then the Council has been elected by a system of proportional representation, with the balance of power held by a variety of minor parties.

Prior to 1995, the Legislative Council was elected one-third at a time, with 15 seats up for election at each lower house election. No minor parties were elected at the 1978 election, but at the next four elections the Christian Democratic Party (under their former name of Call to Australia) won a seat, and at three of these elections the Democrats also won a seat.

The 1995 and 1999 elections produced results with a large number of minor parties winning seats. In 1995, single seats were won by the Christian Democratic Party, the Greens, the Democrats, the Shooters and A Better Future for our Children. In 1999, a seat was won by the CDP, Democrats, Greens, One Nation, Unity, Outdoor Recreation Party and Reform the Legal System.

Following the 1999 election result, the electoral system was changed to abolish ticket voting and allow individual voters to cast preferences for whole parties above the line.

At the 2003 election, the balance changed markedly, with the sole Christian Democrat and Shooters MLCs both re-elected, as well as the sitting Greens MLC. The Greens gained an extra seat.

In 2007, the same result was produced, with the two minor right-wing parties each winning a single seat in addition to the seat they won in 2003, while the Greens won two seats.

In 2011, the CDP and the Shooters and Fishers each maintained one seat, while the Greens won three seats (up from two in 2003 and 2007), producing a total crossbench of five Greens, two Christian Democrats and two Shooters and Fishers.

The Animal Justice Party won their first seat in 2015. The Greens retained the two seats they had won in 2007, while the Shooters and Fishers and Christian Democrats each retained their one seat up for election.

In 2019, Animal Justice won a second seat. The Greens retained two of their three seats. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers retained one seat, but the Christian Democrats lost their seat – the first election since 1978 that saw Fred Nile’s party fail to win a seat.

One Nation also returned to the upper house, winning two seats.

During this time, there were various results for the major parties. Labor won a majority of seats in 1978 and 1981, but the Labor representation gradually dropped from 9 to 6 from 1978 to 1991. The Coalition won six seats in 1978 and five in 1981, and then seven in 1984, 1988 and 1991.

In 1995, Labor and the Coalition each won eight seats out of 21 elected. Labor again won eight in 1999, but the Coalition dropped to six seats.

Following the change in the electoral system, both major parties gained seats in 2003. Labor’s seat count peaked at ten, with the Coalition increasing to seven.

Labor won nine in 2007, and the Coalition won eight. In 2011, Labor’s vote collapsed, and they only managed to win five seats, while the Coalition won eleven.

Labor partly recovered in 2015, winning seven seats. The Coalition won nine seats.

Labor again won seven seats in 2019 (up two from their 2011 result), while the Coalition retained eight seats, three down from 2011.

Electoral system
The New South Wales Legislative Council is elected using a system of proportional representation, with all MLCs elected to represent the entire state.

There are 42 members of the Legislative Council, with 21 elected at each election for two terms. With such a large number of members elected as a single electorate, the quota is very low at 4.55%.

Up to the 1999 election, the upper house was elected with a 'ticket voting' system similar to that used in the Senate. This led to a situation where one third of seats were won by minor parties, some of whom won a very small vote.

Prior to the 2003 election, the system was reformed to abolish ticket voting. Under the current system, voters can vote 'above the line', but their vote will only flow to candidates of parties who have directly received a preference from that voter.

In practice this has significantly reduced the impact of preferences, but they can still come into play for the final seat.

At the last three elections, the first twenty seats went to candidates in the top 21 on primary votes, but one seat went to a candidate not ranked in the top 21 on primary votes. Pauline Hanson missed out in 2011 despite ranking 20th on primary votes, being overtaken by the Nationals and the Greens. In 2015, Peter Jones of the No Land Tax party narrowly outpolled the Animal Justice Party on primary votes, but was overtaken for the final seat.

In 2019, the Animal Justice Party was outpolled by both the Christian Democratic Party and the Liberal Democrats, but not only managed to overtake both of them, but managed to overtake the second One Nation candidate to win the twentieth seat.

