LIB 12.0%
Incumbent MP
Gareth Ward (Independent), since 2011.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
South coast. Kiama covers Kiama local government areas and parts of the neighbouring Shellharbour and Shoalhaven council areas, along with a small peripheral part of the City of Wollongong. The seat stretches from Albion Park in the north to Bomaderry in the south.
The current incarnation of the electoral district of Kiama has existed since 1981, and has always been won by the ALP. There was a previous single-member district of Kiama from 1859 to 1904.
Kiama was created at the 1981 election. Throughout the 1970s Kiama had been part of the district of Wollondilly. The first member for Kiama was the ALP’s Bill Knott. Knott had been elected Member for Wollondilly in 1978. He moved to Kiama in 1981 and was re-elected in 1984. He retired on medical grounds in 1986.
The 1986 by-election was won by the Labor candidate, Shellharbour mayor Bob Harrison. He won re-election in 1991 and 1995, retiring in 1999.
Kiama was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Matt Brown. Brown was appointed a minister following the 2007 election. In September 2008, he was appointed Minister for Police in the first cabinet under new Premier Nathan Rees. Three days later he was forced to resign after revelations of his conduct at a party in his office. He returned to the backbench after his resignation.
At the 2011 election, Brown lost Kiama to Liberal candidate Gareth Ward with a 19.4% swing. Ward was re-elected in 2015 and 2019. Ward was appointed as a parliamentary secretary in 2015 and joined the ministry in 2019.
In 2021, Ward was identified as the subject of an investigation by the child abuse and sex crimes squad of the NSW Police. Ward moved to the crossbench at this time. Ward was charged with a number of offences in 2022.
Assessment
Kiama is difficult to pick. The sitting MP is contesting the seat as an independent. While he may have been affected by the allegations which triggered his move to the crossbench, he may well still have a personal vote from holding his seat for twelve years and apparently still maintains support in the local Liberal branches.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gareth Ward | Liberal | 26,230 | 53.6 | +2.0 |
| Andy Higgins | Labor | 13,803 | 28.2 | -3.9 |
| Nina Digiglio | Greens | 5,815 | 11.9 | +0.8 |
| John Kadwell | Christian Democrats | 1,671 | 3.4 | +0.3 |
| Anne Whatman | Sustainable Australia | 1,427 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Informal | 1,603 | 3.2 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gareth Ward | Liberal | 28,016 | 62.0 | +3.4 |
| Andy Higgins | Labor | 17,167 | 38.0 | -3.4 |
Booths in Kiama have been split into three parts according to local government boundaries: Albion Park (covering Shellharbour council area booths), Kiama and Shoalhaven.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three electorates, ranging from 53% in Albion Park to 67% in Shoalhaven.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.8% in Albion Park to 14.9% in Kiama.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Shoalhaven | 14.1 | 67.3 | 11,092 | 22.7 |
| Kiama | 14.9 | 61.6 | 7,702 | 15.7 |
| Albion Park | 8.8 | 53.2 | 6,447 | 13.2 |
| Pre-poll | 9.2 | 63.1 | 16,278 | 33.3 |
| Other votes | 14.0 | 59.6 | 7,427 | 15.2 |
Election results in Kiama at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
So Darren – your assessment of a politician’s individual popularity is to ignore election results.
Ok let’s just do paper scissor rock, or perhaps trail by configuration.
Ward has been an electoral dynamo. The proof – he has recorded significant (over 5%) swings to him when the statewide coalition vote went backwards in both ‘15 and ‘19.
He will obviously lose some vote this time. But to suggest that he comes 4th is absolutely crazy and flies in the face of what most locals are telling me.
There is a really good humble pie recipe which Mick Quinlivan has had to dig out a lot. Suggest you ask him for it.
