Kogarah – NSW 2023

I wonder how much Labor is sweating about this seat. The margin is razor thin on paper but they’ve known that since 2019. The Liberals’ overperformance last time was probably because of a local ethnic Chinese Liberal candidate and accusations of Michael Daley’s racism and it was in the leadup to Scott Morrison’s election “miracle”.

I predict that there’ll be some “recalibration” and Hurstville and Beverly Hills in the west and northwest will follow the federal trend to some extent and swing back to Labor. The LNP will probably put more resources into sandbagging their own seats.

I think Chris Minns should be fine but no doubt both parties will spend a lot of resources here. He now has the profile as Labor leader and the overlapping federal areas swung very strongly in the federal election. Unless the Libs choose Scott Yung or another ethnic Chinese candidate they will have no hopes in winning here.

The leadership Buffer should add another couple of PP without even factoring in any swing.

This should be a Labor win with the margin sitting around the 60:40 mark. Fairly safe but there is a slow trend away, with some possible creep over from Oatley and along that Forest Road Run

I think Labor will probably win back majority of the swing it had against them in Kogarah last time due to multiple factors like Chris Minns Being Labor Leader, The Big swing to Labor in Barton and The affect of the Michael Daley Comments eroded. But I wonder if Scott Yung will have another shot at Kogarah.

I agree that Labor will get some recovery from 2019 after Michael Daley’s comments impacted the result here, also the Liberal vote in Blakehurst transferred from Oatley will soften some what with the loss of Mark Coure personal vote. However, i feel the Liberal vote in Kogarah Bay/Carrs Park is too low and should be at least 60% based on demographics.

After what we saw at the federal election, will an ethnic Chinese person contest for a Dutton-era or Perrottet-era Liberal Party?

I think Minns is safe due to the reasons mentioned in this thread, but it could be very interesting him being on such a small margin.

Unlike Kirkup, a situation where Minns loses his seat but Labor wins the election isn’t completely farfetched. It could even impact the willingness of independents to negotiate with Labor in a hung parliament.

Gambling whistleblower Troy Stolz has announced he is also running in this seat.

News has risen that ClubsNSW whistleblower Troy Stolz has decided to run as an independent here, spefically to challenge Chris Minns’ lack of an anti-pokies stance. Could make things very interesting if he gains traction.

Suburban independents don’t do well generally. Look at how poorly they all fared in Victoria. Fowler was an extreme case because of the parachuting effect. Nothing to see here.

I don’t think he lives in the seat? Does anyone know

Don’t think his candidacy will effect the result.. which will be a
Minns win with a probable increased majority. A thought out of left field David Elliott is premier with a pro pokies stand?

I agree with Adam that Suburban independents dont do well generally especially in marginal/competitive seats. Fowler was an example not just due to the parachuting effect but also due to the fact that it was a very safe Labor seat so Liberal voters tactically voted for Dai Le knowing that there was no chance of a Liberal victory that is not the case in Kogarah.

The seat seams to place working class, middle class and upper class into one seat something like a mini version of the federal seats of Reid and Parramatta

Yes is split between the levels of income but remember Minns had a 4% swing against him. In 2019. The tinge in this seat is pro Labor. Also the liberal suburbs of Blakehurst and Connells point have been in the seat when won by labor before. They held the seat in 2011 clearly the worst alp result in over 50 years

the swing against Minns in 2019 was mainly due to the anti-chinese sentiment coming from the previous Labor leader
I think his local profile helped him retain and expect it to be more comfortable this time

Banzai agreed

The Libs really need Scott Yung to run if they are to have any chance. The Daley comments in 2019 still saw swings in other Chinese dominated areas against Liberals like Ryde and Strathfield. I’m a local here last time and Scott really knows how to campaign and rally people. He outnumbered and out-campaigned Minns. He has big supporters behind him across different sections of the community and had the support of many former Liberal leaders. Get him to run and give him a ministry if he wins?

Ridiculous how the Liberals have not taken advantage of putting pressure on Chris Minns in his seat… this is his Archilles heel

Troy Stolz would be better off running for the upper house if he’s on a single-issue platform.

I suspect Minns will get the ‘leader’s rally’ or a swing to him at the election as party leader.

@William If I were Scott Yung, I would much rather wait out for David Coleman to retire and contest the Banks preselection then rather than try here. Chris Minns will likely get a surge here while the Libs will be more focused on sandbagging other seats. Even if Scott Yung does get elected, this seat is still incredibly marginal and could very easily flip back to Labor unlike in Banks where the Lib should be pretty safe there now. If Labor couldn’t win it in 2022, they’re not going to win it any time soon.

Big swing to Minns here — they had their best chance in 2019, the Libs didn’t capitalise.

I don’t think there is much incentive for Scott Yung to run in Kogarah. He would be the ideal candidate for Banks – local, proven campaigner through Kogarah, and has experience outside of politics. Would have a positive spill on effect on the image of his party..

Agreed, why would Scott Yung run again in Kogarah? He’s already proven to be a strong asset for the Libs and deserving of a safer seat and possibly a cabinet role rather than a seat they are unlikely to win or hold long-term.

Labor is really confident on retaining this seat to the point they don’t even have a plan in the event Chris Minns loses his seat.

There’s a chance Scott can win. But surely he’s not mad

I am thinking Scott Yung could have been pre-selected for Parramatta but i dont think Miranda would have been a good seat for him. The Shire is known for its localism and if it was seen as parachute candidate then he would be in trouble. However, the Upper House is often a good place for strong candidates who cannot find a seat. Bridget Sakr who ran in Strathfield in the by-election should also have been considered for the Upper house.