Sitting MLCs

Term expires 2023
 Term expires 2027
Lou Amato (Liberal), since 2015 Mark Banasiak (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers), since 2019
Scott Barrett (Nationals), since 20221 Abigail Boyd (Greens), since 2019
Robert Borsak (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers), since 2010 Mark Buttigieg (Labor), since 2019
Cate Faehrmann (Greens), since 2018 Catherine Cusack (Liberal), since 2003
Scott Farlow (Liberal), since 2015 Anthony D'Adam (Labor), since 2019
Justin Field (Independent), since 20162 Greg Donnelly (Labor), since 2005
Ben Franklin (Nationals), since 20153 Wes Fang (Nationals), since 2017
John Graham (Labor), since 2016 Sam Farraway (Nationals), since 20198
Courtney Houssos (Labor), since 2015 Sue Higginson (Greens), since 20229
Rose Jackson (Labor), since 2019<4/td> Emma Hurst (Animal Justice), since 2019
Shayne Mallard (Liberal), since 2015 Mark Latham (One Nation), since 2019
Matthew Mason-Cox  (Liberal), since 2006 Natasha Maclaren-Jones (Liberal), since 2011
Shaoquett Moselmane (Labor), since 2009 Taylor Martin (Liberal), since 2017
Fred Nile  (Independent), since 19815 Sarah Mitchell (Nationals), since 2011
Mark Pearson (Animal Justice), since 2015 Daniel Mookhey (Labor), since 2015
Peter Poulos (Liberal), since 20216 Tara Moriarty (Labor), since 2019
Chris Rath (Liberal), since 20227 Peter Primrose (Labor), since 1996
Adam Searle (Labor), since 2011 Rod Roberts (One Nation), since 2019
Walt Secord (Labor), since 2011 Penny Sharpe (Labor), since 2005
Bronnie Taylor (Nationals), since 2015 Damien Tudehope (Liberal), since 2019
Mick Veitch (Labor), since 2007 Natalie Ward (Liberal), since 2017

1Scott Barrett was appointed on 24 February 2022 to replace Trevor Khan, who resigned on 06 January 2022
2Justin Field was appointed as a member of the Greens, but resigned from the Greens in April 2019.
3Ben Franklin resigned from the Legislative Council in 2019 to run for the seat of Ballina. He was subsequently appointed to fill the same vacancy following the election.
4Rose Jackson was appointed on 8 May 2019 to replace Lynda Voltz, who had resigned to run for the seat of Auburn.
5Fred Nile was elected as a member of the Christian Democratic Party, but that party was dissolved in March 2022.
6Peter Poulos was appointed on 06 May 2021 to replace John Ajaka, who resigned on 31 March 2021.
7Chris Rath was appointed on 24 March 2022 to replace Don Harwin, who resigned on 22 March 2022.
8Sam Farraway was appointed on 17 October 2019 to replace Niall Blair, who resigned on 16 October 2019.
9Sue Higginson was appointed on 12 May 2022 to replace David Shoebridge, who resigned on 11 April 2022.

2019 result

Group Votes % Swing Quota Seats won
Liberal/Nationals 1,549,751 34.8 -7.8 7.660 8
Labor 1,321,449 29.7 -1.4 6.531 7
Greens 432,999 9.7 -0.2 2.140 2
One Nation 306,933 6.9 +6.9 1.517 2
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 246,477 5.5 +1.6 1.218 1
Christian Democratic Party 101,328 2.3 -0.6 0.501 0
Liberal Democrats 96,999 2.2 +2.2 0.479 0
Animal Justice Party 86,713 1.9 +0.2 0.429 1
Keep Sydney Open 81,508 1.8 +1.8 0.403 0
Sustainable Australia 65,102 1.5 +1.5 0.322 0
Voluntary Euthanasia Party 46,971 1.1 +0.1 0.232 0
Others 114,916 2.6
Informal 301,681 6.3

On primary votes, the Coalition gained seven seats, Labor six, Greens two, and one seat each for One Nation and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.

The eighth Coalition candidate (Nationals MLC Wes Fang) was clearly in the lead for the eighteenth seat. For the remaining three seats, there were five candidates between 0.4 and 0.6 quotas: the seventh Labor candidate, the second One Nation candidate, and the lead candidates for the Christian Democratic Party, Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice Party and Keep Sydney Open.

At count 333, when there was no more than one candidate left in each group, the leading candidates stood at:

  • Wes Fang (NAT) - 0.6565 quotas
  • Mark Buttigieg (ALP) - 0.5263
  • Paul Green (CDP) - 0.5061
  • Rod Roberts (ON) - 0.5044
  • David Leyonhjelm (AJP) - 0.4837
  • Emma Hurst (AJP) - 0.4372
  • Tyson Koh (KSO) - 0.4077

The chart at the end of this section shows how these candidates' votes shifted in the final rounds of counting.