Moderate you don’t understand. This election is anything but normal in Kiama. There is a general swing to Labor of approx 6 to 8% 2pp. In Kiama neither the libs or Mr Ward will get an absolute majority SO for either to win they need the others preferences. To preference each other is fraught with danger. Mr Ward is considered unfit to sit in parliament by his own side.. the coalition.. that is why he is suspended. FOR the liberals to accept his tainted vote or give him theirs is a big problem in terms of integrity…. it is no accident that they don’t have a candidate in Kiama but they must stand.. to not stand is the same as a preference swap. I am sure the voters in Kiama could not elect either Mr Ward or the yet to be announced liberal candidate. Examine my logic and you will see…. maybe…
Mick – even a broken clock is right twice a day. Let’s see how you go. Your previous form picking ALP wins in Kiama in 15 and 19 doesn’t bode well for optimal psephology!!
No.. but 2023 is very different. To 2019.and 2015. Mr Ward is no.longer a mp.in good standing
Also the liberals were not in a position of having bad choices what ever they did .irrespective. Of the accuracy of my predictions the liberal dilemma in Kiama still exists. And is a .question of moral integrity.
Sorry Mick, but your assessments of the seat have been proven wrong time and time again – wishful thinking isn’t enough to have an ALP win here.
As far as understanding the local sentiment, Moderate has you beaten here.
I repeat there is a moral issue here how can you deal with some one who.you consider is unfit to sit in parliament? Either passively or actively…. this is the liberal party’s no win delimma
This trumps any normal issue…
Mick – the fact you keep repeating it doesn’t make it right. We have agreed to disagree. Let’s just move on. And I won’t even mention your Kiama predictions 2011. 2015 and 2019.
This is probably the most interesting seat of the election, because it’s genuinely the first time I’ve sat down & am fully unable to even make an educated guess on what sort of primary Ward will get. 5% dud? a healthy 12%? 25-30ish% in a good position for preferences? This is clearly a Lib vs Ward contest in my opinion. I wonder if Libs will preference Ward considering his parli suspension.
I’ll throw my two cents in here. I was down here last month speaking to some locals and politics came up, as it does. The view was that they loved Gareth Ward but didn’t like Stephen Jones (they appeared at an event together apparently and Stephen was awkward, according to them). Yes, it’s a small group so make of it what you will. With the Liberals dragging their feet here, coupled with the above and anecdotal evidence from other posters, I really do believe Gareth can actually win this. I would have not thought that 2 months ago. IND Retain (The example of Troy Bell is a good case in point for here.)
Liberals have endorsed a well known Kiama local as their candidate, Gail Morgan.
https://gailmorganwriter.com/about/
Will the endorsed Liberal even recommend preferences to Ward? There’s a bad statewide headline if they do.
Maybe Ward will do an Aussie Cossack and quietly not nominate despite launching a campaign and purchasing materials.
It’s very hard to see the Liberals preferencing Ward although he will probably preference them. This Liberal candidate is well respected and you only have to read her CV to see that if the plan was to preference Ward then she would not be running?
Moderate: Re Ward’s popularity. Did you even take my advice and study the response he gets on social media especially his own tweeter? Just one “like” when he publishes a photo with himself and 10 other people in it? Seriously?
Has the Liberal Candidate actually nominated yet? There is chatter around that she hasnt done so….
@Illawarra Observer, nominations open today for all candidates so plenty of time to get a nomination in.
It was mentioned in a Fairfax article two days go that the Liberals hadn’t finalised candidates in 20 seats. This one was singled out as not being filled.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-liberals-race-to-find-candidates-for-almost-20-seats-20230224-p5cnda.html
Much afoot…
The Liberals are either running dead or treating it like a safe Liberal seat. Perhaps they foresee the competitiveness of Gareth Ward and Labor.
it seems most of the local liberals still back Ward he discribed luke sickora there candadate for south coast as his closist advisor and was very close to outgoing mp shelley Hancock and factional boss Donn harwin plus key ward allies are on the sholhavin cowncil including paul ell whoo heads the gillmore fec Ward also is a key faction leader in wolongong and has links with yung liberals i think the local liberals support him
It seems the liberals are dragging their feet here I’m guessing because at a grassroots level he still has support and if he’s found not guilty they would welcome him back. He seems to enjoy the support of his constituents and I think liberal voters will swing to him if not place him 2nd I’d gonna say ward will win if not come close. Seems no one mentioned his case at the local forum.