@Nimalan The Libs seem pretty likely to lose Parramatta so I’m not sure that would be too appealing for Scott Yung. I was thinking a possible agreement could be Scott Yung contesting Kogarah this time in exchange for state executive support and endorsement for a tilt in preselection for Banks when David Coleman retires which seems pretty likely before the next election given the rumours.

@ Dan M, that is a fair point about Parramatta running in Banks longer term while Coleman retires is a good option. Ryde is another option i think but Miranda/Vauclause probably not based on very different demographics.

Scott Yung officially turned down running here. Chris Minns would be feeling a lot more secure in this seat now.

I don’t think Chris Minns was too concerned. His margin was shaved down to 0.1% because heavily-Liberal Blakehurst and marginally-Liberal Kogarah Bay got brought in via the redistribution.

I’ve been mainly a Labor voter my whole life but I voted for Scott Yung last time because of him the person. He brought it down to 1.2%

There was a swing to the liberals of 4% to the liberals in
2019 which will be reversed. Expect Minns to hold with a approx 5% margin or better

Agreed. That 2019 Lib candidate was an extraordinary campaigner. Labor to increase their margin to at least 5%

While I do t see them winning since he now has a higher profile the libs can force him onto the defensive so he can’t be seen elsewhere

You can’t have a more ideal candidate than Scott Yung. With him refusing to contest, I can’t see the Liberals being competitive in this seat or Chris Minns having any worries.

They should recruit Scott federally — he will do well for their brand and campaign. An Australian of Asian background, a background in business, and can articulate a message – what Rishi Sunak is doing with the conservatives in UK

The Libs finally found someone, Craig Chung to run for Kogarah. He’s a good candidate, should have been endorsed for Bennelong in the federal election, but I’m not sure this is the right election for him or the right seat given he’s from the Ryde/Eastwood area and that his candidacy was announced so late.

I agree that Craig Chung is a last-minute, parachuted pick who would’ve been better off contesting further north. Drummoyne or somewhere north of the Parramatta River are closer to home at least.

I’m interested to see how areas with large Chinese-Australian communities will vote (e.g. Kogarah, Ryde, Burwood) given the correlation between the demographics and the swing to Labor at the 2022 federal and Victorian elections.

Minns will be fine. There are an enormous amount of yard signs around for him. The Hurstville parts of this seat swung hard to Labor at the federal election, and will do so again here (off a low base due to Daley’s stupid 2019 comments).

At the federal election the Labor candidate was of Asian descent. This time the Liberal candidate is Asian. I am sure there will be Liberal posters around as well.

if Labor lose here they probably wont be in government and Chris Minns will be out anyway

If Chung is half as proactive as Yung was last time around, he may have a chance of causing an upset or continuing to make this marginal.
I can’t see Minns increasing this seat into safe territory this election.
He was visibly irritable and frustrated by Scott’s rapport with voters at 2019 pre-poll and then again on election day.
I think the biggest loser with Albanese/Chalmers’ super announcement will be Chris Minns. Albo and co were smart enough to make the announcement well before the Federal election but Perrottet should be leaning into it with SMSF retirees.
Link to cost of living and that a state Labor government could introduce more levies and increase land tax, etc (purely speaking politically).
This is a massive gift for state Libs, and can’t help but think Albo would’ve been better keeping his powder dry in the announcement until after the state election

Apparently Chung was door knocking today in Hurstville, South Hurstville and Blakehurst, but still only Minns’s posters around. Do people think Craig had any chance especially considering he doesn’t live locally?

@Tijana there’s the argument that he grew up in Kogarah Bay but I’d say he has better connections in a seat like Ryde or Epping than here. He is a strong candidate though, his biggest problem is they announced his candidacy so late. I’m guessing he made a deal with the Lib head office to contest here this time in exchange for the Bennelong preselection in the next federal election or something like that.

@Dan M it seems that he is trying his best – was talking to people around Hurstville Station early this morning. I just don’t understand why there are no posters around as yet.

I respectfully disagree, Why would the Liberal candidate run in Bennelong next time if this is on the opposite side of Sydney than this electorate? Parachuted candidates have no chance.

It is no secret parachuted candidates care more about having a seat in parliament than representing the community they seek to represent. However this is like most politicians.

Liberals could pick this up once Minns retires potentially after serving a couple of terms as premier. Scott Young should hang on until then as he is only in his 30’s I believe. (correct me if I’m wrong)

@Daniel t unless he loses the election then he’s done

I don’t agree that Minns will lose when the election when the alternate is an unpopular premier, Perrottet has little chance, I wish election day would arrive already. Has the campaign even officially been launched yet?

Albanese will do a big launch I believe today, federal Labor is very popular in NSW right now so it could boost Labors numbers. (Campaign launches usually provide a small bump for the party) the question is, how long the post launch/convention bounce will last.

During the 2022 federal election the polls evidently tightened when the Libs launched their campaign, when the Libs launch theirs in NSW it should akso tighten but it almost certainly won’t be enough.

The liberal party’s dirty tricks department ‘s leaking Mr Daley’s I’ll advised speech in the blue mountains caused a bigger swing here and Oatley. The results in both seats was close to the worst for Labor in 10 to 15 years. This won’t be repeated and there will be swings back to labor

@mick it was mr daleys fault for saying it. @daniel t not necessarily if liberals hold their current seats or retake barown and/or murray they will be in prime position to form govt. it will be a seat by seat battle. if liberals finish with more seats they will get at least 4 of the independants and if those country independants want to be like oakshott and windsor theyll be finished come next election