LIB 12.0%
Incumbent MP
Gareth Ward (Independent), since 2011.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
South coast. Kiama covers Kiama local government areas and parts of the neighbouring Shellharbour and Shoalhaven council areas, along with a small peripheral part of the City of Wollongong. The seat stretches from Albion Park in the north to Bomaderry in the south.
The current incarnation of the electoral district of Kiama has existed since 1981, and has always been won by the ALP. There was a previous single-member district of Kiama from 1859 to 1904.
Kiama was created at the 1981 election. Throughout the 1970s Kiama had been part of the district of Wollondilly. The first member for Kiama was the ALP’s Bill Knott. Knott had been elected Member for Wollondilly in 1978. He moved to Kiama in 1981 and was re-elected in 1984. He retired on medical grounds in 1986.
The 1986 by-election was won by the Labor candidate, Shellharbour mayor Bob Harrison. He won re-election in 1991 and 1995, retiring in 1999.
Kiama was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Matt Brown. Brown was appointed a minister following the 2007 election. In September 2008, he was appointed Minister for Police in the first cabinet under new Premier Nathan Rees. Three days later he was forced to resign after revelations of his conduct at a party in his office. He returned to the backbench after his resignation.
At the 2011 election, Brown lost Kiama to Liberal candidate Gareth Ward with a 19.4% swing. Ward was re-elected in 2015 and 2019. Ward was appointed as a parliamentary secretary in 2015 and joined the ministry in 2019.
In 2021, Ward was identified as the subject of an investigation by the child abuse and sex crimes squad of the NSW Police. Ward moved to the crossbench at this time. Ward was charged with a number of offences in 2022.
Assessment
Kiama is difficult to pick. The sitting MP is contesting the seat as an independent. While he may have been affected by the allegations which triggered his move to the crossbench, he may well still have a personal vote from holding his seat for twelve years and apparently still maintains support in the local Liberal branches.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gareth Ward | Liberal | 26,230 | 53.6 | +2.0 |
| Andy Higgins | Labor | 13,803 | 28.2 | -3.9 |
| Nina Digiglio | Greens | 5,815 | 11.9 | +0.8 |
| John Kadwell | Christian Democrats | 1,671 | 3.4 | +0.3 |
| Anne Whatman | Sustainable Australia | 1,427 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Informal | 1,603 | 3.2 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gareth Ward | Liberal | 28,016 | 62.0 | +3.4 |
| Andy Higgins | Labor | 17,167 | 38.0 | -3.4 |
Booths in Kiama have been split into three parts according to local government boundaries: Albion Park (covering Shellharbour council area booths), Kiama and Shoalhaven.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three electorates, ranging from 53% in Albion Park to 67% in Shoalhaven.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.8% in Albion Park to 14.9% in Kiama.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Shoalhaven | 14.1 | 67.3 | 11,092 | 22.7 |
| Kiama | 14.9 | 61.6 | 7,702 | 15.7 |
| Albion Park | 8.8 | 53.2 | 6,447 | 13.2 |
| Pre-poll | 9.2 | 63.1 | 16,278 | 33.3 |
| Other votes | 14.0 | 59.6 | 7,427 | 15.2 |
Election results in Kiama at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
is the south coast candadate Sickora party of wards faction i know ward singled him out along with hancock and harwin for thanks in his first speech but hancock praised gibbens in her validictory
@aaron gibbons was a former mp who lost preselection and so they chose her because they couldnt find any candidates at a local level besides one who was a vocal supporter of gareth ward so they had no choice but to parachute her in. gareth ward has firmed as the frontrunner and id expect to retain the seat
Ben, the Liberal voters don’t have to preference Labor. Just exhausting will split the right wing vote. And even though Greens have the strongest preference flows to Labor of any party there’s still a large share of them that exhaust.
Aaron I am very tolerant of different views on this blog. I cannot follow what you are complaining about, care to spell it out?
Obviously the Liberals think they can hold because AEF projection website has the Libs ahead here as well, and have Ward in 3rd place. Sportsbet also have this Labor vs Liberal. Because of OPV, Labor would be favored because Ward’s preferences would exhaust. This could cause an easy Labor win here.
If Gibbons wins, she should resign and trigger a by-election if Ward is proven not-guilty. Because Ward is a local and Gibbons is not. and the Libs don’t want Ward right now because he has not been acquitted.