Labor quickly widened the gap from the rest of the gap, with a number of left-wing minor parties being knocked out and their preferences favouring Labor, but also Animal Justice. The third Greens candidate and Voluntary Euthanasia boosted both parties.

Preferences from Sustainable Australia flowed most strongly to Animal Justice, pushing them ahead of the Liberal Democrats and very close to One Nation and the Christian Democrats, with those three parties now competing for the final two seats. Sustainable Australia preferences were also helpful to Labor.

Keep Sydney Open was then excluded, with their preferences most strongly boosting Labor, but also pushing Animal Justice ahead of One Nation and the CDP.

Liberal Democrats preferences were not as helpful to the other minor right-wing parties as preferences from left-wing parties had been to the leading left candidates, and mostly favoured the Nationals candidate who was clearly on track to win. This left sitting Christian Democrat MLC Paul Green 5408 votes short of second One Nation candidate Rod Roberts for the final seat.

Candidates
Sitting MLCs Shaoquett Moselmane, Adam Searle, Walt Secord, Mick Veitch (Labor), Mark Pearson (Animal Justice) and Justin Field are not running for re-election.

For most groups, only the first candidate is listed. The first three Greens and One Nation candidates are listed. The first eleven Coalition and Labor candidates are listed. Most groups ran at least 15 candidates. There are six groups that ran less than 15 candidates and thus don't have an above-the-line box - they are marked on the list.

  • J - John Ruddick (Liberal Democrats)
  • K - Oscar Grenfell (Independent) - No ATL box
  • L - Khalil Khay (Public Education Party)
  • M - Michael O'Neill (Informed Medical Options)
  • N - Robert Borsak (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • O - Jeremy Buckingham (Legalise Cannabis)
  • P - Danny Lim (Independent) - No ATL box
  • Ungrouped
      • Stefan Prasad
      • Colleen Fuller
      • Warren Grzic
      • Van Huynh
      • Archie Lea
      • Michelle Martin
      • Lee Howe
      • Mick Allen
      • R Cheetham
      • Guitang Lu
      • George Potkonyak

Assessment
The current Legislative Council consists of 22 members of parties of the right - 17 Coalition, 2 One Nation, 2 Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, and one Christian Democrat (technically now an independent). It also included 20 members of the left - 14 Labor, 3 Greens, 2 Animal Justice and one ex-Greens independent.

If polling reveals a shift to the left, it is quite plausible that the left could at least win half the seats, or possibly reach up to 22.

It is worth noting that the Coalition's relationship with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers is not very constructive, and so this should not be taken as a solid pro-government majority, but does give a sense of ideological trends. A Council with the Greens, Animal Justice and potentially other centre-left crossbenchers in the balance of power could look quite different, particularly if it is paired with a Labor government.

The Coalition won nine seats in 2015 and eight in 2019, so a repeat of the last election would see them lose a seat. This was offset by an increase in the number of right-wing minor parties, with the Christian Democrats losing one seat and One Nation winning two, so the last election did not change the 22-20 political divide.

The Greens currently only hold three seats but are only defending one. They should have no trouble winning back the seat they lost when Justin Field quit the party after the 2019 election, and may have some chance of winning a third seat, as they did in 2011.

One Nation are not defending any seats. They should win one seat, and could potentially win a second.

Animal Justice have a good chance of retaining their seat, but their vote is not high enough for that seat to be safe. Legalise Cannabis also has a real shot at winning a seat, and could potentially win that third left crossbench seat rather than the AJP.

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers should have a high enough vote to retain their seat but don't usually do well enough to be competitive for a second.

Results of the 2019 NSW Legislative Council election for the five highest-polling tickets

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187 COMMENTS

  1. Fred Nile has joined the Seniors United Party of Australia in May this year. However, at 87 I don’t believe he will run again. He had announced his retirement before the CDP imploded.

  2. With Matthew Mason-Cox back in the Liberal Party Fold, this would appear to be the only significant pre-selection challenge for the Liberal Party. I don’t see anything else changing.

    The thing to remember is that his seat for Pre-selection represents South-West Sydney into Southern Regional NSW. The big name in this area that could pose a challenge to his seat and would actually have some name recognition is Dr Peter Phelps, who is based in Queanbeyan and has previously been in the NSW LC, elected during the 2011 Landslide from Position 10 on the L/NP Joint Ticket.

