Kiama – NSW 2023

obviously labor and greens are preference swapping that would be the case even if ward wasnt in disfavour as he is effectively a liberal. the conservative vote should push one oor the other over the line in order to prevent laor winning i woud think.

no ward andgibbens will split the conservative leading to a labor winn

@aaron and theyre preferences will go to each other

Some commenters are surprisingly confident about the ability of Liberal and Ward voters to swap preferences when preference rates amongst major party and conservative voters tend to be very low. At the very least you have to expect half of them to exhaust, if not 70%.

Greens voters are much better at preferencing, but they will also make up a smaller share of the left-wing segment of the electorate.

Let’s say Labor polls 35%, and Greens 12%. That’s 47%. Then let’s say the Libs poll 25% and Ward 28%.

Then let’s say Greens preferences flow 80-20 to Labor and Liberal preferences flow 80-20 to Ward. And then you discount both preference flows by a 50% exhaust rate. I think that’s probably pretty generous to Ward while being accurate for the Greens.

If you do that, Labor gains 4.8% from the Greens and 2.5% from Liberal, and Ward gains 1.2% from the Greens and 10% from the Liberals. And Labor wins 42-39 (or 51.9-48.1). Now you might question the 7% swing to the ALP but it demonstrates the point.

Liberal voters in 2019 just marked ‘1’ 79.6% of the time. Let’s say 70% exhaust rate. Suddenly that margin becomes 54-46. In that scenario, Labor can win off 32% against 30% for Ward and 26% for the Liberals. Even though the right polls 54% of the total, they end up narrowly losing thanks to a higher exhaust rate and a larger proportion of the vote not being with the leading candidate.

@raue it’s all speculation until next saturday. Ward could get hit by a bus and the election rescheduled for all we know

And to be fair at last election there was only one liberal candidate now there are two just like there are 2 coalition candidates in Port macquarie

The Liberal HTV card says vote 1 and doesn’t preference anyone else.
Greens HTV – Greens, Labor only
Labor HTV – Labor, Greens, SAP, Liberal, Ind (Ward)

Ward will drive a wedge between Liberal and Labor with minimal impact on the Greens. Methinks Green voters will remain Green.

Because they just want to win the seat if they don’t win it. There’s noone else on the ticket they would rather. The two seats I wa t to watch and might take a while is Kiama and Orange where preferences will determine who wins and to be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if FPV is talked about soon in nsw

i dont think liberals will have much support most liberal voters will probaly vote one ward and not preferents the liberals would should help labor win hear libberals will be third behind labor and ward

Gibbins is parashuted in from the shire

Labor are at $6.50 to win Kiama and I think that’s way too long.
I can’t see a path to the Liberals winning. I think Ward is the favourite and rightly so, but with the tide coming in for Labor I think the scenario that Ben outlines above is very plausible.

currently the odds are favouring ward

What will be the liberal vote? Higher than the greens?
How much will people follow htv?
Will the green alp preference flow be stronger?

as an outsider I am in disbelief that Gareth Ward is even a chance

@mick unknown it depends on how much support he can take from the liberals personally I think either ward or the liberals should have withdrawn.

@mick,@ben,@votante: As campaign progresses it’s becoming clear that those who vote Liberal rather than Ward ie mainly women, clueless Liberal voters (no insult), survivors & their friends & police will not preference Ward. I think that this is one consideration (not the most important) why Liberals are not preferencing him. ben and votante, I think your call here is right, Mcinerney will win, as I have explained earlier. However there are a lot of dreadful lumpens in Albion Park (the Berlin sorts who could be bolsheviks one month and nazis the next) he will support Ward come Hell or High Mass.

personally I think either ward or the liberals should have withdrawn.

@ 🙂

The Liberals withdrawing was never going to happen. The major parties Labor, Liberals, and Nationals are not going to reward a previous MP who contests a seat as an independent by not standing a candidate. Even if they wanted to contest their seat with their party but couldn’t because they were suspended. Because it may create an incentive for other MP’s to defect and contest as an independent also.

If Gareth wins, it will be for one reason only – he’s a really good local MP.

Works his arse off and has achieved plenty (road bypasses are amazing). The fact that he is still a contender is amazing given the charges, let alone a front runner.

Who are we to judge the voters who judge him by his achievements rather than his personal life.

@strathman but its ok if Labor dont do either of those things?

