Legislative Council – NSW 2023

The last time latham realy made the news was with his attack on labor mp anna wotson allowed buy the terible upper house labor health chair Gregg donnelly who is arguably the most socialy conservative nsw upper house mp and hopefuly the shoppies union will not re select him foor 2023 apart from perhaps tania davies he is very anti abortion and anti woman rights

So rath replaces poulos in third spot on liberal ticket he was going to be lower poulos being a close allie of matt kean being dumped would have ben imbarasing

According to the NSW parliament website, Latham resigned on 2 March, and Maclaren-Jones has not resigned yet.

it is a little suprising that dubo cowncilor and close minns allie Stephin lawrence is in the hard to winn sevin spot on labor ticket labor have not won sevin in a long time i think he was ment to be third but the soft left joined with the health survice union got up Cameron murphy taking a reajonal spot desbite living in east hills aparently he is a barister but if larwence does not get electid the only country labor upper house mp will be Emily suvaal desbite the claim labor will now have three winable spots

it seems mick Vietsch was not a very effective mp or shadow agriculture spokesman his suporters argued he should get the spot because he is a country member and did a lot of travel in country seats but given the premier and the nats were praising maybi the former roads minister was right when he said he did not give the government much trouble in his portfoleo and was not overly effective usually if your effective the government does not complain about a shadow minister getting dumped he had little to criticize the nats over there record in thecountry aerias he is running at number nine but labor will have to find a different minister if they winn maybi primrose and donnely can follow him labor needs to get rid of its bad upper house members

hopefuly the shoppies will not re preselect Gregg donnelly when he term exbires next election in 2023 he has been in parliament since 2005 and apart from campaign against womans rights and abortion and reajonal health the only time he was in the news was when he allowed mark latham to attack labor wip Anna wotson with out intervening and attacking bronie tayler suprised the shoppies continue to give him a seat but they claim they have moved on from there focus on moral ishues

Natasha Maclaren-Jones resigned her seat today (6 March)

suprised mclaron jones was chosen of the existing femqale upper house mps to recontest must have been a factional deal with Hawke given her spot will be filled buy felow hawke member Scot farlow natulie waard would have been a better pick has any body heard of mclaron jones

I know her very well Aaron and the change is not actually factional related, as you may think. As I have mentioned before, Natasha MacLaren-Jones is now based in the Southern Highlands and the position that she is taking up on the ticket is the South-West Regional LC Rep, rather than an At-Large member. It makes complete sense that she switched over.

I’m a rusted on Labor type but will be happily voting for Danny Lim in the upper house.

i think its factional if it is not whiy will her vackintsey be filled buy fellow sentre right mp Scott farlow whiy not a moderit or hard right well her husband Damian is chief of staff to the curent local government minister Wendey tuckerman who might lose her seat there is no reason for mclaron jones to runshe still has four years left on her term

it makes sence could not move to lower house as she lives in Golbern

on upper house perottits stratigy on mclaron jones geting top spot to help female voters seems strange mclaron jones has little profile any way is hardly a house hold name and with some acseptions most upper house mps would struggle to have much name recognition as votes are based of party ticket in stead oflower house where candadates are mor well known Sarah mitchel wouldbe the most well known nswupper house minister and labor posibly moohkey

No mention of Legalise Cannabis? They just elected 2 MP’s in Vic with a statewide vote of 4%+ Probably because you don’t like Buckingham? Not very sharp to leave them out. The LC’s 2022 NSW Senate vote was 2.6%. This time they have 23 LA candidates, a high profile ticket and are advertising. Antony Green says they will likely win a spot.

Weak

Oh for gods sake calm down. I wrote that assessment months ago. I will update it on the weekend. You can also see it’s out of date because of the reference to Nile.

I have said this more than once if you don’t like what Ben Raue does then go jump in the lake.

This is an amazing service which does not cost anything if you don’t want to contribute.