    Dr Phelps had been working as an adviser/COS to Gladys before she resigned and he does have cross-factional support. I wouldn’t be surprised if he put his name up that everyone ganged up on Matthew Mason-Cox

  3. Hawkeye, Is Peter Phelps related to Kerryn Phelps? As far as I’m aware she has a brother named Peter.

    And if it is the case, why on earth wouldn’t he be running as an independent?

  4. Daniel, I crudely checked Wikipedia source and whilst Kerryn Phelps does have a brother named Peter, he is not the same one as the former NSW Liberal politician. Kerryn’s brother is an actor with no apparent political connections.

    Also I believe Kerryn was never a registered Liberal member as she served as part of Clover Moore’s independent team whilst on Sydney City council.

  5. Can confirm Dr Peter Phelps is no relation to Dr Kerryn Phelps.

    Dr Kerryn Phelps does have a Peter Phelps as a brother but he is an actor. A solid human as well as he is a Manly Sea Eagles Supporter.

    Dr Phelps has had no connection with the NSW Liberal Party as she originally ran on Clover Moore’s Independent Ticket. The pair did have a falling out, resulting in her quitting council and runnings for Wentworth when Malcolm Turnbull quit Parliament, winning and then losing to David Sharma

  8. Reported from SMH about the reshuffle that Labor is doing:
    *Walt Secord already announcing he is retiring
    *Rumoured that Adam Searle and Shaoquett Moselmane will be moved on
    *Dubbo Deputy Mayor Stephen Lawrence and public servent Sarah Kaine
    *Rumour that either Tania Mihailuk and Jihad Dib will be moved to the upper house to avoid a pre-selection fight or someone running in East Hills.

    Also in consideration are:
    *TWU Assistant Secretary Nick McIntosh
    *Canterbury-Bankstown Mayor Khal Asfour
    *Soliciter Kylie Rose

  9. Big lot of news coming out overnight, ahead of meetings for LC Nominees for Labor, sources coming from both the Australian and SMH:
    What looks likes for Labor LC team:
    Out – Walt Secord (Retired), Adam Searle (Dropped), Shaoquett Moselmane (Dropped)
    In – Stephen Lawrence, Sarah Kaine and Nick McIntosh.

    Couple of significant side pieces:
    *CFMEU reported to have been locked out of the Left Faction Conference after Darren and Michael Greenfield were suspended from the party for accepting bribes
    *They were expected to be the big supporters of Cameron Murphy to enter the LC, the same Cameron Murphy who lost twice in East Hills.
    *All 3 changes to the ticket have come from the ALP Right, suggesting a changing of the guard being driven by the SDA, TWU and Chris Minns Personally.
    *ALP Left are virtually heading the ticket up and look likely to take the ministries.

  10. I’m sure that if the Greens got enough primary vote for a third seat, it would spell at least a little bit of trouble for Animal Justice.

  11. Aye another Danny, I’ll change my name just to avoid any confusion.

    I agree considering allot of Animal Justice voters would vote for the Greens if AJ is not on the ballot, this is almost always the case in lower house seats. their preferences usually flow strongly to Labor.

    Lib Dems may have a shot at a seat if Leyonhjelm runs again even though he barely missed out last time, But I doubt he will run.

    One Nation could stand to gain ground and win seats in this class of council seats, and as for the Shooters, I doubt they will gain any ground due to recent events.

    NSW could really do with compulsory Pref voting, and if/when it does, what effect do people think it will have on the results for the LC?

  12. Based on the federal results in NSW for the senate, Animal Justice doubled its vote and the Greens got a big swing, as did UAP. There were swings away from both SFF and ON. The combined Senate vote for LNP/ALP/GRN went up at the federal election. This could mean fewer, non-Green crossbenchers if this is replicated at the state level.

    2019 was a high water mark for SFF and One Nation in NSW. SFF overperformed in rural NSW and was the non-Greens alternative in many rural seats. Mark Latham headed up the One Nation ticket and had name recognition and campaign experience. I doubt either would

    It’ll be interesting to see:
    – If a wildcard party, like Keep Sydney Open in 2019, runs.
    – If a long-running minor party like UAP or LDP or Legalise Cannibas puts on a performance.
    – How the preferencing will work.

  13. * I doubt either SFF or ON would be as successful in 2023 as they were in 2019. They may get one seat each but only just.