Ben, I think Aaron is asking whether South Coast Liberal candidate Luke Sikora is from Gareth Ward’s faction or not.
@ Daniel t ward would be better served running for federal parliament in that case. Or seeking preselection at next election as forcing a by-election simply to change members is risky
I think both major parties will likely issue a 1-only HTV in Kiama and recommend voters exhaust their preferences. For the Liberals, preferencing Labor can help Labor win the seat, preferencing Ward will leave it vulnerable to attacks from Labor saying it stand with perpetrators of sexual assault. Therefore, the only option for the Liberals is to recommend its voters to exhaust preferences. For Labor, Labor has ruled out preferencing Ward. Labor is also not likely to preference the Liberals either, because a Liberal win will make it much more difficult for Labor to gain the seat in the future than if Ward is re-elected. Therefore, Labor will also likely recommend its voters to exhaust preferences.
However, many Labor voters may tactically preference Ward to make the Coalition win one less seat and have one less MP it can rely on for confidence and supply (Perrottet has said the Coalition would support a motion to suspend him again in the new Parliament if he’s re-elected until his criminal charges are resolved). They may also do so in the hope that Ward may retire, resign or be disqualified (if he is convicted and sentenced to more than five years in jail) after being re-elected, opening an opportunity for Labor to gain the seat at a future election/by-election without having to overcome the personal vote of a sitting Liberal MP.
Gibbons wouldn’t have any personal vote however so I don’t buy the argument that argument. MP’s who move seats aren’t as strong as new fresh MP’s. She has baggage, and she would be seen as a Kristina Keneally or Warren Mundine. She won’t be re-elected in 2027 if she wins this time. People want locals, the betting markets and the prediction site is simply wrong.
She should have accepted pre-selection defeat and moved on. I can’t think of one good thing she has done in the NSW parliament. and I tune in allot to politics in other states.
The only other reason I can think of why the premier wants Gibbons here is because he wants more women candidates. But in reality it should be based on merit, not this quota stuff. This is why people vote One Nation and other small conservative parties. They are turning into Labor and the Greens with this vetting process. (But not as bad yet)
@Joseph labor loses nothing by preferencing liberals as they are likely to finish second and therefore the vote will have rd leave them. If they finish 3rd well it won’t matter will it
Either way this will be one to watch
@ Daniel t agreed I don’t care if my local candidate is a man or woman. I don’t think the average voter does either. Labor and greens voters may care whether liberals preselect women or men but let’s face it they’re not voting for us anyway. Should always be merit based. People want candidates who can represent them not just someone who’s got the right appendage or lack of.
i was asking is sickora still part of wards liberal faction he has a lot of influence in the yung liberals especialy the university liberal club and throzbey young liberals think he was one of the founders and has built a lot of branches in the aeria also was helped a lot buy faction leader former upper house mp Donn harwin think it was Wards numbers that helped hancock in2002 winn liberal preselection desbite being a independent cowncilor back then
“If Gibbons wins, she should resign and trigger a by-election if Ward is proven not-guilty. Because Ward is a local and Gibbons is not. and the Libs don’t want Ward right now because he has not been acquitted.”
@Daniel T
Absolute garbage Daniel. If the voters elect Melanie Gibbons then the mandate should be accepted. Gibbons would likely either move into the seat or atleast move close to it if she won for commuting purposes. I doubt very much Gibbons would resign forcing a by-election at tax payers expense regardless if Gareth Ward is acquitted. I could be wrong but because Ward has chosen to recontest his seat as independent it also means instant expulsion from the Liberal party.
You are also wrong if Gibbons wins she will lose the seat at the next election in 2027 because she is not a local. If Ward can’t win as independent this election I doubt he would contest the next one. Gibbons would have cemented herself into the seat by then. Your logic that she stands a better chance this election as a last minute canidate. Then the next election as a incumbent is pretty flawed.
I don’t agree, If she wins, she still isn’t a local and has no right to represent a community she has never lived in her life. I say 2027 because this in my view is a must-win for Labor. (Unless Ward wins because Labor can’t afford an extra seat for the coalition)
She will lose in 2027 because the government will be exhausted after 16 years just like the previous Labor government. And no state government in Australia in the last 50 years has lasted more than 16 years.
Coalition is not popular in NSW, and I would love to be proven wrong on election day.