Danny Lim has run a few times at federal and state elections. He has no party name or is grouped with a bunch of randoms on the upper house ballot paper. With his profile and name recognition, half the job is already done. All he needs is a serious campaign as well as media attention and an army of volunteers and maybe preferences from left-wing parties will follow. Election quotas are pretty low so if he were serious, he would stand a chance.

He is just in it for fun and he seems happy to just have his name on the ballot paper.

To be honest Danny Lim is a lot better than much of the minor party nutjobs that make it into the upper house. If he actually had a serious campaign with an army of volunteers like the teals, I can see him being able to poll a quota on his own.

I’m willing to tip 2 on seats with Mark Latham on the ticket and conservatives looki n g for an alternative who will stand up for them

turns out latham only got one seat and gthankfuly the former labor mps politicialcorear is finished

Aaron, sadly she can still be appointed to fill Latham’s four-year vacancy to 2027. Based on how she looked during her ABC spat with Matt Kean, despite it being clear at that point in the night that she probably wouldn’t be elected, I’d say that Latham has probably promised her that vacancy. That would make the NSW branch of One Nation majority-controlled by the reject dregs at the bottom of the ALP Right barrel.

“I’m willing to tip 2 on seats with Mark Latham on the ticket and conservatives looki n g for an alternative who will stand up for them”

Looks like you’ll have a Liberal Democrats MP instead of a second One Nation MP. It’s a… different kind of right wing representation.

The LDP has well and truely become a basketcase. I’ve got a good friend of mine who left the Liberal Party to join the LDP and then to One Nation (fun fact: he is also Korean so, go figure). If you thought the factionalism that was going on with the Liberal Party could get back at times, you ain’t seen nothing yet until you get into the LDP, where it is 100% about “who is the more pure libertarian”.

According to him, the party has been infiltrated these days by right wingers from the Liberal Party who are trying to get themselves rebranded as Libertarians, much like what some are doing in the US. John Ruddick is case in point, as he was the leader of the attempted Right-Wing revolt within the Liberal Party years ago around preselection processes that lead to what is known formally as the “Warringah Solution” but, in effect, it is voting by plebiscite for preselection. I’ve dealt with him personally and lets just say he loves to attempt a good stand-over people

It looks like SFF and AJP will battle for the last spot. AJP won a seat last time with a slightly lower PV. This election, Labor and Greens preferences may save AJP. SFF may be one of those cyclical parties that come for a few terms and then leave, much like Christian Democrats or the Australian Democrats. LDP had SFF as one of their preferences on their HTV cards. One Nation had vote 1 only on their HTV cards.

@Hawkeye, Mark Latham also left a major party, joined LDP and then One Nation. He left because he’s too socially conservative for them I believe. Sorry to say this but it appears LDP will win a spot. I am not surprised by what you mentioned about the LDP’s inner workings. It’s modelling itself on the US Republicans and the party’s built around one person. If a second or third parliamentarian get in at a future election, I’d bet that they will quit the party mid-term like many UAP and ONP senators have.

SFF had a chance to establish themselves but their leader is a piece of work and all their lower house MPs left (they all got swings to them this election as independents). I guess that’s the fate of most minor parties, especially on the right.

If AJP can get Farrelly and Socialist Alliance preferences too, maybe they could get the last seat. We will see – I am not expecting it but it would be funny if they got that last seat due to right wing parties’ inability to preference each other.

There’s hardly information on preferencing and exhaustion of votes in the LC vote.

Methinks that if you numbered every box on the small LA ballot paper, then chances are, you’ll number more than one box on the big LC ballot paper. We’re creatures of habit. Conversely, if you just voted 1 on the LA ballot, you’re probably only going to number one or two on the LC ballot paper.

Centre-left and left-wing parties like Labor, Greens, AJP etc. are way more likely to ask voters to number all or most boxes on the LA ballot and number multiple parties on the LC ballot. From memory, Liberals HTV put LDP as second and that’s it. One Nation didn’t preference anyone on their HTV and their voters were the most likely to exhaust their LA votes in 2019.