  14. Disagree massively with CPV. I’m a fan of OPV insofar as why should someone give preferences to a candidate that they don’t want to give preferences to? OPV gives full voting freedom to the person casting the vote.

  15. Agree hawkeye I like optional preferences becuase I only need to select candidates I prefer and leave the rest blank. like. federal elections with compulsory preferences I usually just donkey vote the remaining candidates who I probably dislike equally.

  16. Animal Justice getting their first up depends squarely on Greens not getting their third up. If Lynda-June Coe (third Greens candidate) is elected before Animal Justice preferences are due to expire, then this could well be the end of Mark Pearson in the Legislative Council

    Thanks @Daniel T for name change. Previously I commented as “Emilius.”

    An example for the potential goods of partial CPV in upper houses is demonstrated in the electoral situation in Senate elections in NSW, where the sixth seat has historically been Liberal vs One Nation, or Greens vs One Nation. Many progressive or left leaning voters will not preference Liberal in their Senate ballot, and the problem of this is that they’re not using their full vote value to express a preference for the Liberal over One Nation – the same is true for conservative voters expressing a preference for One Nation over the Greens, or Liberal over One Nation. Granted, generally the final bit of vote value is pittance once your vote already been used to elect a senator (becoming a proportion of a vote following electing a preferenced candidate), but the philosophy of it still stands. Of course, the problem of CPV is informal voting when people actually don’t have a preference.

  17. Labor to win 7 to 8 here..if polling correct maybe could do better but I have doubts given the fragmented vote in upper house. The alp ticket is not set in stone as both are only factional recomenations..the conference delegates decide. The left ticket may vary slightly but I suspect the right ticket will remain intact largely

  18. Given the deregistration of both the Christian Democratic Party and the Seniors United Party, I doubt that Fred Nile will retain his seat as an independent (if he doesn’t retire beforehand)

  20. In all seriousness though, I agree that it doesn’t seem like Fred Nile is going to recontest, indeed in Legislative Council sittings when he speaks, he sounds a lot more resigned than he used to. It remains to be seen whether a CDP lookalike party will emerge from the fray between now and March.

  22. Don’t doubt that in the slightest. The question is, who will get his (and the CDPs) preferences without a comparable Christian party, and how will that change the composition of the council.

  23. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/latham-plans-to-quit-parliament-and-run-again-atop-one-nation-ticket-20221011-p5bou5.html
    Mark Latham has announced that he intends to resign from the Legislative Council in early March 2023 to place himself on the top of the 2023 One Nation ticket, which will give the party 3 MLCs if he wins.
    Time will tell whether his plan actually goes ahead. If he goes with it, it could further split some of the ex-CDP or conservative Liberal vote

  25. The other thing to note with all this “Mick Veitch has been dis-endorsed so Labor has turned its back on Country NSW”, is that Stephen Lawrence from Dubbo has been pre-selected. Plus there ae several other Country representatives on the ALP Upper House ticket

  27. Emily Suvaal lives in Cessnock. The Cessnock Advertiser certainly claims her as one of their own.
    https://www.cessnockadvertiser.com.au/story/7905524/cessnock-nurse-poised-for-seat-in-parliament/

    Courtney Houssos grew up in Forster, though now lives in Sydney.

    Does it count for this debate if someone grew up in the country but then lives in Sydney or vice versa? And which is more worthy?

    Perhaps I should have said “several other representative with country links”. I just found it interesting that ABC News this morning repeated the State Government media release that Labor had turned its back on Country NSW by the non selection of Mick Veitch, but didn’t mention Lawrence being selected on the ticket for the first time. Perhaps the ABC can’t afford to do independent research of its stories anymore.

  28. From what I understand around the traps, Stephen Lawrence is despised by certain elements of NSW Labor. I think they may be trying to slide him in very quietly, given his recent behaviour on Dubbo Council

  30. Hawkeye..handing out for Cameron Murphy I was talking to Stephen Lawrence he was a nice person and will be a fine mp.i have not heard anyone in the nsw alp speak badly of him. Not sure where you got your information from

  32. @Mick – A few of my contacts around Dubbo, who stated that he has been a complete bully in the area. I know that his attacks on Ben Shields were described by some as unhinged, even by Labor Members.

    Might be more of a personality issue between the pair of them.

  33. * Electoral Legislation Amendment Bill 2022
    https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/bills/Pages/bill-details.aspx?pk=3988

    This passed through parliament today and awaiting assent.