“has no right to represent a community” – I dunno, being voted in by the people of that electorate probably does give her that right.
@daniel t they however wont. it will be a labor minority governemnt. i dont know why theyd want to win it to be honest because whoever wins this election will not win the next one
so most people think labor will winnbased on ward falling short as no body wil preferents him Gibbins has been a mp for 12 years dont know what she has achieved for her seat and her partner is a suverlind shier cowncilor kent johns and was afactional leader in the shier also is gibbins realy comited to the seat she tried to run for hughes in federal politics but would have lost a preselection due to local faction leaders mark speakman and lea evans backing jenney were this is her third triyfirst lost holesworvy vote then lost upper house preselection now parashuted in kiama
Some value bets to be had. Sportsbet has Coalition at 1.75 Ward at 2.75 and Labor at 6.00. Tough ask for Labor to win this one but those odds would seem to be out of whack.
id say he’ll finish top 2 to begin with if he can maintain his base and win over disaffected voters he’ll win
can any locals explain whiy Ward is so popular hegot funding to fix princess highway but even if he is re elected this time he will not be able to do much until the court case as he is band from parliament gibbens seems a last minute pick
Its was reported in the Dailey Telegraph that the Liberals will be putting ‘Just vote 1’ on their how to vote cards. Some Liberals reportedly are privately concerned with a high profile candidate such Melanie Gibbons standing in this seat. It could split the conservative vote and hand the seat to Labor.
The Liberals decision not allocate a preference may hurt Gareth Ward more then it hurts Labor. Minor parties and independents generally rely on preferences more then the major parties.
Some Liberals were last week concerned that having a strong candidate such as Ms Gibbons would split the conservative vote, allowing Labor to come up the middle.
Ms Gibbons, who counts Mr Ward as a friend, said she would not be swapping preferences with Mr Ward, and the NSW Liberal Party office confirmed it would be pushing a “just vote 1 in Kiama” message.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/state-election/melanie-gibbons-nominates-for-kiama-in-lastditch-bid-to-save-her-political-career/news-story/08c1cf36b3942082f4e9471de8a611fd
@aaron actually the order banning him expired when the parliament did. The new parliament would have to ban him again. Though I expect that to be resolved before parliament meets
Draw here is interesting sustainables, green, lib, ward, labor. It’s a small ballot and so will make preferencing easy despite how to votes. I think there will be more preferencing here than elsewhere and final count will be between McInerney/Ward. Ward inspires a lot of loyalty and a lot of loathing. Extraordinarily endless pictures of Ward with young children on his campaign sites but not at schools as parliament has banned him from there. Liberals voters probably will not preference ward because why not just go straight to him. McInerney should win?
@roger. party loyalty is a powerful thing. and putting labor last is the motto
is gibbins a high profile candadate though she has been a back bencher forall her corear she was a parlimentary seecretary under gladis butshe originaly wanted to switch to federal politics in hughes but the moderit faction local mps speakman and evans did not want her backingcurrent mp jenny were so she had to pull out as she couldnot win a vote then she lost in holesworvy as well as upper house
dought Gibbins will do very well it will between labor and Ward given no one will recommend preferntsing ward laboor will winn on preferntsis
@aaron just because noones preferencing him doesn’t mean they won’t labor will be hard pressed to win as liberal voters will either pvote for him or give him preferences as this is a high profile seat now and they know he’s basically a liberal candidate that the party won’t back it will be interesting il give you that much
sportsbet have suspended betting on gareth ward in kiama
@Ben A Liberal win in Kiama will give the Coalition one more seat in Parliament and one more MP to rely on for confidence and supply compared to a victory for Ward. This means Labor voters preferencing the Liberals will make it easier for the Coalition to form government, while preferencing Ward will make it more difficult for the Coalition to form government. This applies to both the 25 March 2023 state election and any future state elections.
@Joseph if hes proven innocent he’ll be welcomed back. if hes gulty well that wont be a problem beccuase itll force a byelection either way the liberals wn
Greens recommending preferences to Labor. I think the seat is going to be closer than people think – and it won’t be a Liberal/Ward contest in my book…just the feel on the ground – Katelin McInerney has lived her whole life in Kiama and thats a big plus here.
@illawarra obviously the liberals will be splitting wards vote. and yes greens always preference labor no nothing new there.