Melanie Gibbons
If ward is innocent I want him back as the member
Melanie Gibbons is being parachuted into Kiama the same mistake labour made when they parachuted Kristina Keneally into Fowler this is only going to help labour and Gareth ward in the seat of Kiama
@Ben most likely its because the local branch of liberals are in solidarity with Gareth Ward and the only candidate that nominated was a vocal supporter who was passed over. and they had to reopen nominations. at a local level ward enjoys support both in his party and in his community. they are hoping if and when he is proven innocent he will be welcomed back
I’m pretty sure this seat will be a contest between Ward and McInerney. The Liberals will finish 3rd or 4th with the way they have treated the local community in this process.
yes but ward still have the support of his close friend the out going south coast mp shelley hancock she made a big deal in her validictory speech saying liberals needid to save gibins her x staffer and close ward friend luke sickora is running in south cost
@observer most likely since liberal voters will stand behind ward. any that stay true to lberals will put him second no doubt this wil be ward retain
Living in the seat for the last 15 years, I can guarantee that although Mr Ward has many supporters, his support has definitely weakened in the last couple of years. He does have a cult like following in the local Liberal branches. If the Council elections and Federal vote is any indication he will need any wayward Lib preferences to crack 50%…his staffer and Liberal Party Director Mark Croxford only just got onto Council and the Council is now dominated by ALP/Greens and 2 ex ALP members including the former MP. He is the favourite but he wont win as convincingly this time around.
Council is different from government. I love in a conservative seat but we only have communists on council
is luke sickora the candadate in south coast still a close friend of Ward i know hancock one of Wards former closist friends made a big deal of how the liberals need to find a seat for Gibbens butWard singled out Seckora in his first speech Ward wanted his close allie and local cowncilor paul ell to run in golmore after he could not constence got installed buy morrison
i dont think most liberals will all stick behind ward not shore if she is active in local libs but the last liberal mp in gilmor did not like him as he wanted her federal seat
He should of run in 2019 when she retired.
he should of but didnt constence want the seat to there was rummers in 2018 that Constence wanted to move in to federal parliament but he denied it
Actually it was because scomo took over and tried to parachute that person against the local branch and the preselected member got shafted.
it walso because the then mp desided to resign because she feared Ward and his faction were triying to replace her
It’s reported in the Guardian that the Liberals are coming third via their internal polling. However, on Sportsbet they have listed the Liberals as favorites. Either Sportsbet research is wrong or they are on to something the media isn’t. Who knows? Coalition $1.75, Independent $3.00, Labor $5.50.
Ward still enjoys strong political support within the local Liberal party, whose own internal polling has shown it running a distant third behind Ward and the Labor candidate, former journalist and union organiser Katelin McInerney.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/08/nsw-election-2023-dumped-mp-melanie-gibbons-kiama-seat-former-minister-gareth-ward
@political sportsbet is purely based on where bets are coming in the more money for a particular choice the lower the odds gets its all it really is. im saying liberal polling is closer to accurate. remember that ward increased his margin against the swing in predominately labor areas via federal polls meaning his vote is influenced by personal vote which is clearly sticking with him.
These betting odds are clearly wrong… from what I am seeing I don’t think the liberals should be favourites.. Ward to liberals will be stronger than the reverse
Labor will be in the final 2.. I think.it likely that neither Ward nor the liberals will poll 50% so they need each other . To.run someone with no links to the electorate and the last minute suggests to me the liberals don’t expect or maybe even wish to win. Deals or implied deals with Mr Ward by the liberals are crazy
What will.Melanie do? Campaign?