Just deleted some comments speculating about the validity or not of the charges against Ward. The comments policy says you must not expose this website to legal action. Final warning

@raue sry if I did that was engaging in debate and didn’t consider that. Apologies if I inadvertently did wasn’t my intention. Sportsnet has resumed betting and ward is now the favourite, liberal 2nd and labor a close third will be interesting to watch on sat

It’s alright, just everyone remember there’s a criminal case before the court. It’s a fact of the election that Ward has been charged and may or may not be convicted. Anything else is outside the scope.

I mentioned yesterday the HTV preferences.

The Liberal HTV card says vote 1 and doesn’t preference anyone else.
Greens HTV – Greens, Labor only
Labor HTV – Labor, Greens, SAP, Liberal, Ind (Ward)

Ward will need a huge, insurmountable PV to get elected as neither the Liberals, Greens nor Labor want to preference him. I can see a path to victory for all three front-runners – Liberals, Labor and Ward himself. This depends on how the conservative vote will be split and how much Labor’s PV will be hit.

As Ben Raue mentioned in another post, most Green voters preference Labor and there’s a low exhaustion rate. I agree with Ben that conservative voters have a higher exhaustion rate and there’s a path for Labor to win. The Liberals can win if Ward falls to third place on the 3CP and his preferences end up going to the Liberals.

If what is the common wisdom is correct.. Ward will outpoll the liberals not the other way round. The liberal candidate is a blow in and chosen at the last possible minute. Almost as though it was designed for her to lose. Kiama only voted 53% liberal last time on primary votes with a better than expected result even winning in Albion Park. I would expect that with there is no way Mr Ward can poll an absolute majority… the preference flows to Labor I expect to be tighter.

@votante publicly neither the libs want to preference one another for obvious reasons but im sure voters of both would rather the other conservative candidate then labor

Both the Liberal candidate and Ward have issued 1-only HTVs, while Labor’s HTV puts the Liberal candidate second last and Ward last. Greens’ HTV gives the second preference to Labor and leaves the remaining box empty. Due to Ward’s significant personal vote, he is likely to take up a large proportion of the 2019 Liberal vote, making the Liberal party fall to the third place and the final two being Ward and Labor. Since Coalition voters have the highest rate of 1-only voting, the preference flow from Liberal to Ward is expected to be very weak with a high exhaust rate. Therefore, if Labor outpolls Ward, there’s no way for Ward to win on Liberal preferences. In order for Ward to win, Ward has to be so far ahead of Labor on first preferences that Labor can’t catch up on Greens and SAP preferences. This means Ward’s primary vote needs to be in the high 30s to low 40s, and the Liberal primary vote needs to be in the teens. I can’t see how the Liberal primary vote will drop to that level unless there are a lot of Liberal voters who strategically vote for Ward to keep Labor out. This means Labor is the favourite to win Kiama.

@josph the reason coaliion votes exhaust is because in 9/10 seats they are in the top 2 in the 10th seat they are 3rd and after that they just dont care. but when they have an alternative centre right party who is effectively from their own party i expect we will see preferences flowing. expect the same in port macquarie where both liberal and national are fielding a candidate. personally i think it s time to bring FPV to nsw and this will also allow the coalition to field two candidates in seats they dont have this will beceome benficial in future as rural electorates such as tweed and ballina turn urban and people turn away from the nats if liberals fieled a candidate there and they had FPV id wager lismore and ballina would not have fallen

AE Forecasts has Kiama at an ALP – LNP 2PP of 47.5 to 52.5, although they only give this outcome (a Labor Liberal 2PP) a 50% chance of occurring. I don’t live in, or anywhere near the seat, but considering it is so crucial, is the 2PP likely to be ALP vs LNP, ALP vs IND or LNP vs IND? Do Kiama voters care that the Liberals have parachuted in Gibbons?

i dought many voters hear would have heard of gibens before shehas allways been a back bencher how ever was a parliamentary secretary at one point she is not egzacktly high profile Ward wunning spliting the conservative vote should help labor hear

@bajoc im tipping IND v ALP here i think Gareth ward is popular enough to finish 2nd if not 1st as the ALP only polled 28% primiary here and believe he can possibly split that vote high enough to finish first . if he finishes 1st hes all but guaranteed but if he finished 2nd he’ll need those preferences from LIBs.