Spoken to locals down there and they’ve told me that Katelin McInerney isn’t really a local. Allegedly she only spent her early years in Kiama and has only moved revelry to contest the election. From my own research she appears to just be another faceless union organiser put up by the ALP, just like Andy Higgins before her in 2019.
Katelin went to primary and high school here and represented Kiama in sport, including Kiama Downs Surf Club. You need new “locals” to get your information from.
@ Illawarra. So how does going to school here making her qualified to be in parliament? She’s just another union organiser calling in a favor from labor to benefit herself.
I suggest you at the least begin to consult locals on this. Your comments are essentially copy-pasted of the candidate statement from the ALP website. Would appreciate a more insightful analysis, than simply regurgitating a candidate statement. There’s no evidence or photos of her involvement in the community except for recently with the lead-up to the election.
Hi Austi. I live here. I talk to locals everyday. Gareth lives in Potts Point and Melanie in Woronora. Just because you don’t like what I’m saying, doesn’t mean it is party political.
Smiley. What makes anyone qualified to run for parliament? Why is being a political staffer or lifelong politician like Gareth more important than being a journalist, teacher, union organiser or business owner?
And, for the record and transparency, I am not a member of any political party. Just a local interested in politics who got to know Katelin from her music teaching at the school my children go to. I’ve had a mix of interactions with Gareth and hold nothing against him. And I’ve never seen Ms Gibbons in town. The contest will come down to Gareth and Katelin.
@illawarra your previous comments were exactly the same points as the candidate statement on the ALP website. Are you seriously saying Gareth isn’t a local? I suspect you’ll be sending your resume to the local circus, with ‘clown’ listed as an area which you have a a great deal of experience.
Gareth lives here part time. Which is more than you do and less than I do. You know that you’ve lost an argument when you get personal like you did. Have a good night.
@ilawarra nothing but just because she went to school in kiama doesnt mean you should ekect her. i made the same point when a certain independant candidates volunteer tried to use that to effectively harass voters who i wont name for obvious reasons. obviously you gavent seen her because she was a last minute pick and “town” is a loose term its obviously not the only place in the electorate and unless you are everywhere in town at every point its hard for you to randomly bump into her. also in relation to my previous statement abut the independant candidate ive never seen them nit ince in my 17 years of living here yet i seem to run into the sitting member alot
For electoral reasons it makes sense for Labor and Greens voters to preference Ward over Liberals, but it is a tough ask and the parties would look horrible doing it on their HTVs.
I see that we’ve arrived at the “faceless union organiser” and “parachuted candidate” point of the discussion. Onwards and upwards people!!
With regards to preferences, I would have thought that (putting aside the pending charges against Ward) Labor/Green voters would be indifferent once the Labor candidate is eliminated from the 2CP count. Surely Labor is issuing vote 1 handouts and the Greens would have Gibbons 4 and Ward 5.
If people are not voting for Gareth due to his charges, I would also assume he’ll get preferenced last wherever they are filling out 1 to 5.
It will be a fascinating count to watch
@darren i dont know about you but im excited for next saturday night
Ha all these comments confirm my view that Ward inspires loyalty and loathing. HTV are out & Labor & greens are preferencing Libs over Ward. Labor & greens are swapping preferences. Libs are saying just vote 1. As I noted on a small ballot paper it won’t be difficult to preference if you want despite HTV. Most comments ignore that on federal result this seat is a comfortable labor win. Delusional to think that McInerney won’t finish in top 2. Only polling being done in Kiama is labor & McInerney is increasing tempo & getting promises from Minns – so work it out. Ward has gone quiet last three days – amazing for him. Perhaps he realises the football children photo is hurting him badly?
wonder whiy this Ward suporter is not poasting using there name both perrottit and Minns have made it clear that the order baning him will be exttendid if he is re elected now the ward camp are claiming labors candadate is not a local desbite serving on local cowncil i dont know ward but he wasis a corear politician was even featured in the monthly back in 2005
not from the aria but liberal paul ell is currently sholhavin deputy mayor andreplaced butler wouldnt he have some influence on fixing ishues as would the other local libs linked to the mp nsw liberal state egzecutive member
well constence who wasthe mp from begahad family conections but actualy lived all his life insydney before being parashuted tothe seat butler is running in neibering southn coast not hear whats worse yungliberal al faction leader or union oficial