Lake Macquarie – NSW 2023

IND 23.4% vs ALP

Incumbent MP
Greg Piper, since 2007.

Geography
Hunter. Lake Macquarie covers those parts of the City of Lake Macquarie on the west side of Lake Macquarie itself, as well as parts of the City to the north of the lake. The seat covers Cardiff, Morriset, Toronto and Fassifern.

Redistribution
Lake Macquarie lost small amounts of territory in two spots, losing Cardiff South to Charlestown and losing a small area to Swansea in the south-eastern corner of the seat. These changes increased the independent margin from 22.1% to 23.4%.

History
The electoral district of Lake Macquarie has existed since 1950. The seat was held by the ALP from 1950 until the 2007 election.

Jim Simpson won the seat in 1950. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 1956 until the government lost power in 1965. He held the seat until his death in 1968.

The 1969 by-election was won by Lake Macquarie Shire President Merv Hunter. He held the seat until his retirement in 1991. He was succeeded by his son Jeff Hunter. He won re-election in 1995, 1999 and 2003.

In 2007, Hunter was defeated by independent Lake Macquarie Mayor Greg Piper by 106 votes. Piper was re-elected much more comfortably in 2011, 2015 and 2019.

Candidates

  • Jason Lesage (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Greg Piper (Independent)
  • Felipe Gore-Escalante (Sustainable Australia)
  • Joshua Beer (Liberal)
  • Steve Ryan (Labor)
  • Kim Grierson (Greens)

    • Assessment
    Lake Macquarie is a very safe seat for Greg Piper.

    2019 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
    Greg Piper Independent 26,811 53.5 +11.1 54.7
    Jo Smith Labor 10,735 21.4 -9.2 20.5
    Lindsay Paterson Liberal 7,742 15.5 -1.3 15.6
    Kim Grierson Greens 2,517 5.0 +0.1 4.9
    Laurance Taranto Animal Justice 1,481 3.0 +0.6 2.9
    Marie Rolfe Sustainable Australia 796 1.6 +1.6 1.5
    Informal 1,827 3.5

    2019 two-candidate-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
    Greg Piper Independent 31,164 72.1 +11.4 73.4
    Jo Smith Labor 12,053 27.9 -11.4 26.6

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
    Jo Smith Labor 16,390 57.4 -5.8 56.3
    Lindsay Paterson Liberal 12,180 42.6 +5.8 43.7

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Lake Macquarie have been split into three parts: central, north and south.

    Independent MP Greg Piper won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against Labor) in all three areas, ranging from 66% in the north to 78% in the centre.

    The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in the centre to 15.8% in the south.

    Voter group LIB prim IND 2CP Total votes % of votes
    North 15.0 66.0 10,564 22.2
    Central 12.3 77.6 9,053 19.0
    South 15.8 74.2 8,488 17.8
    Pre-poll 16.4 81.1 11,268 23.6
    Other votes 18.6 65.7 8,280 17.4

    Election results in Lake Macquarie at the 2019 NSW state election
    Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Labor), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidate Greg Piper, Labor and the Liberal Party.

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    13 COMMENTS

    1. In a minority government, Who is Mr Piper most likely to support? If he retires this should be a Labor seat with a margin of around 10%, however this seat like some areas in the Hunter/Central, trending away from Labor. 5% swing against Labor on TPP basis here last election but I expect it to bounce back a bit.

    2. I think Greg Piper is a left leaning independent, which would suggest he may prefer to back Labor in the event of a hung parliament. Then again, I also believe that he could be a Labor defector who hails from the right/conservative faction because he successfully challenged a sitting Labor MP.

      With the NSW Coalition being more moderate than its federal counterpart, this fact could mean he would also be open to supporting the LNP in the even neither side gets a majority.

    3. Greg Piper has always listed as an independent, from his time on Lake Macquarie Council to the present day. While he has always leaned left-of-centre, he developed a very solid reputation as a genuine independent, in what is normally a Labor Stronghold.

    4. Reckon Piper sides with coalition. Some very strong relationships have developed over 12 years and as 2023-2027 is likely his last term he really won’t care about perceived electoral consequences.

    5. If there’s a minority govt scenario without the SFF independents winning, if McGirr supports the Coalition I can see Piper joining him. Greenwich is a bigger question mark.

    6. Whoever Piper supports in a Minority Government will depend on how pragmatic he is about his long term career as a local MP versus his loyalty to relationships built with Coalition figures over the last decade. The 2PP count suggests locals would rather he back Labor and might judge him poorly if he becomes a kingmaker for the other side ala Oakeshott & Windsor.

      I suspect he and Alex Grenwich have already made commitments to the current Government, but Alex sits in a very different part of the state.

    7. I think any cross-bencher should support whoever has more seats out of LNP and Labor+Green (Assuming that Labor and Greens are willing to work together)

      If the numbers are even or within 1 then it will be interesting to see how things work out

    8. Some commentators have clearly failed to grasp the fact, despite his record over the past 16 years that Greg votes according what he believes to be the best interests of his constituents, and by his conscience. He does not favour one party over another and never has.

      Always was, always will be a true Independent.

    9. As correctly predicted by many, Piper indeed has been chosen as speaker by Minns. He will almost certainly get unanimous support in the chamber.

      He deserves the roll, he has served his community honorably for the past 16 years, and considering he may retire at the next election (Like Peter Wellington did when he was speaker in QLD) being gifted the job as speaker is perhaps better than being the leader of the opposition or premier.

    10. This will be a key seat when Greg Piper retires. Some suburbs seem to be trending Liberal and the Liberals got 58% notional TPP in 2019. 2023 on the other hand saw a big swing agains the Liberals in Newcastle.

    11. *Labor got 58% notional TPP which is significantly less than every other Newcastle seat besides Port Stephens

    12. By the way I’ll be in Newcastle this weekend. I will also be in all three federal Newcastle seats in the coming months.

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