If the liberals recommend vote 1 only or vote 1 lib 2 Ward.. will the the “rusted on” liberal voters take any notice?
.
What connections does Gibbons have to this seat? Have the Liberals learnt nothing from Mundine in Gilmore in 2019? The Liberals, (Who I will never vote for no matter how bad Labor is even though I don’t like the direction Labor are moving this country right now), Deserve to lose in a historic landslide because of stupid moves like this. I don’t understand anyone who would vote for an MP who was parachuted to another region for their own political bidding.
This happened in the UK quite a bit in the past, Mainly when the governing party was facing a landslide loss and MP’s would shift seats to save their careers (Notably 1997 UK) Do voters care anymore about representation or do they just want a rubber-stamp MP for the parties agenda instead of real representation?
Might as well have a presidential system at this point if this is what people are doing.
This seat is about 200km away from HOLSWORTHY, I hope Ward wins at this point if not Labor.
@Mick unlike labor voters liberal voters have a mind of their own and will vote for ward 2nd regardless of where he is on the recommended list. If not 1st.
@ Daniel they didn’t have a choice they only got one nomination and that was from a vocal supporter of wards as the rest of the locals are behind ward. Liberals will probly finish 3rd.
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The Liberal Party has thrown Gibbons in because they have no-one else to run and the nominations were closing. She put her hand up when no-one else would.
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I think the optics of the libs not running a candidate here would be worse than an out of towner running
Hawkeye this is your last warning, cut out the personal criticisms of other commenters. You can disagree with their comments without doing that. Do it again and I’ll just block you.
Ben, I agree we don’t want really nasty personal attacks on here. But surely it should be reasonable to make some reference to commenters who appear to be obviously trolling, or just making ridiculous claims trying to stir people up?
It does get a bit annoying reading post after post of “Party X is going to win every single seat!” and “I claim to support Party Y but everything I post is negative and critical of Party Y” over and over again on different threads.
Someone having bad opinions does not equal trolling. I’ve drawn a line.
“unlike labor voters liberal voters have a mind of their own and will vote for ward 2nd regardless of where he is on the recommended list.”
@Ben
Your comment is kind of dumb and very condescending. You have provided no evidence that Liberal voters are less likely to stick to the how to vote cards then Labor voters. The suggestion Labor voters don’t have a mind of their own provides no analysis and just the type of Liberal cheerleading nonsense we can expect from you.
Melanie Gibbons was asked about a prefernce deal with Gareth Ward. But didn’t completely rule it out suggesting the decision belongs to Liberal party head office. Dominic Perrottet did rule out forming government with Ward though along with Chris Minns during the debate should Ward be elected.
Evidence from federal elections is that Liberal voters are far more likely to follow HTVs than some other parties.
And there’s also evidence from state elections that Labor and Coalition voters have very low rates of marking preferences. More generally there’s a reason to think minor party voters are “trained” over time to mark preferences. If Liberal voters don’t normally get asked to preference, I reckon there’ll be a lot less of them who bother to preference Ward.
@political. So would minns. Labor have shown time and again they will do a deal with the devil. To get in power.
@raue I mean generally yes but they wouldn’t prefer labor over ward. Locally left voters always follow the line to get rid of the conservative member by preference the ind as a means of getting rid of them
i know the owner of this blog is a former greens member but dont that there dislike of nsw labor we are all intitled to our views but though t the greens would prefer labor over liberal party it is not a good look gibbens being parashutedd in from the shier probaly just to atempt to help Ward winn dought gibbensswants to winn but the premier was determind she runs somewhere as he is a friend of hers
as the local liberals in the seat mostly back ward the only reason gibbins is running seems to be she wants the pay out similar to a one nation candadate who runfor senit she has been in parliament since 2011 and cant think of any thing shes achieved she was never a minister