Today you could get McInerney at $ 3.50 behind Ward & Gibbens. Crazy odds. Some Liberal HTVs are getting out south of Albion Park but there the Kellie Marsh lumpens are scaring away official Liberals. However word is that Teachers fed activists were seen distributing Liberal HTVs at Albion Park – god knows where they got them? Also Liberals have done a mail out in Albion Park & some voters are coming in with the HTV concealed in their undies. This one will go to court of disputed returns if Ward loses and he will rely on presumption of innocence? and presumption against bail for Gibbens?

why would you need to conceal your HTV in your undies? do they really have no idea how to vote 1 ? its not like tehy ask you to do prefereences

@:) Obviously you have never seen the lumpens in action on the Albion Park polling booths. Frightening experience even for toughened Port Kembla MUA and Miners CFMEU members bussed in to stiffen Labor resistance. They need regular smoko breaks. Melanie Gibbons only lasted 20 minutes there on last Saturday before fleeing south. And she was in Gareth Ward’s protective custody all the time while she was there. SHE HAS NOT RETURNED. The answer to your question is that: 1. the lumpens are particularly aggressive (including on local social media forever) to those of their own who deviate from the Line; and 2. Ward’s HTV does not cover Upper House. Melanie Gibbon’s roaders in Albion Park are exercising extreme caution and subterfuge. Ballot papers are being bussed out regularly by NSW EC. (it is rumoured to avoid possible Arizona type blockades post ballot)

Definitely a bit of bully tactics from the Ward faithful at booths and definitely on local social media pages. A few voters taking both ward and liberal HTVs so might be doing so to vote ward lower house and lib upper house. I can’t see Ward retaining a similar support level as the last election. He will struggle if he doesn’t score close to 45 percent on primaries. Unless of course the majority of Liberal voters don’t follow the HTV and do preference him. Going to be an interesting one to watch.

@roger id be reporting that to the Electoral commision. i wish i lived there id be manning it all day. i pulled all day shifts at the vic and federal elections when i wasnt working

Why won’t the premier admit the only reason he wants Gibbons, is because he wants her with a high salary ministerial portfolio in a potential reelected coalition government? Corrupt bargain if you ask me.

Pre-selections are of no use anymore if captains picks are always getting their way. Dark day for democracy.

If the Kiama Liberals really wanted Ward, couldn’t they have took this fight to court to get Ward on the ballot as a Liberal? If his support in the local branches are as high as reported…

Daniel, the only reason why Ward can’t be the liberal candidate is because he has been effectively expelled from the party due to the ongoing court case. If ward is found innocent then I believe the liberal party will allow him to return.

Does anyone know the Sky News polling results for Kiama? I can find the TCP but not the primary vote numbers.

Illawarra Observer

Ward 40, Lab 33, Lib 11, Grn 8, Other 7.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrztuxEaEAEETvg.jpg

Thank you Douglas

Worth noting that said poll (along with the rest of the Sky “leaks”) is lacking disclosure on: sample size, date, methodology, 2CP calculation (apparently 53-47 Ward-Labor) and the group conducting the poll (other sources say it is financed by the Minerals Council).

Yes the sky polls are more questionable than most individual seat polls which are in themselves questionable. I add up something like 20 seats that are competitive for the coalition. To Labor teals and everyone.. the extent to which they fall determines the result. This will vary from seat to seat depending on its internal dynamics. It is possible that Labor wins say south Coast but fails to win upper Hunter.

@ :), Illawarra observer, Adda, douglas, Mick, Ben raue et all:I doubt that the Sky poll is much use except to excite/incite faithful. Being a cynic I think the posited transferred preferences all round are fantasy in this tough environment. Got a gig scrutineering Mt Terry on saturday night as democracy project so I will know before you.

@roger Thank you. I’ll be at Minnamurra Booth. Then to Kiama Leagues afterwards. Enjoy the day!

I’ll be at Minnamurra Booth and then off to Kiama Leagues club afterwards. Enjoy your day!

Liberal vote surely not as low as 11%

I doubt either Ward or the Liberals will clear 35% and thus Labor may well have the preferences to sneak in

I take seat polls with a grain of salt, partly because of margin of error and sampling bias, but mainly because the ones conducting or publishing them will leak it when it suits their narrative and/or provokes a reaction.

The Libs getting 11%? That’s worse than what they get in Newtown or Balmain. I’m sure there’s lots of rusted-on Liberals in Kiama.

@ :), Illawarra observer, Adda, douglas, Mick, Ben raue et all: does anybody think that this late intervention by John Laws will make any difference?

@roger, I’ve missed any intervention by the golden microphone

You can tell psephology is male-dominated…