@SP, I agree that Farrelly’s preferences, with a combination of ALP and Greens preferences, could push AJP over the line. AJP got their highest vote ever at this election.

wonder who will be get the last upper house spot one ldp or sff

Aaron, I’m really curious why you think those parties are in contention for the last seat (especially if “one” is supposed to be One Nation – they are going to win one seat on first preferences and then be no hopers for a second). Every news outlet and observer I’m aware of is in agreement that the last seat is a contest between Animal Justice and the 7th Coalition candidate (Rachel Merton), with the Coalition favoured at this stage. While it’s not impossible, in theory, that some surprise could yet emerge as preferences are thrown, I think it’s highly implausible that the LDP will fall below the SFF *and* Merton *and* Animal Justice, to say nothing of more outlandish suppositions.

Has (L) Learner Latham been returned? And what about Tanya? Has she failed to get the 2nd spot?

Also I thought I read that Fred Nile was retiring, so why does the ABC say he has been defeated if he didn’t run?

One Nation has 1.27 quotas in the progressive count at time of writing (which won’t change enough to alter the outcome) so Latham has been returned but Mihailuk has not. I’ve seen a lot of reports asserting that she will be appointed to Latham’s casual vacancy for the remaining 4 years of his original term, but I don’t know if this is confirmed and personally I don’t place a lot of faith in Latham or his party to hold up their end of the deal even if that was in fact the deal. This result (sans my speculation about the casual vacancy) is also clearly stated on the ABC’s coverage of the LC count so I’m not sure how you missed it when you saw the bit about Fred Nile.

About Nile, well, that baffled a lot of observers because he did technically run, but as a second place to his wife Silvana and without a box above the line. It is anyone’s guess why he did such a thing, it would seem much simpler and cheaper to simply retire. Nevertheless the fact of the matter is that he was on the ballot, albeit in a position that was unwinnable for multiple reasons, and so counts as a defeated member rather than a retiring one.

Dryhad, I read from some sources and other posters on this site that candidates who run for re-election (albeit in an unwinnable spot) may be eligible for reimbursement of campaign funds if they poll over 4%. Although I think Fred Nile may have got <4% vote and thus would have been ineligible anyway.

It is mathematically impossible for Nile to have polled over 4% because at time of writing the Others/Below the Line bucket (which also includes some informal ballots) is sitting at 4% total and neither of the Niles are able to receive above the line votes or preferences. The progressive count for Group G – the Niles – is in point of fact 0.03%. So it’s dubious to me that Nile would be entitled to any reimbursement or incentive for recontesting in the manner in which he did, and because it stems from the ballot structure and known behaviour with regard to above and below the line voting it should have been obvious to him prior to nominating.

Yes, agree with your assessment Dryhad. It was a foolish move for Nile, and he would have been better off just retiring instead.

Over 60% of the way through the Check Count for the LC but reporting the following likely scenario:
Labor – 8
Coalition – 6
Greens – 2
One Nation – 1

This currently leaves 4 seats. Expect very little flow-on from Labor and No Flow-on from the Greens. This then leaves:
Legalise Cannabis – 0.79 (Likely to win)
Lib Dems – 0.75 (Likely to win)

Ticking those two off, you are left with 2 seats, which will be between:
SFF – 0.68
Liberal 7th – 0.66
Animal Justice – 0.47

My prediction is that this will be decided from the flow-on from SAP, Group A and Elizabeth Farrelly.

I wouldn’t be surprised if AJP gets pushed into one of the seats off the back of preferences, meaning that it is a scrap between SFF and Liberal 7th.

Do we know when the button is pushed?

@Hawkeye_au

NSWEC website has next Wednesday 19th as the estimated date for distribution of LC preferences.

@hawkeye it will be liberal/nats and sff Animal justice is too low and not enough left parties to get them over the line