    Various funding items, logos on ballot papers from 1st October 2024, various postal voting administrative matters including a longer time to return them, introduction of some flexibility for the “6 metre rule” at venues and interestingly, early voting to commence from the Saturday before election day.

    * Electoral Legislation Amendment Bill (No 2) 2022
    https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/bills/Pages/bill-details.aspx?pk=4020

    Only recently introduced but working it’s way through. Smaller number of administrative items but of note is that NSWEC might be using the AEC’s new postal voting materials and the offering of voting centres outside Australia.

  34. Latham’s plan is “interesting”. I wonder if it will see ON ending up with 4 seats?

    It will also be interesting to see AJP’s results. Though they received a swing to them at the Federal election for NSW Senate, they had Group A. Personally, I think Pearson will lose his seat. Perhaps if they preselected someone with existing profile they could “revitalise” their chances.

    Also given The Green’s strong third candidate – Lynda-June Coe, I would think they have a good chance of replicating the 2011-high of three seats. The question is though: at an election where the swing will be to ALP, where will the votes for The Greens come from? Perhaps the 2019 KSO vote?

  35. AJP have scraped into parliament at the last two elections but their vote did go up in 2019 and they seem to do very well on preferences.

    As for the Greens, they do seem to be doing reasonably well but the particular identity of the #3 candidate probably doesn’t have much to do with her chances of re-election. It’s also perfectly possible the ALP could gain a swing and yet lose votes to the Greens.

  36. Labor sure of 7 the eighth seat will be close. Latham ‘s stunt is interesting it could well backfire. The obvious question is .. having 4 years to go. Why did you not stay there… liberals 6 to 7.. most likely 7. This is like 3d chess.. but I would be surprised if the onp don’t get at least 1.. but again their voters are not influenced by logic

  37. Mick, he’s answered that question. He’s not saying because he thinks he can win another seat by re-appearing on the ballot.

    Honestly it’s time to elect the whole LC at once.

  40. what is happening with liberals upper house ticket is mathew mason cocks going to run again i thought after his run for upper house president he would be chalinged

  41. Upper House Ticket for Liberal Party likely won’t be decided until the rest of the pre-selections are completed. Expected in January.
    Early rumour is that Matthew Mason-Cocks might be challenges by Dr Peter Phelps.

  44. 21 to be elected quota 4.5%
    Alp 7 to 8 libs 7 gr 2
    Remainder 4 to 5
    And the contenders are
    ?
    Onp hold none at moment
    Ajp hold 1
    Right of some sort Uap?
    The 3 above
    Quota would half if all 42 elected as one

  45. Opinions on Mark Lathams attempt. To create his own
    Casual vacancy in the prev group where onp hold 2
    Into the second group where they hold nil.
    So increase onp in the upper house by 1 to 2
    Why has no one else tried this ?

  46. will it work though latham haws not be helped buy the qld shooting plus if only one gets electid he is deniying a new one nation person a seat and it will still be just him and robberts

  47. he is no hanson on dr phelps maybi he could run but he was quit a liability sort of like mason cocks who chalinged mclaron jones the premiers pick for president he made some strange speechs phelps defending dictators attacking climate change how ever since 2019 jhe is a senyor advisor to both berijecklien and perottit as premiers

  49. Aaron, even if it is just Latham elected, one nation will still get to appoint a replacement for Latham’s old seat thus increasing their numbers by one.

  50. Mick, I’ve also been pondering why this kind of manoeuver hasn’t been tried before and the conclusion I’ve come to is that there haven’t been very many, if any, candidates who would have benefitted from it previously.
    The major parties are assured of winning several seats each, and in any case their campaigns are focused on the lower house contest so personal vote effects are unlikely to factor into their upper house prospects. The Greens have their own practices with respect to preparing the way for future candidates and likewise it seems to me that their vote is more a party identity Greens vote than a personal vote for candidates in the LC. This is also applicable to some of the other minor parties that have been represented, Shooters Fishers and Farmers MLCs for instance never relied much on a personal vote, and the timing of their respective ascensions wouldn’t have given room for any casual vacancy shenanigans even if they had.
    Just about the only MLC I can think of who might have been able to pull this kind of thing off is Fred Nile. It’s possible his personal vote could have saved the second Christian Democrat seat in 2019, but considering he is now retiring anyway it’s entirely possible that he didn’t want to add another four years to his term even then.

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